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- Comment: The article ought to demonstrate notability for lists (WP:NLIST) by demonstrating coverage of where the group of items in the list is covered by outside sources. As the article appears now, it is a violation of WP:SYNTH as original research. microbiologyMarcus (petri dish•growths) 17:26, 3 November 2023 (UTC)
In U.S. presidential elections, there are often certain states that vote more in line with the national trend than other states. Whereas most states tend to vote reliably for one party, these states commonly swing back-and-forth between parties, creating a bellwhether effect where the winner in these states is also the winner nationally.
Current bellwhether states
editThe most recent presidential election took place in 2020 where Democrat Joe Biden beat Republican Donald Trump. Biden flipped five states that Trump had previously won in 2016.[1] These five states currently hold the longest active bellwhether streaks in the country.[2]
Start of streak | State | Election cycles | 2020 winner | Votes | 2020 runner-up | Last deviation | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | Michigan | 4 | Joe Biden | 2,804,040 | 2,649,852 | Donald Trump | 2004 |
2008 | Pennsylvania | 4 | Joe Biden | 3,458,229 | 3,377,674 | Donald Trump | 2004 |
2008 | Wisconsin | 4 | Joe Biden | 1,630,866 | 1,610,184 | Donald Trump | 2004 |
2016 | Arizona | 2 | Joe Biden | 1,672,143 | 1,661,686 | Donald Trump | 2012 |
2016 | Georgia | 2 | Joe Biden | 2,473,633 | 2,461,854 | Donald Trump | 2012 |
Historic bellwhether states
editThere are 14 bellwhether streaks that stretch back over a period of at least 12 consecutive election cycles.[3]