Wikipedia

2024 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) leadership election

The 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be held on September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a 3-year term. The winner of the election will effectively become the Prime Minister of Japan and will lead the party in the next general election (if it takes place after the leadership election) and the next House of Councillors election in July 2025.

2024 Liberal Democratic Party leadership election
← 2021 September 2024
Incumbent President

Fumio Kishida


The leadership election will take place amidst the LDP's controversy over its affiliation with the Unification Church new religious movement following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, an ongoing slush fund scandal involving the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions, and other issues which has led to incumbent president Fumio Kishida becoming the most unpopular prime minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012.[1][2][3]

Background

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Following the resignation of Yoshihude Suga, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021, defeating opponent Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the prime minister on 4 October 2021.[4]

Assassination of Shinzo Abe and ties to the Unification Church

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Main article: Assassination of Shinzo Abe
Further information: Unification Church § In Japan (1970-2023)

Following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, the Unification Church new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating decreased.[5] Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the church from the government in order to regain public trust in his government.[5][6]

Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi.[7]

Slush fund scandal

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Main article: 2023–2024 Japanese slush fund scandal

In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members.[8][9]

Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction.[10][11][12] The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entire Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal.[13][14] Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote.[15]

The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public.[16]

On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later on January 2024, Kōchikai, along with Seiwakai and Shisuikai were dissolved, leaving Motegi's Heisei Kenkyūkai and Tarō Asō's Shikōkai as the only remaining factions left in the party.[17][18]

 
Kishida Cabinet approval ratings since 2021.

Continued unpopularity and calls for resignation

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Kishida's approval ratings continued to fall in the aftermath of the scandal, dropping to 23% on 13 December 2023, marking the lowest rating for any Prime Minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012. By 22 December, his approval ratings had further decreased to 17%. According to a Mainichi Shimbun poll conducted on 18 December 2023, 79% of respondents disapprove of Kishida's performance as Prime Minister, the highest disapproval rate since the end of World War II.[19][20][21]

Concerns emerged about Kishida's ability to lead the party to victory in the upcoming general election, with the scandal leading to speculations that the LDP could potentially lose power in favor of a CDP-led coalition.[22] Ex-Seiwakai member and House of Representatives member Takatori Shuichi said that he doesn’t believe the party can maintain a majority in the National Diet if Kishida is reelected as party president, while Kishida's predecessor Yoshihide Suga on 23 June called for the resignation of Kishida, stating that the party would lose power if "things continue like this."[23][24] Mainichi Shimbun reports that the party could split between pro-Kishida and anti-Kishida forces ahead of the election, with some supporting Suga's criticism of Kishida.[25]

Candidates

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Publicly expressed interest

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Potential candidates

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Based on opinion polls[35][36][37][38][39]


Opinion polls

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Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size[vague] Shigeru Ishiba Shinjirō Koizumi Taro Kono Sanae Takaichi Yoshihide Suga Yōko Kamikawa Fumio Kishida Seiko Noda Toshimitsu Motegi Others NOT/
UD/NA
22–23 Jun 2024 Mainichi 1,057 20 7 5 9 6 8 5 – 1 – 39
22–23 Jun 2024 Kyodo News 1,056 26.2 12.1 7.8 6.8 – 7.8 6.6 2.4 2.4 2.8[a] 25.1
21–23 Jun 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,023 23 15 6 7 8 6 6 3 1 3[b] 22[c]
15–16 Jun 2024 Gunosy for Senkyo Dot Com 1,000 13.6 5.8 6.5 6.7 – 3.3 3.2 – 0.4 6.6[d] 53.9
15–16 Jun 2024 JX for Senkyo Dot Com 984 23.2 9.9 4.8 8.5 – 8.6 7.8 – 0.9 10.4[e] 25.9
15–16 Jun 2024 ANN 1,026 23 18 8 6 5 7 3 3 1 1 25
18–19 May 2024 ANN 1,045 23 18 7 6 5 9 4 1 1 1 25
17–19 May 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,033 22 16 10 7 6 7 4 1 2 4[f] 21[g]
4–5 May 2024 JNN 1,013 24.2 14.1 8.4 6.1 7 7.8 4.5 1.8 0.3 10.5[h] 15.3
13–14 Apr 2024 ANN 1,037 21 18 8 6 5 9 5 2 1 1[i] 24
22–24 Mar 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,020 22 15 8 5 6 9 7 1 1 3[j] 23[k]
16–17 Mar 2024 ANN 1,031 22 18 9 6 5 11 4 2 1 1[l] 21
8–11 Mar 2024 Jiji Press 1,160 18.6 12.1 6.4 4.7 5.7 5.9 2.3 0.9 0.4 2.6[m] 40.4
9–10 Mar 2024 Kyodo News 1,043 22.2 15.4 7.9 8.3 – 10.8 4.9 1.8 0.9 3.3[n] 24.5
24–25 Feb 2024 ANN 1,034 23 17 9 6 4 11 2 3 1 1[o] 34
17–18 Feb 2024 Mainichi 1,024 25 9 7 9 – 12 1 2 1 – 34
16–18 Feb 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,083 21 17 10 6 4 8 4 2 2 2[p] 12
26–28 Jan 2024 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 969 22 15 10 7 7 5 3 2 2 6[q] 17
8–11 Dec 2023 Jiji Press 2,000 15 16 8.8 5 6.2 3.1 1.6 – – 1 40.3
18–19 Nov 2023 Asahi 1,086 15 16 13 8 – – 7 – 1 1[r] 36
11–12 Nov 2023 Sankei Shimbun/FNN N/A 18.2 16 11.9 5.4 4.2 4.3 2.5 – – 5.2 32.3
23–24 Sep 2023 ANN 1,018 18 15 14 5 7 – 5 3 3 3[s] 22
1–8 Jul 2023 Asahi 2,113 15 16 13 5 10 – 10 2 – 3[t] 27
3–4 Dec 2022 JNN 1,227 11 – 19 5 7 – 6 2 2 1[u] 39

Preferred outcome

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Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size Kishida continues as PM Election of new PM Und. / no answer Lead
22–23 Jun 2024 SSRC 2,043 8 63 29 34

Notes

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  1. ^ Another MP: 1.9%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.9%
  2. ^ Katsunobu Katō: 1%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  3. ^ None of these: 11%
  4. ^ Another MP: 6%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.6%
  5. ^ Another MP: 8%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 2.4%
  6. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 2%
  7. ^ None of these: 11%
  8. ^ Another MP: 8.2%; Katsunobu Katō: 1.4%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.9%
  9. ^ Another MP: 1%
  10. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  11. ^ None of these: 15%
  12. ^ Another MP: 1%
  13. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1.1%; Yūko Obuchi: 0.7%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.4%; Kōichi Hagiuda: 0.3%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.1%
  14. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.5%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.3%; Another MP: 2.5%
  15. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 1%
  16. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%
  17. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 3%; Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  18. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  19. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  20. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  21. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%

References

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  2. ^ Reidy, Gearoid (2023-11-07). "Kishida is so unpopular, he can't even give money away". The Japan Times. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
  3. ^ "Kishida among most unpopular Japanese prime ministers ever, new polls show". South China Morning Post. 2023-12-18. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
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  7. ^ Takahara, Kanako; Ninivaggi, Gabriele (2023-09-13). "Kishida replaces top diplomat and boosts women in Cabinet reshuffle". The Japan Times. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
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  24. ^ INC, SANKEI DIGITAL (2024-06-23). "菅義偉前首相が事実上の退陣要求 「このままでは政権交代」 政治不信は岸田首相に一因". 産経新聞：産経ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-06-26.
  25. ^ "強まる首相退陣圧力 「無責任」「せこい連中」党内対立も顕在化". 毎日新聞 (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-06-26.
  26. ^ "岸田首相「自分がやめて問題解決するならいつでもやめる」発言に「何なの？この開き直り」SNSに集まる批判（SmartFLASH）". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-01-03.
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  31. ^ "石破氏「総裁選はフルスペック」 自身の立候補「答えるべきでない」：朝日新聞デジタル". 朝日新聞デジタル (in Japanese). 2024-01-01. Retrieved 2024-01-03.
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  33. ^ INC, SANKEI DIGITAL (2024-06-21). "「期待はありがたい」 上川陽子氏、９月の自民党総裁選出馬に言及せず". 産経新聞：産経ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-06-26.
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  35. ^ "首相適任者、小泉氏16％で最多 石破・河野氏続く、岸田氏7位 時事世論調査（時事通信）". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2023-12-16.
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  38. ^ 悠亮, 大島 (2023-12-11). "【産経・ＦＮＮ合同世論調査】次の首相は小泉氏・石破氏・河野氏の「小石河」が上位独占、上川陽子外相は５位". 産経ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2023-12-16.
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