Climate change and effects on plant disease
editSince plant diseases are so closely tied to environmental factors, global climate change will inevitably have an impact upon them. Despite this fact, it seems that relatively little attention has been given to the effects of climate change on plant disease. Garrett et al. (2006) reviewed the effects of climate change on plant disease,suggesting that plants likely will not be able to adapt to climate change as rapidly as their pathogens might. Pathogens are able to reproduce very quickly and many move readily by wind or water over long distances (Agrios, 2004). These abilities might lend themselves to pathogen's quick ability to adapt to a changing climate (Garrett et al., 2006).
Effects of climate change on plant disease will likely be broad, ranging from gene expression and microclimates, to major shifts in the occurrence of pathogens globally as precipitation patterns or temperatures change (Garrett et al. 2006). These changes in climate may lead to necessary adjustments in strategies to avoid disease. Warmer temperatures in the Great Plains could mean that stem rust of wheat (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) could become an important problem again. Currently winter wheat in the Great Plains is harvested before temperatures reach levels that favor stem rust. This could change if temperatures increase. Other effects may be seen at the individual plant level, effects on the plant's ability to fend off a pathogen attack when under stress from lack of water or heat (Garrett et al., 2006). Microclimate effects may be manifested in changes in the plant canopies due to altered CO2 or more moisture from higher plant transpiration rates.
New areas such as remote sensing will likely prove useful. Remote sensing has been used to study phenology since the 1980s (Reed, 2006). Using remote sensing, phenology can be studied over large areas by a small group of people. Multiple years can be compared quickly and visually. Challenges will still exist when using remote sensing though. Determining a plant species or disease using remotely sensed data can be troublesome and still requires ground truthing.
Future directions
edit- It is likely that new models can be developed that predict plant disease more accurately as better global climate change models are developed.
- New technologies will become more useful, from genomic analysis to remote sensing and GIS, more powerful computers will be able to make use of more data to give a more complete picture of what may happen.
References
edit- Agrios, G.N. 2004 (copyright 2005). Plant Pathology, 5th Ed. Academic Press, San Diego.
- Garrett K. A., Dendy, S.P., Frank, E.E., Rouse, M.N., and Travers, S.E. (2006) Climate change effects on plant disease: genomes to ecosystems. Annual Review of Phytopathology. 44: 489-509.
- Reed, B. C. (2006), Trend analysis of time-series phenology of North America derived from satellite data, Giscience & Remote Sensing 43, 24--38.