User:Gronkmeister/Sandbox

Chechnya & Iraq

"It's amazing," said Sergei Markov, director of the Institute for Political Studies in Moscow. 
"The Americans are acting in Iraq as if Chechnya never happened, as if there are no lessons to learn."

Chechnya Timeline

• Chechnya starts as a province of Caucasus, a small area southwest of mainland Russia.
  • During the Russian Revolution of 1917, Dagestan (including Chechnya) declares its independence.
  • After the formation of the USSR, Chechnyan muslims return to their homeland, hoping for eventual independence.
• In 1991 the Soviet union Collapses, and 14 regions become independent nations. However, Boris Yeltsin refuses to recognize Chechnya as independent and sends troops. Yeltsin then sends troops to the Chechnyan border only to find a militarized group waiting.
• 1994 - Chechnya asserts its independence, but is criticized for kidnapping for ransom. Eventually Russia invades and the first Chechnyan war ensues.
  • War rages for two years, but eventually Chechnyan military and rebels push back Russian military. 70,000 casualties on both sides.
  • Chechnya still refuses to abide by Russian rule, terrorist bomb Moscow and move into another country to promote independence there.
• Second Chechnyan War starts in 1999
  • This war Russia succeeds in occupying Grozny, and while occupying Grozny, they completly demolish their capital, which includes their Oil infrastructure.
    • Despite Russian claims of victory, Russian troops are forced to stay. Rebels fight back while Russia is being investigated by UN for human rights violations.

Continue in 2002 on Timeline Sheet

Main Difference

Regardless of beliefs on the Iraq war, Russia is in Chechnya to hold onto it permanently, and the US is in Iraq, but has no interest in incorporating Iraq as part of the US.

• Russia attempts to abolish Chechnyan government by setting up weak leadership, US struggles to find strong leadership until it is too late.

Similarities

• In 1923, Russian Troops set up the Chechen-Ingush Republic.
  • US is the culprit for helping put Hussein in power.

• Chechnyan military is accused of taking hostages.
  • Iraqi terrorist groups take journalists hostage.

• Chechnyan military leader Dudayev is killed by Russian military.
  • Hussein is captured by US troops and taken out of power.

Although one would think that removing a dictator would help solve problems
chaos ensues following both deaths.

• • Chechnyans take hostages after their president is killed.

• Following Dudayev's death, Chechnyan forces push back Russia and force a stalemate even though victory is declared.
  • MAY 1, 2003: Mission Accomplished is aired, but we are still Iraq today.

Mission Accomplished Pic

• • • Chechnya rebels refuse Russian authority. This could be due to human rights violations and prohibition to practice Islam freely. For every prisoner we torture, more militant Islamists are recruited to fight in Baghdad.

• At the start of the Second Chechnyan war, Islamists look to spread fundamentalism to a neighboring country.
  • Iran supports the Iraqi war due to their theocracy, and most American's view the Muslim religion as a violent oppressive religion.

Almost like the Domino Effect

• Oil, Chechnya's only major export, has its refineries destroyed when Grozny is demolished. Russia refuses to pay for any of the damage it has caused unless Chechnya gives up its quest for independence. This cripples Chechnyan nationalists, who cannot negotiate without independence first.
  • Iraq war has obvious involvement with Oil.

• Again, Russia declares victory but stays in Chechnya. Almost daily attacks occur and insurgents kill almost a dozen troops a week in 2002 2003.
  • Every day the news reports bombs going off under troop transports that kill American soldiers.
    • Both Russia and the US respond to these hit and run attacks by sweeping through neighborhoods and killing "hostiles" who are usually civilian in appearance. Obviously this does not help.

• Both Russia and US hand pick "leaders" who almost always fail at their duties.
  • Russia see's itself as protecting their government from falling into pieces, US see's itself as a liberator, but both Chechnya and Iraq feel they are being occupied.

"Iraqi's will always hate Americans, no matter what Americans do for them," Alexei Malashenko,
expert on Chechnya and the middle east at Carnegie endowment for international peace.

Beslan Story

• Chechnyan Rebels, Iraqi Insurgents, Russian Militants, and US soldiers all kill civilians,

Can anyone explain why all 4 of these groups would harm civilians, or at least any of them individually? Is it just accidental?

• • These groups kill civilians mostly as a tool to instill fear, and portray desperation for the rebellion. Or on accident?
    • Unfortunately, rebels killing civilians shows them as barbarians rather than desperate for their cause, and military murders of civilians cause more guerillas to join in the fight in anger.

Group Discussion

The Chechnyan conflict came up before the Iraq war, which allows the US to learn from Russia's mistakes, however, we obviously haven't. Before we tell you our opinion, each table has to represent either the Chechnyan Rebels, Russian Government, Iraqi Insurgents, or US government. If you come up with something decent, you get donuts.

NO EASY ANSWERS Rebels-Cannot just let Russia take over, this would mean no free islam, free trade, or ability for individual internation recognization.

Russia-Losing Chechnya without negotiation means a lose of oil, and more importantly, a free pass for other small republics to fight against Russia for indepence, which could possibly cripple Russia.

Iraq-Giving up Muslim beliefs or stopping terrorist attacks would be stupid. Terrorism is iraq's only weapon against the traditional warfare juggernaut of the US.

US-No troop withdrawals, the US is stuck in Iraq now, either reorganize the war from the beginning or try to fix it from today.

Opinion

Rebels- Chechnya needs its independence before negotiating with Russia. Grozny and oil refineries still lie in ruin, so Russia can almost blackmail Chechnya into being subservient. Once Chechnya is independent, the two countries will be forced to work together peacefully.

Russia- Has to give independence first without terms, then negotiate with hardline oil contracts and be forced to help rebuild Chechnya's infrastructure for a small return profit.

Iraq - Not sure, may be too late to fix now, at least anytime soon.

US - Had to start the war as more of a police action, and take Hussein out of power without destroying Baghdad in the process. Democracy must be instilled for a long term solution.