The Mackerras New South Wales election pendulum, 2005 shows the state of the major political parties ahead of the 2007 New South Wales state election. The table shows seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly arranged in the form of a Mackerras pendulum. The figures have been calculated on the basis of a redistribution completed in 2005.
A uniform swing against the incumbent Labor Party government would deliver seats on the left of the table to the opposition Liberal and National parties. A swing in the government's favour would deliver seats on the right of the table to Labor.
MPs shown in italics did not contest the 2007 election.
Very safe seats
editDistrict | Member | Party | Margin | District | Member | Party | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Port Maccquarie | Rob Oakeshott [1] | Independent | 31.9 points | ||||
Cabramatta | Reba Meagher | Labor | 31.8 points | ||||
Marrickville | Carmel Tebbutt [2] | Labor | 31.6 points | ||||
Liverpool | Paul Lynch | Labor | 30.8 points | ||||
Northern Tablelands | Richard Torbay [1] | Independent | 30.0 points | ||||
Lakemba | Morris Iemma | Labor | 28.8 points | ||||
Canterbury | Linda Burney | Labor | 27.6 points | ||||
Wollongong | Noreen Hay | Labor | 27.4 points | ||||
Shellharbour [3] | Marianne Saliba | Labor | 27.0 points | ||||
Mount Druitt | Richard Amery | Labor | 26.8 points | ||||
Auburn | Barbara Perry | Labor | 26.5 points | ||||
Bankstown | Tony Stewart | Labor | 26.4 points | ||||
Fairfield | Joe Tripodi | Labor | 26.0 points | ||||
Smithfield | Carl Scully | Labor | 25.9 points | ||||
Blacktown | Paul Gibson | Labor | 24.9 points | ||||
Keira | David Campbell | Labor | 24.0 points | ||||
Heffron | Kristina Keneally | Labor | 23.9 points | ||||
Maroubra | Michael Daley | Labor | 23.5 points | ||||
Macquarie Fields | Steven Chaytor | Labor | 22.6 points | Albury | Greg Aplin | Liberal | 22.5 points |
Wallsend | John Mills | Labor | 20.1 points | Davidson | Andrew Humpherson | Liberal | 20.9 points |
Safe seats
editDistrict | Member | Party | Margin | District | Member | Party | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Campbelltown | Graham West | Labor | 19.6 points | ||||
Granville | Kim Yeadon | Labor | 19.4 points | ||||
Kogarah | Cherie Burton | Labor | 19.3 points | ||||
East Hills | Alan Ashton | Labor | 18.6 points | ||||
Cessnock | Kerry Hickey | Labor | 18.5 points | ||||
Balmain [4] | Sandra Nori[5] | Labor | 17.6 points | ||||
Swansea | Vacant[6] | Labor | 17.1 points | ||||
Toongabbie | Pam Allan[7] | Labor | 16.7 points | ||||
Mulgoa | Diane Beamer | Labor | 16.6 points | ||||
Rockdale | Frank Sartor | Labor | 16.0 points | ||||
Newcastle | Bryce Gaudry | Labor[8] | 15.4 points | Murrumbidgee | Adrian Piccoli | National | 18.9 points |
Strathfield | Virginia Judge | Labor | 14.9 points | Ku-ring-gai | Barry O'Farrell | Liberal | 18.8 points |
Blue Mountains | Bob Debus | Labor | 14.8 points | Sydney | Clover Moore [9] | Independent | 15.0 points |
Ryde | John Watkins | Labor | 14.7 points | Barwon | Ian Slack-Smith | National | 14.7 points |
Oatley [10] | Kevin Greene | Labor | 14.2 points | Hawkesbury | Steven Pringle | Liberal[11] | 14.6 points |
Parramatta | Tanya Gadiel | Labor | 13.5 points | Myall Lakes | John Turner | National | 13.9 points |
Bathurst | Gerard Martin | Labor | 13.4 points | Wakehurst | Brad Hazzard | Liberal | 13.2 points |
Charlestown | Matthew Morris | Labor | 13.3 points | Wagga Wagga | Daryl Maguire | Liberal | 12.7 points |
Coogee | Paul Pearce | Labor | 13.2 points | Burrinjuck | Katrina Hodgkinson | National | 12.4 points |
Riverstone | John Aquilina | Labor | 13.1 points | North Shore | Jillian Skinner | Liberal | 12.3 points |
Heathcote | Paul McLeay | Labor | 12.3 points | Coffs Harbour | Andrew Fraser | National | 11.9 points |
Wyong | Paul Crittenden | Labor | 12.2 points | Vaucluse | Peter Debnam | Liberal | 10.9 points |
Lake Macquarie | Jeff Hunter | Labor | 11.6 points | Castle Hill [12] | Michael Richardson | Liberal | 10.8 points |
Fairly safe seats
editDistrict | Member | Party | Margin | District | Member | Party | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maitland | John Price | Labor | 9.8 points | ||||
The Entrance | Grant McBride | Labor | 9.6 points | ||||
Miranda | Barry Collier | Labor | 8.9 points | ||||
Drummoyne | Angela D'Amore | Labor | 8.8 points | ||||
Menai | Alison Megarrity | Labor | 8.4 points | Oxley | Andrew Stoner | National | 9.7 points |
Camden | Geoff Corrigan | Labor | 8.3 points | Ballina | Don Page | National | 9.1 points |
Londonderry | Allan Shearan | Labor | 8.2 points | Cronulla | Malcolm Kerr | Liberal | 8.6 points |
Gosford | Marie Andrews [13] | Labor | 8.2 points | Lismore | Thomas George | National | 8.1 points |
Kiama | Matt Brown | Labor | 8.1 points | Epping | Andrew Tink | Liberal | 7.6 points |
Port Stephens | John Bartlett | Labor | 7.2 points | Willoughby | Gladys Berejiklian | Liberal | 7.4 points |
Penrith | Karyn Paluzzano | Labor | 6.6 points | Upper Hunter | George Souris | National | 7.2 points |
Marginal seats
editDistrict | Member | Party | Margin | District | Member | Party | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orange | Russell Turner | National | 5.9 points | ||||
Clarence | Steve Cansdell | National | 5.3 points | ||||
Bega | Andrew Constance | Liberal | 4.7 points | ||||
Pittwater | Alex McTaggart [14] | Independent | 5.4 points | Goulburn | Peta Seaton[15] | Liberal | 4.5 points |
Wollondilly | New seat | Labor | 4.6 points | Hornsby | Judy Hopwood | Liberal | 4.2 points |
Monaro | Steve Whan | Labor | 4.4 points | Baulkham Hills | Wayne Merton | Liberal | 4.0 points |
Tweed | Neville Newell | Labor | 4.0 points | Lane Cove | Anthony Roberts | Liberal | 2.8 points |
Tamworth | Peter Draper [1] | Independent | 1.9 points | South Coast | Shelley Hancock | Liberal | 1.6 points |
Manly | David Barr [14] | Independent | 1.2 points | Murray-Darling | Peter Black [16] | Labor | −1.4 points |
Dubbo | Dawn Fardell [1] | Independent | 0.3 points | Terrigal [17] | Chris Hartcher | Liberal | 0.6 points |
Independents
editA version of the table published in The Australian on 19 February 2007[18] showed all seats as effectively Coalition or Labor depending on the favoured major party among the electorate's voters. On this interpretation, Clover Moore's seat of Sydney is shown on the government side, alone among the seven sitting independents.
Notes
edit- ^ a b c d Two-candidate preferred result against Nationals
- ^ Two-candidate preferred result against Liberals shown. Two-candidate preferred result against Greens, who polled second, was 10.0 points
- ^ Seat formerly known as Illawarra
- ^ Seat formerly known as Port Jackson
- ^ Two-candidate preferred margin to Liberals shown. Two-candidate preferred margin to Greens, who polled second in this electorate, is 7.1 points
- ^ Seat formerly held by Milton Orkopoulos. No by-election held after MP's resignation.
- ^ Allen held now-abolished district of Wentworthville, but is not running again.
- ^ Gaudry is recontesting the seat as an independent
- ^ Margin to ALP shown
- ^ Seat formerly known as Georges River
- ^ Pringle is recontesting the seat as an independent
- ^ Electorate formerly known as The Hills
- ^ Andrews currently represents the now-abolished seat of Peats
- ^ a b Two-candidate preferred result against Liberal Party
- ^ Seaton represented the now-abolished seat of Southern Highlands
- ^ Notional National Party seat
- ^ Seat formerly known as Gosford
- ^ "The Australian | The Australian Homepage | TheAustralian". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Retrieved 16 July 2010.