User:Cyclone1/Post-Analysis

This page represents the personal opinions and research of the user. Not NOAA, the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, or anyone else. Please do not cite it as such.

In the page that follows, I discuss a few "tropical" storms since 1983 that I feel may not have been correctly classified. I am simply using Satellite images, (more specifically GIBBS images) and, I know, I know... Satellite images tell very little about the nature of a storm. Oh, well, I'm doing it anyway. Atlantic only...

1983

All storms seem fine.

1984

"Tropical Storm" Edouard

This storm had supposedly formed and dissipated without moving within 24 hours only 20 miles from land. Likely story. I took this into investigation via GIBBS images, and my results are as follows:

On September 13, an elongated area of low pressure was centered over Mexico. It began to help foster a developing area of convection in the Gulf. By later that day, the convection seemed to dwindle, and any sign of a developed circulation was over land. At 00:00 UTC on September 14, Best track shows that a Tropical Depression had formed over the Gulf, but this image of the Earth at that time shows only a weak circulation in what could be considered weak convection. A few hours later, it was considered a tropical storm, but no ciruclation was apparent. Late that day, a weak circulation could be found, but it seemed to be only half of a circulation, much of which was overland. During this time, it breifly appeared to be a Tropical Depression. By early on the 15, most evidence of a circulation was gone. The system fell apart quickly.

VERDICT: Weak Tropical Depression at the very most.

1985

All storms seem fine.

1986

All storms seem fine.

1987

All storms seem fine.

1988

"Tropical Storm" Ernesto

Here is the scenario, IMO, of what happened with Tropical Storm Ernesto.

On September 3rd, a tropical depression formed. Early on September 4, Best Track says the depression developed into a Tropical Storm. By mid-day, September 4, Best Track says Ernesto was a developing tropical storm, but in this image, Ernesto appears to be more of a developing frontal system. 3 hours later, it only looks more extratropical, though Best Track still has it as a tropical storm. Later that day, it became obviously extratropical, despite Best Track calling it tropical for another two advisories.

VERDICT: Maybe briefly a tropical or subtropical storm, but mostly extratropical. Best Track should have declared this storm extratropical long before it did.