Talk:2006 Pacific typhoon season/November

November

Week 1

91W.INVEST

91W now up. 6.2N 147.5E. – Chacor 13:24, 4 November 2006 (UTC)

JMA 18Z: low pressure area 1006 hPa 6N 148E west slowly. - SpLoT / ^(talk) 23:44, 5 November 2006 (UTC)

JMA 00Z: LPA 1010 hPa 11N 146E, W @ 10kt - SpLoT / ^(talk) 03:24, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

Gone. - SpLoT / ^(talk) 14:12, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

"99W" INVEST

SSD: 31.6N 175.2E ST3.0/3.0
JMA: Developing Low 1000 hPa 31N 175E southeast slowly -- グリフオーザー 03:49, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

Neither the JTWC nor CPHC track subtropical cyclones, however, so this will have to go down as something that won't be recorded as one... – Chacor 04:19, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

odd the SSD bulletin for 4am UTC update reads location is 14N 113E now but on the position and intensity page still has previous area. o_0 -- グリフオーザー 04:53, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

Mistake above? 113E? - SpLoT / ^(talk) 14:12, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

JMA 06Z: DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA AT 31N 176E NORTHWEST OF MIDWAYS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST SLOWLY. WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. - SpLoT / ^(talk) 14:12, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

Now ST2.5 from SSD. KNES/SAB bulletin notes:

CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ON THE WESTERN SIDE DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS. FLORIDA STATE AND PENN STATE UNIVERSITY ANALYZED
CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE 18Z 06 NOVEMBER GFS RUN
INDICATES THIS IS A SHALLOW ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE SYSTEM. 

– Chacor 14:26, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

There's a discrepancy here - the main page says ST3.0, but the bulletin says ST2.5. Whatever it is, the latest bulletin indicates that convection is developing closer to the center. --Coredesat 18:09, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

The western Pacific definitely doesn't include STs in their operational warning strategy. The central Pacific is interesting in that NHC maintains the database for the Pacific east of the dateline even though CPHC is the warning center. I've been maintaining an informal subtropical cyclone database, which includes some cases from the Pacific for the past decade, but it is not complete. It appears in the central and eastern Pacific STs are rarer than areas like the north Atlantic basin, near Madagascar, and the east coast of Australia. As for the western Pacific, I have no idea. Thegreatdr 19:54, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO BAND AROUND THE CENTER. FLORIDA STATE AND PENN STATE UNIVERSITY ANALYZED CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE 12Z 07 NOVEMBER GFS RUN INDICATES THIS IS A SHALLOW SYMMETRIC WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED TO TROPICAL. -- グリフオーザー 01:28, 8 November 2006 (UTC)

Dead from SSD: REMARKS...SYSTEM IS LARGELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND IS UNCLASSIFIABLE BY DVORAK STANDARDS. MET IS 1.5 WHILE PT IS 1.0. FT BASED ON MET. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. --Coredesat 01:05, 9 November 2006 (UTC)

Interestingly, there was imagery on NRL, but it was hidden. NRL apparently had this up as a 60W.INVEST. It certainly looked impressive. --Coredesat 06:52, 9 November 2006 (UTC)

JMA 9 Nov 0000 UTC: LOW 1006 HPA AT 24N 173E SSW 15 KT. - SpLoT / ^(talk) 07:01, 9 November 2006 (UTC)

JMA 10 Nov 0600 UTC: LOW 1006 HPA AT 18N 169E SSW 15 KT. - SpLoT / ^(talk) 11:19, 10 November 2006 (UTC)

JMA 11 Nov 0000 UTC: LOW 1010 HPA AT 16N 166E SW 10 KT. - SpLoT / ^(talk) 04:52, 11 November 2006 (UTC)

Gone from JMA. - SpLoT / ^(talk) 04:52, 12 November 2006 (UTC)

Week 2

92W.INVEST

6N 170E. -- RattleMan 13:17, 10 November 2006 (UTC)

Poof! It's gone! - SpLoT / ^(talk) 04:53, 12 November 2006 (UTC)

Week 3

24W.DURIAN

92W.INVEST...again

6.1N 153E -- グリフオーザー 03:51, 24 November 2006 (UTC)

FNMOC only. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 07:18, 24 November 2006 (UTC)

Several centres of convection, but it's got some spin. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 07:20, 24 November 2006 (UTC)

JTWC 6am UTC: -- グリフオーザー 08:51, 24 November 2006 (UTC)
Area of convection near 6.1ºN 153.5ºE or 120 nm southeast of Chuuk. Imagery shows a broad region of cyclonic turning in a low to mid level the convection over that area has been persistent over the past 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are 15 to 20 knots with a center pressure of 1004 mb. The potential of this system developing into a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours is poor.

JMA 6am UTC: LPA 1006 hPa near 06N 152E west 15 kt. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 09:16, 24 November 2006 (UTC)

On NRL. This system could develop. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 15:02, 24 November 2006 (UTC)

JMA 12pm UTC: LPA 1008 hPa near 06N 150E west 15 kt. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 15:12, 24 November 2006 (UTC)

JTWC 12am UTC: -- グリフオーザー 04:13, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
Area of convection near 7.5ºN 148.2ºE or 170 nm west-southeast of Chuuk. Imagery shows a broad but persistent convection cyclonic low beginning to form into a more distinctive low level circulation center. Vertical wind shear is beginning to decrease over the disturbance. Maximum sustained surface winds are 15 to 20 knots with a center pressure of 1003 mb. The potential of this system developing into a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours has been upgraded to fair.

JMA 12am UTC: LPA 1008 hPa near 06N 149E west 10 kt. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 05:31, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

JMA TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 10N 147E WNW 15 KT -- RattleMan 09:04, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

JMA 12pm UTC: TD 1004 hPa at 10N 146E WNW 15 kt. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 15:59, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

24W.NONAME

TD24W on NRL. -- RattleMan 19:40, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

first warning is out by JTWC. -- グリフオーザー 20:41, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 24W

JTWC forecast takes this storm to 135 knots in the long range outlook . -- グリフオーザー 02:47, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
Looks like the Philippines (and probably Vietnam?) will take another beating by a strong typhoon. Insanephantom 03:33, 26 November 2006 (UTC)

Same forecast track as Cimaron and Chebi. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:42, 26 November 2006 (UTC)

92W.INVEST and 24W.NONAME are both on NRL. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:44, 26 November 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Durian

T0621 Durian now. -- グリフオーザー 07:38, 26 November 2006 (UTC)

Intensification slowing down. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 02:11, 27 November 2006 (UTC)

The Philippines can't catch a break late this season. JTWC is calling for a Cat 4 over the Philippines. —Cuiviénen 02:44, 27 November 2006 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm "Reming" advisories should begin now. -- グリフオーザー 02:55, 28 November 2006 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Durian

STS Durian from JMA, TS 24W from JTWC, TS Reming from PAGASA. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 13:58, 28 November 2006 (UTC)

Typhoon Durian

70 knots reported from JMA. -- グリフオーザー 19:25, 28 November 2006 (UTC)

Typhoon Durian/24W/Reming from all agencies. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:10, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

Intensifying faster now. 125 kts, as reported by FNMOC. Insanephantom 09:05, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

Signal #4 issued for Catanduanes by PAGASA. This makes Durian the third storm in a row to warrant that warning. --Coredesat 09:25, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

(edit conflict) PAGASA sez: ""REMING" has intensified into a super typhoon and now endangers the Bicol region. Maximum sustained winds of 190 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 225 kph" -- RattleMan 09:26, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

Direct hit on Metro Manila predicted by all agencies, JTWC says it'll be a cat3-equivalent. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 10:20, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

User:Chacor/Sandbox/Durian 0621. If this makes a direct hit on Manila like Xangsane it'll need an article. – Chacor 11:04, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

Super Typhoon 24W (Durian)

Super Typhoon from JTWC with 1-minute sustained winds of 135kt and gusts of 165kt, forecast to make direct hit on Manila (0 nm). This could be a lot worse than Xangsane. It's a tad short of cat5, 5 landfalls to be made on the Philippines: Philippine Sea > Catanduanes > Maqueda Channel > Camarines Sur > San Miguel Bay > Camarines Norte > Quezon + possibility of more from Polillo Island > Lamon Bay > Quezon again > Laguna de Bay + possibility of more from Laguna islands > Metro Manila > Manila Bay > Bataan > South China Sea - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 15:00, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

PAGASA Storm Signal #4 on 4 provinces: Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 15:42, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

PAGASA + JTWC - 135 kts which = 155.5 so its a Cat 5 mega storm 87.74.89.127 16:07, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

What what what? What is 155.5? It's a cat4 still, 136 knots would be a cat5. But it's already a Super Typhoon. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 16:12, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

uh.. I don't get it.. 195 kph you're getting at? -- グリフオーザー 23:24, 29 November 2006 (UTC)

JTWC downgraded STY24W --> TY24W, it's at 125kt (1-min), still cat4. Should move generally W to WNW, turning to NW in 48-72h. PAGASA recognizes a southern Catanduanes landfall which was corroborated with a news source, but officially JMA does not recognize this landfall, and neither does JTWC. Due to these circumstances, I have hidden the entry about the Catanduanes landfall in the timeline and left an explanation message. We will have to wait until the JMA's best tracks are released. However, since the article is self-explanatory, there is no need to remove this landfall from there, as it has been explained. Second landfall in northeastern Albay province, unsure of exact location as JMA map is quite unclear and PAGASA's site is down. Next few landfalls should be as follows: Ragay Gulf > Bondoc Peninsula (Quezon) > Maybe Mompog Pass > Maybe Marinduque > Tayabas Bay > Batangas > South China Sea. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 09:42, 30 November 2006 (UTC)

Nearly 400 dead, unfortunately. Definitely will need an article after it dissipates. CrazyC83 16:52, 1 December 2006 (UTC)

We could have a basin-crosser on our hands. At 12Z, JMA 48hr 35 kt TS over Phnum Pénh, and 72hr in Gulf of Thailand as a TD. – Chacor 13:42, 3 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC 03/1500: AS EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 031210Z SSMIS IMAGE, TY 24W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND NOW HAS A 32-NM RAGGED, BANDING EYE. TY 24W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. TY 24W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 BUT THE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION. Likely to make landfall by 04/1200 UTC on Nha Trang, and then rapidly weaken over southern Vietnam close to both Ho Chi Minh City and Phnom Penh. As JTWC mentions, possible regeneration. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 16:54, 3 December 2006 (UTC)

Now a typhoon again from JMA, amazingly enough. --Coredesat 20:50, 4 December 2006 (UTC)

yup JTWC upgraded as well and has it making landfall southwest of Ho Chi Minh and Tailand and still a tropical storm in the Bay of Bengal. -- グリフオーザー 21:26, 4 December 2006 (UTC)

It briefly made landfall just east of the Mekong Delta. Pobbie Rarr 02:19, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

Unconfirmed landfall, care to specify? - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:21, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

It's not on JMA, and NRL doesn't appear to show it either. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:24, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

Very weird storm indeed. Unexpected too. We've got a disaster on our hands, as Core said on IRC. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:21, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

1 landfall confirmed, near Ho Chi Minh City. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:24, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC track has it entering the bay of bengal as a tropical storm. Wonder if it will get a new name? Reub2000 03:34, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

Unlikely per Hurricane Ioke, crossovers retain original basin name. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:46, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

So it would become Severe Cyclonic Storm Durian?Reub2000 04:09, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

Yes, it would still be Durian, if IMD recognizes it and it still has TS/CS strength. --Coredesat 04:15, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

hmm so new names assigned are getting uncommon now except when a storm crosses the equator or goes from South Pacific into the South Indian Ocean.. -- グリフオーザー 04:46, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

Storms don't cross the equator. If an Australian (Perth or Darwin) storm crosses west into Réunion, then it gets a new name. In the Nhem, a storm has to lose its LLCC. – Chacor 04:50, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

oh okay, I understand now. -- グリフオーザー 06:32, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

It's back: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 100E WEST 20 KT. --Coredesat 04:33, 6 December 2006 (UTC)

It was never gone. JMA continues to carry ex-TSes in their weather charts until dissipation or it leaves their AOR. – Chacor 05:18, 6 December 2006 (UTC)

An area of convection near 9.9ºN 98.5ºE or 360 nm east-southeast of Andaman Islands. Imagery shows an improved consolidation and well defined low level circulation center. Analysis shows the area is within improving environment with low vertical wind sheer. Maximum sustained winds are 20 to 25 knots with a center pressure of 1004mb. Potential development to form into a tropical cyclone is fair.
-- グリフオーザー 06:29, 6 December 2006 (UTC)

This thing could definitely regen. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 08:14, 6 December 2006 (UTC)

Durian has crossed over to the North Indian Ocean has depression strength, now at 10.5N 95.9E 20knots and 1004mb. --Ugaap 05:07, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

Incorrect, it does NOT have depression strength from the JMA, JTWC OR the IMD. Don't say so unless it's true. – Chacor 05:08, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

Not really. Thailand kept Durian a tropical depression with maximum wind speed 50 kilometer per hour throughout the passage from Gulf of Thailand to Andaman Sea. The information from the meteorological department of the country being affected should never be neglected.

Personally, I think the purpose of keeping Durian a depression was simply to raise public awareness and Durian was not that strong at that time. It looked like a remnant low.Momoko

JTWC 530am UTC "broad weak low level circulation center but still within a region of low vertical shear. Maximum sustained winds 10 to 15 knots 1008 mb potential for development into a tropical cyclone has been downgraded to poor.
-- グリフオーザー 06:33, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

NRL location 11.4N 93.2E 20knots 1004 mb. It is North Indian Ocean. --Ugaap 13:49, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

T number 1.5 intensity for Durian -- グリフオーザー 01:54, 8 December 2006 (UTC)