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Escalation Ladder is a theory created by Herman Kahn during the Cold War.
In total, this ladder has forty-four rungs, and is broken down into seven units with varying numbers of rungs inside.
Kahn’s Escalation ladder or otherwise known as “A Generalized (or Abstract) Scenario is as followed:
It would start with a disagreement, for example, the Cold War.
Solemn and Formal Declarations
edit- May be in the form of legislative, formal executive announcements, or diplomatic notes. This is a pre-emptive escalation tactic.
Political, Economic, and Diplomatic Gestures
edit- Unfair, unfriendly, and discourteous acts are carried out against the opponent to punish or convey messages. If the acts become hostile, they are known are “Retortions”.
Ostensible Crisis
edit- One or both parties set the language of the crisis, if not resolved the ladder is climbed.
Traditional Crises (Nuclear War Is Unthinkable Threshold)
editDramatic Military Confrontations
edit- A direct confrontation
Harassing Acts of Violence
edit- Using typically illegal acts of violence to exhaust or confuse the enemy and their allies.
“Legal” Harassment- Retortions
edit- Harassing the opponent’s property, or people legally. The harassment can be extremely provocative or hostile.
Significant Mobilization
edit- Shows the other side that they are willing to call more forces to the conflict if needed.
Show of For
edit- One or both sides make it known that they can and will show force if needed.
Hardening of Positions—Confrontation of Wills
edit- When the situation gets coercive, deliberate stake increases happen. For example, joining issues to make it harder for the other side to believe that they cannot back down.
Intense Crises (No Nuclear Use Threshold)
editIntense Crises happens when a large number of people believe nuclear war is upon them, though no weapons are deployed.
“Peaceful” Word-Wide Embargo or Blockade
edit“Justifiable” Counterforce Attack
edit- Used to degrade the military morale or capability of the opponent.
Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force
edit- Using weapons that do no obvious damage, but is deemed reckless. It is used to punish the enemy for a previous act or pre-emptively for one that has not happened yet.
Limited Evacuation (Approximately 20 percent)
editNuclear “Ultimatums”
editBarely Nuclear War
editDeclaration of Limited Conventional War
editLarge Compound Escalation
editLarge Conventional War (or Actions)
editSuper- Ready Status
editProvocative Breaking Off of Diplomatic Relations
editBizarre Crises (Central Sanctuary Threshold)
editEvacuation (Approximately 70 percent)
edit- The situation is very close to a large-scale war.
Unusual, Provocative, and Significant Countermeasures
editLocal Nuclear War- Military
editDeclaration of Limited Nuclear War
editLocal Nuclear War- Exemplary
edit- A warning to the opponent that nuclear force can be used.
Exemplary Central Attacks (Central War Threshold)
editReciprocal Reprisals
editComplete Evacuation (approximately 95 percent)
editExemplary Attacks on Population
editExemplary Attacks Against Property
editExemplary Attacks on Military
editDemonstration Attack on Zone of Interior
edit- Bombing of harmless areas that does dramatic and unmistakable damage to the topography
Military Central Wars (City Targeting Threshold)
editUnmodified Counterforce Attack
editCounterforce-with-avoidance attack
edit- This would involve attacking anything the enemy has without causing major collateral damage to civilians.
- For examples, the Soviets would need to avoid major naval bases and instead attack a smaller city.
Constrained Disarming Attack
editConstrained Force-Reduction Salvo
editSlow-Motion Counterforce War
editSlow-Motion Counter- “Property” War
editFormal Declaration of “General” War
editCivilian Central Wars
editSpasm or insensate War
edit- To try and get the other side to stop due to the other side being out of weapons.
Some other kinds of controlled General War
editCivilian Devastation Attack
editAugmented Disarming Attack
edit- A bonus attack for an increase in collateral counter value damage
Counter value Salvo
edit- Shooting a large number of missiles at civilian targets
Slow-Motion Counter City War
editThe ladder would end with the aftermath of the conflict
References
edit- ^ Jones, Rodney W. (2017-04-19). "Nuclear Escalation Ladders in South Asia".
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