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Debt-trap diplomacy[1] is a term introduced by Brahma Chellaney (Professor of Strategic Studies at the Centre for Policy Research) in 2017 to explain his analysis of China's One Belt, One Road Initiative or Belt and Road Initiative. Professor Chellaney describes his "debt-trap diplomacy" term as developing nations coming under China's influence when they are not able to pay back the substantial loans granted by China as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Discussions associated with the term "debt-trap diplomacy" regarding China's BRI concept have been principally characterized as either reality or a myth[2][3][4][5].
Relationship of Belt and Road Initiative and Debt-Trap Diplomacy edit
Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative edit
Origins of the Belt and Road Initiative edit
Chinese President Xi Jinping officially announced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) during his September 2013 visit to Kazakhstan and October 2013 visit to Indonesia. Referenced by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Central Asian studies scholar Sun Zhuangzhi as the "new Silk Road" that will "revitalize" the Central Asian civilizations,[6] President Xi envisioned BRI as a collection of infrastructure projects that would stretch from East Asia to Europe.[7][8][9][10][11] Indeed, President Xi called the initiative the "project of the century."[12]
A decade before President Xi's formal BRI announcement, China had already begun a trend of rising exports to a group of BRI countries indicated in Figure 1: Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative.[10] The map (Figure 1) shows in general the countries that may be recipients of China's BRI loans although there is no definite or official list of projects of the Belt and Road Initiative.[12][13][14]
Goals edit
The World Bank explains the China BRI as "a China-led effort to improve connectivity and regional co-operation on a trans-continental scale through large-scale investments."[12]
In President Xi's speech during his 7 September 2013 visit to Kazakhstan, he proposed the BRI concept for the first time -- a trans-Eurasian effort spreading from the Pacific Ocean to the Baltic Sea -- that would enable China and Central Asian countries to build an "economic belt along the Silk Road."[6] Highlights from his speech explain his vision and goals:
- The proposed economic belt would encompass land that has "close to 3 billion people and represents the biggest market in the world with unparalleled potential"[6]
- "A nearby neighbor is better than a distant relative"[6]
- "After the agreement is signed, further discussion should be used to improve cross-border transportation infrastructure and forge our transportation network connecting East Asia, Western Asia and South Asia"[6]
President Xi focused his inaugural BRI speech on economic and infrastructure benefits and improvements, while Yao Peisheng (China's former ambassador to Kazakhstan) said Xi's proposed economic belt will also encompass political and culture efforts that are beyond the economic goals.[6]
BRI and Debt-Trap Diplomacy edit
Professor Brahma Chellaney explains his "debt-trap diplomacy" term as developing nations coming under China's influence when they are not able to pay back the loans granted by China as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chellaney explains that nations already in debt are willing to borrow from China because it is relatively easy to do as compared to borrowing from other nations or international venues such as the International Monetary Fund.[15] Chellaney warns the risk to BRI recipient nations is that they may fall into China's debt-trap diplomacy.[1][15]
Debt-Trap Diplomacy edit
The Debt-Trap Diplomacy: Reality Position edit
New Delhi-based geostrategist and author Brahma Chellaney created the term, "debt-trap diplomacy" in 2017[1] to explain the China and President Xi's BRI effort. Chellaney contends that China:
- gives loans to nations based on strategic locations that are beneficial to China[1][15]
- does not support local economies and instead BRI projects "facilitate Chinese access to natural resources, or to open the market for its low-cost and shoddy export goods"[1]
- benefits when BRI projects fail because it will cause recipient nations to default on loans thus increasing China's leverage over the nations[1][15]
The Debt-Trap Diplomacy: Myth Position edit
In a study conducted under the auspices of the Chatham House - International Affairs Think Tank, researchers Lee Jones and Shahar Hameiri calls the "debt-trap diplomacy" concept a myth.[16] Instead, Jones and Hameiri outlines that China's BRI is not a "well thought-out Chinese grand strategy"[16] because:
- BRI is an economic program and it is the recipient nations' economic positions that determine specific BRI projects[16]
- China's governmental entities responsible to develop BRI financing and loan program are disorganized and lack the ability to coordinate to achieve grand strategy goals or objectives[16]
- recipient nations seek loans from China and determine the specific BRI projects[16]
- corrupt and dishonest leaders of recipient nations are often the cause of these nations defaulting on loans and cause BRI projects to fail[16]
References edit
- ^ a b c d e f Chellaney, Brahma (2017-01-23). "China's Debt-Trap Diplomacy | by Brahma Chellaney". Project Syndicate. Retrieved 2021-07-05.
- ^ Rana, Pradumna Bickram; Ji, Xianbai (2020). "BRI's 'debt trap diplomacy' : reality or myth?".
{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires|journal=(help) - ^ Kershaw, Brett (2021-05-14). "China's 'Debt-Trap Diplomacy' Casts Looming, Authoritarian Shadow on International Order". The Western Journal. Retrieved 2021-07-05.
- ^ Allott, Daniel (2021-05-02). "China's debt-trap diplomacy". TheHill. Retrieved 2021-07-05.
- ^ "Chinese investment in infrastructure is often a diplomatic trap". The Economist. 2019-02-02. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2021-07-05.
- ^ a b c d e f "Xi proposes a 'new Silk Road' with Central Asia[2]". www.chinadaily.com.cn. Retrieved 2021-07-28.
- ^ Wong, Audrye (2019-01-22). "China's economic statecraft under Xi Jinping". Brookings. Retrieved 2021-07-05.
- ^ "Belt and Road Initiative". World Bank. Retrieved 2021-07-28.
- ^ "China's Massive Belt and Road Initiative". Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 2021-07-28.
- ^ a b "How Old is the Belt and Road Initiative? Long Term Patterns of Chinese Exports to BRI Economies". World Bank. Retrieved 2021-07-28.
- ^ Johnson, Christopher (2016-06-01). "President Xi Jinping's "Belt and Road" Initiative: A practical assessment of the Chinese Communist Party's Roadmap for China's Global Resurgence" (PDF). CSIS. Retrieved 2021-07-28.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ a b c "China wants to put itself back at the centre of the world". The Economist. 2020-02-06. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2021-07-28.
- ^ "Belt and Road Initiative". World Bank. Retrieved 2021-07-28.
- ^ "China's overseas investment starts the long climb back". American Enterprise Institute - AEI. Retrieved 2021-07-28.
- ^ a b c d "Why do so many Asian nations want to be in China's debt?". Nikkei Asia. Retrieved 2021-07-28.
- ^ a b c d e f "Debunking the Myth of 'Debt-trap Diplomacy'". Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank. 2020-08-19. Retrieved 2021-07-28.