Opinion polling for the 2011 Portuguese legislative election

In the run up to the 2011 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous legislative election, held on 27 September 2009, to the day the next election was held, on 5 June 2011.

Nationwide polling

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Graphical summary

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Polling

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Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Date Polling Firm Sample size           Others Lead
5 June 2011 legislative election 5,585,054 28.1
74 seats
38.7
108 seats
11.7
24 seats
5.2
8 seats
7.9
16 seats
8.5
0 seats
10.7
5 Jun (20:00) Exit Poll - RTP1
Universidade Católica
28,762 26.0–30.0
67 / 77
37.0–42.0
104 / 114
11.0–14.0
22 / 28
5.0–7.0
8 / 11
7.0–9.0
14 / 18
5.0–8.0
0 / 1
11.0
12.0
5 Jun (20:00) Exit Poll - SIC
Eurosondagem
42,712 25.5–29.7
69 / 77
38.3–42.5
102 / 109
11.1–13.9
22 / 25
4.5–6.7
7 / 10
6.8–9.0
15 / 16
12.8
5 Jun (20:00) Exit Poll - TVI
INTERCAMPUS
29,636 24.4–28.8
64 / 78
37.7–42.5
107 / 121
10.1–13.7
12 // 28
3.8–7.0
4 / 12
6.2–9.4
11 / 20
6.6–9.8
0 / 1
13.3
13.7
Exit polls
2 Jun Eurosondagem 520 31.0 35.5 13.0 6.3 8.2 6.0 4.5
31 May–2 Jun Aximage 968 29.2 37.4 12.5 6.7 8.0 6.2 8.2
1 Jun Eurosondagem 507 31.1 35.9 13.0 5.9 7.8 6.3 4.8
29 May–1 Jun Aximage 1,200 30.1 36.3 12.4 6.6 8.1 6.5 6.2
28 May–1 Jun INTERCAMPUS 1,026 31.1 36.5 11.6 6.0 7.4 7.3 5.4
31 May Eurosondagem 503 31.3 35.4 13.4 6.0 7.9 6.0 4.1
28–31 May Marktest 1,208 30.1 38.5 9.7 4.5 8.5 8.7 8.4
30 May Eurosondagem 522 32.2 35.5 12.6 6.3 7.6 5.8 3.3
28–29 May Universidade Católica 3,963 31.0 36.0 11.0 7.0 8.0 7.0 5.0
29 May Eurosondagem 505 32.1 34.7 12.9 6.3 7.7 6.3 2.6
25–29 May INTERCAMPUS 1,010 32.3 37.0 12.7 5.2 7.7 5.2 4.7
27 May Eurosondagem 521 32.4 33.7 13.2 6.4 7.8 6.5 1.3
26 May Eurosondagem 511 32.3 33.9 13.4 6.3 7.9 6.2 1.6
21–26 May INTERCAMPUS 1,015 34.1 35.8 11.3 6.5 7.7 4.5 1.7
25 May Eurosondagem 515 32.5 33.6 12.8 6.5 8.1 6.5 1.1
24 May Eurosondagem 510 32.0 33.7 13.2 6.7 8.1 6.7 1.7
23 May Eurosondagem 525 32.6 33.1 13.7 6.6 7.6 6.4 0.5
21–22 May Universidade Católica 1,490 36.0 36.0 10.0 6.0 9.0 3.0 Tied
18–22 May INTERCAMPUS 1,024 33.2 39.6 12.1 5.6 6.6 3.0 6.4
14–18 May Aximage 750 29.5 31.1 12.9 5.2 7.3 14.0 1.6
11–15 May INTERCAMPUS 1,025 35.4 36.1 12.6 6.2 7.5 2.2 0.7
7–12 May INTERCAMPUS 1,029 36.8 33.9 13.4 6.0 7.4 2.4 2.9
9–10 May Marktest 805 33.4 39.7 9.0 4.8 6.5 6.6 6.3
4–8 May INTERCAMPUS 1,020 35.1 36.2 10.9 6.5 7.7 3.6 1.1
2–5 May INTERCAMPUS 1,009 34.8 37.0 10.5 7.0 7.9 2.8 2.2
28 Apr–May 3 Eurosondagem 2,048 32.5 35.8 11.1 6.6 7.7 6.3 3.3
29 Apr–May 2 Aximage 600 28.3 31.5 11.2 7.7 9.3 12.0 3.2
30 Apr–May 1 Universidade Católica 1,370 36.0 34.0 10.0 5.0 9.0 6.0 2.0
14–19 Apr Eurosondagem 1,025 32.7 36.3 11.3 6.9 7.8 5.0 3.6
15–17 Apr Marktest 805 36.1 35.3 7.5 6.0 8.1 7.0 0.8
8–10 Apr INTERCAMPUS 917 33.1 38.7 9.4 7.6 8.1 3.1 5.6
2–3 Apr Universidade Católica 1,288 33.0 39.0 7.0 6.0 8.0 7.0 6.0
28–30 Mar Aximage 600 28.4 34.8 10.8 6.5 8.5 11.0 6.4
27–30 Mar Eurosondagem 1,021 30.4 37.3 10.7 7.7 8.4 5.5 6.9
24–26 Mar INTERCAMPUS 805 32.8 42.2 8.7 7.9 7.1 1.3 9.4
18–23 Mar Marktest 805 24.5 46.7 6.3 8.9 6.7 6.9 22.2
3–7 Mar Aximage 600 27.9 37.9 8.9 6.5 10.7 8.1 10.0
23–28 Feb Eurosondagem 1,021 30.6 36.9 9.9 7.7 8.6 6.3 6.3
17–23 Feb Marktest 797 29.1 47.8 4.2 5.9 6.1 6.9 18.7
3–8 Feb Eurosondagem 1,025 29.3 36.3 10.2 9.5 9.2 5.5 7.0
1–3 Feb Aximage 600 27.8 37.8 9.5 6.5 9.3 9.1 10.0
19–21 Jan Eurosondagem 1,548 30.3 37.4 9.6 9.3 8.4 5.0 7.1
16–19 Jan INTERCAMPUS 1,004 30.8 36.8 5.8 7.3 7.1 12.2 6.0
5–11 Jan Eurosondagem 1,010 29.6 37.3 10.1 9.0 8.8 5.2 7.7
3–6 Jan Aximage 600 25.4 38.3 8.8 7.5 9.9 10.1 12.9
2011
10–15 Dec INTERCAMPUS 607 30.1 41.6 7.7 10.7 8.8 1.1 11.5
5–7 Dec Aximage 600 27.2 39.8 8.8 7.4 8.4 8.4 12.6
2–7 Dec Eurosondagem 1,020 30.3 36.2 9.6 9.3 8.4 6.2 5.9
16–19 Nov Marktest 804 26.9 44.3 6.9 8.7 6.7 6.5 17.4
12–17 Nov INTERCAMPUS 609 30.5 39.2 8.5 11.0 9.7 1.1 8.7
4–9 Nov Eurosondagem 1,025 30.0 36.9 9.3 9.2 8.8 5.8 6.9
26–29 Oct Aximage 600 26.5 35.2 9.1 8.4 9.8 11.0 8.7
23–25 Oct Universidade Católica 1,140 26.0 40.0 7.0 12.0 8.0 7.0 14.0
19–24 Oct Marktest 807 25.1 42.0 8.1 9.8 8.3 6.7 16.9
6–12 Oct Eurosondagem 1,021 35.3 35.3 8.0 7.8 8.4 5.2 Tied
4–6 Oct INTERCAMPUS 609 32.0 35.2 9.1 10.6 11.1 2.0 3.2
1–4 Oct Aximage 600 31.7 30.6 10.2 8.6 7.6 11.3 1.1
14–17 Sep Marktest 804 35.7 38.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.6 2.3
6–9 Sep Aximage 600 33.8 32.1 7.9 8.3 8.6 9.3 1.7
1–7 Sep Eurosondagem 1,035 36.0 35.8 8.4 7.1 7.7 5.0 0.2
28 Jul–Aug 2 Eurosondagem 1,031 35.0 36.0 9.0 7.2 8.0 4.8 1.0
20–26 Jul Marktest 802 33.3 37.3 7.5 8.5 6.8 6.6 4.0
16–19 Jul INTERCAMPUS 603 34.4 39.2 5.9 9.0 9.5 2.0 4.8
8–11 Jul Euroexpansão 1,504 31.7 41.0 3.8 6.5 6.3 10.7 9.3
1–6 Jul Eurosondagem 1,035 33.7 36.2 9.6 7.7 8.0 4.8 2.5
1–4 Jul Aximage 600 30.6 34.9 6.7 8.2 10.4 9.2 4.3
19–21 Jun Universidade Católica 1,179 34.0 37.0 6.0 6.0 10.0 7.0 3.0
15–20 Jun Marktest 804 24.1 47.7 6.9 8.9 6.0 6.4 23.6
2–8 Jun Eurosondagem 1,025 34.8 34.9 10.1 7.7 7.5 5.0 0.1
1–7 Jun Aximage 600 30.5 31.6 7.4 9.7 9.9 10.9 1.1
18–20 May Marktest 804 27.6 43.9 7.5 7.7 7.1 6.2 16.3
13–18 May Eurosondagem 1,024 36.2 33.0 11.3 7.1 7.7 4.7 3.2
4–7 May Aximage 600 30.2 31.5 8.2 8.6 10.4 11.1 1.3
27–30 Apr INTERCAMPUS 803 35.8 41.6 5.8 7.8 7.8 1.2 5.8
20–25 Apr Marktest 800 34.0 39.8 4.5 8.3 7.2 6.2 5.8
8–13 Apr Eurosondagem 1,020 36.0 28.5 13.1 8.0 8.2 6.2 7.5
5–8 Apr Aximage 600 32.2 30.4 10.8 8.3 8.7 9.6 1.8
16–21 Mar Marktest 806 35.6 30.8 9.9 11.0 6.6 6.1 4.8
6–9 Mar Universidade Católica 1,148 41.0 33.0 10.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 8.0
5–9 Mar Aximage 600 34.0 25.1 11.5 8.9 7.4 13.1 8.9
4–9 Mar Eurosondagem 1,019 36.9 26.2 14.8 8.8 8.4 4.9 10.7
23–27 Feb INTERCAMPUS 1,015 40.4 34.4 7.8 10.1 6.3 1.0 6.0
16–21 Feb Marktest 804 35.9 30.9 9.5 10.6 6.8 6.3 5.0
10–13 Feb Aximage 600 32.4 26.3 10.7 9.2 8.3 13.1 6.1
4–9 Feb Eurosondagem 1,025 38.1 26.9 13.6 8.4 8.3 4.7 11.2
2–5 Feb Aximage 600 33.8 24.8 12.1 8.6 8.7 12.0 9.0
19–23 Jan Marktest 803 40.5 29.2 10.2 5.5 8.5 6.1 11.3
7–12 Jan Eurosondagem 1,010 38.0 27.4 12.1 9.3 8.4 4.8 10.6
6–11 Jan Aximage 600 33.4 26.5 11.7 10.0 8.2 10.2 6.9
2010
7–10 Dec Aximage 600 32.5 24.4 12.0 10.5 7.7 12.9 8.1
25 Nov–Dec 1 Eurosondagem 1,031 38.5 26.9 12.7 9.2 7.7 5.0 11.6
17–19 Nov Marktest 808 41.7 25.6 12.1 8.0 6.5 6.1 16.1
3–6 Nov Aximage 600 35.2 27.3 10.3 8.8 7.8 10.6 7.9
29 Oct–Nov 3 Eurosondagem 1,030 38.8 27.5 12.5 8.4 8.0 4.8 11.3
20–24 Oct Marktest 806 42.9 23.7 12.5 8.8 6.0 6.1 19.2
12–16 Oct Aximage 600 35.3 25.4 9.7 10.8 6.0 12.8 9.9
11 October 2009 2009 local elections 5,535,104 37.7 38.8 3.1 3.0 9.7 7.7 1.1
27 September 2009 2009 legislative election 5,681,258 36.6
97 seats
29.1
81 seats
10.4
21 seats
9.8
16 seats
7.9
15 seats
6.2
0 seats
7.5

Leadership polls

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Preferred prime minister

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Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Sócrates vs Passos Coelho

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Date Polling Firm José
Sócrates
Passos
Coelho
Neither Both No
opinion
Lead
Aximage 31 May–2 Jun 24.3 39.6 25.8 10.3 15.3
Aximage 29 Apr–May 2 36.2 36.8 27.0 0.6
Aximage 28–30 Mar 35.2 36.3 28.5 1.1
Aximage 3–7 Mar 34.5 35.8 29.7 1.3
Aximage 1–3 Feb 34.3 36.9 28.8 2.6
Aximage 3–6 Jan 29.5 38.4 32.1 8.9
2011
Aximage 5–7 Dec 31.6 38.6 29.8 7.0
Aximage 26–29 Oct 28.4 38.8 27.1 2.3 3.4 10.4
Aximage 1–4 Oct 33.7 37.2 22.0 2.1 5.0 3.5
Aximage 6–9 Sep 31.8 38.5 21.8 1.8 6.1 6.7
Aximage 1–4 Jul 29.8 45.0 16.7 2.4 6.1 15.2
Aximage 1–7 Jun 31.4 44.6 16.1 1.5 6.4 13.2
Aximage 4–7 May 41.6 41.3 12.1 0.0 4.9 0.3
Aximage 5–8 Apr 35.9 34.7 13.7 1.2 14.5 1.2
2010

References

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