Talk:Endemic (epidemiology)

Latest comment: 1 year ago by Crossroads in topic What people say is not biomedical information

Article should compare several definitions of the word endemic

edit

The article should be rewritten to compare several definitions of the word endemic

  • A disease is endemic if R*S=1 (Endemic steady state)
  • A disease is endemic to an area if it survives within the area without relying on receiving new infected people (and variants) from the outside.
  • A disease is endemic if it has regular outbreaks

Note that influenza is not endemic according to the first two definitions, but it is still often described as an endemic disease. Therefore the third definition is needed

Note that a disease in the endemic steady state cannot have seasonal variations, so this requirement is very strict.

enzootic

edit

The article Strangles links this page for the word enzootic, apparently meaning "endemic" but for people. This word/meaning should be noted.Wakablogger2 (talk) 22:34, 21 August 2009 (UTC)Reply

Wikidata list of endemic diseases and subclasses of them

edit

Most forms of turberculoses are currently included in the following list - but are all of them endemic?

Please enter correct data in these Wikidata items. Some columns of the following auto-generated list can be useful in various language versions of this article. The content may also affect the content of a future Wikidata based infoboxes. Tomastvivlaren (talk) 16:41, 22 March 2020 (UTC)Reply

{{Wikidata list}}

Wikidata item Pandemic Start date End date Number of deaths Number of infected Description Medical state Cause Direct cause Part of Instance of Subclass of Symptoms Country of origin Map
Q548165 Ghon focus primary tuberculosis
pulmonary tuberculosis


Q1040214 Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis multidrug-resistant tuberculosis


Q1166500 intestinal tuberculosis gastrointestinal tuberculosis[1]
intestinal disease[1]
gastrointestinal bleeding[1]
nausea[1]
bleeding[1]
vomiting[1]


Q3267710 Lupus vulgaris cutaneous tuberculosis


Q3604586 papulonecrotic tuberculid cutaneous tuberculosis
Tuberculid


Q3624458 tuberculous arthritis septic arthritis
osteoarticular tuberculosis


Q3851642 breast tuberculosis extrapulmonary tuberculosis
breast disease


Q4000120 post-primary tuberculosis tuberculosis
relapse


Q4000121 tonsillar tuberculosis tonsillitis
extrapulmonary tuberculosis


Q4254929 Latent tuberculosis tuberculosis
latent infection


Q6137194 Netter and Musset syndrome female genital tuberculosis


Q6153637 osteoarticular tuberculosis extrapulmonary tuberculosis[1]
bone disease[1]


Q6543213 Lichen scrofulosorum cutaneous tuberculosis
Tuberculid


Q7243141 Primary inoculation tuberculosis cutaneous tuberculosis


Q7250563 Prosector's wart occupational disease
cutaneous tuberculosis


Q7323489 Rich focus tuberculoma
central nervous system tuberculosis


Q7439268 scrofuloderma lymph node tuberculosis
cutaneous tuberculosis


Q7828253 Totally drug-resistant tuberculosis Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis


Q7850836 Tuberculid skin disease
cutaneous tuberculosis


Q7850844 tuberculosis cutis orificialis cutaneous tuberculosis


Q7850852 Tuberculous gumma cutaneous tuberculosis


Q7850854 tuberculous lymphadenitis lymphadenopathy
extrapulmonary tuberculosis
lymphadenitis


Q12074859 infiltrative tuberculosis pulmonary tuberculosis


Q12090031 focal tuberculosis tuberculosis


Q12794230 cutaneous tuberculosis extrapulmonary tuberculosis
bacterial skin disease


Q16360163 osseous tuberculosis osteoarticular tuberculosis
bone inflammation disease


Q17014545 Tuberculosis in relation to HIV AIDS related disease
tuberculosis


Q17632129 ocular tuberculosis extrapulmonary tuberculosis
eye disease[1]
tuberculosis[1]


Q18467212 Infantile tuberculosis tuberculosis


Q18553225 tuberculous salpingitis urogenital tuberculosis[1]
fallopian tube disease[1]
female genital tuberculosis


Q18553245 Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever infection Kyasanur forest disease[1] thrombocytopenia[1]
arthralgia[1]
vomiting[1]


Q18554175 phthisical cornea corneal degeneration[1]
tuberculosis


Q18554329 tuberculous epididymitis urogenital tuberculosis[1]
male genital tuberculosis
epididymis disease[1]


Q18555012 tuberculous oophoritis urogenital tuberculosis[1]
oophoritis
ovarian disease[1]
female genital tuberculosis


Q18558155 tuberculous pneumothorax tuberculosis
pneumothorax[1]


Q18924570 cervix tuberculosis female genital tuberculosis
cervix disease


Q18928085 tuberculous encephalitis central nervous system tuberculosis


Q18928327 obsolete bronchial tuberculosis tuberculosis


Q18928343 tuberculous mesenteric gland abdominal tuberculosis


Q18928387 yellow fever hepatitis yellow fever


Q18966239 Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense infectious disease Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense African trypanosomiasis


Q18966240 Trypanosoma brucei gambiense infectious disease Trypanosoma brucei African trypanosomiasis


Q18966256 primary tuberculosis tuberculosis
primary affect


Q18966257 tuberculous myelitis central nervous system tuberculosis
myelitis


Q18966491 nodular lung tuberculosis pulmonary tuberculosis


Q18966880 intrathoracic lymph node tuberculosis lymph node tuberculosis


Q18967082 infiltrative lung tuberculosis interstitial lung disease
pulmonary tuberculosis


Q18967303 thyroid gland tuberculosis thyroid gland disease
endocrine tuberculosis


Q18967464 tuberculous lung fibrosis tuberculosis
pulmonary fibrosis


Q18967471 female genital tuberculosis female reproductive system disease
urogenital tuberculosis


Q18967769 endocrine tuberculosis extrapulmonary tuberculosis
endocrine infection


Q18968227 tracheal tuberculosis obsolete bronchial tuberculosis
tracheal disease


Q18975183 ear tuberculosis extrapulmonary tuberculosis
ear disease


Q18975729 tuberculous ascites abdominal tuberculosis
ascites


Q18975749 cardiovascular tuberculosis extrapulmonary tuberculosis
cardiovascular disease


Q19000641 tuberculous lung cavity pulmonary tuberculosis
cavitary pneumonia


Q19001042 male genital tuberculosis urogenital tuberculosis
male reproductive system disease


Q19001181 tuberculous pneumonia pulmonary tuberculosis
bacterial pneumonia


Q19001209 tuberculous erythema nodosum erythema nodosum
cutaneous tuberculosis


Q19001246 peripheral lymph node tuberculosis lymph node tuberculosis


Q19001346 tuberculous bronchiectasis bronchiectasis
tuberculosis


Q19001376 urinary tuberculosis urogenital tuberculosis
urinary system disease


Q26695325 cardiac tuberculosis tuberculosis[1]
cardiovascular tuberculosis
heart disease[1]


Q55009294 tracheobronchial tuberculosis obsolete bronchial tuberculosis


Q68882216 King's Evil lymph node tuberculosis


Q69090928 intracranial tuberculoma tuberculoma
central nervous system tuberculosis


Q2086658 Ghon's complex clinical sign Ghon focus


Q733616 Erythema induratum disease panniculitis
cutaneous tuberculosis


Q3541798 Tuberculosis of the adrenal glands infection disease adrenal gland disease
endocrine tuberculosis


Q3542008 osteoarticular tuberculosis of the knee disease osteoarticular tuberculosis
knee disorder


Q7520132 Simon focus disease pulmonary tuberculosis


Q7850851 Tuberculous cellulitis disease cutaneous tuberculosis
cellulitis


Q13046587 pulmonary tuberculosis disease[1]
infectious disease[2]
lung disease[2][1]
tuberculosis[1]
pleural effusion[1]


Q18553330 extrapulmonary tuberculosis disease[1][2] tuberculosis[1]


Q18553331 abdominal tuberculosis disease[1][2] extrapulmonary tuberculosis[2][1]


Q18556156 oral tuberculosis disease[1]
infectious disease[2]
gastrointestinal tuberculosis[2][1]
mouth disease[2][1]


Q18558100 splenic tuberculosis disease[1]
infectious disease[2]
splenic disease[1]
abdominal tuberculosis[1]
abscess[1]


Q24975389 Tuberculous dactylitis disease osteoarticular tuberculosis


Q55093324 silicotuberculosis disease tuberculosis
silicosis


Q7850846 tuberculosis in India disease by country or region tuberculosis


Q12156 malaria Plasmodium falciparum
Plasmodium vivax
Plasmodium malariae
Plasmodium ovale
Plasmodium
Plasmodium knowlesi
endemic disease[3] parasitic protozoa infectious disease[1]
vector-borne disease
intermittent fever
periodic fever
hepatomegaly
anemia
splenomegaly
jaundice
coma
chills[1]


Q12199 HIV/AIDS 1959 HIV[4] endemic disease[5]
syndrome
pandemic
human immunodeficiency virus infectious disease[1]
acquired immunodeficiency
fever[6]
lymphadenopathy[6]
diarrhea[6]
lethargy[6]
weight loss[6]


Q331283 leishmaniasis Leishmania
Leishmania donovani
Leishmania infantum
Leishmania braziliensis
Leishmania mexicana
Leishmania major
Leishmania tropica
endemic disease parasitic protozoa infectious disease[1]
vector-borne disease
ulcer
mouth ulcer
fever
splenomegaly
anemia
hepatomegaly


Q17583 miliary tuberculosis infectious disease[2] extrapulmonary tuberculosis[1]


Q154874 yellow fever yellow fever virus infectious disease[2]
endemic disease[7]
rare skin disease[2]
arbovirosis[2]
skin infection[2]
flavivirus infectious disease
viral infectious disease[1]
endemic disease[7]
fever[6][8][9]
bradycardia[6]
fatigue[6]
headache[6][8]
vomiting[6]
cyanosis[6]
jaundice[1]
Faget sign
chills
arthralgia
anorexia
hyperaemia
swelling
tachycardia
Ferrari sign
melena
hypotension
hepatomegaly
splenomegaly
oliguria
anuria
encephalitis
bleeding[1]


Q160649 typhus Rickettsia infectious disease[2]
endemic disease
primary bacterial infectious disease[1]
rickettsiosis


Q203133 African trypanosomiasis Trypanosoma brucei
Trypanosoma brucei gambiense
Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense
infectious disease trypanosomiasis[1]
neglected tropical disease
endemic disease[10]
vector-borne disease
Winterbottom's sign[6]
periodic fever[6]
headache[6]
malaise[6]
anemia[6]
arthralgia
sleep disorder
dizziness
primary affect
tachycardia
swelling
cachexia
sopor


Q649558 Chagas disease Trypanosoma cruzi infectious disease trypanosomiasis[1][11][12]
neglected tropical disease
endemic disease[13]
Chagoma
Romana's sign
cardiomyopathy
myocarditis
hepatomegaly
splenomegaly
megacolon


Q782898 Murray Valley encephalitis Murray Valley encephalitis virus infectious disease[1] viral infectious disease[1]
viral encephalitis[1]
arbovirosis
endemic disease
mosquito-borne disease
brain diseases[1]
malaise
prodrome
irritability
somnolence[1]
headache
fever
delusion
altération de l'état de conscience
sopor
coma
tremor
meningism signs
muscle weakness[1]
mental confusion[1]
nausea[1]
vomiting[1]


Q866602 multidrug-resistant tuberculosis infectious disease[2] tuberculosis[1]
MDR bacteria


Q1432397 Kyasanur forest disease Kyasanur Forest disease virus infectious disease[2] viral infectious disease[1]
tick-borne disease
viral hemorrhagic fever
arbovirosis
hospital-acquired infection
endemic disease
fever
chills
headache
myalgia
lymphadenopathy
conjunctivitis
photophobia
internal bleeding
bleeding[1]
cough
abdominal pain
hyperesthesia
nausea
vomiting
diarrhea
tremor
meningism signs
dehydration[1]


Q1737838 laryngeal tuberculosis infectious disease[2] laryngitis[2][1]
obsolete bronchial tuberculosis
rare respiratory disease[2]
Granulomatous inflammation[1]
hoarse voice[1]
dysphagia[1]


Q2500965 urogenital tuberculosis infectious disease[2] extrapulmonary tuberculosis[1]
genitourinary system disease
rare urogenital disease[2]


Q3392410 pleural tuberculosis infection infectious disease[2] pleurisy
extrapulmonary tuberculosis[1]
pleural disease[1]
rare respiratory disease[2]
allergy[1]
pleural effusion[1]
allergic response[1]


Q3854687 tuberculous meningitis infectious disease[2] central nervous system tuberculosis[2]
bacterial meningitis[2]


Q4678337 lymph node tuberculosis infectious disease[2] extrapulmonary tuberculosis[1]
tuberculous lymphadenitis
lymph node disease[2][1]
immune disorder[2]
enlargement of lymph nodes[1]
lymphadenopathy[1]


Q7850856 pericardial tuberculosis tuberculosis infectious disease[2] pericarditis[2]
cardiovascular tuberculosis
rare cardiac disease[2]
extrapulmonary tuberculosis[1]
pericardium disease[1]
pericardial effusion[1]


Q18554739 tuberculous empyema infectious disease[2] pleural empyema[2][1]
empyema[2]
pleural tuberculosis[2]


Q18554860 central nervous system tuberculosis infectious disease[2] extrapulmonary tuberculosis[1]
infection of the central nervous system[2]
central nervous system disease[1]


Q18556166 gastrointestinal tuberculosis infectious disease[2] abdominal tuberculosis[1]
gastrointestinal system disease[2]
weight loss[1]
nausea[1]
vomiting[1]


Q18556185 hepatic tuberculosis infectious disease[2] gastrointestinal tuberculosis[2][1]
liver disease[1]
jaundice[1]


Q18557555 esophageal tuberculosis infectious disease[2] gastrointestinal tuberculosis[2][1]
esophageal disease[2][1]
dysphagia[1]


Q18557641 bladder tuberculosis infectious disease[2] urogenital tuberculosis[1]
bladder disease[2][1]
urinary tract infection[2]
male infertility due to obstructive azoospermia of genetic origin[2]
rare genetic urogenital disease[2]


Q18557889 ureter tuberculosis infectious disease[2] urogenital tuberculosis[2][1]
ureteral disease[1]
urinary tract infection[2]


Q18558204 renal tuberculosis infectious disease[2] urinary tract infection[2]
rare genetic renal disease[2]
male infertility due to obstructive azoospermia of genetic origin[2]
rare genetic urogenital disease[2]
urogenital tuberculosis[1]
kidney disease[1]


Q18558227 tuberculous peritonitis infectious disease[2] gastrointestinal tuberculosis[2][1]
peritonitis[2]
abdominal discomfort[1]
abdominal distention[1]


Q18924547 Rocio virus encephalitis Rocio virus infectious disease arbovirosis
viral encephalitis
zoonosis
flavivirus infectious disease
mosquito-borne disease
endemic disease
prodrome
fever
headache
nausea
vomiting
conjunctivitis
meningism signs
coma


Q18967247 Chagas cardiomyopathy infectious disease[2] Chagas disease
extrinsic cardiomyopathy
cardiomyopathy[2]


Q12204 tuberculosis Mycobacterium tuberculosis[14][1] notifiable disease[15]
endemic disease[16]
primary bacterial infectious disease[1]
mycobacterium infectious disease
endemic disease[17]
infectious disease
cough
hemoptysis
weight loss
fever



∑ 109 items.

End of auto-generated list.
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce cf cg ch ci cj ck cl cm cn co cp cq cr cs ct cu cv cw cx cy cz Disease Ontology
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl Monarch Disease Ontology release 2018-06-29sonu
  3. ^ https://web.archive.org/web/20060220083223/http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/layne/Epidemiology%20220/07.malaria.pdf
  4. ^ http://www.cdc.gov/hiv
  5. ^ https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv-aids/glossary/220/endemic
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p WikiSkripta
  7. ^ a b https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/yellow-fever
  8. ^ a b https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/yellow-fever/symptoms-causes/syc-20353045
  9. ^ https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/yellow-fever
  10. ^ https://fieldresearch.msf.org/bitstream/handle/10144/114145/091014_Brun_HAT_Lancet-2009-375-148_REVIEW.pdf;jsessionid=D91CDC96162D4D003DFE5AD3CF890AD0?sequence=1
  11. ^ Preventing the transmission of American trypanosomiasis and its spread into non-endemic countries
  12. ^ Translational challenges of animal models in Chagas disease drug development: a review
  13. ^ https://fieldresearch.msf.org/bitstream/handle/10144/114145/091014_Brun_HAT_Lancet-2009-375-148_REVIEW.pdf
  14. ^ http://www.cdc.gov/tb/
  15. ^ https://www.admin.ch/opc/de/classified-compilation/20151622/201901010000/818.101.126.pdf
  16. ^ https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/154076/9789241508490_eng.pdf;sequence=1
  17. ^ https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/154076/9789241508490_eng.pdf
  • Why not list the diseases alphabetically? I resorted them for myself, but you say that any changes will be deleted in the next update.
  • What countries are these diseases currently endemic within?
  • Surely there are other endemic diseases afoot in the world. What does a disease have to do to make the cut for this list?
  • Why all the columns that you don't use?
  • Will this chart ever be added to the Endemic article itself after these kinks are ironed out?
Thank you for you help, Wordreader (talk) 23:59, 26 April 2020 (UTC)Reply
@Tomastvivlaren:. What is the point of this table? This seems like an improper usage of the talk pages. I am tempted to remove it. Jason Quinn (talk) 14:27, 26 October 2021 (UTC)Reply
Jason Quinn:The aim was to encourage people to fact-check and improve endemic related items at Wikidata, since infoboxes in some Wikipedia versions (not yet English Wikipedia, but for example a few articles on the Swedish version), many pages at Wikimedia commons, etc, automatically take that information from Wikidata and show it in the local language. I have now hidden the list and inactivated the neverending updates for this page. I realize it is better to refer people to the above wikidata database query.
Wordreader: Thanks for good questions. My code sorted the list based on "Instance of", i.e. type of endemic, but that can be changed. The columns correspond to proporties that potentially may be entered in the endemic pages at Wikidata, and may be shown automatically in infoboxes on some wikis. I do not think an automatically updated chart should be added to the endemic article for many years, it is still dangerous to rely on Wikidata, but perhaps the chart may inspire someone to compile a manually updated list. I have stopped working on the topic of endemics. Tomastvivlaren (talk) 22:17, 26 October 2021 (UTC)Reply

What people say is not biomedical information

edit

Here's what I wrote:

  • Hopes for COVID-19 to become endemic make a similar mistake; generally, the speaker expresses a wish that COVID-19 will become relatively harmless and non-disruptive to society, whereas endemicity promises only that there will be a steady, predictable number of sick people.[1][2]

Here's what @Crossroads has turned it into:

  • Hopes for COVID-19 to become endemic may make a similar mistake; endemic COVID-19 could be mild if immunity from infection against pathology is lifelong or lasts longer than immunity against infection,[3] but endemicity in itself promises only that there will be a steady, predictable number of sick people.[4]

First of all, I think that the "could be mild" idea is POVish. Sure, it "could be mild", but it also "could be not-mild", and with an additional year-plus of data behind us, it seems like "not-mild" is unfortunately possible. There is no lifelong immunity. Some people get extremely sick, some of them stay sick for many months, perhaps the rest of their lives, and some of them die. Or perhaps it's just in line with the definition of "mild COVID" from the early days, when "moderate" meant that you had to be admitted to the hospital for supplemental oxygen, and "mild" just meant you couldn't get out of your own bed without help, which is not how most people normally use those words.

Compare that the hopeful statement about COVID-19 becoming "mild" against the tone struck in newer sources:

  • "Endemic is not equal to harmless. Commonly, endemic is falsely interpreted as the end of COVID-19, bringing to a false complacency. Endemic "label" on an infectious disease, such as malaria, HIV infection, tuberculosis in certain regions of the world, means the overall rates of infection are static - neither rising nor falling. Endemic "label" defines nothing about time duration to reach disease end or how many populations will still be susceptible to the disease." [1]
  • "But reframing COVID-19 as an endemic disease right now is a premature notion at best, representing more of what we want COVID-19 to become than the epidemiological reality...But the evolutionary trajectory of COVID-19 does not at this time suggest a clear path toward endemicity, and epidemiologists and evolutionary biologists warn against impulsively applying this notion to the disease." [2]
  • "While the “boat has sailed” on eliminating SARS-CoV-2, it’s still unclear what kind of endemicity the virus will establish, said Kaushic. Endemic means that a virus is continually present and somewhat predictable — not that it’s harmless or that precautions to prevent infections are unnecessary." [3]
  • "An endemic disease can still have serious consequences. Take the examples of malaria, HIV, tuberculosis and other infectious diseases that are endemic worldwide. In 2020, there were an estimated 241 million cases of malaria worldwide and around 627,000 deaths.3 Outbreaks and sporadic infections will continue to occur" [4]

Second, I deliberately constructed this sentence to talk about how people use this word, and how people use a word is not Wikipedia:Biomedical information. This is a statement about linguistics, not about science. The Atlantic is a reliable source for what I wrote.

As for what you wrote, the source you cite does not say that COVID-19 will become endemic. They write, in fact, that "Epidemics can fade or transition to an endemic phase", which means that there are two options for the end of an epidemic, and only one of them is endemicity. The source also says that "infection does not generate life-long immunity", so that zero-likelihood prospect should probably not be mentioned anywhere.

(As a side note, the bit that runs "if immunity from infection against pathology...lasts longer than immunity against infection" is garbled and needs to be re-written. Perhaps you meant "if previously acquired immunity reduces the risk of death and disability during future infections"? Another approach would be to shorten it substantially: "It is possible that COVID-19 could become endemic, i.e., that it would produce a steady and predictable number of infections.") WhatamIdoing (talk) 07:34, 1 December 2022 (UTC)Reply

Agree the re-write is not an improvement. The Atlantic article is good for non-WP:BMI. Bon courage (talk) 07:53, 1 December 2022 (UTC)Reply
The assertions found in that article and cited to it about viral endemicity are all biomedical information. Crossroads -talk- 20:10, 1 December 2022 (UTC)Reply
I agree both that comments about society's "hopes" vs what "endemicity" is does not require a MEDRS source. The cited paper that got added discusses scenarios concerning the severity of an endemic covid, but does not address "what people/society think/say/hope". While it does have some sentences using the "it could be mild if..." they could equally have been written "it could be severe if...". It is clear the journal article writers hope for a mild outcome, but we aren't here to document their hope. There is also a persistent myth that diseases become mild as they evolve in a host population, which is nonsense (think of rabies and smallpox), and if you are thinking of myxomatosis, I don't know how a case fatality rate of 50-95% sounds to you, and we don't breed like rabbits. I don't think this article needs to get bogged down in details of how covid might become mild or might not. What matters is that people (in the West anyway) wrongly thing endemicity is a good thing and associate it with a harmless disease. I'm not sure that folk in central Africa think endemic disease is a harmless thing. Do we have any sources indicating this is a wealthy nation's fallacy? -- Colin°Talk 12:37, 1 December 2022 (UTC)Reply
WhatamIdoing, I don't mind adjusting the text I wrote, but your version is POV toward the idea that endemic Covid could be not mild. "Could be mild" is a fact, not POV. Both possibilities should be mentioned here. And the fact is that this article is a medical article, and this aspect of the topic is implying or making medical claims, so we should be relying on medical sources when possible.
The four "newer" sources you cite have a total of 7 citations on Google Scholar (5 of them in just the 2nd one), and are mostly rather short articles. The 3rd one especially is written very much like a news report, not a full-on review article. The article I cited has 61 citations. It is from late 2021, well after there were new variants after vaccination and such.
I strongly encourage people here to read it. It addresses many of the objections made here. For instance, "no lifelong immunity" against infection doesn't mean that it can't be mild when endemic, because immunity to severe disease could be lifelong or could last significantly longer than immunity to infection, leading to regular 'boosting' from infections (or from yearly vaccine boosters, presumably). Evolving to be more intrinsically more mild is also not necessary at all, though entirely possible and may have happened already with existing human coronaviruses, including one that likely caused the 1890 pandemic - this is all in the article too. Comparisons to smallpox and rabies are irrelevant because these are very different species with very different means of spread - we already have endemic coronaviruses. Regarding the claim the authors "hope for a mild outcome, but we aren't here to document their hope" - actually they explain why and how that would happen like any academic paper rather than mere "hope", they acknowledge it is not a given, and in fact we are here to document the views of experts with WP:DUE weight. Endemicity is a good thing compared to a pandemic when eradication is impossible, as is true for all coronaviruses due to the inability to create lifelong immunity to infection.
I think at minimum, as a simplification, we could agree that some experts expect that endemic COVID will be mild and some think it will not. So why only present one view and call the other a "mistake"? Is this not misleading readers? We can't use what basically amounts to 'this is about society so we don't need MEDRS' as a reason to present just the possibility that society doesn't want as though the other one isn't possible. Some in the media like to write articles and thinkpieces debunking people's hope for normalcy or whatever - negativity gets more views and always has - but we should not think that MEDRS mostly think this is the most likely possibility.
We should probably also cut the "similar mistake" bit since it's not clear what is "similar", and COVID is very different from AIDS anyway - HIV infections are permanent but COVID infections are not, just for starters. Something like this, integrating a suggestion from WhatamIdoing earlier: "Some in the public wrongly assume that endemic COVID-19 means the disease would necessarily be mild.[4] Endemic COVID-19 could be mild if previously acquired immunity reduces the risk of death and disability during future infections,[3] but in itself endemicity only means that there will be a steady, predictable number of sick people.[4]" Crossroads -talk- 19:37, 1 December 2022 (UTC)Reply

References

  1. ^ Cite error: The named reference :0 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  2. ^ Wu, Jacob Stern, Katherine J. (2022-02-01). "Endemicity Is Meaningless". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2022-11-30.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  3. ^ a b Antia R, Halloran ME (October 2021). "Transition to endemicity: Understanding COVID-19". Immunity (Review). 54 (10): 2172–2176. doi:10.1016/j.immuni.2021.09.019. PMC 8461290. PMID 34626549.
  4. ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference :02 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).