The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[1]
| Source | Seats in parliament[i] | Likely government formation(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | ||
| 1 News–Verian[2] 5–9 Oct 2024 poll |
47 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[3] 3–7 Oct 2024 poll |
44 | 38 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[4] 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll |
47 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Talbot Mills[5] 1–10 Sep 2024 poll |
46 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 2023 election result[6] 14 Oct 2023 |
48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
- * indicates an overhang seat
- ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
References
- ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ Desmarais, Felix (14 October 2024). "Poll: Coalition remain in front, but Labour gain seats". 1 News.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
- ^ "National support up in September as National-led Government increases lead to 14% points after RBNZ cut interest ratess". Roy Morgan. 8 October 2024.
- ^ Ensor, Jamie (19 September 2024). "New poll results show closer fight between Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxon for preferred Prime Minister". NZ Herald.
- ^ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.