Wikipedia

Conspiracy theories about the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

The previously quiet 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began experiencing a surge in activity in late September. With Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, two extremely damaging and deadly major hurricanes, impacting the United States in just two weeks, it led to heightened attention by the media and on social media.

Devastation in Wellington, Florida, caused by Hurricane Milton

During this late-season surge, conspiracy theories spread about the nature of Helene and Milton, and about the post-storm disaster recovery. Numerous falsehoods and conspiracies were spread by several American far-right influencers, Republican politicians, and Donald Trump, the 2024 Republican presidential candidate. These widespread rumors caused significant difficulties for first responders and official recovery workers, hampering rescue efforts, and some officials were subject to threats of violence. The White House and Federal Emergency Management Agency issued statements in response to these claims.

Background

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Main article: 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

In early 2024, hurricane forecasters predicted a highly-active season, citing the La Niña effect and warm sea surface temperatures.[1] After the exceptionally early Hurricane Beryl, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maintained this prediction through August.[2] In what was expected to be the peak season, however, there were few storms[3] and some called the season a "bust".[4]

In late September and early October, Hurricanes Helene and Milton surprised onlookers, breaking the lull and causing massive devastation.[5] Helene caused massive damage across the Southeastern United States, and in particular caused exceptional flooding in inland North Carolina, far from the coast.[6] Milton broke records in rapid intensification, strengthening to a Category 5 and increasing its wind speeds by 90 mph in 24 hours.[7] Measured by accumulated cyclone energy through early October, the season is currently the eighth-most-active on record.[8]

Claims

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Weather modification

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See also: High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program § Conspiracy theories

Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia's 14th congressional district claimed in a tweet on October 3 that it is possible to use weather modification to influence hurricanes.[9] Three days later, Greene made another post claiming weather modification was possible and in use.[10] Prominent right-wing conspiracy theorist Alex Jones made claims that Hurricanes Milton and Helene were "weather weapons" created by the U.S. government.[11] Meteorologists Matthew Cappucci, Katie Nickolaou, and James Spann received threats, accusing them of concealing that the U.S. government was controlling the hurricane.[12]

Marjorie Taylor Greene
@mtgreenee
  

Yes they can control the weather.

It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done.

October 3, 2024[13]

Claims that the HAARP research project has the ability to modify the weather have been popular for years.[14] Despite claims that its transmissions were involved in Hurricane Helene,[15] the project is extremely low-powered and does not have the ability to control weather.[16] Likewise, the weather radar system known as NEXRAD was the subject of claims that it could be used to control weather patterns.[17] As a radar system it emits only a small amount of energy and is not capable of influencing weather.[18]

Proposals for weather modification to redirect hurricane paths have been found to induce feelings of anger in Florida residents.[19] Regardless, the U.S. government retired hurricane seeding experiments in 1963 after attempts proved futile[20] and meteorologists no longer consider it feasible.[21]

Land acquisition

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One common belief is that the U.S. government is using the disaster to seize land, in particular destroyed homes.[22] Following Hurricane Helene, rumors spread that Chimney Rock, North Carolina, had been intentionally abandoned so that the federal government could mine lithium after evacuating the residents[23] or even leaving the residents for dead.[24] County officials denied any plans of the sort.[25] Similar rumors spread in the days leading to Hurricane Milton's landfall in Florida, leading to the governor's office to rebut claims of FEMA seizing Floridians' homes.[26]

AI-generated images

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AI-generated image of Donald Trump assisting in disaster relief, shared online in September 2024

Social media featured many viral AI-generated images supposedly depicting the hurricane and its response. One image of a flooded town was claimed to be Gatlinburg, Tennessee, prompting a response from town officials that the town was not flooded and safe to visit.[27]

After Helene, an AI-generated image of a girl holding a puppy while sitting in a boat floating on flooded waters circulated among Republicans, who used it as evidence of failures of the Biden administration to respond to the disaster.[28] Some sources did not retract the image after learning it was fake.[29] Another image depicted Donald Trump wading through floodwaters to rescue people, despite Trump not performing any hands-on relief work.[30] Following Milton's track across Florida, AI-generated images depicting flooding in Walt Disney World posted to Telegram by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti were quickly republished by numerous Russian news networks[31] and spread widely online on the English-speaking Internet.[32] AI-generated and CG images supposedly documenting the October 9 tornado outbreak were widely shared, including by British tabloid The Mirror.[33] Chinese influence operations have also spread AI-generated misinformation related to said hurricanes.[34]

Expenditure of relief funds on migrants

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On October 3, Donald Trump accused the Biden administration of spending FEMA disaster relief funds on housing for "illegal immigrants", and claimed that the agency had run out of funding for disaster recovery efforts.[35] Ohio Representative Jim Jordan similarly claimed that disaster funds had gone to house migrants.[36] Elon Musk amplified the claim, indicating that he viewed FEMA's actions as "treason" and endorsing a call for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to be arrested.[37] FEMA has not redirected any disaster relief funding to migrant resettlement,[38] and FEMA has continued to spend money towards relief efforts.[39]

FEMA blocking aid

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Rumors began circulating that FEMA officials were confiscating aid and intentionally restricting volunteer efforts in Republican areas of North Carolina. Some have claimed that FEMA staff have been arrested or executed for hindering relief work in pursuit of other conspiratorial goals.[40] Elon Musk faced criticism for amplifying false claims that FEMA had been expropriating aid shipments,[41] blocking private citizens from rendering aid,[42] and that sheriffs in North Carolina had threatened to arrest FEMA staff.[43] Real Raw News falsely claimed that the United States Marine Corps were using snipers to kill FEMA employees.[44] DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, FEMA director of public affairs Jaclyn Rothenberg, and Asheville mayor Esther Manheimer received antisemitic attacks online[45] and as a result have feared for their safety in response work.[46] FEMA has received credible threats directed at its staff, including calls for militias to shoot emergency responders.[47] A report of militias hunting FEMA staff led aid workers to pause or relocate their work in Rutherford County, North Carolina; one armed man acting alone was arrested on October 14, 2024.[48]

Risk of dam collapse in Cuba

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The Cuban Army reported that false rumors were spreading online surrounding the collapse of the Pozo Azul Dam in San Antonio del Sur after Hurricane Oscar. The dam never reached full capacity nor sustained any damage from the hurricane.[49]

Effects

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Asheville Mayor Esther Manheimer, FEMA director Deanne Criswell, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, and President Joe Biden speak during an aerial tour to survey damage caused by Hurricane Helene aboard Marine One on October 2, 2024

Multiple commentators alleged that Republican politicians' promotion of these claims was intended to gain an advantage in the 2024 United States presidential election. Jim Puzzanghera in The Boston Globe claimed that the GOP was "seeking an edge" in hurricane-battered Georgia because it is a swing state, using claims about the Biden administration's response efforts to reduce support for the Kamala Harris's campaign.[50] The Guardian misinformation reporter Rachel Leingang noted that misinformation was likely so prevalent due to the proximity to the election, quoting a fellow at the American Immigration Council who claimed that "there's no question that this level of falsehoods would not be spread were there not an election a month away."[51]

Local officials and relief workers have had to expend resources combatting misinformation that might otherwise be used toward first response work.[52] FEMA and White House officials have expressed concern that survivors and others impacted by the storms may be less likely to seek relief from the agency due to the misinformation.[53] In response, the White House directed federal agencies to engage with the public on social media with evidence the government was on the ground helping relief efforts.[54] FEMA added a page on its website to rebut viral falsehoods.[55] Congressman Chuck Edwards, whose district was heavily affected by Hurricane Helene, released a statement to his constituents rebutting many false claims.[56] Particular criticism was given to Twitter under Elon Musk, where recent changes to content moderation had made it more difficult to discern reliable sources.[57]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Rajalakshmi 2024: "This year's hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 is going to be even worse, according to a University of Arizona hurricane prediction model."
  2. ^ NOAA 2024: "'The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,' said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. "NOAA's update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.'"
  3. ^ Koren 2024 "Then, what should have been the busiest part of the season was instead eerily quiet. It was 'fairly surprising,' Emily Bercos-Hickey, a research scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, told me."
  4. ^ Lowry 2024: "Back around the traditional ramp up to the hurricane season peak in early September, lots was written about the hurricane season 'bust' – alluding to what forecasters predicted to be one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record.
  5. ^ Koren 2024: "Then, beginning late last month, came a tremendous burst of activity: Hurricane Helene, which broke storm-surge records in Florida and dropped devastating rains far inland; a flurry of named storms that spun up in quick succession; and now Milton."
  6. ^ Sommer 2024: "Hurricane Helene's destructive path tore across several states, causing the ocean surge on the Florida coast and cutting off power supplies in Georgia. But the heaviest rainfall, and some of the worst damage, was hundreds of miles from where the storm made landfall."
  7. ^ Harvey 2024: "The storm underwent an extremely rapid intensification as it churned across the Gulf, gaining more than 90 mph in wind speeds over the course of just 24 hours. It shattered the scientific definition of rapid intensification, which the National Weather Service describes as an increase of 35 mph in a single day."
  8. ^ Lowry 2024: "The past 3 weeks of gangbusters activity, however, have catapulted the 2024 hurricane season not only to above average levels, but to the 8th busiest season on record through today, slingshotting past last season's levels and even 2020, which ended as one of the most active hurricane seasons on record."
  9. ^ Owen 2024: "Greene, after spending years trying to distance herself from her infamous 2018 remarks on social media blaming wildfires on 'Jewish Space Lasers,' is now using this climate emergency to double down on weather conspiracies and lasers. While Greene stopped short of blaming Jews for the hurricanes, she has promoted conspiracies that have a history of being steeped in antisemitism. 'Yes they can control the weather,' Greene wrote on X on October 3 about the hurricanes, without specifying who 'they' are. 'It's ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can't be done.'"
  10. ^ Dunbar 2024: "She appeared to double down on these comments with a post on Saturday, sharing a clip from a 2013 CBS News broadcast about experimental efforts to induce rain and lightning using lasers. 'CBS, nine years ago, talked about lasers controlling the weather,' Greene wrote, apparently mistaking the year of the broadcast."
  11. ^ Warzel 2024: "The posts would be laughable if they weren't taken by many people as gospel. Among them: Infowars' Alex Jones, who claimed that Hurricanes Milton and Helene were 'weather weapons' unleashed on the East Coast by the U.S. government"
  12. ^
    • Cappucci: Selig 2024: "Matthew Cappucci, a D.C.-based meteorologist for MyRadar and The Washington Post, said he received hundreds of comments and dozens of messages during the storms about how the government had modified the weather and that accused him of helping cover it up."
    • Nickolau: Selig 2024: "And a meteorologist for a television station in Lansing, Mich., said she had received death threats. 'Murdering meteorologists won’t stop hurricanes,' wrote the forecaster in Michigan, Katie Nickolaou, in a social media post."
    • Spann: Dupré 2024: "'I've been doing this for 46 years and it's never been like this,' Alabama meteorologist James Spann told the magazine, adding that he's been 'inundated' with eerie messages telling him to 'stop lying about the government controlling the weather or else.'"
  13. ^ Greene 2024.
  14. ^
    • Dumé 2021: "HAARP has previously been the subject of conspiracy theories"
    • Selig 2024: "Dr. [Marshall] Shepherd said that such false claims about outside forces controlling the weather have always existed, recalling how similar assertions emerged during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. 'The difference is that they were always out there in 'fringe-world,' but now I’ve seen them become almost mainstream,' he said."
  15. ^ Burns 2024: "Meanwhile, other users claimed that 'HAARP transmissions' were similarly involved."
  16. ^ Fournier 2017: "HAARP cannot control the weather, contrary to one conspiracy theory."
  17. ^ Burns 2024: "For example, on 30 September 2024 a video was shared on Facebook, gathering over 27,000 interactions after claiming that 'Hurricane Helene's path and behavior could have been manipulated by NEXRAD frequency transmissions'."
  18. ^ Burns 2024: "The amount of energy sent out by NEXRAD radars is vanishingly small compared to the amount of energy expended in a hurricane. The hurricane consists solely of air and water and the beam either just passes through or is partially reflected back by small water drops. It doesn’t have enough energy to move even those tiny drops."
  19. ^ Klima et al. 2012, p. 1203: "Third, more anger was evoked when a hurricane was described as having changed from the initially forecasted path or strength after an attempted modification"
  20. ^ Willoughby et al. 1985, p. 513: "STORMFURY itself, however, had two fatal flaws: it was neither microphysically nor statistically feasible. Observational evidence indicates that seeding in hurricanes would be ineffective because they contain too little supercooled water and too much natural ice. Moreover, the expected results of seeding are often indistinguishable from naturally occurring intensity changes."
  21. ^ American Meteorological Society 1998, p. 2771: "No sound physical hypotheses exist for the modification of hurricanes, tornadoes, or damaging winds in general, and no related scientific experimentation has been conducted in the past 20 years."
  22. ^ Kayyem 2024b: "One very harmful lie that is being spread is that the government — this is the opportunity for the government to take your house."
  23. ^ Brady & Baker 2024: "Perhaps no area in North Carolina has been the subject of more blatant false online rumors than Chimney Rock — including the persistent untrue claim that FEMA abandoned the village so that the Biden administration can mine lithium there."
  24. ^ Kelly 2024: "Others … suggest officials are deliberately abandoning bodies in the cleanup."
  25. ^ Ferris 2024: "Rutherford County Emergency Management said claims of a government seizure of Chimney Rock 'are entirely false,' adding that no 'special meeting' was held to discuss seizing the town. Rutherford County Emergency Management clarified that North Carolina lawmakers met with local officials to request federal and state support."
  26. ^ Jingnan 2024: "As Hurricane Milton approaches Florida, Christina Pushaw, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' press secretary, took to social media to rebuke one viral falsehood that urged people not to evacuate so as to protect their property from FEMA: 'Spreading LIES like this could have serious consequences.' She urged people to follow directions to evacuate."
  27. ^ Kiehl 2024: "The reality is that the City of Gatlinburg is inviting tourists back to the area. "We are welcoming anyone who can safely travel here," the Gatlinburg Convention and Visitors Bureau said on X."
  28. ^ Kayyem 2024a: "To illustrate claims that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris had abandoned Helene's victims, right-wing influencers shared an AI-generated image of a weeping child holding a wet puppy. Another fake viral image showed Donald Trump wading through floodwaters."
  29. ^ Warzel 2024: "Similarly, those sharing the lies are happy to admit that they do not care whether what they're pushing is real or not. Such was the case last week, when Republican politicians shared an AI-generated viral image of a little girl holding a puppy while supposedly fleeing Helene. Though the image was clearly fake and quickly debunked, some politicians remained defiant. 'Y'all, I don’t know where this photo came from and honestly, it doesn't matter,' Amy Kremer, who represents Georgia on the Republican National Committee, wrote after sharing the fake image. “I’m leaving it because it is emblematic of the trauma and pain people are living through right now.'"
  30. ^ Hudnall 2024: "There are no credible reports of the former president wading through flood waters while visiting Georgia. Pictures captured during his trip show him wearing a black suit with a red tie, not the blue long-sleeve shirt shown in the viral image."
  31. ^ VOA News 2024: "Numerous Russian news outlets republished the images with catchy headlines, with the topic trending on Yandex Dzen, the Russia's [sic] version of Google News, at the time of this writing. … The images are fake, likely AI generated, as an inspection of their properties reveals an apparent digital alteration of basic elements, including false autofocus, false background and other indicators."
  32. ^ Makuch 2024: "'Hurricane Milton has flooded Disney World in Orlando,' wrote one known vector of disinformation on X, with the photos, which X users immediately noted was probably created using an automated AI image creator. The post has already been viewed over 300,000 times."
  33. ^ McCarthy 2024: "The Mirror, a British tabloid, also shared several screenshots from the montage in an article. Hurricane Milton did churn up a spate of deadly tornadoes as it ripped across Florida on October 9 as a powerful Category 3 storm, leaving at least ten people dead and millions without power as it barrelled through communities still recovering from Hurricane Helene two weeks earlier. But each of the visuals in the viral compilation predates the storm – and one appears to be the product of computer-generated imagery."
  34. ^ Shalal 2024.
  35. ^ Rodriguez & McDaniel 2024: "'Kamala has spent all her FEMA money, billions of dollars, on housing for illegal migrants,' Trump said at a rally Thursday. Harris does not disburse FEMA funding as vice president. The claim about using disaster relief funding to house immigrants is false, a Washington Post fact check found."
  36. ^ Strickler, Alexander & Guilfoil 2024: "Some, like Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, falsely claimed on X that FEMA had used disaster funds to house migrants and that the government had 'abandoned' hard hit areas. X owner Elon Musk, among Trump's most vocal backers, reposted Jordan's false claim and a variety of others about FEMA."
  37. ^ Joselow et al. 2024: "He labeled FEMA's actions 'treason' and sent a reply indicating agreement with a post from another user who said Harris and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas 'should be jailed for life for spending FEMA money on illegal aliens and not Americans.'"
  38. ^ Hennessy-Fiske et al. 2024: "During a rally Thursday in Saginaw, Mich., former president Donald Trump suggested without evidence that FEMA had used some disaster relief money to help immigrants who are in the country illegally to resettle in the United States. There is no evidence that FEMA has diverted any disaster relief funding for this purpose."
  39. ^
    • Joselow et al. 2024: "FEMA also said in a news release Saturday that federal aid provided had topped $110 million so far."
    • Criswell 2024: "We absolutely have the funding that we need to support the ongoing response to Helene and the response that we're preparing for Hurricane Milton. There has been no money diverted from the disaster relief fund to go support any other requirements across the federal government."
  40. ^
    • Byik 2024: "Anjanette Grube, a spokesperson for the North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation, likewise said the bureau is 'not aware of any such warnings' and is working closely with FEMA."
    • Pascone 2024: "Check Your Fact was unable to find any official government statement that threatened any federal employees with arrest at all."
  41. ^ Warzel 2024: "Elon Musk, who owns X, claimed—without evidence—that FEMA was 'actively blocking shipments and seizing goods and services locally and locking them away to state they are their own. It's very real and scary how much they have taken control to stop people helping.'"
  42. ^ Brady & Baker 2024: "Musk fed into a common complaint online that governments are preventing private citizens from offering help to people in need. Musk wrote that his 'blood is boiling' after engineers from his company SpaceX tried to offer help via helicopter but '@FEMA wouldn't let them land to deliver critical supplies.'"
  43. ^ Aton & Waldman 2024: "On his social network, X, Musk also amplified rumors that authorities in North Carolina had 'taken control to stop people helping' stricken residents and accusations that sheriffs were threatening to arrest FEMA staff 'if they hinder rescue and aid work.'"
  44. ^ Thalen 2024: "'We have spoken to a Marine sniper who reportedly now has 5 confirmed FEMA kills in North Carolina,' the account alleged. 'He has told us 'it's the fight of our lives.''"
  45. ^ Medina 2024: "The antisemitic attacks have been lobbed mainly at the mayor of Asheville, Esther Manheimer, as well as at the secretary for the Department of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency's director of public affairs, Jaclyn Rothenberg."
  46. ^ Oremus & Joselow 2024: "Manheimer, who surveyed the damage from Helene during a flight on Marine One with Biden last week, said she worries about her safety and that of other Jewish officials in the hard-hit region."
  47. ^
    • Institute for Strategic Dialogue 2024: "Falsehoods around hurricane response have spawned credible threats and incitement to violence directed at the federal government – this includes calls to send militias to face down FEMA for the perceived denial of aid, or to shoot and/or harm FEMA officials and the agency’s emergency responders."
    • Selig 2024: "Calls were made for residents to form militias to defend against those workers, who also faced antisemitic and misogynistic threats."
  48. ^ Sacks & Lamothe 2024: "On Monday, the Rutherford County Sheriff's Office said in a statement that it had arrested [a man] on charges of making threats against Federal Emergency Management Agency employees."
  49. ^ Aguilar 2024.
  50. ^ Puzzanghera 2024: "Republicans have tried to shift the focus in Georgia to the federal government's hurricane response, which they claim has been grossly inadequate."
  51. ^ Leingang 2024.
  52. ^ Godfrey 2024: "The practical effect of these falsehoods is that local officials have to spend precious time and energy combatting misinformation, rather than recovery efforts."
  53. ^ Aton & Waldman 2024: "'The misinformation is extremely damaging to the response efforts from Helene and from any disaster,' [Keith Turi, FEMA's acting associate administrator for response and recovery] said. 'It is reducing the likelihood that survivors will come to FEMA in a trusting way to register for assistance.'" (for the official statement, see LaBolt 2024: "In fact, disinformation after a hurricane or other natural disaster can discourage people from seeking critical assistance when they need it most.")
  54. ^ Alvarez et al. 2024: "Senior US officials have also instructed public affairs teams at federal agencies to ramp up social media posts from government accounts with photos that illustrate how federal workers are clearing debris and dispensing aid, the first US official familiar with the effort said."
  55. ^ Raby & Angueira 2024: "FEMA has dedicated part of its website to providing accurate answers to questions and addressing rumors on its response to Helene." (see FEMA 2024)
  56. ^ Doty 2024: "Edwards, whose district encompasses much of the western counties, released a statement on Oct. 8, 2024, saying there's been an uptick in 'untrustworthy sources trying to spark chaos' with hoaxes." (for the official statement, see Edwards 2024)
  57. ^ Kayyem 2024a: "But under its current owner, Elon Musk, the platform, renamed X, has changed its algorithms, account-verification system, and content-moderation approach in ways that make the platform less reliable in a crisis."

Bibliography

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Academic works

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  • "Policy statement". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 79 (12): 2771–2772. 1998. Bibcode:1998BAMS...79.2771.. doi:10.1175/1520-0477-79.12.2771.
  • Klima, Kelly; de Bruin, Wändi Bruine; Morgan, M. Granger; Grossmann, Iris (2012). "Public perceptions of hurricane modification". Risk Analysis. 32 (7): 1194–1206. Bibcode:2012RiskA..32.1194K. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01717.x. PMID 22050325.
  • Willoughby, H. E.; Jorgensen, D. P.; Black, R. A.; Rosenthal, S. L. (1985). "Project STORMFURY: A scientific chronicle 1962–1983". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 66 (5): 505–514. Bibcode:1985BAMS...66..505W. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1985)066<0505:PSASC>2.0.CO;2.

Newspapers

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Web sources

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Primary sources

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