Talk:Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework

COVID-19 Mid‑importance

	COVID-19 portal This article is within the scope of WikiProject COVID-19, a project to coordinate efforts to improve all COVID-19-related articles. If you would like to help, you are invited to join and to participate in project discussions.COVID-19Wikipedia:WikiProject COVID-19Template:WikiProject COVID-19COVID-19 articles
Mid	This article has been rated as Mid-importance on the project's importance scale.

Disaster management Mid‑importance

	This article is within the scope of WikiProject Disaster management, a collaborative effort to improve the coverage of Disaster management on Wikipedia. If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join the discussion and see a list of open tasks.Disaster managementWikipedia:WikiProject Disaster managementTemplate:WikiProject Disaster managementDisaster management articles
Mid	This article has been rated as Mid-importance on the project's importance scale.

Medicine Low‑importance

	Medicine portal This article is within the scope of WikiProject Medicine, which recommends that medicine-related articles follow the Manual of Style for medicine-related articles and that biomedical information in any article use high-quality medical sources. Please visit the project page for details or ask questions at Wikipedia talk:WikiProject Medicine.MedicineWikipedia:WikiProject MedicineTemplate:WikiProject Medicinemedicine articles
Low	This article has been rated as Low-importance on the project's importance scale.

Viruses Low‑importance

	Viruses portal This article is within the scope of WikiProject Viruses, a collaborative effort to improve the coverage of viruses on Wikipedia. If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join the discussion and see a list of open tasks.VirusesWikipedia:WikiProject VirusesTemplate:WikiProject Virusesvirus articles
Low	This article has been rated as Low-importance on the project's importance scale.

Economics Mid‑importance

	Business and economics portal This article is within the scope of WikiProject Economics, a collaborative effort to improve the coverage of Economics on Wikipedia. If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join the discussion and see a list of open tasks.EconomicsWikipedia:WikiProject EconomicsTemplate:WikiProject EconomicsEconomics articles
Mid	This article has been rated as Mid-importance on the project's importance scale.

The contentious topics procedure applies to this page. This page is related to COVID-19, broadly construed, which has been designated as a contentious topic.

Editors who repeatedly or seriously fail to adhere to the purpose of Wikipedia, any expected standards of behaviour, or any normal editorial process may be blocked or restricted by an administrator. Editors are advised to familiarise themselves with the contentious topics procedures before editing this page.

Section sizes

Section size for Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework (9 sections)
Section name	Byte count	Section total
(Top)	5,144	5,144
Measures used in the framework	2,697	3,838
Measures of transmissibility	569	569
Measures of clinical severity	572	572
Severity of past influenza pandemics	1,277	3,658
Influenza severity	1,106	1,106
COVID-19 pandemic severity	1,275	1,275
See also	182	182
References	365	365
Total	13,187	13,187

Severity edit

We are using Chinese data from Feb 2020? Surely there is a lot more data available since then, and I am fairly sure it isn't as severe as was initially estimated.

You're welcome to find it! As far as I can tell the CDC never published their official PSAF ratings. The closest I found so far are the "Current Best Estimate" values in the Pandemic Planning Scenarios. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#box1 Their R0 of 2.5 is solidly a 5 for transmissibility. For severity they have an infection fatality ratio, which should have a larger denominator and therefore be smaller than the case fatality ratio that the architects of the PSAF used. Their IFR is segmented by age group, but it wouldn't be that hard to turn it back into a weighted average using some census data. Eyeballing the weighted average and the IFR vs. CFR difference, my guess is it'd be a 4ish for clinical severity. That's at the low end of the February 2020 estimate, but that's still the worst pandemic since 1918 on the scale.

I'd be curious for someone to FOIA CDC to see if they actually did a PSAF rating for their own planning. --Error9312 (talk) 02:05, 8 June 2021 (UTC)Reply

PSAF Ratings for Variants edit

Latest comment: 2 years ago1 comment1 person in discussion

Another author had copied some data about variants over from the Variants of SARS-CoV-2 page. I removed it and replaced it with a pointer to the other page. My main concern was that after just 6 weeks the table on this page was already out of date because the data in the table is being maintained on the other page, not here. It also bothered me the slightest bit that the PSAF scaled transmissiblity measures for the variants were the Wikipedia author's values, not the sources' values. Yes, I realize it was a no-brainer since they were only filled in when the transmissibilty was higher than the Wuhan strain, which had already been rated at the highest value.

Feel free to undo my second edit from today if you strongly disagree and think the data should also appear on this page. Keep my first edit, though, because before I deleted the table I fixed some of the citations inside it. My second edit today also contains a new CDC source in the "COVID-19 pandemic" section that's worth salvaging if you undo it. --Error9312 (talk) 02:51, 8 June 2021 (UTC)Reply

COVID-19 pandemic severity edit

Latest comment: 2 years ago1 comment1 person in discussion

The data in this section is very stale and needs updating 98.118.62.140 (talk) 18:28, 4 October 2021 (UTC)Reply

Add topic