Talk:2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Unsigned comment by IP User

This page need to be reverted its too early. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2600:1013:B01F:F57D:4853:A772:B010:8006 (talk) 18:59, 12 December 2023 (UTC)

Traditionally, we publish the season's article after the first major prediction. Therefore, no need for re-draftification. ✶Mitch199811✶ 19:45, 12 December 2023 (UTC)

As long as there are official predictions by meteorology services, then it isn't "too early" to start this page. It's easier to start it now, especially if an early storm pops up such as what happened last year then this page is already set up and we can use it. zoey (trooncel) 20:40, 7 January 2024 (UTC)

Forecast from Weather Bell

This webpage cites people named Weather Bell of whom have apparently issued a hyperactive forecast. Should we add their prediction? ✶Quxyz✶ 18:26, 7 March 2024 (UTC)

Considering the informal language, the unknown ".bm" domain, and the fact that they cite several forecasters without naming them, I'd say this isn't a high quality/reputable source. JayTee⛈️ 13:11, 8 March 2024 (UTC)

• weatherbell.com homepage

There are a couple dozen agencies / organizations that issue hurricane forecasts, and we cannot include them all. We have included near the same 7-10 groups the past few years. If these are the most highly regarded, why include others? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Drdpw (talk • contribs)

I agree with Drpdw on this, we don't necessarily need to add other organizations to our list when we already have several more reputable sources on here. JayTee⛈️ 15:58, 10 March 2024 (UTC)

If anything, I think paring down the number of predictions would be best. Last year we had 22 predictions, several from the same agencies. I think making mention of some predictions is worthwhile, but that number seems unseemly, especially given how massive it makes the infobox for them. Perhaps we should pick a handful of agencies and summarize the average predictions, as well as the upper and lower predictions. DarkSide830 (talk) 00:05, 12 March 2024 (UTC)

Do we want to go through last year's predictions and cut down on them? We also might want to codify these guidelines (and make a centralized page that links to all the guidelines of the project). ✶Quxyz✶ 01:09, 12 March 2024 (UTC)

I was looking at French Wikipedia to see what they did about this problem. They have a list of half a dozen or so sources, even before they issue predictions. When a source issues multiple, they simply make a new line in the same table row. (Articles: 2024 Atl season French, 2023 Atl season French ✶Quxyz✶ 11:26, 28 March 2024 (UTC)

Which seasonal forecasts to include and not include is a problem we face in all basins and one that we struggle with year in, year out. The predictions issued fall into 5 main categories which can generally be summarised as:

• Group 1 - RSMC/TCWC Predictions (CPC/CPHC/BoM/Meteo France/FMS etc)
• Group 2 - NMHSS Predictions (UKMO/SMN/Meteo France/NWS Guam etc)
• Group 3 - University Predictions (CSU, NCSU etc)
• Group 4 - Public/Private Weather/TV Company Predictions (Accuweather/TWC/WeatherBell etc)
• Group 5 - Amateur predictions (User:Jason Rees, User:Hurricanehink, User:Drdpw Force Thirteen etc)

I think we can all agree that under no circumstances any predictions from Group 5 should be added in, as they maybe unreliable, not written down or based on science. Group 4 is where it starts becoming trickier as they are generally reliable. However, we have to remember that there are approximately 30 countries that border the North Atlantic Ocean impacted by TC's off which lets say there are three Public/Private Weather/TV Companies that issue predictions per country, which brings it up to 90 predictions before we even start. The same generally goes for groups 2 and 3 except of course I think I would be murdered, if I suggested that Colorado State University was unreliable since the press has used their forecasts for years. I think it goes without saying that any forecasts by Group 1 should be implemented, however, Meteo France falls into both Group 1 and 2 for obvious reasons.Jason Rees (talk) 02:07, 31 March 2024 (UTC)

I think that groups 1 and 2 should be cleared automatically. From group 3, we would need deliberation as I do not want to say "CSU and NCSU are good, everyone else can go suck it" as we could miss more obscure or foreign colleges (unless we want to minimize on forecasts, but it still seems biased and unfair). TSR is the only one I think that would get consensus in group 4.

Also, this is starting to feel like a project wide decision that we are making, should we move it to the project talk page? ✶Quxyz✶ 13:43, 31 March 2024 (UTC)

Sometimes discussions go to die when they move to the project talk page, so I don't mind replying here. I think the first three groups that User:Jason Rees said make sense. They all constitute reliable sources, whether for forecasts, or for actual storm/season information. As for Group 4, it seems that Accuweather is not accurate enough for reliable source purposes. Granted, season forecasting is an inexact science. There might be 19 storms, but only 2 major hurricanes (like 2012), or 16 storms with 6 majors (like 2004), which could skew how active the season seems. I think the important thing to note is the reasoning behind these forecasts, rather than the exact numbers. If anything in group 4 adds something that none of the higher groups had, then perhaps it's worth adding. However, I feel like all of them are going to mention the likely transition from El Niño to La Niña, or the warm water temperatures (which we're already seeing signs of). I'd only think a Group 4 prediction would be useful if it was wildly different from the others, and ultimately proved accurate, like if they correctly forecast only 10 storms, when there was a strong consensus for double that (along the lines of 2006). The article is supposed to be a comprehensive look at the topic, but that doesn't mean it has to be exhaustive and include everything. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 20:04, 31 March 2024 (UTC)

I removed The Weather Channel from last years based on this discussion. It provided no new information and was not an outlier. ✶Quxyz✶ 20:52, 31 March 2024 (UTC)

University of Pennsylvania

Can someone please add this? I don't know how. https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/2024-tropical-cyclone-prediction VehicleandWeatherEnthusiast2022 (talk) 20:30, 24 April 2024 (UTC)

 Done – You are not a new inexperienced editor, no reason you could not have done it your self. Take a look at the edit ([1]), and be empowered for your future editing. Drdpw (talk) 21:12, 24 April 2024 (UTC)

Thanks, but I am not used to editing Wikipedia tables though. VehicleandWeatherEnthusiast2022 (talk) 22:54, 24 April 2024 (UTC)

I have several questions regarding adding UPenn’s forecast. One, it has not been added previously in past years, and also, the forecast is just an extremely unrealistic forecast (39 named storms? Thats 1964 WPac-level and is far more like an hypothetical forecast let alone 2020 reached only 30 annd that was an extreme scenario) and sticks out like a sore thumb. I think we should just remove it. --MarioProtIV (^talk/_contribs) 03:47, 25 April 2024 (UTC)

A UPenn forecast was included last season. Being an outlier is not a justifiable reason for removing this season's forecast. Drdpw (talk) 18:51, 25 April 2024 (UTC)

I feel like since the median is the more commonly cited number in news articles, we should use 33 instead of the range. Still a bit extreme but better and less likely to be fearmongering. ✶Quxyz✶ 20:44, 25 April 2024 (UTC)

How should "+/-" be rewritten?

UPenn's forecast is written in the body as calling for 33 (+/- 6) named storms. I don't really think "+/-" is the best thing to use in this case, but I'm stuck between replacing it with the "±" symbol or just writing "plus or minus." For this article, and for future reference too, which is more appropriate? Poxy4 (talk) 16:20, 6 May 2024 (UTC)

± is used around the astronomy side of Wikipedia (and probably other areas) so I would go with that. ✶Quxyz✶ 17:38, 6 May 2024 (UTC)