Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Humanities/2012 September 30

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September 30

Soviet Census

How come it took the Soviet government 20 years to conduct a census after 1939, when it generally conducted censuses after a decade or so (1926, 1937/1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989)? 1959 was the big exception, but I can't quite figure out why. WWII was over in 1945, but the USSR took 14 years after the end of WWII to conduct a new census. Futurist110 (talk) 00:13, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

I suspect political reasons. Two that come to mind is that they didn't want to admit how many people were killed in WW2 and/or how many people Stalin had killed. StuRat (talk) 01:12, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

Or practical reasons: they were killing lots of people until 59, and thought it didn't make sense to count them while they were killing. OsmanRF34 (talk) 01:15, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

Neither of these are terribly compelling "theories", as both misunderstand the mindset of the Soviet bureaucracy. The Soviets had no trouble making censuses in the 1920s or the 1930s, when they were purging left and right. I doubt this sort of thing had anything to do with it; faking data would have been easy enough, and World War II created enough Soviet casualties to massage any numbers if one wanted to. My suspicion is that there are probably far more banal reasons. But there doesn't seem to be anything written about this. It would be an interesting thing for someone to investigate, but it is a non-trivial thing to try and figure out over the Internet and in English alone. --Mr.98 (talk) 01:59, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, Stalin was dissatisfied with the results of the 1937 Soviet census so he simply ordered a new one in 1939 and then rigged its results to show a larger population than it should have been. If the USSR would have wanted to manipulate some data it would have been very easy for them to do this. Also, even though the USSR was busy diverting resources to Communist takeovers and takeover attempts in Eastern Europe, China, and Korea, it would have probably still been able to have enough resources for a new census in the late 1940s/early 1950s if it desired to implement one. You're right that the reason for a lack of a Soviet census around 1950 might be something very basic, simple, and obvious. I wonder if Stalin planned to do a new census after he planned to deport the Soviet Jews to Siberia (if he had such plans in the first place). It would have been stupid for Stalin to do a new census in the late 1940s and early 1950s and then (assuming that he would have lived longer) to deport Soviet Jews to Siberia and then get blamed for a large further Jewish death toll. Of course, Stalin died before he could implement any such plans, if he had them, but had Stalin lived and done a new census after deporting the Soviet Jews to Siberia, then he could have used Hitler as a complete scapegoat for the decline in the Soviet Jewish population even if some of it would have been his fault. I speak Russian fluently, and I can read it fluently as well but very slowly. However, I speak "common" Russian, not "literary/academic" Russian, so even if I tried a search in Russian about this I won't know where to look or what search words/key words to use. Futurist110 (talk) 02:52, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

The official website suggests they were busy counting other things like equipment, materials, cattle, and crops. Don't forget they had a terrible WW II, and were fully expecting to fight WW III. Zoonoses (talk) 06:10, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

Yes. The Soviet Union lost ~13.5% of its population. A large part of that from the military (i.e. from working-age people). They probably were quite busy just getting the country running again. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:19, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

This was my initial thought, but would they really have been in such dire straits that they couldn't do a census by 1949 or 1950? It's possible, it just doesn't seem like it's obvious enough to be definitive without some evidence of them saying, "we don't have time for this." They had enough resources in the 1945-1949 time period to build an atom bomb, you'd think they could fit in a census if they were really desiring of one. --Mr.98 (talk) 14:52, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

This Russian article suggests that the post-WWII famine caused the death of about a million people, and "[since] the data for that period could not be used for propaganda purposes, Stalin rejected statisticians' proposal for a new census in 1949". In any event, doing a census just may not have been viewed as a high enough priority for the country at the time. (Theoretically speaking, the USSR would not need to have decenial censuses at all, if other population counting mechanisms (birth and death registration, records of arrests and forced relocations, residential address registration) had been working 100% perfectly - although of course it was exactly the WWII period that had all these registration systems break down to various extent for several years.) -- Vmenkov (talk) 17:56, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

name for a research paradigm

I'm doing qualitative research, and to satisfy various people, it is highly desirable (perhaps not essential) that I classify it as something that sounds good. It's closest to in-depth interviews, but not quite as involved. Basically I'm just finding out whether some software I've done is any good for education, and so the basic question I want to ask participants is "does it work?" It's not rocket science to assume they have a reasonable idea of its benefits, if we are talking about education (it would be different if we were talking about the effect of a drug on blood clotting, for example, or a retrospective study on pain in babies, etc etc). So it makes sense to ask people what they think, and just let them tell me, but I want to know what's the closest thing to this among official "named" research methods. I've done some searching, and every named thing I can find is quite detailed, and usually borrowed from psychology (or some other more theoretical area) and requires a lot more than just asking people for their opinions. More rigorous research will follow; this is just for a pilot. IBE (talk) 04:39, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

I thought of the term "focus group", but that's used more in marketing, and involves group interviews, not one-on-one. How about just "Educational software user assessment analysis" ? StuRat (talk) 05:13, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

That might in fact work, but it's safer to use an existing paradigm with a fancy sounding name and its own Wikipedia article. The corollary to whaaoe must be that if we don't, it doesn't exist. IBE (talk) 05:22, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

We have articles on educational software, end-user, assessment, and analysis. Put them together and you have "Educational software end-user assessment analysis". StuRat (talk) 05:44, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

Nice try ;).... assessment is a disambiguation page, and in any case, I said "an" article. Four is a bit too many. Good trick though, didn't see it coming. IBE (talk) 06:31, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

I'm not sure that an editor like StuRat was trying to "trick" you, and I'd recommend being more cautious of throwing around these terms on Wikipedia. --Activism1234 06:33, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

It's an evaluation. Good evaluations use a mix of methods. In the pilot phase you used simply interviews, perhaps they were semi-structured interviews, but if you only asked one or two questions then that would be too much to claim. Now as you go into the main phase you need to choose your methods carefully, not just to sound good, but to give you valid results. The most important thing you need to think about is the independence of the research from you as the software developer. Ideally you would commission an entirely independent team to do the next phase. If you can't do that, can you involve some users in designing and carrying out the research? Itsmejudith (talk) 07:18, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

Not sure I can go that far, but wouldn't it be nice .... sadly, that counts as work, and I have to do it (PhD, not major software company stuff). Thanks for the terminology: nice and simple. IBE (talk) 12:52, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

Then at least make the questions objective ones, like "How would you rate the ____ from 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest possible rating ?". This way, assuming you don't lie about what they said, it's not possible to "put your own spin" on the data. StuRat (talk) 16:15, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

Considering how general the research method is, I'd be surprised if there was a term more specific than "survey", "poll", or "market research". Note that if you plan on asking people "does this work?", those people had better be the children who will use your software, because why would a 50-year-old know what the best way to learn elementary algebra is for a 12 year old? --140.180.242.9 (talk) 22:39, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

Scottish independence

If Scotland becomes independent, would anyone from any part of the UK be allowed to move to Scotland and become a Scottish citizen, or would only people born in Scotland be allowed?

Will people from the rest of the UK wanting to jump ship and leave with Scotland be blocked from doing so?

Are there any historical precedents? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 95.25.156.221 (talk) 12:54, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

There's no concrete proposal, so you'd have to guess about what the post-independence arrangements would be. The arrangements for the referendum seem to be only people living in Scotland at the time could vote (so people born in Scotland but living in say England wouldn't be); whether that applied for citizenship, no-one knows, as no-one has decided. There isn't much law about how a divorce could be conducted (the Acts of Union don't cover this eventuality) - one might look to the Dissolution of Czechoslovakia as a guideline about how amicable divorces of unified countries could be conducted (or perhaps Dissolution of the union between Norway and Sweden in 1905, although that article has less info about the internal and external legal outcomes). -- Finlay McWalterჷTalk 13:05, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

It seems very unlikely that an independent Scotland would isolate itself from the rest of the world to the extent that British people couldn't move to Scotland. It would depend on the laws that a future independent Scotland enacts: all countries have rules regarding immigration, and there are rules about naturalisation of foreign citizens. Depending on what Scotland decided would be its relationship with the EU - whether it will be a full-blown member, or just a member of the European Economic Area - it might still have to let citizens of other European countries (including the UK) enter and work. If that's the case, then people from the UK wanting to live in an independent Scotland, that is a member of the EU, probably could move there. The only 'problem' (and I don't know if it really would be a problem for people moving to Scotland) would be whether they could find work there. Even if Scotland choses to be neither an EU member nor an EEA member, it could still choose to have lax immigration laws for UK citizens. (To me, that seems the most likely, at least in the short run.)

There are several examples of (current) states that have had referendums to break away from a larger state. One could include the East Timorese independence referendum, 1999 or the South Sudanese independence referendum, 2011, just last year. V85 (talk) 13:44, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

The Scottish National Party (which is the only plausible agent for Scottish independence at present) is very Euro-enthusiastic. Whether the European Union actually wants an independent Scotland as a member is not a foregone conclusion, as they've already been told that membership won't be granted automatically, they'll have to apply like everybody else. Alansplodge (talk) 14:29, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

Rather than Scotland being outside the EU and the (rest of the) UK inside, the reverse situation is a more likely scenario. Ghmyrtle (talk) 18:21, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

For another possible blueprint of scission and its aftermath, consider Ireland–United Kingdom relations#Co-operation. This covers citizenship, the Common Travel Area, and various kinds of cross border cooperation and institutions. One might analogise the issue of the Treaty Ports with that of HMNB Clyde. -- Finlay McWalterჷTalk 16:40, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

That is a good comparison. Irish Citizens who are resident and on the electoral register can vote in UK elections where other EU nationals cannot.[1] I believe this has been the case since the founding of the Irish Free State in 1922. Alansplodge (talk) 23:17, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

If you consider the Dissolution of the Soviet Union to be a relevant historical precedent, it seems most (perhaps all) post Soviet republics gave citizenship to USSR citizens resident in their territory at the moment of their independence. That's the primary factor of citizenship for at least Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia, and Russia. Some republics, like Lithuania and Latvia have a "law of return", and some have clauses where having grandparents from that republic is grounds for citizenship. Few allow dual citizenship (Russia does, a bit). -- Finlay McWalterჷTalk 17:59, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

What happened when the Republic of Ireland became independent? Did people have to decide that they wanted to stay UK subjects, or was everyone living in that part of Ireland automatically considered an Irish citizen? 69.62.243.48 (talk) 00:52, 1 October 2012 (UTC)

Irish nationality law#Historical provisions goes some way to answering this. It doesn't seem that people in the UK but not on the island of Ireland, who may have felt themselves to be "Irish", became or had rights to become Irish Republic nationals. It does seem that everyone involved did have the right to remain a UK national (which is quite unlike the USSR case, where people woke up one morning and found themselves solely the citizen of a country that hadn't existed the previous night, entirely without their having decided that). -- Finlay McWalterჷTalk 01:02, 1 October 2012 (UTC)

Advertising Model of Cable and Satellite TV

How exactly do Cable TV and Satellite TV companies make money off of the advertisements for the programing that goes on television? Do they sell or lease out their channels to media companies who provide the content who then sell ad-space? Or do they do it some other way? Bakmoon (talk) 23:01, 30 September 2012 (UTC)

The various television networks make money off the television advertisement that appears during the shows that they run. Some periods of broadcasting time may be dedicated to "local affiliates" which can be the local carrier, so it's complicated. These networks have various licensing agreements with the cable and satellite distributors that carry them. Premium networks like HBO negotiate higher fees which are subscribed to by the customer individually through the carrier. Other channels become available to the customer as part of a much cheaper package. All of this is negotiated between the carriers and the networks, meaning occasional changes in what is available to the viewer. But commercial revenue largely goes to the network, not the carrier. μηδείς (talk) 01:02, 1 October 2012 (UTC)