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User talk:75.108.94.227/arb chart two

< User talk:75.108.94.227
Latest comment: 8 years ago by 75.108.94.227

This is a ROUGH draft. It has not been check with the latest copies of the voter-guides, nor indeed, cross-checked and validated in any fashion. The actual voter-guides (linked below) are your best bet. 75.108.94.227 (talk) 19:58, 23 November 2015 (UTC)Reply

official voter-guides edit

guide \ candidate: Cal. Cas. Drm. Gam. Gor. Haw. Hul. Kei. Kel. Kev. Kir. Kud. Lfa. Mah. Mar. NEE. Opa. Ric. Thr. Tim. Wil. lastmod
~Prediction by pundits  
65.9%
5th 		 ++
90.9%
2nd 		 ++
87.2%
3rd 		 
28.6%
13th 		too low[a]
48.0%
9th 		 --
5.3%
19th 		 
29.7%
11th 		 
63.6%
6th 		 ++
83.3%
4th 		 --
13.0%
17th 		 
31.8%
10th 		 (~)
52.2%
8th 		 
29.3%
12th 		 --
0.0%
20th 		 --
9.1%
18th 		 (~)
59.1%
7th 		 ++
95.1%
1st 		 
28.6%
14th 		 
28.2%
15th 		 Y (out)
71.4%
5th 		 
21.1%
16th 		20151128011825
AGK +   ??                   meh   ??     ??   meh ??   20151127135737
Begoon +                               meh   meh   meh   20151123212850
Bishzilla + ??     ??                           meh   ??   20151123212850
Boing!_said_Zebedee +                    --     meh             Yes   20151123212850
Carcharoth +  (~)            (~)          (~)              (~) No(~)  (~) 20151127135737
Carrite +    ++  ++  --            --  --        --    ++     Yes   20151123221349
Collect[b] +     "C"      ++ "C"      ++  ++   noAns       "C"  ++ "C" "C"   20151123221349
Ealdgyth + meh  ++  ++      (~) meh meh            (~)           Yes meh 20151123223416
Elonka +   ??            (~)    (~)                   No   20151123223416
Fuzheado +     blank     blank blank   blank blank   blank blank blank blank blank   blank blank blank blank 20151127135737
HJ_Mitchell +       meh   meh         meh                 meh   20151123232456
Lady_Cath +   ??         ??             ??     ??  (?) ?? ??   20151128011825
MONGO +           meh meh                         Yes meh 20151123234347
Peter_Damian +                    --  --                 No   20151124011952
Pldx1 +           meh      ++      ++        ++      ++ Yes++   20151124011952
Reaper_Eternal + meh  ++  ++          ++    --  --  ++     meh    ++     Yes++   20151124011952
RegentsPark + meh     meh   meh meh                     meh   Yes meh 20151126120955
SB_Johnny +                                       No   20151127135737
SilkTork[c] +    ++  ++ meh  (~)  --   meh    (~)  (~)  (~) meh  --  -- meh  ++   meh wk.Y  -- 20151126120955
Sjakkalle +               meh   meh meh           meh     No meh 20151126120955
Smallbones +           meh         meh       meh         Yes   20151126120955
The_owner_of_all + Yes?[d]                      (~)    (~)           Yes   20151127135737
Tryptofish +                                       Yes   20151127113943
Worm_That_Turned +                    --     meh       meh   meh meh   20151126120955
Yngvadottir +    ++  ++       meh    ++                ++     st.Y meh 20151127113943

'unofficial' edit

guide \ candidate: Cal. Cas. Drm. Gam. Gor. Haw. Hul. Kei. Kel. Kev. Kir. Kud. Lfa. Mah. Mar. NEE. Opa. Ric. Thr. Tim. Wil. lastmod
Ched[e] + subst:20240604220528
Floquenbeam         ??   ?? ??         ?? ??   ??   ?? ?? ??   20151123232456
Gerda_Arendt[f][1]  (~)  ++  ++        (~) meh  ++    (~)  (~)  (~)  (~)  (~) meh  ++      ++  (~) 20151123232456
GuerilleroCite error: There are <ref> tags on this page without content in them (see the help page).                                           subst:20240604220528
MurderByDeadcopy[g]       meh meh     meh   meh     meh                 20151124004932
Nick   ?? ?? ??  --  (~) ??  (~)    --  --  ++ ?? ??  -- ??  ++      ++   20151124004932
Salvidrim!       meh     ??           ??             No   20151126120955
WereSpielChequers   ?? ??     ??     ?? ??       ?? ?? ??     meh ?? ??
AuthorOfThisVoterGuide subst:20240604220528


Notes edit

  1. ^ minimum threshold for winning a seat on WP:ARBCOM is 50% thus the pundits predict it is possible the 9th seat will be vacant.
  2. ^ I've rendered, partly following the lead of Ealdgyth's consolidated chart, Collects "recommends" as  Y++ and the "B_passes" are  Y, the "C_passes" are uncolored-passing, with the "fails" rendered as  N.
  3. ^ The markings for SilkTork are *predictions* of the likelihood of successfully being elected, which is very different from *personal* support/neutral/oppose information that most voter-guides provide; apples and oranges, basically.
  4. ^ As the 10th-place choice, following the logic laid out in the strategy-section of this user's voter-guide, Callanecc would become a weak  Y for seat#9.
  5. ^ At the time of this writing, listed as an official voter-guide, but like Guerrillo, does not discuss any specific candidates by name, so moving to the 'unofficial' table for the nonce.
  6. ^ This is an exceedingly rough translation of Gerda's thinking, which necessarily involves a lot of guesswork and reading between the lines; she gives no explicit support-column, and no explicit oppose-column either. Those marked as  Y++ were ones where she boldfaced their answers as being supported, the others are mostly spectrum-guesstimates, which are then re-calibrated to vaguely match the available slots.
  7. ^ Sole criterion:  Y iff legitimately ever blocked, meh if candidate was at least test-blocked, and  N for candidates with clean block-logs.
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