User:I edit things that come to mind/sandbox/Airstrikes on Snake Island

Air and Naval strikes on Snake Island
Part of 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Date 2 May 2022 (2 years and 1 week) Location Snake Island, Ukraine 45°15′18″N 30°12′15″E Status Ongoing
Belligerents
Ukraine	Russia
Commanders and leaders
Unknown	Unknown
Units involved
Ukrainian Armed Forces Ukrainian Air Force Ukrainian Navy	Russian Armed Forces Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet Russian garrisons

The Ukrainian Air Force conducted a series of airstrikes on the Russian-occupied Snake Island. The Ukrainian Navy later sunk a Russian tug boat that was en route to Snake Island.

Background

Main article: Attack on Snake Island

Snake Island was captured by the Russian Navy on the first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian garrisons famously replied to Russian Navy's demand to surrender with "Russian warship, go fuck yourself". After capturing the island, Russian forces began to occupy and fortify the island.

• https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/after-losing-a-flagship-russian-navy-demonstrates-air-defense-power

Airstrikes

On May 2,

Analysis

The loss of the Moskva cruiser is said to have deteriorated Russian naval threat, particularly its air defense, in the Black Sea. It is believed that with the loss of such a large vessel and the air defense void left behind for the Russian Black Sea fleet, the Ukrainian forces became embolden to carry out these attacks on the Russian-occupied Snake Island. Coupled with the stalling and reversal of the Russian advances from the Battle of Mykolaiv, the Russian forces on Snake Island became increasingly isolated and vulnerable. Russian forces have made efforts to improve their air defenses on Snake Island following the loss of the Moskva and Ukrainian airstrikes on May. These include deploying several Pantsir and Tor missile system.

Ukrainian intelligence have claimed that out of 40 Russian officers deployed to Snake Island, only eight have returned alive back to Sevastopol. Ukrainian intelligence and a Wagner mercenary have also claimed that Russian Special Operations Forces were killed on the island.

Through out the campaign, both sides have often put forth claims of attacks and damage inflicted on their opponents. The Drive, a sister publication to The War Zone, have expressed doubt on the Russian claims of repeatedly repelling Ukrainian amphibious assault, noting that such claims are never supported with hard evidence. Conversely, Ukrainian claims are usually supported with satellite imagery or combat footage of the operation.

Despite being a small and almost unremarkable island, control over Snake Island has been described as strategically valuable. Symbolically, the island represents a symbol of Ukrainian resistance due to the famous exchange between the Ukrainian garrisons and the Moskva at the onset of the invasion. Location wise, Russia's control over the island would it to establish long-range air defense, cruise missiles, and electronic warfare assets to cover the north-western part of the Black Sea and south of Ukraine, as well as help the Russian navy reinforce its naval blockade and control the flow civilian vessels. This is particularly true for the city of Odessa, as most of Ukraine's agriculture export comes out of the port of Odessa. Additionally, Russia's control over the island would allow the country to reinforce its presence with Transnistria, a Russian controlled breakaway region of Moldova. Furthermore, a Russian controlled Snake Island represents a major security threat to NATO as the island is only 28 miles or 45 km away from Romania. British naval analyst Jonathan Bentham and Romanian historian Dorin Dobrincu believe that if Russia deploys missile systems, such as the S-400, NATO southern flank would be serious danger. Russian military-political analyst Alexander Mikhailov stated that with Snake Island Russia can control and blockade naval traffic between the north-western Black Sea and the Danube Delta. For Romania, a Russia blockade of Romania's ports would pose a major economic risk. Romania's Euro-Atlantic Resilience Centre believes Russia intentions for capturing Snake Island is to annex it in order to control as many shipping routes as possible that leads to Bosphorus Strait in Turkey.

Ukraine's usage of the TB2 drones to attack Snake Island has highlighted the increased importance of drone warfare and the reputation of TB2's service record. The successful attacks from the TB2s has stunned observers, as on paper, the drones were expected to be vulnerable to Russian air defense systems. Retired naval officer and defense analyst Tayfun Ozberk stated that there are several reasons for the TB2's success on Snake Island. First, while not fully stealthy, the TB2s low radar cross-section, low altitude operation, and slow speed makes it difficult for radars to track. Second, the drone's deep learning algorithm makes it able to learn and improve its performance on the next mission. Third, the TB2's modular design allows it to be assembled and dissembled quickly in area's larger aircraft or UAVs can't operate. This would make it easier for the drones to avoid destruction when Russian forces strike Ukrainian air bases. Fourth, the TB2 is said to be resilient in complex electronic warfare environment. This, combined with Russian personnel turning off their radar and electronic equipment to reduce their radio frequency emission, created a perfect storm for Ukrainian TB2s to inflict serious damage on the Russian forces.