User:SandyGeorgia/ArbVotes2011/Guides

Summary of the 2011 ArbCom election guides of the writers who best predicted 2010 success (see User:SandyGeorgia/ArbVotes2010/Guides).

Recommendations

In the following chart:

• A Y means the guide writer supports the candidate,
• A N means they oppose the candidate.
• A means they stated no view, or were neutral.

See also: User:John Vandenberg/ACE/2011 guides

If the guide writers with a good record in past elections are right this year, we may have seven arbs, and the eighth slot may be a tossup between Coren, Jclemens, and Worm That Turned, if one of them stays above 50% (none of these guide writers endorsed any of them).

Candidate	Ealdgyth	Nuclear Warfare	Sandy Georgia	Wizard man	Adjusted Supports *	Actual % Received
Courcelles	Y	Y	Y	Y	4	79.74%
Risker	Y	Y	Y	Y	4	75.66%
SilkTork	Y	Y	Y	Y	4	70.87%
AGK	Y	Y		Y	3.5	70.81%
Roger Davies		Y	Y	Y	3.5	72.06%
Hersfold		Y		Y	3	71.84%
Kirill Lokshin		N	Y	Y	2.5	72.51%
Coren			N	N	1	56.01%
Jclemens		N		N	1	60.54%
Worm That Turned	N		N		1	59.03%
Panyd	N	N	N		.5	43.19%
Eluchil404	N		N	N	.5	29.62%
Kww	N		N	N	.5	38.34%
DeltaQuad	N	N	N	N	0	34.04%
Geni	N	N	N	N	0	27.91%
Hot Stop	N	N	N	N	0	12.47%
NWA.Rep	N	N	N	N	0	16.04%
Number of Supports	4	6	5	7	5.5 avg supports

• Adjusted to: 1 for Support, .5 for neutral, 0 for Oppose

Accuracy

In the following chart:

• A Y means they supported a candidate who was elected or opposed a candidate who was not elected
• A N means they opposed a candidate who was elected or supported a candidate who was not elected
• A means they stated no view, or were neutral.

User:HJ Mitchell/ACE2011 was added to the accuracy chart, as he also pegged it.

Candidate	Ealdgyth	Nuclear Warfare	Sandy Georgia	Wizard man	HJ Mitchell	Actual % Received
Courcelles	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	79.74%
Risker	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	75.66%
SilkTork	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	70.87%
AGK	Y	Y		Y	Y	70.81%
Roger Davies		Y	Y	Y	Y	72.06%
Hersfold		Y		Y	Y	71.84%
Kirill Lokshin		N	Y	Y		72.51%
Coren			Y	Y	Y	56.01%
Jclemens		N		N	Y	60.54%
Worm That Turned	Y		Y			59.03%
Panyd	Y	Y	Y			43.19%
Eluchil404	Y		Y	Y	Y	29.62%
Kww	Y		Y	Y	Y	38.34%
DeltaQuad	Y	Y	Y	Y		34.04%
Geni	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	27.91%
Hot Stop	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	12.47%
NWA.Rep	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	16.04%
Correct/Wrong/Neutral	12/0/5	11/2/4	14/0/3	14/1/2	13/0/4