LendingNext

JR East EMU navbox

Hi Wikidate47, I noticed that you moved several dual-voltage EMUs at {{JR East EMU}} from their respective sections to other sections, even though their articles clearly state they're dual-voltage in most cases. Could you please explain why you moved them? Thanks. XtraJovial (talk) 05:28, 13 May 2022 (UTC)

The reason for the move is that the AC electrified equipment has already been removed from the 651 series, and the e501 series is self-propelled only in the AC section. Wikidate47 (talk) 09:07, 13 May 2022 (UTC)

Ok, I gave 651 series an Update tag for the time being. XtraJovial (talk) 17:50, 14 May 2022 (UTC)

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Happy editing! Cheers, 𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 18:29, 8 June 2023 (UTC)

"Junk currency"

We cannot say in wp:wikivoice that the JPY is a junk currency, because clearly that is not true. If you really want to know what a junk currency looks like, see Papiermark, Zimbabwean dollar#Abandonment and demonetisation or Venezuelan bolívar. The most we can say is that "The Asahi Shimbun says it is a junk currency" and even then we need to be clear: was this written in an editorial or is it an opinion piece? because it just comes across as journalistic hyperbole. So who wrote it?

The JPY is the world's third most held reserve currency: I see no sign that central banks around the world are dumping it. It is poor economics to regard the USD as neutral reference because that currency is just as subject to fads and speculation. The usual reference is the notional "basket of currencies" which contains proportional fractions of the currencies that Japan most trades with. The USD is important to Japan because oil and gas (of which Japan is heavy importer) are priced in USD so when the price of these commodities appreciates, the JPY will depreciate. Fact of life. Japan has other problems but a "junk currency" is not one of them. --𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 18:29, 8 June 2023 (UTC)

The author of the Asahi Shimbun article I have mentioned is Hosomi Rui. The article does not constitute an editorial or opinion piece and is considered to be an exaggeration by the Asahi Shimbun that the currency has become junk currency. Wikidate47 (talk) 19:15, 8 June 2023 (UTC)

Sorry now I'm confused. So how can Hosomi Rui be writing in the AS if it is not an Editorial or an Op-Ed? (if I ignore news reports). Are they a columnist? They don't seem to have any online presence that Google can find...

Who (apart from Chipmunkdavis and me, obviously ) "consider[s it] to be an exaggeration"? --𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 19:53, 8 June 2023 (UTC)

Hosomi Rui is an employee of the Asahi Shimbun, but she is currently seconded to the Huffington Post and does not write for the Asahi Shimbun.Also, I can't answer whether the article is exaggerated or not, as opinions may differ from person. Please note. Wikidate47 (talk) 20:21, 8 June 2023 (UTC)

But at the time she wrote it, was she working for AS? In what capacity (reporter, columnist, business section editor, chief economics correspondent)? What I'm looking for is foundation to say something like

On <date>, Hosomi Rui (economics editor, The Asahi Shimbun) wrote critically about the continuing depreciation of the Yen against the US dollar, suggesting that it was becoming a junk currency.<citation>

That does suppose of course that she has a senior position, that she was representing the view of the paper. [I worry that something may have been lost in the translation. "Junk currency" usually means hyperinflation, thick stacks of banknotes not worth the paper they are printed on. That does not remotely describe the JPY.]

Does that help move us forward? --𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 23:50, 8 June 2023 (UTC)

I will write it in Japanese.

2022年9月3日に、細見るい(朝日新聞経済部)が記載いたしました。細見るい(朝日新聞経済部)は、東短リサーチの加藤出氏にインタビューを行い、「日銀の政策の影響で、私たちがためてきたお金の対外（的な）価値が落ち、生活コストが上昇してきている」と述べた。

Based on this statement, it is believed that the yen was described as a junk currency. Wikidate47 (talk) 02:58, 9 June 2023 (UTC)

Your English is excellent, it really did not occur to me that it might not be your first language!

Google Translate renders that as

On September 3, 2022, Rui Hosomi (Asahi Shimbun Economic Department) [1] described. In an interview with Izuru Kato of Totan Research, Izuru Hosomi (Economy Section of the Asahi Shimbun) said, "Due to the Bank of Japan's policies, the external value of the money we have accumulated has declined, and the cost of living has fallen. is rising," he said.

which is really not very useful. But your second citation is actually the one we need! Google translates it as

Is the Japanese Yen a “Junk Currency”? Depreciation than Russia and emerging market currencies
The yen has become a junk currency due to the excessive depreciation of the yen." Izuru Kato, chief economist at Totan Research and known as a "Bank of Japan watcher" who has analyzed the policy of the Bank of Japan for many years, said the yen had fallen below the 140 yen level against the dollar for the first time in 24 years . In response to this, he sounded a warning bell about the current situation of the yen. He also pointed out the impact of the Bank of Japan's policies, saying, 'The external value of the money we have accumulated has declined and the cost of living has risen.'

This gives us the real source (Izuru Kato, chief economist at Totan Research), though it was not he who used the term "junk currency" but Izuru Hosomi – and she(?) doesn't even declare the yen to be a junk currency but only asks the question, a typical journalistic device (see click bait). If current trends continue indefinitely (as happened in Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe etc.) then it would be junk. But that is a huge "if".

I can only see the first part of the article without a subscription to AS. Are you a subscriber? Is there a more definite statement later on? --𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 11:01, 9 June 2023 (UTC)

yes. I subscribe to the Asahi Shimbun. Wikidate47 (talk) 12:40, 9 June 2023 (UTC)

Write the entire text in Japanese.

「行きすぎた円安で円がジャンク（がらくた）通貨化している」。日本銀行の政策を長年分析してきた「日銀ウォッチャー」で知られる、東短リサーチの加藤出（いずる）チーフエコノミストは、ドルに対して24年ぶりの円安水準となる140円台をつけたことを受け、円の現状に警鐘を鳴らした。「日銀の政策の影響で、私たちがためてきたお金の対外（的な）価値が落ち、生活コストが上昇してきている」と述べ、日銀の政策の影響の大きさも指摘している。歴史的な円安ドル高水準になっている主因は、米国の利上げによるドル高がある。ただ、円が価値を下げているのはドルに対してだけではない。インドやブラジルなど新興国の通貨や、ウクライナ侵攻で経済制裁を受けているロシアの通貨に対しても値下がりし、独歩安の様相も呈している。　ドルに対する各国通貨の今年初めから9月1日までの下落率を比べると、円が21%なのに対し、欧州のユーロは14%、英国のポンドは17%、中国の人民元は8%だ。円はドルだけでなく、タイのバーツに対して9%、インドのルピーに13%、ブラジルのレアルに29%などと新興国通貨に対しても価値を下げている。ウクライナ侵攻による各国の経済制裁で一時暴落した、ロシアのルーブルに対しては51%も下落している。　金融市場の分析をする東短リサーチが国際決済銀行のデータをまとめたところ、今年7月までの20年間の60カ国・地域の通貨の購買力を示す国際指標「実質実効為替レート」の変化率は、中国の人民元や米ドルなどが上昇した一方、日本の円を含めた27カ国・地域で下落した。円の下落率は最大の46・3%で、経済の混乱が続くアルゼンチンのペソやトルコのリラを大きく上回る。　2日に朝日新聞の取材に応じた加藤氏は「1990年代半ばをピークに、円の信用力は下落傾向にある。日本銀行が長期金利の上限を0・25%に固定する異常な低金利政策がそれを加速させている」と指摘。そのうえで日銀の金融緩和策について、「金利安と通貨安で2%のインフレにすれば日本経済は復活するという趣旨で政策を始めたが、競争力を失った企業に対する痛み止め効果の域を超えるものではない。円安誘導で潤うのは一部の業界だけで、生活者は痛みを被る敗者となる。金融政策の影響で、対外的な購買力が著しく削（そ）がれている」と述べ、その影響に懸念を示した。（細見るい） Wikidate47 (talk) 12:45, 9 June 2023 (UTC)

Yes, Google Translate does very well at translating that and it makes sense. The key point for Wikipedia is that Izuru Kato does not say that the JPY is (or is even likely to be) a "junk currency", so we can't claim that he does – nor, as I have already said, does AH: the journalist merely poses a rhetorical question. According to what I have read, there is a deliberate policy in Japan to create a 2% annual inflation rate: the deflation of the past 20 years has been unhealthy for the economy. (Here in the UK, we have 10% inflation – even more for food, 5% Bank of England rate, house prices expected to fall by 10% over the next two years, and a depreciating currency since Brexit. So maybe that explains why I have been pursuing this question!). So thank you for your replies: I have found this an interesting discussion and I hope you have too. In addition to the "suggested reading" in the welcome splash above, you might also want to read WP:verification and wp:cherrypicking. Once again, welcome to Wikipedia. --𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 15:53, 9 June 2023 (UTC)

thank you. However, the sterling pound has been the best performing major currency over the past three months, rising to the 175 yen level against the Japanese yen. So you should know that for now the sterling pound is trending upwards.Thank you for the interesting discussion. Wikidate47 (talk) 16:58, 9 June 2023 (UTC)

The long term trend for GBP is downwards relative to its major trading partners (EUR, USD). The last three months is anomalous and is not expected to be maintained. For what is causing these movements, see carry trade. And in the case of GBP, money laundering (search google for "London laundromat", or read this book review: Butler to the World by Oliver Bullough review – bent Britain at your service (feel free to ask about any colloquialisms).) --𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 19:44, 9 June 2023 (UTC)

References

Tainome

Might you have you any interest in writing a short note about Tainome? See Talk:Bullet_(typography)#Tainome. Please don't feel obliged! 𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 10:31, 10 June 2023 (UTC)

Bigmotor moved to draftspace

Thanks for your contributions to Bigmotor. Unfortunately, it is not ready for publishing because it needs more sources to establish notability, it has too many problems of language or grammar and the references/citations are unclear, the text is not linked to citations and referencing is almost entirely absent. Assertions of scandals are not backed up by sources. The article requires significant cleanup and submission through the AfC process.. Your article is now a draft where you can improve it undisturbed for a while.

Please see more information at Help:Unreviewed new page. When the article is ready for publication, please click on the "Submit your draft for review!" button at the top of the page. Alexandermcnabb (talk) 06:37, 20 July 2023 (UTC)

I am very sorry. I am editing based on the Japanese page, but it takes a considerable amount of time to edit. We would appreciate it if you could translate from the Japanese version and cooperate with the editing. Wikidate47 (talk) 08:50, 20 July 2023 (UTC)

Verifiability

Stop changing numbers in articles without providing sources. People using Wikipedia need to be able to check that the information in articles comes from a reliable source. We do not want unverifiable information.-- Toddy1 (talk) 21:43, 25 October 2023 (UTC)

Source is imf website.[1] Apologies for not keeping up with updates. Wikidate47 (talk) 21:58, 25 October 2023 (UTC)

Economist article translated

日本が世界の金融システムにどのような脅威を与えているか 海外債券の巨大で信頼できる買い手は財布を閉じようとしているかもしれない

2023 年 11 月 2 日 日本銀行（boj）はハロウィーンのスリラーを届けることに失敗した。 近年、他の中央銀行が金利を引き上げているにもかかわらず、日銀は成長促進を目的とした超緩和政策を堅持している。 日本の基準金利は-0.1%で7年間続いている。 そして10月31日、圧力が高まっていたにもかかわらず、中銀は10年国債利回りの上限を微調整することを決定しただけだった。 銀行が防衛するために巨額の債券買い入れを行っている1％の利回り上限は、現在ではルールではなく参考となっている。 実際、ベンチマーク債券の利回りは0.95％で、ここ10年以上で最高となっている（グラフを参照）。

日銀の発表後、円は１ドル＝１５１円まで下落し、数十年ぶりの安値となった。 インフレは長く停滞していたが、もはやそれほど低くはなくなった。日銀は今後3年間の基調的な「コア」インフレの予測を引き上げた。 アナリストの多くは、中銀が来年初めにイールドカーブコントロール政策を完全に終了し、４月までに利上げを実施すると予想している。 しかし、日銀が最終的に金利を引き上げたとしても、それはほんの数パーセントポイントになる可能性が高く、日本の国債利回りと世界の国債利回りとの格差は依然として大きく、世界の金融に重大な影響を与えることを意味する 市場。 恐怖はまだこれからだ。

その理由を理解するには、日本の最低金利と債券利回りを抑制するための継続的な介入が与えた影響を考えてみましょう。 投資家がより良いリターンを求める中、国内の低金利が海外資産への需要を生み出している。 昨年、日本の海外投資から得た収入は、海外投資家が日本で得た収入を上回る2,690億ドルに達し、世界最大の黒字となり、日本のGDPの6％に相当する。 日本と世界の債券利回りの大きな差は現在、外国債券を購入している日本の投資家と日本の慣習から恩恵を受けてきた世界の発行体の両方に危険をもたらしている。

海外に大規模な投資を行っている日本最大手の金融会社では、危機が特に顕著だ。 海外投資のヘッジコストは、関係する 2 つの通貨の短期金利の差によって異なります。 米国の短期金利は日本の同等金利を５％ポイント以上上回っており、その差は米国の１０年国債利回り４．８％を上回っている。 これは、日本の買い手がドルで長期債を購入し、そのエクスポージャーをヘッジする際に確実に損失を被ることを意味する。 だからこそ、為替リスクのヘッジに最も熱心な金融機関の一つであるこの国の生命保険会社が、昨年11.4兆円（870億ドル）の外債を放出したのである。

短期金利の大きな差は、日本の投資家の選択肢がより限られていることを意味します。 1 つは海外での購入を続けることですが、リスクはより大きくなります。 昨年それぞれ40兆円以上の資産を保有していた明治安田生命保険と住友生命は、急激な為替変動をヘッジせずに海外債券購入を増やすと述べ、事実上急激な円高に賭けている。 生命保険会社は通常保守的ですが、巨大な金利差が長く続くほど、リスクを取るよう促されることになります。

一方、長期日本の国債利回りの上昇は、日銀がイールドカーブコントロールを放棄すればさらに上昇するのは確実で、国内投資家が資金を持ち帰ろうとする可能性がある。 日本の40年債の利回りは2.1％で、日銀がインフレ率2％の目標を達成したとしても投資家の資本を維持するには十分だ。 銀行ウエストパックのマーティン・ウェットン氏は、この見通しは、日本の債券に対する貪欲な欲求に慣れていたアメリカやヨーロッパの企業や政府を懸念させるはずだと言う。

このようなシナリオでは、需要の源泉が西側の企業や政府の資金調達に対する圧力の源泉となるだろう。 その後、日本の投資家が外貨建ての債券を売却し、国内で新たな投資を行うため、円が急騰する可能性がある。 JPモルガン・アセット・マネジメントのボブ・ミシェル氏は、10年にわたる資本の本国送還について警告する。

10年間にわたる世界中の金融緩和政策の中で現れた、世界への日本の資本の流れは、減少する可能性が高いと思われる。 その結果生じる痛みを国内金融機関が感じることになるのか、外国債券発行会社が感じることになるのか、あるいはその両方が感じることになるのかは、今後数カ月のうちに明らかになるだろう。 すでに明らかなことは、それは誰かに感じられるだろうということです𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 20:22, 15 November 2023 (UTC)

Thank you for the translation. I really appreciate you understanding that I am Japanese. LendingWiki (talk) 20:32, 15 November 2023 (UTC)

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January 2024

Hello. Your recent edit to List of online databases appears to have added the name of a non-notable entity to a list that normally includes only notable entries. In general, a person, organization or product added to a list should have a pre-existing article before being added to most lists. If you wish to create such an article, please first confirm that the subject qualifies for a separate, stand-alone article according to Wikipedia's notability guideline on the English Wikipedia—Write the article first. Each different Wikipedia site has its own rules, so it is not relevant whether a different site has an article. Thank you. DMacks (talk) 13:17, 16 January 2024 (UTC)

Understood. I will add this after the article has been prepared. We apologise for any inconvenience caused. LendingWiki (talk) 18:52, 16 January 2024 (UTC)

"Nikkei was right on target"

On en.wikipedia, we are not permitted to give our own analysis of events (see WP:no original research). I reverted your edit for that reason. The spot rate of ¥/$ is of no significance: FOREX rates move constantly and WP: Wikipedia is not a newspaper. When someone who is themself notable makes a statement about it, then we can include that statement. Meanwhile, let the table of monthly averages do the work, no comment needed. 𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 09:12, 27 March 2024 (UTC)

As for the table of monthly averages, the latest values are already shown and if they are to be updated in the future, it will be from April onwards. The source of the Nikkei forecast is [2]. LendingWiki (talk) 09:30, 27 March 2024 (UTC)

BOJ intervention?

The international press is reporting unnamed "sources close to the BOJ" as saying that it is "poised to intervene in the markets" to halt or slow yen depreciation. (For example, Japan yen: Authorities hint at intervention option By Tetsushi Kajimoto March 28, 2024, Reuters.) Right now, that information fails wp:notnews because usually such deliberate "rumours" are just intended as a warning to foreign exchange speculators that they could be left with large losses when the bank intervenes. So maybe they will stop speculating and save everybody a lot of irritation.

But if the BOJ really does intervene, that will certainly be an important development and one that we must report. I expect that you are already watching the news to see if it happens? --𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 18:48, 2 April 2024 (UTC)

Yes. Reports of possible currency intervention have already been confirmed. However, there have been no reports of currency intervention yet and no details are available. LendingWiki (talk) 19:23, 2 April 2024 (UTC)

I don't know if you can read it for free but I recommend this editorial in The Economist:

Japan is wrong to try to prop up the yen

Supporting the currency is expensive and futile

It is easy for investors to lose a fortune in the financial markets—and even easier for governments. In 2022 Japan spent more than $60bn of its foreign-exchange reserves defending the yen, its first intervention to strengthen the currency since 1998, after the exchange rate fell to nearly ¥146 to the dollar. And for what? Today the yen is weaker still. Yet instead of learning that fighting the market is futile, policymakers are repeating the mistake.

The essential argument is that the US Federal Reserve has an interest rate of 5.5% because US inflation remains a big problem. The BoJ has an interest rate of 0.5% because deflation in Japan is still a real risk. So a smart currency trader will borrow a few trillion yen for a year at <1%, sell for dollars to invest at >5%. After a year, reverse the transaction, get more yen than they borrowed and pocket the fat American interest check. It is a no-brainer. It makes no sense for the BoJ to copy the Fed just to save face.

The article concludes

The Japanese government’s urge to intervene is driven by a combination of political calculation and national pride. A cheaper yen makes imports, most notably of energy, more expensive, which is painful for voters. There is no doubting Japan’s firepower: at last count it had almost $1.3trn of foreign-exchange reserves to run down. But it is a waste to spend them doing battle with currency traders who—thanks to the choices of Japan’s own policymakers not to follow the Fed—have good reasons to be selling yen and buying dollars.

--𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 19:46, 11 May 2024 (UTC)

The link was incorrect but a Google search led to an article by the same name, which I was able to read. Thank you so much for your help. LendingNext (talk) 23:52, 11 May 2024 (UTC)

Perhaps you might like to develop the section Japanese yen#Determinants of value? Right now, it maybe gives the impression that nothing significant has happened since 2008? (It is still true of course but looks to be out of date.) --𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 22:43, 13 May 2024 (UTC)

Understood. We will consider this in the future. LendingNext (talk) 09:07, 14 May 2024 (UTC)

You may be interested to see that the Financial Times agrees with The Economist that intervention is a pointless waste of money: The limits of yen intervention --𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 23:19, 15 May 2024 (UTC)

Right! It's that famous Nihon Keizai Shimbun capital newspaper, so there's no doubt about it! LendingNext (talk) 05:29, 16 May 2024 (UTC)

Do you mean that Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that the BoJ actually did intervene? Because I that case, I am surprised that the FT is still treating it as a "probable" rather than report it as a fact. 𝕁𝕄𝔽 (talk) 09:51, 16 May 2024 (UTC)

No. I just thought that since the parent company of the Financial Times is the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, it is likely that its parent company, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, is also opposed to foreign exchange intervention. LendingNext (talk) 11:10, 16 May 2024 (UTC)

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Regarding Big Motor, some time has passed since the scandal was discovered, so we have edited some of the English version based on the Japanese page as of July 19, 2023. However, the situation is that there is no user who can edit it afterwards. I am very sorry. LendingNext (talk) 16:52, 13 May 2024 (UTC)