User:SandyGeorgia/ArbVotes2010/Guides

Guide writer's views

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My (SandyGeorgia's) summary of the most helpful ArbCom election guides.

In the following chart:

  • A  Y means the guide writer supports the candidate,
  • A  N means they oppose the candidate.
  • A grey dot means they stated no view, or were neutral.

So this table is a guide to the guidewriter's views

Candidate Ealdgyth . . Lar . . MastCell Ncm
vocalist
Nuclear
Warfare
Sandy
Georgia
Short
Brigade
Harvester
Boris
Wizard
man
Number of
Supports
Actual %
Received
Casliber  Y  N  Y    Y  Y  Y  Y 6 78.73%
Chase me ladies, I'm the Cavalry  N  N  N      N  N  Y 1 60.61%
David Fuchs  Y  Y  Y    Y  Y  Y  Y 7 62.88%
Elen of the Roads  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  N   6 72.57%
FT2  N  N  N  N  Y  N  N  N 1 42.13%
Georgewilliamherbert  N  N  Y    Y  N    Y 3 44.26%
GiacomoReturned  Y  Y  Y  Y  N  Y  Y   6 40.77%
Harej  N  Y  N      N  N  Y 2 44.62%
Iridescent  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y 8 74.04%
Jclemens    Y  N    N  Y  N  N 2 56.71%
John Vandenberg  N  N  N  Y  N  N  N   1 57.73%
Newyorkbrad  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y 7 89.01%
Off2riorob  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N 0 16.87%
PhilKnight  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  N    Y 5 60.38%
Sandstein  N  N  Y  N  N  N  N  N 1 51.30%
Shell Kinney    N  Y  N  Y  N  N  N 2 56.70%
SirFozzie  Y  Y      Y  Y  N  Y 5 78.45%
Stephen Bain    N  N    N  N  N  N 0 45.54%
Xeno  N  Y    N  N  N  N  N 1 70.64%
Number of
Supports
8 8 10 6 10 8 5 9 Avg 8
candidates
supported
N/A

Guide writer's outcomes, neutral penalized

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Next, an analysis by Lar.

In the following chart/analysis:

  • A  Y means that the guide writer supported a candidate who won, or opposed a candidate who lost
  • A  N means that the guide writer supported a candidate who lost, or opposed a candidate who won.
  • A  N is also given if the guide writer either had no opinion or was neutral

In THIS analysis, overall predictive capability is what is being measured, and hanging back is negative.


Candidate Ealdgyth . . Lar . . MastCell Ncm
vocalist
Nuclear
Warfare
Sandy
Georgia
Short
Brigade
Harvester
Boris
Wizard
man
Number
"correct"
by cand
Actual %
Received
Casliber  Y  N  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  Y 6 78.73%
Chase me ladies, I'm the Cavalry  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  Y 1 60.61%
David Fuchs  Y  Y  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  Y 7 62.88%
Elen of the Roads  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  N  N 6 72.57%
FT2  Y  Y  Y  Y  N  Y  Y  Y 7 42.13%
Georgewilliamherbert  Y  Y  N  N  N  Y  N  N 3 44.26%
GiacomoReturned  N  N  N  N  Y  N  N  N 1 40.77%
Harej  Y  N  Y  N  N  Y  Y  N 4 44.62%
Iridescent  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y 8 74.04%
Jclemens  N  Y  N  N  N  Y  N  N 2 56.71%
John Vandenberg  N  N  N  Y  N  N  N  N 1 57.73%
Newyorkbrad  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y 7 89.01%
Off2riorob  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y 8 16.87%
PhilKnight  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  N  N  Y 5 60.38%
Sandstein  Y  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y 7 51.30%
Shell Kinney  N  N  Y  N  Y  N  N  N 2 56.70%
SirFozzie  Y  Y  N  N  Y  Y  N  Y 5 78.45%
Stephen Bain  N  Y  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  Y 6 45.54%
Xeno  N  Y  N  N  N  N  N  N 1 70.64%
Number
"Correct"
by writer
12 11 11 8 12 13 9 11 Avg 10.75
cand (by wr)
correct
N/A

Guide writers outcomes, neutral discarded

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Finally, an analysis by Ncmvocalist.

In this analysis/chart

  • A  Y means that the guide writer supported a candidate who won, or opposed a candidate who lost
  • A  N means that the guide writer supported a candidate who lost, or opposed a candidate who won.

HOWEVER, in this analysis, there is no penalty for hanging back or being neutral (denoted with a gray dot), and the calculations in this case only measure accuracy when an opinion was given.

Candidate Ealdgyth . . Lar . . MastCell Ncm
vocalist
Nuclear
Warfare
Sandy
Georgia
Short
Brigade
Harvester
Boris
Wizard
man
Number
"correct"
by cand
Actual %
Received
Casliber  Y  N  Y    Y  Y  Y  Y 6/7 78.73%
Chase me ladies, I'm the Cavalry  N  N  N      N  N  Y 1/6 60.61%
David Fuchs  Y  Y  Y    Y  Y  Y  Y 7/7 62.88%
Elen of the Roads  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  N   6/7 72.57%
FT2  Y  Y  Y  Y  N  Y  Y  Y 7/8 42.13%
Georgewilliamherbert  Y  Y  N    N  Y    N 3/6 44.26%
GiacomoReturned  N  N  N  N  Y  N  N   1/7 40.77%
Harej  Y  N  Y      Y  Y  N 4/6 44.62%
Iridescent  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y 8/8 74.04%
Jclemens    Y  N    N  Y  N  N 2/6 56.71%
John Vandenberg  N  N  N  Y  N  N  N   1/7 57.73%
Newyorkbrad  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y 7/8 89.01%
Off2riorob  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y 8/8 16.87%
PhilKnight  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  N    Y 5/7 60.38%
Sandstein  Y  Y  N  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y 7/8 51.30%
Shell Kinney    N  Y  N  Y  N  N  N 2/7 56.70%
SirFozzie  Y  Y      Y  Y  N  Y 5/6 78.45%
Stephen Bain    Y  Y    Y  Y  Y  Y 6/6 45.54%
Xeno  N  Y    N  N  N  N  N 1/7 70.64%
Number
"Correct"
by writer
12/16 11/19 11/17 8/11 12/17 13/19 9/17 11/16 Avg 10.75
cand (by wr)
correct
N/A