Draft:List of election bellwether states in the United States

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Declined by MicrobiologyMarcus 6 months ago. Last edited by KangarooGymnast 4 months ago. Reviewer: Inform author.

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Comment: The article ought to demonstrate notability for lists (WP:NLIST) by demonstrating coverage of where the group of items in the list is covered by outside sources. As the article appears now, it is a violation of WP:SYNTH as original research. microbiologyMarcus ^{(petri dish•growths)} 17:26, 3 November 2023 (UTC)

In U.S. presidential elections, there are often certain states that vote more in line with the national trend than other states. Whereas most states tend to vote reliably for one party, these states commonly swing back-and-forth between parties, creating a bellwhether effect where the winner in these states is also the winner nationally.

Current bellwhether states edit

The most recent presidential election took place in 2020 where Democrat Joe Biden beat Republican Donald Trump. Biden flipped five states that Trump had previously won in 2016.^[1] These five states currently hold the longest active bellwhether streaks in the country.^[2]

Overview of bellwether states in federal elections
Start of streak	State	Election cycles	2020 winner	Votes		2020 runner-up	Last deviation
2008	Michigan	4	Joe Biden	2,804,040	2,649,852	Donald Trump	2004
2008	Pennsylvania	4	Joe Biden	3,458,229	3,377,674	Donald Trump	2004
2008	Wisconsin	4	Joe Biden	1,630,866	1,610,184	Donald Trump	2004
2016	Arizona	2	Joe Biden	1,672,143	1,661,686	Donald Trump	2012
2016	Georgia	2	Joe Biden	2,473,633	2,461,854	Donald Trump	2012

Historic bellwhether states edit

There are 14 bellwhether streaks that stretch back over a period of at least 12 consecutive election cycles.^[3]

Overview of bellwether states in federal elections
Streak	State	Election cycles	Streak broken	Statewide winner	Votes		Nationwide winner
1912–1972	Nevada	16	1976	Gerald Ford	101,273	92,479	Jimmy Carter
1912–1972	New Mexico	16	1976	Gerald Ford	211,419	201,148	Jimmy Carter
1964–2016	Ohio	14	2020	Donald Trump	3,154,834	2,679,165	Joe Biden
1920–1972	Illinois	14	1976	Gerald Ford	2,364,269	2,271,295	Jimmy Carter
1904–1956	Idaho	14	1960	Richard Nixon	161,597	138,853	John F. Kennedy
1904–1956	Montana	14	1960	Richard Nixon	141,841	134,891	John F. Kennedy
1892–1944	Maryland	14	1948	Thomas E. Dewey	294,814	286,521	Harry S. Truman
1828–1880	Pennsylvania	14	1884	James G. Blaine	478,804	392,785	Grover Cleveland
1904–1952	Missouri	13	1956	Adlai Stevenson	918,273	914,289	Dwight D. Eisenhower
1960–2004	Missouri	12	2008	John McCain	1,445,814	1,441,911	Barack Obama
1952–1996	Delaware	12	2000	Al Gore	180,068	137,288	George W. Bush
1920–1964	Minnesota	12	1968	Hubert Humphrey	857,738	658,643	Richard Nixon
1912–1956	Arizona	12	1960	Richard Nixon	221,241	176,781	John F. Kennedy
1896–1940	Ohio	12	1944	Thomas E. Dewey	1,582,293	1,570,763	Franklin D. Roosevelt