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Risk-Confidence Gap refers to the concept that as the volume, variety, and velocity of data increases exponentially, the relative capacity of people and organizations to analyze and make sense of it diminishes. This decreasing ability to analyze data in a timely fashion creates a gap between growing risk and declining confidence in decisions based on the available analysis and is thus termed the “Risk-Confidence Gap.”[1]
Examples of Risk-Confidence Gap
Examples of the Risk-Confidence Gap appear in cybersecurity, financial compliance, national security, and law enforcement.
Those working in cybersecurity face an overwhelming amount of potential cybersecurity threat intelligence, such as malware signatures, threat actor profiles, the profile of recent cyberattack tactics, vulnerabilities exploited, and attacker IP addresses. The Risk-Confidence Gap occurs because gathering and analyzing this overwhelming flood of information frequently exceeds the capacity of cybersecurity analysts and systems. They need the most relevant information to understand the intersection of potential attacks and one’s known vulnerabilities, and thus prevent and prepare for potential attacks.[2]
Financial institutions and money processing entities are required to screen customers against sanctions lists or vet politically exposed persons (PEPs) who have higher risk profiles and may be more open to corruption due to their positions of power.[3] The number of media sources and enormous amounts of publicly available information to search through about an entity creates a Risk-Confidence Gap. Missed information creates the risk that a financial institution may inadvertently conduct business with sanctioned or criminal individuals and organizations and thus be subject to huge regulatory penalties.[4]
In the realm of national security and law enforcement, open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyzes “the terrorist use of social media platforms in order to enhance identification and detection efforts in national counter-terrorism investigations.”[5] It is well known that U.S. law enforcement and federal intelligence agencies monitor social media to conduct investigations, identify threats, and screen travelers and immigrants.[6] In a drug trafficking case in Belgium, where police cracked an encrypted chat app used by criminals, the police declared that the 1 billion messages discovered would take 40 officers 685 years to read and analyze. In fact, because of the overwhelming amount of data, the Belgian police had a hard time deciding which leads to follow up first.[7]
The Risk-Confidence Gap might have very serious consequences in the case of detecting and preventing terrorism, mass shootings, or cyberattacks. The signals of a coming attack are often in publicly available information such as social media. A 2022 study concluded that about 48% of shooters leaked their plans in advance to someone else.[8] Another study from 2023 that examined mass shooters between 1999-2021, found that 41% were active on social media in the days, weeks, months, or years leading up to their attacks,[9] but with the explosive growth of social media,[10] there is a legitimate Risk-Confidence Gap between being able to use all the information to find the few important posts from the billions online to being able to take action to avert an attack.
The end result is organizations that are unable to analyze available data in a timely manner cannot make good decisions and protect themselves against what is coming. Key to closing the Risk-Confidence Gap is making use of advanced technologies to enhance data retrieval and analysis methods and give people the confidence to make good decisions.
References edit
- ^ “Babel Street Launches AI Modules Powered by Rosette Text Analytics for Intuitive, Data-Driven Decisions” August 24, 2023 https://www.prweb.com/releases/babel-street-launches-ai-modules-powered-by-rosette-text-analytics-for-intuitive-data-driven-decisions-301909035.html, Snell, Jen “What is the Risk-Confidence Gap?”, https://www.babelstreet.com/blog/what-is-the-risk-confidence-gap
- ^ Center for Internet Security “What is Cyber Threat Intelligence?” https://www.cisecurity.org/insights/blog/what-is-cyber-threat-intelligence
- ^ FinCEN guidance “Frequently Asked Questions Regarding Customer Due Diligence (CDD) Requirements for Covered Financial Institutions,” August 3, 2020. https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/FinCEN_Guidance_CDD_508_FINAL.pdf
- ^ ComplyAdvantage “Reducing Risk in Adverse Media with Machine Learning,” September 19, 2023 https://complyadvantage.com/insights/reducing-risk-in-adverse-media-with-machine-learning/#:~:text=Common%20Adverse%20Media%20Challenges&text=One%20major%20issue%20is%20the,to%20find%20the%20relevant%20information.
- ^ Interpol “Analysing Social Media” https://www.interpol.int/en/Crimes/Terrorism/Analysing-social-media
- ^ Levinson-Waldman, Rachel et al, “Social Media Surveillance by the U.S. Government” The Brennan Center, January 7, 2022 https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/social-media-surveillance-us-government
- ^ Lyons, Helen, “‘Reading all Sky ECC messages would take us 685 years,’ police say,” Brussel Times, March 12, 2021 https://www.brusselstimes.com/159580/reading-all-sky-ecc-encrypted-messages-would-take-us-685-years-belgium-police-say-belgian-criminal-underworld-federal-prosecutor-money-laundering-corruption-arms-trafficking-violent-crime-cocaine-fire
- ^ National Institute of Justice “Public Mass Shootings: Database Amasses Details of a Half Century of U.S. Mass Shootings with Firearms, Generating Psychosocial Histories” February 3, 2022, https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/public-mass-shootings-database-amasses-details-half-century-us-mass-shootings
- ^ Peterson, Jillian et al, “How Mass Public Shooters Use Social Media: Exploring Themes and Future Directions,” February 26, 2023 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20563051231155101
- ^ Statista ”Number of social media users worldwide from 2017 to 2027” https://www.statista.com/statistics/278414/number-of-worldwide-social-network-users/#:~:text=Number%20of%20global%20social%20network%20users%202017%2D2027&text=In%202022%2C%20over%204.59%20billion,almost%20six%20billion%20in%202027.