The 2024 United States presidential election in Washington is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Washington voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Washington has 12 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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Although Washington was a Republican-leaning swing state until the 1980s, Democrats have won Washington in every presidential election starting in 1988 and have consistently done so by double digits since 2008. Washington is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and is predicted to go comfortably to the Democratic party in 2024.
Primary election
editRepublican primary
editThe Washington Republican primary is scheduled to be held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi, and Missouri.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 601,070 | 76.43% | 43 | 0 | 43 |
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 151,485 | 19.26% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 17,870 | 2.27% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 8,702 | 1.11% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 7,318 | 0.93% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total: | 786,445 | 100.00% | 43 | 0 | 43 |
Democratic primary
editThe Washington Democratic primary took place on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Democrats Abroad, Northern Marianas, Mississippi, and Georgia.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 763,739 | 83.5% | 90 | ||
Uncommitted delegates | 89,764 | 9.8% | 2 | ||
Marianne Williamson | 25,308 | 2.8% | 0 | ||
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 25,190 | 2.8% | 0 | ||
Write-in votes | 10,966 | 1.2% | 0 | ||
Total: | 914,967 | 100.0% | 92 | 19 | 111 |
General election
editPredictions
editSource | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[4] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[5] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[8] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[9] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[10] | Likely D | July 9, 2024 |
538[11] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[12] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[13][b] | July 10–13, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[14][A] | July 24–25, 2024 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 38% | 6% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[13][c] | July 10–13, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 36% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[15][A] | May 15–16, 2024 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 39% | 6% |
The Independent Center[16] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
Echelon Insights[17][B] | March 18–21, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 37% | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[18][A] | February 13–14, 2024 | 797 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[19][A] | November 14–15, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 38% | 10% |
Crosscut/Elway[20] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 29% | 31%[d] |
Public Policy Polling (D)[21][A] | June 7–8, 2023 | 773 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 36% | 11% |
Emerson College[22] | September 30 – October 1, 2022 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[23] | August 15–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 41% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Crosscut/Elway[20] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 25% | 9% | 3% | 26%[e] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cascade PBS/Elway Research[24] | May 13–16, 2024 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 34% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 17% |
The Independent Center[16] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 35% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 4% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[21][A] | June 7–8, 2023 | 773 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ a b c d e f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School
- ^ "Someone else" with 22%; "Undecided" with 8%; "I would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Undecided" with 14%; "Someone else" with 11%; "I would not vote" with 2%
Partisan clients
References
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Washington Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "March 12, 2024 Presidential Primary Results". Washington Secretary of State. March 23, 2024. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ a b "Beneath the surface, blue WA has a massive political fault line". The Seattle Times. July 17, 2024.
- ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (July 26, 2024). "Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a fourteen point lead over Donald Trump among likely Washington Top Two voters".
- ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (May 20, 2024). "Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State remains at sixteen points, with slightly fewer voters undecided".
- ^ a b "The Independent Center" (PDF).
- ^ "Concerned Tax Payers of WA State March 2024 WA State Survey Deck.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (February 17, 2024). "Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State rebounds to sixteen points".
- ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Joe Biden has a fourteen point, eleven month out lead over Donald Trump in Washington".
- ^ a b Crosscut/Elway
- ^ a b Villeneuve, Andrew (June 12, 2023). "Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Washington by seventeen points, Ron DeSantis by twelve".
- ^ "Emerson College" (PDF).[permanent dead link]
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
- ^ Blankinship, Donna Gordon. "Poll: Almost half of WA voters are undecided on governor's race | Cascade PBS News". crosscut.com.