The Sea wall is a term used by psephologists to refer to battleground constituencies along the UK coastline.[1] The sea wall is predominantly Conservative voting but is home to many marginal seats that are vulnerable to Labour according to opinion polls.[2] Along with Red wall and Blue wall, the Sea wall overlaps both,[3] and has been used in coverage for the next general election. There are thought to be 108 such constituencies.[4] In the 2019 general election Labour won just 24 of these seats.[5]
Coastal constituencies in England and Wales are noted for deprivation.[6][7] They are personified by tourism based economies, the cost of living crisis and poor connectivity.[8] Coastal communities are known to have lower wages compared to people living and working inland.[9] The availability of affordable housing has also been an issue.[10]
The thinktank Onward has called coastal areas “the forgotten battleground that could decide the next election”.[11]
Background edit
The term was used 2022 local elections when the Labour Party took majority control of Worthing Borough Council just five years after winning their first councillor in the district.[12] Labour are considered to be competitive in Conservative areas on south coast like Plymouth, Bournemouth, Southampton and Portsmouth.[13]
Research from the Fabian Society was reported on that Labour had unprecedented polling leads over the Conservatives.[14] The "sea wall" is regarded by them as an important area for the next general election.[15] YouGov polling showed that 44% of voters in the sea wall said they would never consider voting Conservative.[16]
Jaywick in Tendring District in Essex is the most deprived neighbourhood in England.[17] The Clacton constituency was noted for being the only place to elect a UKIP MP in a general election.[18] Since Brexit, Conservative support in coastal areas that voted Leave has been waning.[19]
Labour won the 2024 Blackpool South by-election with a large swing.[20]
References edit
- ^ "National Swing Man, the British electorate's new-old tribe". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2024-04-09.
- ^ Walker, Ben (2022-12-14). "How Labour has overtaken the Conservatives in "Sea Wall" battlegrounds". State of the Nation. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ Savage, Michael (2023-06-10). "Labour has clear lead over Tories in more than 100 battleground seats, poll finds". The Observer. ISSN 0029-7712. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ Boucott-Owen, Mason (16 December 2022). "Tories set to lose 'Sea Wall' of coastal seats". The Yorkshire Post.
- ^ Association, Press (2017-09-04). "Seaside towns among most deprived communities in UK". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ "Coastal communities among worst off in UK, report finds". BBC News. 2017-09-03. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ Thomas, Jane (2024-01-11). "Sea wall replaces red wall: can Labour win the coast?". Yorkshire Bylines. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ "Coastal communities: Residents earn £1,600 less than people inland". BBC News. 2019-10-09. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ "Locals at risk of being priced out of Britain's prettiest coastal towns". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ Green, Daniel (2024-04-14). "Adur local elections: How a red wave can end 25-year Tory grip on south coast". LabourList. Retrieved 2024-04-24.
- ^ "Sussex election results 2022: Labour wins control of Worthing for first time". BBC News. 2022-05-06. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ Stewart, Heather (2022-05-06). "From 'red wall' to 'sea wall': five things we learned from the local elections". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows | Politics News - The South Yorkshire Scoop". thesouthyorkshirescoop.com. 2024-02-23. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ "Breaching the Sea Wall | Fabian Society". Fabian Society - The Fabian Society is Britain’s oldest political think tank. Founded in 1884, the Society is at the forefront of developing political ideas and public policy on the left. 2022-12-14. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ FM, Seaside. "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Seaside FM. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ "England's most deprived areas named as Jaywick and Blackpool". BBC News. 2019-09-26. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ McSmith, Andy (10 October 2014). "Clacton by-election: Douglas Carswell becomes Ukip's first ever elected MP after a sensational victory". The Independent.
- ^ Moore, Hannah (2023-09-19). "Clacton-on-Sea: the 'forgotten' town that voted for Brexit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
- ^ Stacey, Kiran; Vinter, Robyn (2024-05-03). "Starmer hails Blackpool South win as result points to big Labour victory at general election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-05-05.