Limits to growth archetype The Limits to Growth systems archetype (also known as Limits to Success) is one of the common system archetype patterns defined as part of the system dynamics discipline.
System dynamics is an approach which strives to understand, describe and optimize nonlinear behaviors of complex systems over time, using tools such as feedback loops in order to find a leverage point of the system. As part of this discipline, several commonly found patters of system behavior were found, named and described in detail. The Limits to Growth Archetype is one of such patterns.
Limits to Growth combines growth with an exogenous or endogenous limit. This Systems archetype was formally identified in in book The Fifth Discipline by Peter Senge, but appeared earlier in World Dynamics[1] by Jay Wright Forrester in 1971 and in "The Limits to Growth"[2] by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. These books have spawned a generation of “World” models that critically examine the policies that deplete natural resources over long periods of time, arguing that we are sowing the seeds of our own future destruction.
These theories argue that growth cannot continue unabated in an unrestricted reinforcing dynamic. Simply put the lesson from Limits to Growth is that something always pushes back. There is no such thing as unrestricted positive reinforcing behavior. There are always limits that eventually make themselves known and felt.[3]
Introduction edit
Real growth processes have inherent limits to growth. Identifying these limits can help avoid problems in the future, whether the problem is overpopulation, increasing demand for a product that cannot be met, or growing a business in a mature market. When growth is desired, but limited, it is always better to find ways to increase the limit before pushing for more growth. Excessive growth in the face of a limit often leads to collapse. Driving the system to the point of collapse can erode the ability to continue after the collapse, for example, by reducing the production capability of a piece of farmland or destroying the reputation of a company.
Classic examples of limits to growth include:[4]
- The collapse of the deer population on the Kaibab plateau and on St. Matthew Island due to overpopulation and the attendant overgrazing of their habitat
- The overshoot and collapse of the human population on Easter Island
- Overgrazing in the Sahel region of Africa by cattle herders
- Overfishing of the oceans by fishermen
- The sharp exodus of America Online subscribers after an intense marketing campaign increased the number of subscribers far beyond their capacity
- The productivity of staff deteriorating as a company grows, due to increased interactions and reporting overhead
- Business growth limited by the size of the potential market
-Yeast cells in the fermentation process, who suffer from both the loss of exogenously supplied sugar and the increase of endogenously produced pollution
Elements of Archetype edit
The Limits to Growth Archetype structure consists of a reinforcing loop and a balancing loop. The growth of balancing loop, after some success, is offset by an action of a balancing loop as growth approaches its limits.
Behavior of Archetype edit
image behavior over time In situations where the Limits to Growth archetype is operating, the reinforcing loop generally operates for some time with little apparent limiting action from the balancing loop. Once the growth reaches a certain level, the slowing action starts to limit the growth that was being experienced. Usually the focus is on the reinforcing loop, which is producing something desirable and the slow down in growth is confusing. The normal reaction is to place more emphasis on the growing action, which then tends to produce no more results, only more confusion. The Limits to Growth archetype structure reaches a point where the results are actually inhibiting further growth.
Effective Strategies edit
As effective strategy is considered planning for limits ahead. It's desirable to anticipate what is going to become a limiting factor for a reinforcing loop, and remove it before it even has a chance to create a substantial impact on growth. By mapping out the growth engines and potential danger points in advance, it is possible to foresee future problems and eliminate them before they become a threat.
If the structure is already at a stage where the limiting factor is interacting with growth, options for limiting negative effects are:
Altering the limiting factor in a way that it no longer interacts with growth.
Finding a way to disconnect the growth from the slowing action so it no longer exists.
Disconnect the slowing action from the results so it can have no affect on growth.
Seven action steps as defined by Braun[3]:
• Identify the growth engines.
• Determine the doubling time of those processes.
• Identify potential limits and balancing loops.
• Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.
• Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and.
the changes required to support growth?
• Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance.
• Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions.
Example – Sales Demands Supprt edit
As an organization undertakes a Marketing Campaign to improve Sales, if successful the increase in Sales should encourage the organization to undertake even more Marketing. This sets up a positive reinforcing loop. This loop has its limits, probably more than one. As Sales increase it is likely that the Support Demand will also increase as there are more customers or more products in the hands of customers. As the Support Demand increases it is not likely to have an impact on Customer Satisfaction until the Support Demand reaches the Support Limit. When this happens the Support Demand in excess of the Support Limit will tend to adversely impact Customer Satisfaction. And, after some period of time, if this negative impact on Customer Satisfaction is not removed the lower level of Customer Satisfaction will detract from Sales.
Example – America-On-Line edit
Similar case is represented by popular example of internet service provider America-On-Line. AOL experienced initial success on a fee-per-minute business model. Eventually competition offered a flat-rate for connecting and accessing the internet. In an effort to recapture their eroding market share and grow number of subscribers, company began an aggressive marketing campaign, making subscribing to service and connecting to the internet easy and attractive.
The campaign turned out to be an enormous success, so much so that the demand entirely overwhelmed their technical capacity to deliver service. Not only were new subscribers alienated, so too were existing subscribers who left in significant numbers.
Related Archetypes edit
The Growth and underinvestment Archetype can be considered to be an elaboration on the Limits to Growth archetype.[5] It adds another feedback loop which effectively elaborates the Limiting State part of the Limits to Success archetype.
Attractiveness Principle is an archetype derived from Limits to Growth. The main difference is that Attractiveness Principle assumes growth is limited with two or more factors.
It is possible that limited shared resources are the source of the limiting factor leading to Tragedy of the commons.
References edit
- ^ JW Forrester. (1971). World dynamics. Productivity Press, Cambridge, MA. ISBN B0006C0PZM
- ^ Donella H. Meadows, Gary. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III. (1972). The Limits to Growth. New York: Universe Books. ISBN 0-87663-165-0
- ^ a b Braun, William (2002), The System Archetypes (PDF)
- ^ Chichakly, Karim (3 December 2009), Limits to Growth, retrieved 29 January 2015
- ^ Bellinger, Gene. "Archetypes". Systems Thinking. Retrieved 31 December 2014.