Talk:Demographics of Syria/Archive 1

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Archive 1

Non-Arab Middle East Christians

Latest comment: 18 years ago1 comment1 person in discussion

I think people should have a look at the doings of some anti-Arab Christian activists at the Assyrian-related articles. They even designed a totally inaccurate and propagandist Syriacs box, mentioning Maronites and Melkites as "Syriacs", thus non-Arabs, which I proposed for deletion here. Pylambert 23:07, 15 February 2006 (UTC)

Map request

Latest comment: 17 years ago2 comments2 people in discussion

A population density map would be helpful. -- Beland 23:52, 18 February 2007 (UTC)

Done. Khoi khoi 09:15, 19 February 2007 (UTC)

Syrian Turks

Latest comment: 12 years ago1 comment1 person in discussion

The Turks in Syria Latakia, Aleppo, hummus, Idlib and live in areas of the Golan.Turkey, Adana, Kayseri, Hatay, Gaziantep, Sanliurfa Kilis and kinship relations are available from interviews made holidays and special occasions.

There are 1.5 million with a population of 2 million million people, Syrian Turkish

Orsam Suriye Türkleri Raporu-Orsam Syrian Turks Report — Preceding unsigned comment added by 78.160.56.52 (talk) 19:15, 18 February 2012 (UTC)

Arabs in Syria

Latest comment: 11 years ago5 comments5 people in discussion

What's wrong with saying most Syrians are Arabs? The Library of Congress says:

Accurate statistical breakdowns by language and ethnic group were unavailable in 1986, and estimates by authorities varied. Arabs, or native speakers of Arabic, were thought to constitute nearly 90 percent of the population, but Kurdish, Armenian, Turkic, and Syriac were also spoken. Arabs are divided into a number of religious communities. Arabic-speaking Sunni Muslims, who constitute the largest single group, account for slightly more than half the population.

—Khoikhoi 01:44, 8 June 2006 (UTC)

I think excatly the same. In truth, the same can be said about most of the Northern Part of the mid-east, including Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan even. Virtually all arabs there were previously Aramaic-speaking and were Arabized, and are being referred to as 'Arabs' - infact most Arabs do not originate from the Arabian Peninsula Benduin Tribes. Either all articles there get changed, or this one does. Also there are no references or evidence for the statement they aren't arabs, but you seem to have evidence they are. I'll use common sense and change it to the by far most popular opinion that Syrians are 'Arabs'. Please Admins place source link to the source given above as I don't know how to do that. Thanks. Nabuchadnessar (talk) 17:00, 4 March 2008 (UTC)

Other Wikipedia articles can't be used as sources. Funkynusayri (talk) 17:30, 4 March 2008 (UTC)

No Arabs in Syria are ethnically Arab, Arameans were extinct slowly because of their low growth rate being non polygamist.

Humanbyrace (talk) 13:55, 1 June 2010 (UTC)

Ethnic groups are not 90% Arab, as noted earlier in the article. Syrians are Semitic peoples, but not Arabs. There is probably only a very small percentage of the population of Arab ethnic origin. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 203.184.41.226 (talk) 03:40, 21 July 2012 (UTC)

Vandalism, incorrect information and citing of sources.

Latest comment: 11 years ago1 comment1 person in discussion

I think this page should be locked or watched because similar pages related to the country are being constantly vandalized due to the current circumstances. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Ra.ashtar (talk • contribs) 03:38, 25 April 2013 (UTC)

Ethnic, religious, linguistic statistics inaccuracy

Latest comment: 9 years ago2 comments1 person in discussion

About all the ethnic, religious, linguistic statistics (as well as some other information on these matters, e.g. over the "French settlers") mentioned in this article are inaccurate, based on unreliable "sources". This is not an isolated problem, other articles suffer from the same disease (e.g. the "race" statistics in Demographics of Guadeloupe). Several official censuses mentioned the religion, even with denominational precisions (I added the 1943 and 1953 data for Al-Jazira province when I wrote the article 2 years ago, but they exist for the whole of Syria too). No census whatsoever mentioned language and ethnicity, so all statistics in these matters are utterly fantasist, often based on nationalist allegations and gross exagerations from Arabs, Assyrians, Kurds, Turks etc. There should be more caution in the writing and monitoring of these demographics articles (and other mentioning ethnic, linguistic, religious and "race" statistics) because too many students, journalists etc. use them as a reliable source, though wikipedia is obviously not per se a reliable source, only when it is based on reliable sources, as is not the case here. --Minorities observer (talk) 10:07, 5 July 2014 (UTC)

I found the "author" of the false information over "French settlers". It was User:119.92.218.5 who inserted it on 23 April 2009. I hope he didn't insert similar fake informations in other articles to which he "contributed". --Minorities observer (talk) 13:15, 5 July 2014 (UTC)

External links modified

Latest comment: 8 years ago1 comment1 person in discussion

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population chart

Latest comment: 8 years ago2 comments2 people in discussion

The historical population chart should probably be updated. 1995 is very outdated, and it would be good to be able to quantify the decrease in population due to the war. -KaJunl (talk) 20:57, 7 September 2015 (UTC)

I don't think anybody known how many people are left in Syria.--Gerrit ^CUTEDH 08:18, 10 September 2015 (UTC)

Details deleted

Latest comment: 8 years ago7 comments2 people in discussion

A week ago I supplemented the Population segment by listing current birth, death, and migration figures, from CIA factbook, indexmundi, and the U.N.. Migration is the most uncertain data.

Why was this deleted, for a single sentence that conflates these figures and is vague (the "massive decline"'s time-frame is not specified)? My guess is someone feels demography's "big picture" view suggests the Syrian crisis isn't as bad as it really is. That's an opinion, but demography is social science's most factual domain. It doesn't need to be hidden.

The section is titled "CIA World Factbook demographic statistics" with the caveat "unless otherwise indicated." The Population section's single sentence doesn't indicate otherwise, but it draws on indexmundi, which estimated a drop from 2013 to 2014 of 9.73% (too precise, given uncertainty.) Indexmundi's Syrian birth rate est. was 2.27%; its death rate 0.65%. Without migration, that's an increase rate of 1.62%. The 9 % drop is because indexmundi estimates outmigration at over 11%. If the Wiki author draws on indexmundi's 9%, why censor the components of its aggregate?

Demography is too valuable to let it fall victim to this kind of propaganda purpose. The CIA factbook estimates that Syrian population fell -0.16% in 2015 - a lot less than 9%. Their birth and death figures are similar to indexmundi, but they differ in outmigration estimates.

As recently as 2012 Syria was a destination for refugees, 1.8 million from Iraq, 1/2 million Palestinians. The Sept. 24, 2015 Economist ^[1]claimed unpublished U.N. figures show 5 million Syrians have migrated from the country since then, and up to 1/4 million Syrians have died over the period, reducing Syria's population by the same amounts.

Demographics separates migrations and death rates. 1/4 million, over 2+ years, may double the pre-war death rate. That's terrible, but the pre-war death rate was less than a 1/4 of the pre-war birth rate. In an of itself, war death has not turned Syria's population from growth to decline.

Migration has. Migrants vary. Are Syrian refugees in Jordan no longer giving birth to Syrian babies? Any answer is arbitrary. Most Syrian refugees are in Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon, where they have no rights except as temporary visitors. These Syrian families will likely return to Syria following the conflict (and, despite horrors, all conflicts end, or at least fizzle.) It can't be predicted, because the longer war drags on, the less likely they will be to return. But a headline that "Syria has lost 20% of its population" may be misleading. Most Syrians are still alive, many are displaced.

Like other Arab countries, the past 15 years witnessed a baby boom in Syria. Death rates declined and life expectancy increased. Iraq and Syria are dreadful places, to be sure, but their war death impacts are not equivalent to the 20th century World Wars, and they haven't lost the capacity to keep growing. The refugees that flow around the Levant and Iraq are as important as war in reshaping nations and borders. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.80.117.214 (talk) 09:16, 8 December 2015 (UTC)

The supposed natural growth number isnt supported by the source. The CIA doesnt say that Syrians increased. Total misrepresentation of the source. That is why your addition was deleted. You claimed that Syria has a natural annual increase rate of 9% !! It doesnt get calculated like this and your sources didnt calculate them like this.

You wrote : the CIA Factbook's 2015 estimate, total Syrian population still increased in the prior year, by 5.88% (CIA, 2015)

But this is no where to be found in the CIA factbook.--Attar-Aram syria (talk) 15:32, 8 December 2015 (UTC)

No, I did not say Syria has a natural annual increase of 9%. That would be astronomical. I was very clear, Syria's current birth rate exceeds its current death rate (prior to conflict) by roughly four times. A war-caused death rate that may be 1/4 million over 2.5 years roughly doubles the current death rate, which isn't enough to cause Syria's population to decrease. There is a probable decrease, because of out-migration. But most out-migration has been to neighboring countries where Syrians are given only temporary status. Thus Syria's population is in flux, and may well be maintained through the conflict.

I'm not clear why this needs to be controversial. Demographics express a certain reality. They don't say whether people are happy, miserable, or suffering. But they do show a society's numerical resiliency, which is worth noting.

The CIA factbook states that Syria's population was -0.16% in 2015, summing for "natural" birth, death, war death and migration. That should be mentioned in the Wiki, since the section is supposed to report CIA factbook stats. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.80.117.214 (talk) 02:27, 9 December 2015 (UTC)

Those are your exact words which were deleted :

"Syria's birth rates and death rates per 1,000 are estimated at 22.17 (birth) and 4.0 (death), for a natural annual increase rate of 9% (CIA, 2015)"

"Syria's population varies; with the CIA Factbook's 2015 estimate, total Syrian population still increased in the prior year, by 5.88% (CIA, 2015)".--Attar-Aram syria (talk) 02:55, 9 December 2015 (UTC)

I did not write that. Please make sure you're referring to something that I can also see. Surely the point is to get the right facts on Wikipedia. The facts I've noted above are those that should be in the article.

Four factors are at work. Current birth rate, which may vary under wartime, but can be estimated. Some wars cause fertility decrease; in both World Wars European birth rates declined. ^[2] Some cause increase: in Boznia-Herzegovina and Serbia, live births increased during the early 1990's war. ^[3] Behind these differences is whether men were widely conscripted. If so, it negatively impacts birth rates. If conflict dislocates men from work, it may increase. Refugees may have high fertility rates. ^[4]According to the Jordanian government, Syrian refugee women have a slightly higher birth rate, though it isn't specified. ^[5] Thus I understand why CIA factbook and indexmundi estimate Syrian birth rates to be somewhat stable.

Current death rate caused by age, illness, accident, etc. vary in war, and may be estimated (increased disease load, lack of emergency care previously available.) According to household surveys in Iraq, nearly twice as many civilians died from disrupted services, like water and sanitation, as from direct violence, after 2003.^[6] We can't assume this is the case in Syria (the Iraq studies are very uncertain.) The NY Times noted a Syrian American Medical Society report that "565 civilians died from starvation, dehydration or lack of basic medical care," and goes on to say this doesn't include the estimated 200,000 to 600,000 people under siege "at risk of starving" or "dying from other preventable causes." ^[7] Refugees are at increased risk of death. Jordan's government reports Syrian refugees suffer much higher rates of disease than Jordanian nationals, though the data is sparse.

Since most people view Syria's conflict through a media lens, not to mention a political one, its important not to "assume" data "must be wrong" because it doesn't align with gut feelings. The Economist claimed that Syrian life span fell by 20 years, without giving any reference. This may be good enough for them; it isn't for Wikipedia. ^[8]

Wikipedia doesn't use original research, so Syrian deaths due to causes other than violence may be underestimated. The way to report this is to state the referenced fact, then add (as the NY Times does above) why this is probably an underestimate. One cannot simply deny the referenced fact. From just birth and death rates, not including war violence and migration, the CIA factbook estimates Syrian population increased 1.8% in 2015. This would include Syrians born as refugees.

I've already noted the direct war death rates, and migration estimates. Migration is the biggest factor, and most uncertain, as well as difficult to define. Are Syrians displaced to Iraq migrants? The reason media reports of Syria's depopulation are misleading is because they misrepresent Syrian migration. Most of it isn't like in Europe, where Syrians may want to relocate permanently. Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq do not. They're displaced. Syria has not permanently lost five million people.

I've tried to explain as much as possible. I think this Wikipedia article should be amended to include the CIA factbook estimates, their components, and a brief explanation.

Please click on this link, it will show you that you wrote the words I provided here

I understand your argument, but it doesnt correspond the words inserted to the article that were deleted. You can just rewrote the paragraph without saying that Syrians had a natural increase of 9% and that the total population increased by 5,88%.--Attar-Aram syria (talk) 18:01, 9 December 2015 (UTC)

What is shown on the link you provide is bizarre. I won't speculate. The paragraph I will insert shall be:

CIA factbook estimates Syrian population fell -0.16% in 2015. This is based on four factors, birth & non-war death rates, war deaths, and migration. Birth rates: the factbook estimates Syria's birth rate at 2.217%. The World Bank's data shows Syrian fertility peaked in 1970 at 7.57%, 5.31% in 1990, and 3.08% in 2010. ^[9]The CIA 2015 estimate may be lower than previously expected, but is not explained. Indexmundi estimates Syria's birth rate at 2.28% in 2014. As with CIA, it does not explain if this is based on Syrian nationals who give birth, or births in Syria. Around 1/5 of Syrian women live in neighboring countries as temporary refugees. Because extended families remain in Syria, many expect to return. ^[10]

The CIA factbook estimates Syria's 2015 death rate as 0.4%. This, combined with the factbook's birth and migration rates, generates the -0.16% population change. It does not state if this includes conflict-related death rates. According to a U.N. official in 2015, 250,000 Syrians have died since 2011. ^[11] 62,500 annual war deaths is approximately a 0.32% death rate. Indexmundi's 2014 estimate of Syria's death rate was 0.65%. The real rate may be higher, according to Reuters. ^[12]

Migration from Syria is estimated as -1.98% in 2015 by CIA factbook, and -11.35% by indexmundi, almost an order of magnitude difference. The E.U. reported that 4.29 million Syrian refugees are in neighbouring countries to Syria, and 681,713 reached Europe as of November 2015, a total just under 5 million. This is a 6.25% annual out-migration from Syria, pr cumulative since 2011 a 25% total. ^[13]

Indexmundi estimates Syria's population declined by 9.73% in 2014, due to the 11.35% out-migration rate. The E.U. estimate with indexmundi's birth and death rates generates a 2014 population decline of -4.88%. The CIA estimate that Syria lost 0.16% of its population in 2015 may be accommodated with the indexmundi and E.U. estimates, if the over 4 million Syrian refugees in neighbouring countries expect to return to Syria. Including them as still part of Syria demography, indexmundi's estimate is within 1% of CIA's. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.80.117.214 (talk) 05:18, 10 December 2015 (UTC)

This is much more convincing than the previous one. As you can see from the link, the former section was bizarre and thats why it was deleted not because someone was trying to hide anything.--Attar-Aram syria (talk) 05:25, 10 December 2015 (UTC)

References

External links modified

Latest comment: 8 years ago1 comment1 person in discussion

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Ethnic group percentages

Latest comment: 8 years ago3 comments3 people in discussion

Different sections of wikipedia give different figures. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrians#Ethnic_groups gives the figures as 85% Arabs, 10% Kurds, 3% Assyrians, 2% other (mostly Armenians) This page, however, gives the figures as 90% Arabs, 5% Kurds, 5% other (mostly Armenians and Assyrians). Neither page cites sources, so if anyone has any reliable figures I think all the figures should be adjusted to be as consistent and accurate as possible. If this isn't feesible, then maybe mention of differing figures from different sources should be added in the appropriate places. Static Sleepstorm 19:35, 24 April 2007 (UTC)

Done. Khoi khoi 02:00, 25 April 2007 (UTC)

Syrian Ba'ath regime ,Hafez al-Assad and Bashar al-Assad have conducted intensive period of oppression and persecution , Sunni Arabs , Kurds, Turkmen assimilation to Arabization ,These are the causes of the civil war that happened today . — Preceding unsigned comment added by 95.5.96.21 (talk) 12:22, 30 January 2016 (UTC)