The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the United States and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to win.[1][2][3]
Some of the items on the checklist involve qualitative judgment, and therefore the system relies heavily on the knowledge and analytical skill of whoever attempts to apply it. Using the system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the popular vote outcomes of each presidential election from 1984 to 2012. Though Lichtman claims he called the 2016 election correctly based on the 13 keys, his 2016 book and paper stated that the keys only referred to the popular vote, which Donald Trump lost.[4][5][6][7] He switched to just predicting the winner across all publications after the 2016 election, stating recent demographics changes give Democrats an advantage in the popular vote in close elections, and correctly called the outcome of the 2020 election.[8][9]
Lichtman argues that the system’s reliability proves that American voters select their next president according to how well the country was governed in the preceding four years and that election campaigns have little, if any, meaningful effect on American voters. If American voters are satisfied with the governance of the country, they will re-elect the president or elect their party's nominee, but if they are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the challenging party.[10][11]
Development
While attending a dinner party at Caltech in 1981, Allan Lichtman met Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a leading Russian geophysicist. Both men were Fairchild Scholars at Caltech.[12] Keilis-Borok was interested in applying his prediction techniques to democratic political systems. This was not possible for him to do within the Soviet Union, which was a single-party autocracy, and a guest at the party referred him to Lichtman. Lichtman attracted Keilis-Borok's interest because he was a quantitative historian who mathematically analyzed trends in American history. Lichtman agreed to help Keilis-Borok apply his prediction techniques to American presidential elections.[13]
Lichtman and Keilis-Borok examined data collated from every presidential election from 1860 to 1980 to identify factors that seemed predictive of election outcomes. From his own studies of American presidential elections, Lichtman had come to the conclusion that voters are in fact not swayed by election campaigns and instead vote according to how well the president has performed in office. Lichtman also noticed that even if the president did not seek re-election, his successes and failures would help or hinder the prospects of the nominee of his party: these insights shaped how he and Keilis-Borok conducted their research.[14]
Lichtman and Keilis-Borok published their prediction model in a 1981 paper: at this stage, their system had 12 keys, including keys that considered the number of terms the incumbent party had held the presidency, and if the incumbent party had won a popular vote majority in the previous election. Another four keys were ultimately cut that considered political ideology, the dominant party of the era, if there was a serious contest for the challenging party nomination, and if the country was in wartime or peacetime.[15][16]
The system was later modified to 13 keys, with the tenure key and the popular vote majority key both replaced by the party mandate key and the foreign/military failure and success keys being added.
Some of the keys are objective, such as economic growth, while some are subjective, such as candidate charisma.[17]
The thirteen keys
The system consists of 13 true/false statements pertaining to circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.[18]
| # | Name | Description[18] |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Party mandate | After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. |
| 2 | No primary contest | There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. |
| 3 | Incumbent seeking re-election | The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. |
| 4 | No third party | There is no significant third party or independent campaign. |
| 5 | Strong short-term economy | The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. |
| 6 | Strong long-term economy | Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. |
| 7 | Major policy change | The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. |
| 8 | No social unrest | There is no sustained social unrest during the term. |
| 9 | No scandal | The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. |
| 10 | No foreign or military failure | The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. |
| 11 | Major foreign or military success | The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. |
| 12 | Charismatic incumbent | The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. |
| 13 | Uncharismatic challenger | The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. |
Key 1: Party mandate
Key 1 (party mandate) is turned true if the incumbent party has achieved a net gain of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the previous presidential and midterm elections combined. For example, Lichtman refers to the 1982 U.S. House elections in the middle of Ronald Reagan's first term when the Republicans lost 27 seats: as the Republicans had gained 35 seats in 1980, this left them with a net gain of eight seats, turning the key true.
Lichtman says that midterm elections reflect the performance of the incumbent party and are an indicator of nationwide electoral trends. Additionally, if the incumbent party performs poorly, a large loss of House seats can also affect the president's ability to enact policy, which can result in other keys turning false.
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has won the popular vote on 12 of the 14 occasions when it achieved a net gain of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, compared to the previous midterm elections, losing the Electoral College in 2000, with the exceptions being in 1860 and 1952. The incumbent party has lost the popular vote on 14 of the 27 occasions that key 1 was false, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 1888 and 2016 and winning the Electoral College in 1876, with the exceptions being in 1872, 1900, 1916, 1924, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1964, 1972, 1996 and 2012. [19]
Key 2: No primary contest
Key 2 (no primary contest) is turned true if the incumbent party nominee wins at least two-thirds of the total delegate vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention, with no deep and vocal party divisions.
Lichtman says the incumbent party's ability to unite behind a consensus nominee is reflective of successful governance, whereas a contested nomination is indicative of internal party strife caused by weak governance.
Notable primary contests that turned the key false occurred in 1860 (the Democrats split between Northern Democrats and Southern Democrats over slavery, with two conventions and 59 ballots being required to nominate Stephen A. Douglas), 1896 (due to a dispute between the Bourbon wing of the Democrats led by sitting president Grover Cleveland and the populist wing of the Democrats led by William Jennings Bryan, the convention required five ballots to nominate Bryan), 1912 (the Republicans split between the conservatives of President William Howard Taft and the progressives of former President Theodore Roosevelt, with Taft being nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the convention with only 52% of the delegate vote after progressives walked out), and in 1968 (there were deep and vocal divisions within the Democrats over the Vietnam War, including strong opposition by the anti-Vietnam War wing of the Democrats to the nomination of Vice President Hubert Humphrey).
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party won the popular vote on 23 of the 28 occasions when the key was true, losing the Electoral College in 1888 and 2000, with the exceptions being in 1932, 1960, 1992, 2008 and 2020. The incumbent party has lost the popular vote on 11 of the 13 occasions that key 2 was false, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 2016 and winning the Electoral College in 1876, with the exception being in 1880. Of the 13 keys, Lichtman has said that this key is the single best predictor of an election outcome.
Conversely, a serious contest for the challenging party's nomination does not harm its nominee's election prospects, as a weak incumbent party often results in a crowded challenging party primary field in anticipation of a winnable general election.[20][21] Landslide challenging party popular vote victories coming after a serious contest for the party's nomination include those of Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1860 (10.13 points), Democrat Woodrow Wilson in 1912 (18.67 points), Republican Warren G. Harding in 1920 (26.17 points), and Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 (17.76 points).[22][23]
Key 3: Incumbent seeking re-election
Lichtman says an incumbent president seeking re-election has several advantages, such as the ability to set the national agenda, and will often attract much more media attention than a non-incumbent. The president can also benefit from the rally 'round the flag effect in times of crisis.
Lichtman also says that presidents running for re-election will rarely face the strongest candidates from the challenging party, as they typically refrain from running unless the president is seen as very vulnerable.
As of the 2020 election, when there was an incumbent president running for re-election and key 3 was true, the president won the popular vote on 18 of 25 occasions, losing the Electoral College in 1888. Of the 16 open seat elections (when key 3 was false), the incumbent party lost the popular vote on nine occasions, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 2000 and 2016 and winning the Electoral College in 1876, with the exceptions being in 1868, 1880, 1908, 1928 and 1988.
The incumbency key also correlates with key 2 (no primary contest), as it usually guarantees there will be no serious contest for the incumbent party's nomination. As of the 2020 election, when the president was running for re-election and faced no serious contest for their party's nomination, thus turning key 2 true, the president won the popular vote on 18 of 21 occasions, losing the Electoral College in 1888, with the exceptions being in 1932, 1992 and 2020.
If there is a serious primary contest to the president, it signifies major discontent within their own party and thus the broader electorate. On all four occasions when the president was running for re-election and key 2 was turned false, in 1892, 1912, 1976 and 1980, the president was defeated.[19]
Key 4: No third party
Key 4 (no third party) is turned false if there is a major candidate other than the nominees of the Democrats and the Republicans.
American presidential elections since 1860 have largely been de facto binary contests between Democrats and Republicans, as no third party candidate has come close to winning.[24] Lichtman says that if a third party candidate is unusually popular, it signals major discontent with the performance of the incumbent party and counts against them: he defines third parties as either perennial (having small and loyal constituencies) or insurgent (rising in response to particular circumstances).[24]
Retrospectively, the key was turned false if a single third party candidate won 5% or more of the national popular vote or there was a significant split in the incumbent party: for example, in 1948, Henry A. Wallace and Strom Thurmond both split from the Democrats and ran notable insurgent campaigns, turning the key false for President Harry S. Truman despite no third party candidate winning 5% of the popular vote.
For upcoming elections, key 4 is turned false if a single third party candidate consistently polls at 10% or more, indicating they are likely to receive 5% or more of the national popular vote: third party candidates typically underperform their polling by around half, with Lichtman saying they tend to fade in the voting booth as voters focus on the major party candidates.[25] Key 4 is the only key that concerns any polling of candidates.[26]
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has been defeated on six of the nine occasions when there has been a significant third party candidate, with the exceptions being in 1924, 1948 and 1996. The incumbent party has won the popular vote on 22 of the 32 occasions that key 4 was true, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 1888, 2000 and 2016 and winning the Electoral College in 1876, with the exceptions being in 1884, 1896, 1920, 1932, 1952, 1960, 1976, 2008 and 2020.[19]
Keys 5 and 6: Strong long-term and short-term economy
Key 5 (strong short-term economy) is turned false if the economy is, or is widely perceived to be, in recession during the election campaign.
Lichtman cites the early 1990s recession as an example: the recession ended in March 1991, but a Gallup poll in September 1992 found that 79% of respondents believed the economy was still in recession, turning the key false for George H. W. Bush.
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has won the popular vote on 25 of the 31 occasions that key 5 was true, losing the Electoral College in 1888, 2000 and 2016, with the exceptions being in 1860, 1892, 1912, 1952, 1968 and 1976. The incumbent party has lost the popular vote on all ten occasions that the economy was, or was widely perceived to be, in recession during the election campaign, only winning the Electoral College in 1876.
Key 6 (strong long-term economy) is turned true if the real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms: Lichtman states that slow economic growth is indicative of an administration's lack of strength.
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has won the popular vote on 17 of the 22 occasions that key 6 was true, losing the Electoral College in 1888, 2000 and 2016, with the exceptions being in 1860, 1892, 1912, 1968 and 1980). The incumbent party has lost the popular vote on 11 of the 19 occasions that key 6 was false, winning the Electoral College in 1876, with the exceptions being in 1864, 1908, 1916, 1948, 1972, 1984, 2004 and 2012.
The incumbent party has won the popular vote on 17 of the 21 occasions when both economy keys were true, losing the Electoral College in 1888, 2000 and 2016, with the exceptions being in 1860, 1892, 1912 and 1968. On all nine occasions when both economy keys were false, the incumbent party lost the popular vote, only winning the Electoral College in 1876.[19]
Key 7: Major policy change
Key 7 (major policy change) is turned true if the incumbent administration redirects the course of government or enacts a major policy change that has broad effects on the country's commerce, welfare or outlook: it does not matter whether the change is popular with the public, nor does it matter what ideological mold it was cast from. Abraham Lincoln abolishing slavery, Franklin D. Roosevelt enacting the New Deal, and Barack Obama enacting the Affordable Care Act were policy changes that turned the key true.[18]
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has won re-election on 15 of the 19 occasions that key 7 was true, with the exceptions being in 1892, 1920, 1968 and 2020. The incumbent party has lost the popular vote on 12 of the 22 occasions that key 7 was false, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 1888, 2000 and 2016 and winning the Electoral College in 1876, with the exceptions being in 1872, 1928, 1956, 1972, 1988, 1996 and 2004.
This key often correlates with other keys: for example, Herbert Hoover's failure to take vigorous action during the Great Depression prolonged the Depression, which in turn led to widespread social unrest, Hoover's Republicans having a large loss of House seats in the midterm elections, and the nomination of a charismatic challenger in Franklin D. Roosevelt.[27]
Key 8: No social unrest
Key 8 (no social unrest) is turned false if there is widespread violent unrest that is sustained or leaves critical issues unresolved by the time of the election campaign, making the voters call into serious question the stability of the country.
The American Civil War, the racial and anti-Vietnam War protests of 1968, and the protests of 2020 triggered by the murder of George Floyd were incidents of unrest that were sufficiently serious and widespread to turn the key false. By contrast, the Great Railroad Strike of 1877, the 1980 Miami race riots and the 1992 Los Angeles riots were too localized to turn the key false.[27]
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has lost the popular vote on seven of the 11 occasions that there was sustained social unrest during the term, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 1888, with the exceptions being in 1864, 1868 and 1872. The incumbent party has won the popular vote on 22 of the 30 occasions that key 8 was true, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 2000 and 2016 and winning the Electoral College in 1876, with the exceptions being in 1884, 1912, 1952, 1960, 1976, 1980, 1992 and 2008.
Key 9: No scandal
Key 9 (no scandal) is turned false if there is bipartisan recognition of serious impropriety that is directly linked to the president, such as widespread corruption in the Cabinet and/or officials of an incumbent administration, or presidential misconduct resulting in a bipartisan impeachment.
By contrast, the voters ignore allegations of wrongdoing that appear to be the product of partisan politicking or are not directly linked to the president: for example, the impeachment of Andrew Johnson in 1868 and the Iran-Contra affair during Ronald Reagan's second term did not turn the key false.
While the Watergate scandal began during Republican President Richard Nixon's first term, it did not affect Nixon's re-election bid in 1972 since the voters believed at the time that it was political point-scoring by the Democrats. After Nixon's re-election, new information came to light that implicated him in the scandal and raised concerns among Republicans, turning the key false: the scandal ultimately resulted in Nixon's resignation, and contributed to the Republicans' defeat in 1976.[28]
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has lost the popular vote on four of the six occasions that the incumbent administration was tainted by major scandal, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 2000 and winning the Electoral College in 1876, with the exception being in 1924. The incumbent party has won the popular vote on 23 of the 35 occasions that key 9 was true, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 1888 and 2016, with the exceptions being in 1860, 1884, 1892, 1896, 1912, 1920, 1932, 1960, 1968, 1980, 1992 and 2008.
Keys 10 and 11: Foreign or military failure and success
Key 10 (no foreign or military failure) is turned false if a failure occurs that is perceived to undermine the standing of the United States and/or erode trust in the president's leadership. Lichtman cites the attack on Pearl Harbor under Franklin D. Roosevelt, the botched Bay of Pigs invasion under John F. Kennedy, North Vietnamese victory in the Vietnam War under Gerald Ford, and the Iranian hostage crisis under Jimmy Carter as failures that turned the key false. By contrast, failed diplomatic initiatives, such as Dwight D. Eisenhower's failure to negotiate a nuclear test ban treaty with the Soviet Union, will not turn the key false.
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has been defeated on seven of the 11 occasions that the incumbent administration suffered a major failure in foreign or military affairs, with the exceptions being in 1944, 1948, 1964 and 2004. The incumbent party has won the popular vote on 21 of the 30 occasions that key 10 was true, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 1888, 2000, and 2016 and winning the Electoral College in 1876, with the exceptions being in 1860, 1884, 1892, 1896, 1912, 1932, 1992 and 2020.
Key 11 (major foreign or military success) is turned true if an achievement is seen as improving the prestige and interests of the United States. Lichtman cites the formation of NATO under Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower negotiating an armistice to the Korean War, John F. Kennedy's handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the killing of Osama bin Laden under Barack Obama as successes that turned the key true.[19]
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has won re-election on 17 of the 21 occasions when it achieved a major success in foreign or military affairs, with the exceptions being in 1920, 1952, 1980 and 1992. The incumbent party has lost the popular vote on 12 of the 20 occasions that key 11 was false, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College in 1888, 2000, and 2016 and winning the Electoral College in 1876, with the exceptions being in 1880, 1936, 1940, 1984 and 1996.
The incumbent party has won re-election on 13 of the 14 occasions that both foreign and military affairs keys were true, with the exception being in 1992. On all four occasions that both foreign and military affairs keys were false, in 1960, 1968, 1976 and 2008, the incumbent party was defeated.
Keys 12 and 13: Candidate charisma
Key 12 (charismatic incumbent) is turned true if the incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero, while key 13 (uncharismatic challenger) is turned false if the challenging party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Key 13 is the only key that pertains to the challenging party.
Lichtman defines a charismatic candidate as one with an extraordinarily persuasive or dynamic personality that gives him or her broad appeal that extends to voters outside their party's base. Having studied the political careers of all historical presidential candidates, Lichtman found that James G. Blaine, William Jennings Bryan, Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama had charisma that was exceptional enough to make a measurable difference in their political fortunes. By contrast, Lichtman found that while Donald Trump had an intense appeal, it was with only a narrow slice of the electorate, as opposed to the broad appeal that Ronald Reagan had with traditionally Democratic voters.[29]
Lichtman has said that it is possible for candidates to lose their charismatic status: William Jennings Bryan was seen as charismatic and inspirational in 1896 and 1900, but his voter appeal had faded and he had become the subject of frequent press ridicule in 1908, while Barack Obama exuded charisma in 2008 but failed to have the same success in connecting with the voters in 2012.
Lichtman defines a candidate as a national hero if they are seen by the public as having played a critical role in the success of a national endeavor: he found that Ulysses S. Grant and Dwight D. Eisenhower were seen as national heroes, as both were great war leaders instrumental to major American victories.[30] By contrast, he said that while many Americans admired John McCain for his military service, he was not seen as a national hero because he had not led the country through war.[31]
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has won re-election on eight of the ten occasions that key 12 was true, with the exceptions being in 1884 and 1896. The incumbent party has been defeated on five of the six occasions that key 13 was false, with the exception being in 1900.
Retrospective application to elections (1860–1980)
While developing the keys, Lichtman retrospectively applied them to every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980.
Republican President Theodore Roosevelt's election in 1904 is the only occasion where all 13 keys were true for the incumbent party, while the elections of 1876 and 1960 both had nine false keys against the incumbent party (the Republicans in both years): there were also nine false keys against the incumbent Republicans in 2008, an election the keys predicted prospectively.
In 29 of the 31 elections, the keys corresponded with the elected president,[32] with the exceptions being:
- In 1876, when there were nine false keys against the incumbent Republicans, indicating the defeat of Republican nominee Rutherford B. Hayes. Democratic nominee Samuel J. Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, but an Electoral Commission declared Hayes the winner of the Electoral College by a single vote in a disputed election, and Hayes was therefore elected president.
- In 1888, when there were five false keys against the incumbent Democrats, indicating the re-election of Democratic President Grover Cleveland. Cleveland won the popular vote, but Republican nominee Benjamin Harrison won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.[33][15][34]
Table
| Election | Incumbent party nominee | Challenger party nominee | Party mandate | No primary contest | Incumbent seeking re-election | No third party | Strong short-term economy | Strong long-term economy | Major policy change | No social unrest | No scandal | No foreign or military failure | Major foreign or military success | Charismatic incumbent | Uncharismatic challenger | False keys | Presumed winner | Actual winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1860 | Stephen A. Douglas
(Democratic) |
Abraham Lincoln
(Republican) |
True | False[a] | False | False[b] | True | True | False | False[c] | True | True | False | False | True[d] | 7 | Abraham Lincoln | |
| 1864 | Abraham Lincoln
(Union/Republican) |
George McClellan
(Democratic) |
True[e] | True | True | True | True | False | True[f] | False[g] | True | True | True[h] | False | True | 3 | Abraham Lincoln | |
| 1868[i] | Ulysses S. Grant
(Republican) |
Horatio Seymour
(Democratic) |
True | True | False | True | True | True | True[j] | False[k] | True[l] | True | True[m] | True | True | 2 | Ulysses S. Grant | |
| 1868[n] | Horatio Seymour
(Democratic) |
Ulysses S. Grant
(Republican) |
False | False[o] | False | False | 6 | |||||||||||
| 1872 | Ulysses S. Grant
(Republican) |
Horace Greeley
(Democrat/Liberal) |
False | True | True | True | True | True | False | False[p] | True | True | True[q] | True | True | 3 | Ulysses S. Grant | |
| 1876 | Rutherford B. Hayes
(Republican) |
Samuel J. Tilden
(Democratic) |
False | False[r] | False | True | False[s] | False | False | True | False[t] | True | False | False | True | 9 | Samuel J. Tilden[u] | Rutherford B. Hayes |
| 1880 | James A. Garfield
(Republican) |
Winfield Scott Hancock
(Democratic) |
True | False[v] | False | True | True | True | True[w] | True | True | True | False | False | True | 4 | James A. Garfield | |
| 1884 | James G. Blaine
(Republican) |
Grover Cleveland
(Democratic) |
False | False[x] | False | True | False[y] | False | False | True | True | True | False | True | True | 7 | Grover Cleveland | |
| 1888 | Grover Cleveland
(Democratic) |
Benjamin Harrison
(Republican) |
False | True | True | True | True | True | False | False[z] | True | True | False | False | True | 5 | Grover Cleveland[aa] | Benjamin Harrison |
| 1892 | Benjamin Harrison
(Republican) |
Grover Cleveland
(Democratic) |
False | False[ab] | True | False[ac] | True | True | True[ad] | False[ae] | True | True | False | False | True | 6 | Grover Cleveland | |
| 1896 | William Jennings Bryan
(Democratic) |
William McKinley
(Republican) |
False | False[af] | False | True | False[ag] | False | False | False[ah] | True | True | False | True | True | 8 | William McKinley | |
| 1900 | William McKinley
(Republican) |
William Jennings Bryan
(Democratic) |
False | True | True | True | True | True | True[ai] | True | True | True | True[aj] | False | False | 3 | William McKinley | |
| 1904 | Theodore Roosevelt
(Republican) |
Alton Brooks Parker
(Democratic) |
True | True | True | True | True | True | True[ak] | True | True | True | True[al] | True | True | 0 | Theodore Roosevelt | |
| 1908 | William Howard Taft
(Republican) |
William Jennings Bryan
(Democratic) |
True | True | False | True | True[am] | False | True[an] | True | True | True | True[ao] | False | True[ap] | 3 | William Howard Taft | |
| 1912 | William Howard Taft
(Republican) |
Woodrow Wilson
(Democratic) |
False | False[aq] | True | False[ar] | True | True | False | True | True | True | False | False | True | 6 | Woodrow Wilson[as] | |
| 1916 | Woodrow Wilson
(Democratic) |
Charles Evans Hughes
(Republican) |
False | True | True | True | True | False | True[at] | True | True | True | True[au] | False | True | 3 | Woodrow Wilson | |
| 1920 | James M. Cox
(Democratic) |
Warren G. Harding
(Republican) |
False | False[av] | False | True | False[aw] | False | True[ax] | False[ay] | True | False[az] | True[ba] | False | True | 8 | Warren G. Harding | |
| 1924 | Calvin Coolidge
(Republican) |
John W. Davis
(Democratic) |
False | True | True | False[bb] | True | True | True[bc] | True | False[bd] | True | True[be] | False | True | 4 | Calvin Coolidge | |
| 1928 | Herbert Hoover
(Republican) |
Al Smith
(Democratic) |
True | True | False | True | True | True | False | True | True | True | True[bf] | False | True | 3 | Herbert Hoover | |
| 1932 | Herbert Hoover
(Republican) |
Franklin D. Roosevelt
(Democratic) |
False | True | True | True | False[bg] | False | False | False[bh] | True | True | False | False | False | 8 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | |
| 1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt
(Democratic) |
Alf Landon
(Republican) |
True | True | True | True | True | True | True[bi] | True | True | True | False | True | True | 1 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | |
| 1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt
(Democratic) |
Wendell Willkie
(Republican) |
False | True | True | True | True | True | True[bj] | True | True | True | False | True | True | 2 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | |
| 1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt
(Democratic) |
Thomas Dewey
(Republican) |
False | True | True | True | True | True | True[bk] | True | True | False[bl] | True[bm] | True | True | 2 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | |
| 1948 | Harry S. Truman
(Democratic) |
Thomas Dewey
(Republican) |
False | True[bn] | True | False[bo] | True | False | True[bp] | True | True | False[bq] | True[br] | False | True | 5 | Harry S. Truman | |
| 1952 | Adlai Stevenson II
(Democratic) |
Dwight D. Eisenhower
(Republican) |
True | False[bs] | False | True | True | False | False | True | False[bt] | False[bu] | True[bv] | False | False | 8 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | |
| 1956 | Dwight D. Eisenhower
(Republican) |
Adlai Stevenson II
(Democratic) |
True | True | True | True | True | True | False | True | True | True | True[bw] | True | True | 1 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | |
| 1960 | Richard Nixon
(Republican) |
John F. Kennedy
(Democratic) |
False | True | False | True | False[bx] | False | False | True | True | False[by] | False | False | False | 9 | John F. Kennedy[bz] | |
| 1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson
(Democratic) |
Barry Goldwater
(Republican) |
False | True | True | True | True | True | True[ca] | True | True | False[cb] | True[cc] | False | True | 3 | Lyndon B. Johnson | |
| 1968 | Hubert Humphrey
(Democratic) |
Richard Nixon
(Republican) |
False | False[cd] | False | False[ce] | True | True | True[cf] | False[cg] | True | False[ch] | False | False | True | 8 | Richard Nixon | |
| 1972 | Richard Nixon
(Republican) |
George McGovern
(Democratic) |
False | True | True | True | True[ci] | False | False | True | True | True | True[cj] | False | True | 4 | Richard Nixon | |
| 1976 | Gerald Ford
(Republican) |
Jimmy Carter
(Democratic) |
False | False[ck] | True | True | True[cl] | False | False | True | False[cm] | False[cn] | False | False | True | 8 | Jimmy Carter | |
| 1980 | Jimmy Carter
(Democratic) |
Ronald Reagan
(Republican) |
False | False[co] | True | False[cp] | False[cq] | True | False | True | True | False[cr] | True[cs] | False | False | 8 | Ronald Reagan | |
Lichtman's prediction record (1984–present)
Using the 13 keys, Lichtman has correctly predicted the popular vote outcomes of eight of the nine presidential elections from 1984 to 2016, and correctly predicted the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.
In November 1999, he predicted that Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic frontrunner, would be elected president in 2000.[35] Gore won the national popular vote but Republican nominee George W. Bush won the Electoral College and was elected president. Lichtman argued that in 2000 he specifically predicted the winner of the popular vote, which Gore won.[36]
In his 1988 book The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, Lichtman had defined his model as predicting the outcome of the popular vote,[37] but he did not remind readers of this nuance in his journal articles wherein he made his prediction for 2000;[38][35] he simply predicted that Gore would win. Lichtman further argues that Gore was the rightful winner of the 2000 election, and lost because of improper ballot counting in Florida.[39]
In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome. Lichtman claims that in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College,[40] but this claim is not supported by his books and papers from 2016, which explicitly stated that the Keys predict the popular vote.[7][41]
Lichtman has inconsistently claimed that he began predicting the "winner" of elections after 2000, or that in 2016 he predicted the outcome of the Electoral College rather than the popular vote, explaining that discrepancies between the Electoral College and the popular vote had dramatically increased, with Democrats holding a significant advantage in winning the popular vote, but having no such advantage in the Electoral College.[6]
Table
| Election | Incumbent party nominee | Challenger party nominee | Party mandate | No primary contest | Incumbent seeking re-election | No third party | Strong short-term economy | Strong long-term economy | Major policy change | No social unrest | No scandal | No foreign or military failure | Major foreign or military success | Charismatic incumbent | Uncharismatic challenger | False keys | Predicted winner | Actual winner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984 | Ronald Reagan
(Republican) |
Walter Mondale
(Democratic) |
True | True | True | True | True | False | True[ct] | True | True | True | False | True | True | 2 | Ronald Reagan | ||
| 1988 | George H. W. Bush
(Republican) |
Michael Dukakis
(Democratic) |
True | True[cu] | False | True | True | True | False | True | True[cv] | True | True[cw] | False | True | 3 | George H. W. Bush | ||
| 1992 | George H. W. Bush
(Republican) |
Bill Clinton
(Democratic) |
False | True | True | False[cx] | False[cy] | False | False | True | True | True | True[cz] | False | True[da] | 6 | Bill Clinton | ||
| 1996 | Bill Clinton
(Democratic) |
Bob Dole
(Republican) |
False | True | True | False[db] | True | True | False | True | True | True | False | False | True | 5 | Bill Clinton | ||
| 2000 | Al Gore
(Democratic) |
George W. Bush
(Republican) |
True | True | False | True | True | True | False | True | False[dc] | True | False | False | True | 5 | Al Gore[dd] | George W. Bush | |
| 2004 | George W. Bush
(Republican) |
John Kerry
(Democratic) |
True | True | True | True | True | False | False | True | True | False[de] | True[df] | False | True | 4 | George W. Bush | ||
| 2008 | John McCain
(Republican) |
Barack Obama
(Democratic) |
False | True[dg] | False | True | False[dh] | False | False | True | True | False[di] | False | False | False | 9 | Barack Obama | ||
| 2012 | Barack Obama
(Democratic) |
Mitt Romney
(Republican) |
False | True | True | True | True | False | True[dj] | True | True | True | True[dk] | False[dl] | True | 3 | Barack Obama | ||
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton
(Democratic) |
Donald Trump
(Republican) |
False | False[dm] | False | True[dn] | True | True | False | True | True | True | False | False | True[do] | 6[dp] | Donald Trump[dq][7][47] | ||
| 2020 | Donald Trump
(Republican) |
Joe Biden
(Democratic) |
False | True | True | True | False[dr] | False | True[ds] | False[dt] | False[du] | True | False | False | True | 7 | Joe Biden | ||
| 2024 | Kamala Harris
(Democratic) |
Donald Trump
(Republican) |
False | True | False | True | True | True | True[dv] | True | True | Likely False[dw][48] | Likely True[dx][49] | False | True | Likely 4 | Kamala Harris[50] | TBD | |
Reception
Media coverage
Lichtman's model received significant media coverage in July 2010 after he released his forecast for the 2012 election, predicting that Barack Obama would win re-election.[51][52]
Lichtman again received considerable media attention for being one of the few forecasters to correctly predict Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election, despite his model only predicting the popular vote:[4][5] this has been the subject of criticism, both at Lichtman's and the media's expense.[53][54][55] Following the election, Trump sent Lichtman a framed copy of his prediction in The Washington Post signed with the message, "Professor - congrats, good call."[56]
Criticism
Lichtman's model has received significant criticism from political scientists, journalists, and commentators.[47] James E. Campbell, a professor of politcial science at the University at Buffalo, criticized the keys for their subjectivity, noting that they are often judged "in the eye of the beholder."[47]
Lars Emerson and Michael Lovito, two reporters and alumni of American University, where Lichtman teaches, criticized the predictive record of the keys, noting that Lichtman claimed credit for predicting the outcome in 2016, despite predicting a Donald Trump popular vote victory.[47][6] They suggested that the keys are no more accurate than the polls, noting that "[i]f you took whoever led in the polls from every election from 1984 to 2020 and predicted they would win, you would have predicted 9/10 elections correctly, which is the exact same record Lichtman can claim."[47] Julia Azari, a professor at Marquette University, believes the keys are useful as a starting point for assessment of the race, but that they do not constitute a "model."[47] Lichtman has vigorously defended against these assertions.[47]
Silver statistical analysis
Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight criticized the subjectivity of several keys, particularly candidate charisma, and said several more keys chosen for the system, such as long term economic growth, could be seen as data dredging and overfitting. Silver said that "[i]t’s less that he has discovered the right set of keys than that he’s a locksmith and can keep minting new keys until he happens to open all 38 doors", and also criticized only two of the keys being based on economic factors, despite the economy being a main concern of a majority of voters.
Silver stated that while the system has accurately predicted the winner, the margin of victory or defeat for parties that had the same number of false keys has varied widely. For example, the elections of 1880, 1924, 1972 and 2004 all had four false keys against the incumbent party, giving a predicted winning margin of 6.45 points, whereas these elections were won by respective margins of 0.09 points (1880), 25.22 points (1924), 23.15 points (1972), and 2.46 points (2004).
Conversely, the election of 1960 had an equal-record nine false keys against the incumbent Republicans, giving a predicted losing margin of 11 points - a landslide defeat - whereas Vice President Richard Nixon, the Republican nominee, lost by 0.17 points to Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy.[57]
Also cited by Silver was the 1932 election, which had eight false keys against the incumbent Republicans, giving a predicted losing margin of 7.51 points, whereas President Herbert Hoover lost by 17.76 points in a landslide defeat to Democratic nominee Franklin D. Roosevelt.
As of 2020, using the popular vote margin gives a mean error for the system of ±5.94 points, with the 95% confidence interval for the popular vote margin for the system being ±15.43 points and the R-squared value being 56.78%: the 95% confidence interval for the popular vote margin was exceeded in 1912, 1920, 1924 and 1972, with errors of 18.14 points, 18.66 points, 18.77 points and 16.7 points respectively.
For Lichtman's predictions between 1984 and 2020, the mean error for the popular vote margin is ±3.69 points, with the 95% confidence interval for the popular vote margin for the system being ±8.61 points, which has not been exceeded for any election Lichtman has predicted, and the R-squared value being 70.56%.[58]
Lichtman responded to Silver, saying the system is based on a theoretical model and avoids random data-mining. He stated that the system is not designed to predict the margin of victory, and flattens for landslide victories such as those in 1924, 1932 and 1972, stating that Silver's criticism was "akin to critiquing a pregnancy test, not for its failure to detect pregnancies, but for its failure to determine the day of conception." He defended only two keys being directly based on the economy, pointing out that economic factors can trigger other keys: for example, the Great Depression turned additional keys false for President Hoover since the Depression resulted in widespread social unrest, a heavy loss of House seats for Hoover's Republicans in the 1930 midterms, and the nomination of a charismatic challenger in Franklin D. Roosevelt.[59]
Lichtman stated that, purely as a by-product of the system, it was possible to use it to predict the two-party vote for the incumbent party. As of the 2020 election, using the two-party vote gives a mean error for the system of ±3.29 points, with the 95% confidence interval for the two-party vote being ±8.99 points and the R-squared value being 51.82%: the 95% confidence interval for the two-party vote was exceeded in 1912, 1920 and 1924, with errors of 13.88 points, 9.69 points and 12.02 points respectively.
For Lichtman's predictions between 1984 and 2020, the mean error for the two-party vote is ±1.95 points, with the 95% confidence interval for the two-party vote being ±4.56 points (which has not been exceeded for any election Lichtman has predicted) and the R-squared value being 68.72%.
Retrospective perception
In 2011, following Lichtman's call that President Barack Obama would win re-election in 2012, Megan McArdle of The Atlantic criticized Lichtman's subjectivity in applying the keys and their reliance on retrospective perception, applying them to Herbert Hoover in 1932, writing, "Unlike the economic models that rely on external metrics, perception is doing a lot of the work here. Do we count Obama's stimulus but not Hoover's?"[60]
Notes
- ^ Due to a split between Northern Democrats and Southern Democrats over slavery, two Democratic conventions and 59 ballots were required to nominate Douglas.
- ^ John C. Breckinridge of the Southern Democratic Party earned 18.1% of the popular vote, and John Bell of the Constitutional Union Party earned 12.6% of the popular vote, finishing second and third respectively in the Electoral College ahead of Douglas.
- ^ Bleeding Kansas and widespread violent conflicts between abolitionists and supporters of slavery.
- ^ Lichtman said that Lincoln was not viewed as charismatic by his contemporaries, and only became widely perceived as such posthumously.
- ^ The Republicans lost House seats in the 1862 midterms, but due to Southern secession, the increase in their proportion of House seats compared to after the 1858 midterms gave them an effective net gain of 22 seats, thus turning the key true.
- ^ The abolition of slavery and major wartime changes in national policy during the Civil War.
- ^ The Civil War.
- ^ Major Union battle victories in the Civil War, including the capture of Atlanta in September 1864.
- ^ Lichtman considers the Republicans to be the incumbent party in 1868, despite sitting president Andrew Johnson being a Democrat, by reason of Johnson being elected on a Republican fusion ticket and heading an administration appointed by Lincoln.
- ^ Reconstruction Acts.
- ^ Widespread violent resistance in the South to Reconstruction.
- ^ Lichtman considers the impeachment of Andrew Johnson to be the product of partisan politicking, thus keeping the no scandal key true.
- ^ Union victory in the Civil War.
- ^ This row shows the keys if the Democrats are considered to be the incumbent party in 1868, by reason of sitting president Andrew Johnson being a Democrat.
- ^ The Democratic convention required 22 ballots to nominate Seymour.
- ^ Continued violent resistance to Reconstruction in the South.
- ^ The Treaty of Washington and rapprochment with the United Kingdom.
- ^ The Republican convention required seven ballots to nominate Hayes.
- ^ The Long Depression following the Panic of 1873.
- ^ The Whiskey Ring scandal and various other scandals in the Grant administration.
- ^ Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, but an Electoral Commission declared Hayes the winner of the Electoral College, and Hayes was therefore elected president.
- ^ The Republican convention required 36 ballots to nominate Garfield.
- ^ The end of Reconstruction.
- ^ Due to a dispute between the Stalwarts led by sitting president Chester A. Arthur and the Half-Breeds led by Blaine, the Republican convention required four ballots to nominate Blaine.
- ^ The Depression of 1882–1885.
- ^ Widespread labor unrest, including the Great Southwest railroad strike of 1886 and the Haymarket affair.
- ^ Cleveland won the popular vote, but Harrison won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
- ^ James G. Blaine and William McKinley challenged Harrison for the nomination: Harrison was nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the Republican convention, but with only 58.9% of the delegate vote.
- ^ James Weaver of the Populist Party received 8.5% of the popular vote.
- ^ The Sherman Silver Purchase Act, the Dependent and Disability Pension Act and the Sherman Antitrust Act.
- ^ Widespread labor unrest, including the Homestead strike.
- ^ Due to a dispute between the Bourbon wing of the Democrats led by sitting president Grover Cleveland and the populist wing of the Democrats led by Bryan, the Democratic convention required five ballots to nominate Bryan.
- ^ The Panic of 1893 and a second panic in 1896.
- ^ Widespread social unrest arising from the Panic of 1893, including the Coxey's Army protests, the Pullman Strike, and various other incidents of labor unrest.
- ^ The Gold Standard Act, the McKinley Tariff, and other domestic measures alongside fundamental changes to international relations.
- ^ U.S. victory in the Spanish–American War, the Treaty of Paris, and the Open Door Policy with China.
- ^ The enactment of the Square Deal and significant changes in the relationship between the public and private sectors, including Roosevelt's directing the government to prosecute numerous antitrust suits.
- ^ U.S. security of a lease on the Panama Canal Zone after supporting the separation of Panama from Colombia, U.S. victory in the Philippine–American War, and U.S. security of a lease on Guantánamo Bay after withdrawal from Cuba.
- ^ The Panic of 1907 resulted in a drop of GDP growth large enough to turn the long-term economy key false, but the economy was in recovery during the election campaign, thus keeping the short-term economy key true.
- ^ The Federal Meat Inspection Act, the Pure Food and Drug Act, and the Tillman Act of 1907.
- ^ Roosevelt received the Nobel Peace Prize for mediating an end to the Russo-Japanese War and the First Moroccan Crisis.
- ^ Bryan was seen as charismatic and inspirational in 1896 and 1900, but his voter appeal had faded and he had become the subject of frequent press ridicule in 1908.
- ^ Former President Theodore Roosevelt challenged Taft for the nomination, leading to a split between conservatives and progressives: Taft was nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the Republican convention, but with only 52% of the delegate vote after progressives walked out.
- ^ Theodore Roosevelt ran as the nominee of the Bull Moose Party and received 27.4% of the popular vote, finishing second ahead of Taft, and Eugene Debs of the Socialist Party received 6.2% of the popular vote.
- ^ Taft finished third behind Wilson and Theodore Roosevelt.
- ^ The Revenue Act of 1913, the Federal Reserve Act, and the Clayton Antitrust Act of 1914.
- ^ The Sussex pledge kept the U.S. out of World War I.
- ^ The Democratic convention required 44 ballots to nominate Cox.
- ^ The Depression of 1920–1921.
- ^ Significant wartime legislation, the establishment of prohibition, and nationwide voting rights for women.
- ^ The Red Summer of 1919 and the First Red Scare, including widespread labor strikes and anarchist bombings.
- ^ The Senate failed to ratify the Treaty of Versailles, leaving the United States out of the League of Nations.
- ^ Allied victory in World War I.
- ^ Robert M. La Follette of the Progressive Party received 16.6% of the popular vote.
- ^ The reversal of Roosevelt/Wilson-style progressivism and a return to pro-business and conservative policies, including the Revenue Act of 1924, the Fordney–McCumber Tariff, and the Immigration Act of 1924.
- ^ The Teapot Dome scandal and various other scandals in the Harding administration.
- ^ Disarmament agreements reached during the Washington Naval Conference.
- ^ The Kellogg–Briand Pact.
- ^ The Great Depression.
- ^ Widespread social unrest arising from the Great Depression, including the Bonus Army protest, labor strikes, and hunger marches.
- ^ Enactment of the New Deal.
- ^ Continuation of the New Deal, including the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 and the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938.
- ^ Continuation of the New Deal and numerous policy changes to mobilize manpower and production in World War II.
- ^ The attack on Pearl Harbor and other early American losses in the Pacific War.
- ^ Major Allied battle victories in World War II, including Operation Overlord.
- ^ Despite vocal opposition from Southern Democrats over civil rights, Truman was nominated for election on the first ballot of the Democratic convention with 76.8% of the delegate vote, thus turning the key true.
- ^ Henry A. Wallace and Strom Thurmond both split from the Democrats, with Wallace running as the nominee of the Progressive Party and Thurmond running as the nominee of the Dixiecrats.
- ^ Numerous foreign policy changes under the Truman Doctrine, the National Security Act of 1947, the Marshall Plan, and the desegregation of the Armed Forces.
- ^ The Soviet Union expanded its influence by creating the Eastern Bloc.
- ^ Allied victory in World War II.
- ^ The Democratic convention required three ballots to nominate Stevenson.
- ^ The Democratic-controlled Senate investigated allegations of widespread corruption in the senior officials of the Truman administration.
- ^ The fall of China to Communism and the stalemate in the Korean War.
- ^ The establishment of NATO, the breaking of the Berlin Blockade, and success in containing the expansion of Soviet communism.
- ^ Eisenhower brokered an armistice in the Korean War.
- ^ The recession of 1960–1961.
- ^ The launch of Sputnik, the fall of Cuba to Communism, and the U-2 incident.
- ^ Due to discrepancies with how Alabama's unpledged electors are counted, the Congressional Quarterly and other sources report that Kennedy lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
- ^ Great Society programs, including the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964 and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
- ^ The botched Bay of Pigs invasion.
- ^ The resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
- ^ Humphrey was nominated on the first ballot of the Democratic convention with 67.5% of the delegate vote, but there were deep and vocal party divisions over the Vietnam War, including strong opposition by the anti-Vietnam War wing of the Democrats to the nomination of Humphrey, thus turning the key false.
- ^ George Wallace of the American Independent Party received 13.5% of the popular vote.
- ^ Johnson's Great Society programs, including the war on poverty, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the Civil Rights Act of 1968, and the Social Security Amendments of 1965.
- ^ Nationwide racial and anti-Vietnam War protests, the racial riots of summer 1967, and various other incidents of social unrest.
- ^ The stalemate in the Vietnam War.
- ^ The recession of 1969-1970 and the Nixon shock of 1971 resulted in a total drop of GDP growth large enough to turn the long-term economy key false, but the economy was in recovery during the election campaign, thus keeping the short-term economy key true.
- ^ Detente with the Soviet Union and a rapproachement with China following Nixon's visit.
- ^ Ronald Reagan challenged Ford for the nomination: Ford was nominated for election on the first ballot of the Republican convention, but with only 52.6% of the delegate vote.
- ^ The 1973-1975 recession resulted in a drop of GDP growth large enough to turn the long-term economy key false, but the economy was in recovery during the election campaign, thus keeping the short-term economy key true.
- ^ The Watergate scandal resulted in Nixon's resignation.
- ^ North Vietnamese victory in the Vietnam War and Khmer Rouge victory in the Cambodian Civil War.
- ^ Ted Kennedy challenged Carter for the nomination: Carter was nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the Democratic convention, but with only 64% of the delegate vote.
- ^ Independent John B. Anderson received 6.6% of the popular vote.
- ^ The 1980 recession.
- ^ The Iranian hostage crisis and the collapse of detente with the Soviet Union.
- ^ The Camp David Accords.
- ^ Reagan enacted major cuts in taxes and social spending.
- ^ While the Republican primaries were a serious contest in the early stages, Bush ultimately won 74.6% of the delegates, thus turning the key true, and he was nominated unanimously on the first ballot of the Republican convention.
- ^ The Iran–Contra affair was not linked directly to Reagan, and the scandal had fizzled out by the time of the election.
- ^ Restoration of detente with the Soviet Union and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
- ^ Ross Perot managed to poll more than 10% in many polls, and received 18.9% of the popular vote.
- ^ The early 1990s recession ended in March 1991, but a Gallup poll in September 1992 found that 79% of respondents believed the economy was still in recession, thus turning the key false.
- ^ Coalition victory in the Gulf War.
- ^ Lichtman said that Bill Clinton normally would have been viewed as charismatic, but was tainted by allegations of womanizing and extramarital affairs.[45]
- ^ Ross Perot received 8.4% of the popular vote.
- ^ Bill Clinton was impeached for lying about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.
- ^ Gore won the popular vote, but Bush was declared the winner of the Electoral College by the Supreme Court and was therefore elected president.
- ^ The September 11 attacks and heavy U.S. casualties in the war in Iraq.
- ^ The ouster of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the ouster and capture of Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
- ^ While the Republican primaries were a serious contest in the early stages, McCain ultimately won 72.5% of the delegates, thus turning the key true, and he was nominated with 99.3% of the delegate vote on the first ballot of the Republican convention.
- ^ The Great Recession.
- ^ The stalemate in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
- ^ The Affordable Care Act.
- ^ The killing of Osama bin Laden and the ouster and killing of Muammar Gaddafi in the Libyan Civil War.
- ^ While Obama exuded charisma in 2008, he failed to have the same success in connecting with the voters in 2012.
- ^ Clinton was challenged by Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries: Clinton was nominated on the first ballot of the Democratic convention, but with only 59.7% of the delegate vote. Lichtman marked key 2 as undetermined in his final prediction for 2016 because Sanders had endorsed Clinton and did not challenge her at the convention. [46] He marked the key as false in the 2024 edition of his book.
- ^ Lichtman marked key 4 as false in his final prediction for 2016,[46] saying that Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson was likely to receive over 5% of the popular vote, but he ultimately received only 3.3%. While third party candidates received a total of 5.7% of the popular vote, Lichtman states that multiple third party candidates receiving 5% or more of the vote cumulatively with no single candidate doing so will not turn the key false.[19] He marked the key as true in the 2024 edition of his book.
- ^ While Trump commands media attention and has an enthusiastic base, he only appeals to a narrow slice of the electorate, as opposed to having a broad appeal that extends to voters outside his party's base like that of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan.
- ^ While Lichtman predicted Hillary Clinton would be defeated in 2016 with six false keys against the Democrats and one key uncalled, his call on two of the keys differed in his final prediction versus his retrospective analysis in the 2024 edition of his book (the 2016 election was missing from the 2020 edition due to a misprint): in 2016, he marked key 2 (no primary contest) as undetermined and key 4 (no third party) as false, while in his 2024 book, key 2 is marked false and key 4 is marked true.
- ^ Trump lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president. Lichtman's model predicted the popular vote outcome incorrectly.
- ^ The COVID-19 recession.
- ^ Major tax reforms and numerous executive orders withdrawing the U.S. from major international treaties, reversing Obama-era environmental protections, instituting new immigration policies, and redirecting military funds to a border wall.
- ^ The 2020 nationwide protests sparked by George Floyd's murder, the 2017 protests in Charlottesville, and various other incidents of social unrest.
- ^ Trump was impeached for pressuring the government of Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, the emeregence of Trump's affair with Stormy Daniels, and various other scandals in the Trump administration.
- ^ The Build Back Better Plan, the reversal of Trump administration executive orders, and other substantive social legislation.
- ^ Lichtman said that Biden's response to the war in Gaza has thus far been a major foreign policy failure. He has said that this key could be turned true if Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, or confirmed as false if media coverage of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan persists.
- ^ Lichtman said that Biden's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a major foreign policy success. He has also said that this key could be turned true if Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in Gaza or Ukraine’s offensive into Kursk is successful.
References
- ^ Beyer, Elizabeth. "Meet Allan Lichtman, the professor who predicted the president (and the last 9)". USA TODAY. Retrieved 2024-08-20.
- ^ Smith, David (2024-04-26). "'A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose': can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-08-25.
- ^ Schechtman, Jeff (2024-05-17). "An Election Prophecy: How 13 Keys Unlock Presidential Election Outcomes". WhoWhatWhy. Retrieved 2024-08-26.
- ^ a b Schuessler, Jennifer (2016-11-09). "Yes, He Thought Trump Would Win. No, He Didn't Use Hard Data". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
- ^ a b Stevenson, Peter W. (2021-11-25). "Professor who predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly called a Trump win in September". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
- ^ a b c Emerson, Lars & Lovito, Michael (2024-06-19). "Allan Lichtman is Famous for Correctly Predicting the 2016 Election. The Problem? He Didn't". The Postrider. Retrieved 2024-06-27.
- ^ a b c Allan J. Lichtman (Oct 2016). "The Keys to the White House" (PDF). Social Education. 80 (5): 256–258.
As a national system, the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes.
- ^ Lichtman, Allan J. (October 2020). "The Keys to the White House: Final Prediction for the 2020 Election". Social Education. 84 (5): 264–266.
- ^ Lichtman, Allan J. (2020-07-15). "The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2020". Harvard Data Science Review. 2 (4). doi:10.1162/99608f92.baaa8f68. ISSN 2644-2353.
- ^ Housman, Patty (2020-10-28). "Does Allan Lichtman stand by his "13 Keys" Prediction of a Joe Biden Win?". American University. Retrieved 2024-08-25.
- ^ "The 13 Keys to the White House". American University. 2016-05-04. Retrieved 2024-08-25.
- ^ Moscato & De Vries (2019), p. 53
- ^ Kashina (2014), Vladimir Keilis-Borok: A Biography, p. 105
- ^ Kashina (2014), Vladimir Keilis-Borok: A Biography, p. 107
- ^ a b A. J. Lichtman; V. I. Keilis-Borok (Nov 1981). "Pattern recognition applied to presidential elections in the United States, 1860-1980: Role of integral social, economic, and political traits". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 78 (11): 7230–7234. Bibcode:1981PNAS...78.7230L. doi:10.1073/pnas.78.11.7230. PMC 349231. PMID 16593125.
- ^ BREAKING DOWN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY | Lichtman Live #32, retrieved 2024-03-24
- ^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 14
- ^ a b c Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2
- ^ a b c d e f Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2
- ^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 26
- ^ Lichtman, Allan (1 Mar 2024). SCOTUS WILL DECIDE TRUMP'S IMMUNITY! | Lichtman Live #37 (Video). Retrieved 2024-08-27 – via YouTube.
- ^ "Harding Nominated for President on the Tenth Ballot at Chicago; Coolidge Chosen for Vice President". archive.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2024-03-16.
- ^ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections (compare national data by year)
- ^ a b Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 31
- ^ Stevenson, Peter W. (2021-11-25). "Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2023-09-23.
In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.
- ^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 9
- ^ a b Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 38
- ^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 41
- ^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 12: "Trump is a consummate showman who commands media attention but appeals only to a narrow slice of the electorate rather than achieving broad appeal like Ronald Reagan."
- ^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 46
- ^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 10: "Although many Americans admired his service during the Vietnam War, including his imprisonment by the North Vietnamese for five and a half years, he had not led the nation through war like Ulysses S. Grant or Dwight D. Eisenhower."
- ^ It is possible that the keys corresponded with the elected president but not the popular vote winner in 1960, when there were nine false keys against the incumbent Republicans, indicating the defeat of Republican nominee Vice President Richard Nixon: due to discrepancies with how Alabama's unpledged electors are counted, the Congressional Quarterly and other sources report that Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
- ^ a b Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President
- ^ Allan Lichtman (2024-07-10). Professor SCHOOLS Cenk Uygur on Elections!. Retrieved 2024-07-11 – via YouTube.
- ^ a b Allan J. Lichtman (2000). "ELECTION 2000: The Keys Point to Gore". Social Education. 64 (6): 376–377.
"Thus, on balance, barring a most improbable turn of events, the American people will ratify the record of the current Democratic administration this year and elect Al Gore president of the United States." - ^ Joseph Jaffe, Allan Lichtman (18 Nov 2020). The Keys to the White House - Distinguished Professor, Allan Lichtman (YouTube streaming video). Event occurs at 32m03s.
- ^ Lichtman (1990), The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, p. 6: "When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins the popular vote"
- ^ Allan J. Lichtman (1999). "The Keys to Election 2000". Social Education. 63 (7): 422.
- ^ Allan J. Lichtman (2001). "Supplemental Report on the Racial Impact of the Rejection of Ballots Cast in Florida’s 2000 Presidential Election and in Response to the Statement of the Dissenting Commissioners and Report by Dr. John Lott Submitted to the United States Senate Committee on Rules in July 2001" in Voting Irregularities in Florida during the 2000 Presidential Election (US Commission of Civil Rights, 2001)
- ^ Lichtman (2024). Predicting the Next President (2024 edition). Chapter 12:
"In 2016, I made the first modification of the keys system since its inception in 1981. I did not change the keys themselves or the decision rule that any six or more negative keys predict the White House party’s defeat. Instead, in my final forecast for 2016, I predicted the winner of the presidency, e.g., the Electoral College, rather than the popular vote winner. In an interview with the Washington Post on September 23, 2016, I predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidency in November, revising my earlier forecast of a likely Democratic win." - ^ Allan J. Lichtman (2016). Predicting the Next President: the Keys to the White House. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield. p. 2. ISBN 978-1-4422-6920-0. "When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party prevails."
- ^ He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? (streaming video). New York Times. 5 Aug 2020. Archived from the original on 2021-12-21.
- ^ Lichtman (2012)
- ^ Basu, Rebecca (26 September 2016). "Historian's Prediction: Donald J. Trump to Win 2016 Election". American University. Archived from the original on 2017-06-19.
- ^ STORMY DANIELS TESTIFIES! | Lichtman Live #47. Retrieved 2024-07-26 – via www.youtube.com.
- ^ a b Lichtman, Allan J. (2016-09-25). "Assuming History's a Good Guide, Trump's Going to Win". History News Network. Retrieved 2024-08-20.
- ^ a b c d e f g McFall, Marni Rose (2024-08-13). "How reliable is the 'Nostradamus' of US polling?". Newsweek. Retrieved 2024-08-21.
- ^ "13 Keys to the White House (2024 Update) | Lichtman Live #51". 6 June 2024. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
- ^ "Allan Lichtman's 2024 Presidential Prediction | Lichtman Live #72". 5 September 2024. Retrieved 6 September 2024.
- ^ Lichtman, Allan (2024-09-05). "Harris or Trump? The Prophet of Presidential Elections Is Ready to Call the Race". The New York Times. Retrieved 2024-09-05.
- ^ Csellar, Maralee (2010-07-12). "Obama Wins Re-Election in 2012 | American University Washington DC". American University. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
- ^ Fox, Lauren & Paul, Bedard. "Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012". US News.
- ^ "Allan Lichtman is Famous for Correctly Predicting the 2016 Election. The Problem? He Didn't". The Postrider. 2024-06-19. Retrieved 2024-06-27.
- ^ Silver, Nate (August 5, 2020). "He Incorrectly Predicted That Trump Would Win The Popular Vote In 2016. But, Hey, Who Cares About Details Like That?". Twitter.
- ^ It is possible that Lichtman's model also corresponded with the elected president but not the popular vote winner in 1960, an election where the keys were applied retrospectively: due to discrepancies with how Alabama's unpledged electors are counted, the Congressional Quarterly and other sources report that Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
- ^ Combs, Cody (2023-08-16). "Will Joe Biden be re-elected in the 2024 presidential election?". The National. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
- ^ Due to discrepancies with how Alabama's unpledged electors are counted, Congressional Quarterly and other sources report that Nixon won the popular vote by 0.09 points, but Kennedy won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
- ^ Silver, Nate (2011-08-31). "Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
- ^ Silver, Nate (2011-09-12). "'Keys to the White House' Historian Responds". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
- ^ McArdle, Megan (2011-08-30). "How Do Obama's Re-Election Chances Stack Up to Hoover's?". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2024-01-27.
Bibliography
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