Talk:2015 Venezuelan parliamentary election

Latest comment: 3 years ago by Number 57 in topic Full results

Latest 2015 polls

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@Yeah 93: Is this the same as the other July poll that you placed already?--ZiaLater (talk) 04:07, 15 August 2015 (UTC)Reply

Yes, that's the same. But this article doesn't cite the likely voters' numbers. --yeah_93 (talk) 04:37, 15 August 2015 (UTC)Reply
@Yeah 93: Ok, thanks for checking. If you can find more polls I will try to make a graph.--ZiaLater (talk) 07:07, 15 August 2015 (UTC)Reply
There seems to be more on the spanish version of this page. Øln (talk) 08:08, 15 August 2015 (UTC)Reply
@Øln: I will take a look but I will have to be careful since the Venezuelan government uses fake polls occasionally.--ZiaLater (talk) 08:25, 15 August 2015 (UTC)Reply
I took a look and most of it looks good, though some polls had to be averaged because there were more than one by an organization in one month. Thank you.--ZiaLater (talk) 09:17, 15 August 2015 (UTC)Reply

Missing polls

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Here is one from Datanalisis stating that in March according to Datanalisis, "opposition candidates have 59.6% of the voting intentions in parliamentary" while it is "22.5% for government candidates". I know there are missing polls from the Spanish article but are there more missing polls? This one wasn't shown in both articles. We can do Google searches such as "encuestas para elecciones parlamentarias venezuela" or such for each month just to get a better picture of the polls.--ZiaLater (talk) 02:13, 22 August 2015 (UTC)Reply

Here is the Spanish article.--ZiaLater (talk) 02:19, 22 August 2015 (UTC)Reply
I try to include every poll I find. If you find more, you could include them. --yeah_93 (talk) 05:20, 23 August 2015 (UTC)Reply
I will try to add some from the Spanish article but there are a lot. If you could, make some corrections if needed.--ZiaLater (talk) 14:01, 29 August 2015 (UTC)Reply
God that ICS poll... "sample of 500 per state". That's just wonderful, I'm sure you'll obtain the great results polling the same amount of people from places like Carabobo (pop. 2.4 mil) and Barinas (pop. less than 1mil). Jesus. --yeah_93 (talk) 04:06, 30 August 2015 (UTC)Reply
ICS is kind of a joke. The government has been using their own polling organizations for awhile now. By the way, thank you for that Hinterlaces poll, I will fix that graph now.--ZiaLater (talk) 04:21, 31 August 2015 (UTC)Reply

There is a new Hercón poll. It includes a breakdown per state, but it doesn't include the national average, so I can't include it in the chart. http://barometropolitico.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/6-Analisis-integral-Hercon-Agosto-2015-1.pdf --yeah_93 (talk) 00:55, 2 September 2015 (UTC)Reply

@Yeah 93: Can you just average each state or would that be OR of some sort?--ZiaLater (talk) 00:35, 3 September 2015 (UTC)Reply
No. We don't know the base for each state. --yeah_93 (talk) 01:13, 3 September 2015 (UTC)Reply

@Yeah 93: Could you check the source I used and the data I put in? Just want to make sure were both on the same page.--ZiaLater (talk) 06:27, 16 September 2015 (UTC)Reply

I'll take a look when I can. --yeah_93 (talk) 00:05, 18 September 2015 (UTC)Reply
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How about some data showing the popular vote, since it's often at such odds with seat counts in these plurality/partial-plurality systems? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Chriswiltse (talkcontribs) 23:06, 7 December 2015 (UTC)Reply

@Chriswiltse: AFAIK the figures aren't available yet. The CNE website is not being updated very frequently... Number 57 23:12, 7 December 2015 (UTC)Reply

Indigenous members

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Some editors have repeatedly upped the MUD seat total to 112 based on the claim that the indigenous members are MUD members, which is backed up by this. However, several other sources I have seen (e.g. this or this) state that they are supporters of or aligned with the MUD, which suggests they are not actually members. Can anyone clarify this? The CNE website does not list the party affiliation of the indigenous winners. Number 57 15:39, 10 December 2015 (UTC)Reply

The CNE does identify their party affiliation. It's just that those parties aren't exactly part of the other national parties since they have to run on indigenous tickets. The 3 indigenous deputies elected belong to parties backed by the MUD, while the ones backed by the PSUV lost. They aren't official members of the MUD, but since they are their allies, their seats are added to the MUD's total. --yeah_93 (talk) 15:54, 10 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
If they are not MUD members, they shouldn't be included in the total (even if the parties they are members of support the MUD). In the UK we have a similar situation with the Northern Irish parties UUP and the SDLP, who align themselves with the Conservatives and Labour respectively, but are not included in their seat totals.
Where are the parties identified? I only see candidate names. Number 57 16:07, 10 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
Click on the candidate's name and the parties should show up. Conive, Parlinve, Miazulia are some of the names. But yeah, I think it's just a technicality. They may not be elected as part of the MUD per se, but they'll vote with them, giving them the numbers needed for the supermajority; which, in the end, is what matters to the opposition. I don't think it matters that much which numbers we put here. Let's just leave it how the CNE put it (109 MUD, 55 PSUV) and leave it at that. Whatever.--yeah_93 (talk) 16:25, 10 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
Agreed, and make sure that the data presented is consistent between the infobox and the table. Maswimelleu (talk) 16:58, 10 December 2015 (UTC)Reply

Polls section, after the election

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Now that the election is over and we have the results, does it still make sense to keep the polls there? Hamsterlopithecus (talk) 19:52, 12 December 2015 (UTC)Reply

PSUV or GPP

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I have reverted the edits to the results table for the nth time for two main reasons:

  1. The CNE sources quite clearly say PSUV rather than GPP in detailing the results
  2. The entire article refers only to the PSUV (with the exception of a detail in the infobox), and listing GPP in the results table is undoubtedly confusing to the reader.

In order for GPP to go into the results table we need (a) reliable sources stating that the results are for the GPP as a whole, not just the PSUV, and (b) the rest of the article to be amended.

Please discuss rather than continue reverting. Thanks, Number 57 14:56, 23 December 2015 (UTC)Reply

Several sources from here are attributing 52 seats to the PSUV, and 55 to the GPP in total. 2 of the remaining seats are Communist, one is from Republican Vanguard. See this segment of the article on the Spanish article here. Here's a graphic showing the results with MUD and GPP broken down into their constituent parties. Furthermore, consider a quote from this article. I machine translated it for convinience. It says: "On this occasion the sum opposition 7,707,422 votes which equates to 56.2 % of the votes obtained 112 deputies ( 67 % ) , while the Great Patriotic Pole with 5,599,025 votes representing 40.8 % of the total vote valid in the country issued 32.93 % of the total seats allocated in parliamentary elections remains with 55 deputies." Maswimelleu (talk) 15:40, 23 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
Thanks. That was actually going to be my second question – where are the current figures sourced from. Those figures you quote are not the same ones we have in the table. The breakdown of seats is very helpful though. Number 57 15:48, 23 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
They may be results before a few remaining votes were counted. The infobox on the Spanish article probably has the most reliable figures, haven't checked their source for that one yet. I propose that we change most references to the PSUV on the article to GPP and work with that. The figures need to be standardised to this new set of sources. I'm sure either of us can do this fairly quickly, although I think the results table should be set up to display the member parties of each alliance underneath an alliance total. I have no idea how best to do that, the most relevant example I can think of is how the results for the constituent parties of Podemos are set out in the results table for the 2015 Spanish General Election. Maswimelleu (talk) 15:51, 23 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
Hi. Those results are from a CNE bulletin the CNE gave to the parties. They were sent on election date, when all the votes hadn't been counted. I summed the results myself after they were updated on the CNE page (the sum of all the list votes by state) and those are the numbers I put here in the page. --yeah_93 (talk) 16:03, 23 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
The issue here is that the Venezuelan election system could create some confusion. The PSUV totals that the CNE published in their site could be only the votes that people gave explicitly to that party (clicking the card with the PSUV party logo on the electronic ballot), but you can also have to notice that the same candidates had the support from a number of smaller parties (including the Communist Party [PCV], Fatherland for All [PPT], etc.) that had their own party logos on the ballot. Given that case, a candidate (or list of candidates) could receive some "PSUV votes", "PCV votes", "PPT votes", that were all counted as a total (indeed, in the CNE results webpage you could see the total of a candidate, and when you click on the candidate name the site displays the results by the party that voters clicked when they voted). Therefore, there's no clarity if the total results given are only for the "PSUV votes", the total of votes of the parties that support the same candidates (the GPP itself), or none of the above. I hope that this explanation could clarify the issue. Regards. --Sfs90 (talk) 18:19, 24 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
Calling Number 57, I could use your second opinion on the table - it seems to look odd on my second browser, but fine on the first. It needs aligning to work correctly. Maswimelleu (talk) 19:16, 24 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
@Maswimelleu: I've fixed it. The colour column was 10px wide, plus another 1px for the cell wall, so you need to ensure that the width of the header row is 10+1+party column width.
@Yeah 93 and Sfs90: Are vote totals available for the individual parties, or just seats. Number 57 19:34, 26 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
@Number 57: As far as I know, and looking at the CNE results website, there's no nationwide party totals available (only the total of seats awarded), but a way to know the number of voters that clicked each party card on the ballot, is to add their totals by state (Miranda, Capital, Monagas, etc...). In example, if a candidate (in this case one of the GPP) receive in some state 5000 PSUV votes, 100 PCV votes, 50 PPT votes (these results displays when you clicked over the candidate name, because initially displays only the total of votes from all the parties that support their candidacy; after you clicked the name displays the totals by party card); and in other state these parties obtain other number of votes, you can add each one to their respective party, and there you could have the totals (only by an own method, because it looks that the CNE doesn't bother to calculate the totals as you [and everyone here, including me] is asking). But you can also have to notice that this method applies only to the "list vote" ("voto de lista" in Spanish), because the other part (the "circuit vote") doesn't represent clearly the preferences, as one voter could make more than 1 preference on the ballot. I hope that this information could clarify some aspects. --Sfs90 (talk) 01:20, 27 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
@Sfs90: Thanks. South American countries seem to love complex voting systems... Number 57 14:20, 27 December 2015 (UTC)Reply
@Number 57:Hmmm, as far as the opposition parties go, there isn't a popular vote tally for each one of them since there was only the MUD ticket. For the GPP, it could be done since it was split into several tickets, though it would be extremely tedious. I'll probably put the results by state for the big coalitions in a table sometime these weeks. --yeah_93 (talk) 00:35, 29 December 2015 (UTC)Reply

Full results

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Having found a site that had partially compiled, I've done a full job and it matches it with their figures and the widely published ones. While there is a total for the GPP (5,625,248) in the party-list vote, it's a bit awkward to show in the results table as there were six parties that ran with the GPP in some states but not in others. The votes that were part of the GPP are shown in red below.

An addendum to the previous discussion, all seats were formally won by either the MUD or PSUV – no minor parties won seats. I guess the issue discussed above is that in some cases the PSUV candidate was actually a member of another party. However, from the CNE's perspective, they were all PSUV. Perhaps this can be explained in the text. Cheers, Number 57 14:54, 2 October 2021 (UTC)Reply

Party Amaz Anzo Apur Arag Bari Bolí Cara Coje DA DC Falc Guar Lara Meri Mira Mona NE Port Sucr Tach Truj Varg Yara Zuli Tot
MUD 33,069 451,973 93,666 468,964 217,630 387,771 644,642 77,395 27,087 662,926 252,620 168,934 504,122 280,251 838,292 227,635 151,122 186,905 201,753 392,709 180,300 99,734 148,481 1,030,044 7,728,025
GPP
(in all states)
PSUV 28,267 262,145 105,196 338,383 158,334 225,959 401,945 78,600 41,589 434,042 178,174 164,003 365,065 136,809 515,160 186,817 86,752 204,034 177,850 162,823 159,760 79,102 132,565 580,113 5,203,487
PCV 509 4,838 1,190 6,001 2,325 4,068 11,386 2,489 354 9,651 4,022 4,287 7,835 3,299 8,255 3,975 1,416 10,866 3,955 4,430 2,555 1,239 7,184 8,214 114,343
Tupa 417 5,049 2,194 6,623 1,382 3,154 8,484 2,112 502 5,398 2,962 1,825 4,552 1,934 6,806 2,598 1,168 4,979 2,920 2,430 2,266 2,711 2,795 6,927 82,188
PPT 671 2,482 709 8,002 1,110 2,279 3,636 608 247 3,683 1,694 1,694 3,903 838 4,021 1,479 632 2,571 1,907 1,607 786 542 5,084 6,014 56,199
REDES 202 1,765 196 1,585 1,563 1,081 3,184 394 228 1,864 2,546 578 1,428 222 3,382 404 417 1,297 3,942 629 500 188 1,616 4,452 33,663
POD 53 2,329 434 3,936 404 1,921 3,124 414 124 1,322 991 602 1,094 489 2,338 524 995 1,715 1,061 683 423 349 1,974 2,348 29,647
MEP 53 1,391 270 977 232 665 1,616 759 53 935 764 493 593 298 1,023 263 193 986 1,431 461 397 209 465 4,151 18,678
UPV 43 1,353 191 798 258 640 763 198 225 1,233 502 679 1,186 567 1,080 926 218 615 436 538 792 399 1,614 1,032 16,286
NCR 1,532 83 4,554 61 319 658 828 11 234 342 52 118 45 448 219 66 263 324 363 160 253 243 1,033 12,209
IPC 11 604 76 520 165 675 763 179 57 458 253 161 422 169 1,363 1,337 99 350 596 307 181 138 342 994 10,220
ORA 44 387 73 395 127 312 740 107 19 729 249 165 382 122 554 1,222 73 301 113 184 101 122 295 673 7,489
CRV 489 63 767 352 155 821 122 20 254 1,122 77 311 133 716 208 107 235 182 212 34 259 744 7,383
VBR 59 162 137 1,429 62 278 900 87 209 135 1,222 273 264 95 199 232 34 185 45 114 79 46 203 913 7,362
AC 23 1,646 216 62 419 447 131 11 356 132 94 653 146 325 214 169 101 128 91 78 555 1,109 7,106
PIEDRA 356 22 270 34 134 217 39 8 158 330 104 72 147 52 64 87 101 39 43 62 197 2,536
PT 1,295 1,295
RENA 848 848
NM 727 727
MIPAM 712 712
PLC 525 525
PUAMA 516 516
NUGS 495 495
URS 467 467
VTV 132 4 136
GPP
(in some states)
PRT 367 71 275 496 79 60 419 177 396 775 132 318 66 399 431 224 161 685 772 6,303
UD 98 358 269 214 486 37 479 327 201 583 210 129 482 258 253 1,540 5,924
JOVEN 39 383 312 145 369 654 106 69 518 150 115 294 188 382 224 169 213 127 317 113 106 157 699 5,849
PSOEV 1,574 455 515 511 382 46 418 195 156 632 165 5,049
JUANB 21 137 27 712 16 283 233 207 387 76 85 109 112 99 233 2,737
PL 151 111 13 184 20 102 57 13 250 172 27 100 77 76 25 99 85 1,562
NUVIPA 99 2,502 1,589 8,059 1,003 6,907 5,584 396 371 17,316 2,723 1,275 13,592 1,942 16,029 2,443 682 1,800 567 1,765 3,087 1,923 1,643 11,171 104,468
BR 1,011 1,099 663 3,493 2,757 1,207 1,848 888 1,417 1,604 8,279 2,276 5,189 514 7,357 7,437 14,661 61,700
MIN 7,865 5,526 1,974 4,894 832 6,737 6,156 5,849 8,596 2,005 50,434
MAS 95 1,793 337 2,985 1,361 1,056 2,894 438 595 2,584 2,795 810 2,577 652 2,504 2,431 435 4,631 1,815 1,012 425 827 744 1,609 37,405
SI 165 131 108 126 42 329 62 31 222 128 80 21,296 32 323 23,075
PIZ 22,771 22,771
UDR 658 878 407 1,219 2,353 2,863 582 3,098 1,390 3,926 3,173 1,310 21,857
Ecolo 687 1,596 468 489 977 626 950 1,549 457 608 331 271 2,838 11,847
OPG 440 92 98 569 484 61 64 127 96 165 349 143 187 242 82 458 80 150 58 404 4,349
ML 173 342 160 175 203 24 353 299 218 131 179 223 339 398 748 3,965
EL 316 186 88 301 277 17 430 657 286 458 357 166 121 197 3,857
URD 40 196 89 284 275 62 391 871 121 95 223 124 427 108 165 3,471
US 3,304 3,304
OPINA 24 339 160 57 119 187 61 154 82 107 233 45 109 58 86 1,453 3,274
CONCIENCIA 154 204 78 223 262 106 233 148 488 162 32 303 63 96 30 2,582
PDUPL 711 459 328 326 372 2,196
DALE 2,190 2,190
GI 1,994 1,994
NOS 32 171 59 325 47 28 102 41 194 44 77 676 1,796
SEGUIMOS 1,755 1,755
PSL 133 83 79 94 78 121 235 43 100 76 187 1,229
MOPIVENE 81 48 155 126 33 131 551 1,125
ETVIVE 1,001 1,001
TB 882 882
PORESTA 683 683
M100 635 635
PROALFA 582 582
PMI 531 531
GDV 488 488
SR 482 482
MLS 426 426
MRS 275 275
NP 253 253
VTV 231 12 243
PLXRAS 155 155
PIO 86 86
RIOS 59 59
TUPAZ 59 59
Invalid 4,126 32,276 12,054 53,593 25,662 29,694 58,442 11,712 3,615 62,984 27,373 21,593 58,178 16,438 73,265 18,518 12,225 27,267 18,331 28,251 14,717 14,114 21,827 41,883 688,138
Total 70,510 793,928 221,165 920,836 416,457 680,623 1,158,898 178,518 78,437 1,221,224 493,902 370,972 980,169 458,950 1,495,037 460,040 260,404 452,414 429,712 627,292 379,045 204,910 330,583 1,751,562 14,435,588
Registered 102,449 1,054,266 329,188 1,203,967 553,531 971,310 1,548,242 236,616 116,972 1,638,456 663,287 521,089 1,251,453 596,216 2,042,420 620,937 345,033 601,018 643,754 828,970 523,353 274,908 424,905 2,404,025 19,496,365