The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maine voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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Maine is a sparsely populated rural state in Northern New England. Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes are expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts are expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates with ME-1 being a strongly blue district and ME-2 being a moderately red district, something that has occurred in 2016 and 2020.
Maine at-large could be a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020 Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. Maine is a slightly-to-moderately blue state, and is favored to be held at-large by the Democrats.
This election will coincide with a referendum on the state flag as well as a U.S. Senate election, U.S. House elections for Maine's two congressional districts, and various other state, county and local elections.
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) | Ranking (statewide) | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[2] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | August 27, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[3] | Safe D | Lean R | Likely D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[4] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[5] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[6] | Safe D | Very Likely R | Very Likely D | August 5, 2024 |
| CNN[7] | Safe D | Lean R | Safe D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[8] | Safe D | Lean R | Likely D | August 22, 2024 |
| 538[9] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | July 15, 2024 |
| RCP[10] | Likely D | Lean R | Lean D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his campaign and endorses Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| University of New Hampshire[11] | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 58% | 41% | 1% |
| University of New Hampshire[12] | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 45% | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[13] | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 55% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| University of New Hampshire[12] | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5%[b] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research[14] | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 31% | 38% | 30%[c] |
| Digital Research[15] | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 614 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 36% | 35% | 29%[d] |
| Emerson College[16] | September 19–20, 2022 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Research[17] | April 8–30, 2024 | 809 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 40% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 2% |
| 2 | 41% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 6% | – | ||||
| 3 | 41% | 42% | 11% | – | 6% | – | ||||
| 4 | 42% | 43% | 15% | – | – | – | ||||
| 5 | 51% | 49% | – | – | – | – |
Maine's 1st congressional district
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his campaign and endorses Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| University of New Hampshire[18] | August 15–19, 2024 | 476 (LV) | – | 64% | 36% | – |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[19] | August 15–19, 2024 | 476 (LV) | – | 62% | 33% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2%[e] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research[14] | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 31% | 31%[f] |
| Digital Research[15] | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 307 (RV) | – | 43% | 27% | 30% |
Maine's 2nd congressional district
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his campaign and endorses Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| University of New Hampshire[20] | August 15–19, 2024 | 432 (LV) | – | 47% | 52% | 1% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[21] | August 15–19, 2024 | 432 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research[14] | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 25% | 30%[g] |
| Digital Research[15] | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 307 (RV) | – | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editThe Maine Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 60,018 | 82.8% | 24 | ||
| Dean Phillips | 4,623 | 6.4% | |||
| Other candidates | 480 | 0.7% | |||
| Blank ballots | 7,359 | 10.2% | |||
| Total: | 72,480 | 100% | 24 | 8 | 32 |
Republican primary
editThe Maine Republican caucuses was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 79,034 | 71.92% | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| Nikki Haley | 27,912 | 25.40% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 1,191 | 1.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 440 | 0.40% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 299 | 0.27% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blank ballots | 1,022 | 0.93% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 109,898 | 100.00% | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Attempted disqualification of Trump
editOn December 28, 2023, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows removed Donald Trump from the ballot in a similar decision to Anderson v. Griswold in Colorado.[24] On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers".[25] On January 17, a Maine Superior Court judge ordered the Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court.[26] On March 4, 2024, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that Donald Trump is allowed to remain on the Maine ballot.[27]
See also
editNotes
editReferences
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott. "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics.
- ^ "Harris Ahead in Maine, CD2 Too-Close-to-Call". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
- ^ a b "University of New Hampshire".
- ^ "Harris Ahead in Maine, CD2 Too-Close-to-Call". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
- ^ a b c "February 2024 Omnibus Poll". Pan Atlantic Research.
- ^ a b c "Digital Research" (PDF).
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 23, 2022). "Maine Poll: Mills Leads LePage by 12; Majority of Voters Concerned Over Lobsters on Unsustainable Seafood "Red List"". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Digital Research" (PDF).
- ^ "Harris Ahead in Maine, CD2 Too-Close-to-Call". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
- ^ "Harris Ahead in Maine, CD2 Too-Close-to-Call". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
- ^ "Harris Ahead in Maine, CD2 Too-Close-to-Call". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
- ^ "Harris Ahead in Maine, CD2 Too-Close-to-Call". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
- ^ "Tabulations for Elections held in 2024: March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Tabulations for Elections held in 2024: March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ Cohen, Marshall (December 28, 2023). "Maine's top election official removes Trump from 2024 ballot | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ Russell, Jenna (January 2, 2024). "Trump Appeals Decision Barring Him From Maine Primary Ballot". The New York Times. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
- ^ "Maine secretary of state appeals superior court ruling in Trump ballot case". newscentermaine.com. January 19, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
- ^ "Supreme Court rules states can't kick Trump off the ballot". NBC News. March 4, 2024. Archived from the original on March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.