A Conservative Party leadership election is expected to occur in 2024 to determine the successor to Rishi Sunak following his declared intention to resign after the party's landslide defeat at the recent general election.
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Background
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Following the landslide victory of the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer in the 2024 general election, Rishi Sunak said in his final speech as Prime Minister that he would resign as leader of the party, but not immediately, staying on as leader as preparations are made to elect his successor.[1]
1922 Committee election
editOn 9 July, an election was held for the chair of the 1922 Committee, the backbench committee which governs the rules of any Conservative leadership election. As Graham Brady had stood down as an MP, a vacancy was created.[2] There were two candidates, Bob Blackman and Geoffrey Clifton-Brown.
98 out of 121 MPs turned out (81%). The voting took place until 5:30pm, but emails from various figures mistook it as ending at 6:00pm. As such, it was reported that some senior Conservative figures such as Mark Francois, Jeremy Hunt and Edward Leigh were unable to vote. However, Blackman won an absolute majority of Conservative MPs, so had the other 23 MPs voted it would not have affected the outcome.[2][3] The results of the election were as follows:
| Election of chair of the 1922 committee | ||
| Bob Blackman | 61 / 121 (50%)
| |
| Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 37 / 121 (31%)
| |
Following the vote for the chair, there were subsequent votes to elect the 1922 executive board. One MP with nominations was left off the ballot paper, leading to calls to re-run the vote.[4]
The selected members of the executive are as follows:[5]
Campaign
editIn July, multiple reports suggested that Danny Kruger and John Hayes, prominent MPs on the right of the party, are planning to support the prospective leadership candidate Robert Jenrick. Both Kruger and Hayes previously campaigned for Suella Braverman in her bid to succeed Boris Johnson in 2022.[6][7][8]
The i reported that following Suella Braverman's controversial speeches regarding the pride flag, multiple Conservative MPs believed she had lost her support among her colleagues and could defect to Reform UK.[9]
Schedule
editThe elected chair of the 1922 committee, Bob Blackman, suggested prior to the election that the party must take its time in choosing a leader.[10] Following the election, he said that he expected Sunak would not be the leader by the Conservative Party Conference, which is being held at the end of September.[11]
Candidates
editIn June 2024, during the campaign for the 2024 general election, The Guardian reported that leadership hopefuls were already lobbying for support from MP candidates for any upcoming leadership election.[12] The Times also reported that both Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch registered website domains for a leadership campaign. As Mordaunt lost her seat in the general election her prospective campaign is moot barring either a change in the party's constitution or re-entering the House of Commons through a by-election; both are considered unlikely.[13] The Conservative Party constitution states that the leader of the party must be a Member of Parliament.[14]
Rules for the election will be set by the 1922 Committee; all previous leadership elections have involved a series of votes by Conservative MPs, and some have included a runoff between the top two candidates voted on by party members.
Likely candidates
editThe following displays all the candidates who are sourced as likely to mount a leadership campaign.
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Other potential candidates who are sitting MPs
edit| Candidate | Constituency | Current office | Former offices | Ref. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
.jpg) James Cleverly |
Braintree (2015–present) | Shadow Home Secretary (2024–present) | Home Secretary (2023–2024) Foreign Secretary (2022–2023) Education Secretary (2022) Party Chair (2019–2020) |
[19][15][14] |
 Iain Duncan Smith |
Chingford and Woodford Green (1997–present), formerly Chingford (1992–1997) | N/A | Work and Pensions Secretary (2010–2016) Leader of the Conservative Party (2001–2003) |
[20] |
.jpg) Mel Stride |
Central Devon (2010–present) | Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary (2024–present) | Work and Pensions Secretary (2022–2024) Leader of the House of Commons (2019) |
[21] |
.jpg) Laura Trott |
Sevenoaks (2019–present) | Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2024–present) | Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2023–2024) Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Pensions (2023) |
[22] |
Potential candidates prior to the election
editThe following figures were discussed as potential candidates in a leadership election, but lost their seats in the 2024 general election.
- Steve Baker, Minister of State for Northern Ireland (2022–2024), MP for Wycombe (2010–2024)[23]
- Penny Mordaunt, Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons (2022–2024), MP for Portsmouth North (2010–2024)[13]
- Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Defence (2023–2024), MP for Welwyn Hatfield (2005–2024)[24]
Declined
editThe following Conservative Party politicians were suggested by commentators as potential candidates for the leadership but declined to stand:
- Jeremy Hunt, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer (2024–present), Chancellor of the Exchequer (2022–2024), Foreign Secretary (2018–2019), MP for Godalming and Ash (2024–present, formerly South West Surrey, 2005–2024)[17][25]
Opinion polling
editConservative party members
edit- Multi-candidate polling
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Kemi Badenoch |
Jeremy Hunt |
Suella Braverman |
Tom Tugendhat | Robert Jenrick | James Cleverly | Priti Patel | Victoria Atkins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | YouGov[a] | QMUL and Sussex University | 725 | 31% | 12% | 16% | 15% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 2% |
- ^ 'Don't know' and 'None' removed
- Head-to-head
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Kemi Badenoch |
Suella Braverman |
Tom Tugendhat | Robert Jenrick | Priti Patel | James Cleverly | Don't know | Wouldn't vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23–30 June | JL Partners | GB News | 502 | 31% | 35% | — | — | — | — | 14% | 20% |
| 30% | — | 30% | — | — | — | 20% | 20% | ||||
| 34% | — | — | 24% | — | — | 20% | 22% | ||||
| — | 37% | 31% | — | — | — | 15% | 17% | ||||
| — | 39% | — | — | — | 34% | 12% | 15% | ||||
| — | — | 31% | 25% | — | — | 25% | 19% | ||||
| — | — | — | 29% | 35% | — | 16% | 20% |
2019 Conservative voters
edit- Multi-candidate polling
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Penny Mordaunt |
Jeremy Hunt |
Suella Braverman |
Jacob Rees-Mogg |
Kemi Badenoch |
Grant Shapps |
Others | None | Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13–20 June 2024 | Deltapoll | Helm Partners | 1,511 | 25% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | — | 19% | 20% |
General public
edit- Multi-candidate polling
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Suella Braverman |
Tom Tugendhat |
Kemi Badenoch |
Priti Patel |
Robert Jenrick |
Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21–25 June 2024 | JL Partners | GB News | 8,030 | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 61% |
References
edit- ^ "'I am sorry' - Sunak's No 10 speech in full". BBC News. 5 July 2024.
- ^ a b "Conservatives choose new 1922 Committee chair in key step towards next leadership battle". Sky News. Retrieved 10 July 2024.
- ^ "Veteran Tory MP Bob Blackman elected chair of 1922 committee". www.ft.com. Retrieved 10 July 2024.
- ^ "He shoots, he scores". POLITICO. 11 July 2024. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ "London Playbook PM: Sliding doors moment". POLITICO. 10 July 2024. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ Mitchell, Archie (8 July 2024). "Suella Braverman's Tory leadership bid 'dead before it starts' as key ally expected to back rival". The Independent.
- ^ Hymas, Charles (7 July 2024). "Suella Braverman's Tory leadership campaign dealt blow as key ally abandons her". The Telegraph.
- ^ Vaughan, Richard (10 July 2024). "Ex-Braverman ally Robert Jenrick's Tory leader hopes rising after her bid implodes". i. Retrieved 10 July 2024.
- ^ Langford, Richard Vaughan, Kitty Donaldson, Eleanor (11 July 2024). "'She's lost all her mates': Braverman could defect to Reform, Tory MPs believe". inews.co.uk. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "Full house for Rishi's return". POLITICO. 9 July 2024. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ Heale, James (11 July 2024). "Sunak apologises to Tory MPs for election mess". The Spectator. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ Stacey, Kiran; Mason, Rowena (14 June 2024). "Tory leadership hopefuls 'already lobbying' to replace Sunak". The Guardian. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ a b Kendix, Max; Scott, Geraldine (30 June 2024). "Leadership campaign websites registered for senior Tories". www.thetimes.com. Retrieved 30 June 2024.
- ^ a b Rayner, Gordon (26 June 2024). "The runners and riders to replace Rishi Sunak". The Telegraph. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ a b "Tory leadership hopefuls jostle to replace Rishi Sunak". Financial Times. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ a b c "Tory rivals battle to set narrative of party's historic defeat". Financial Times. Retrieved 7 July 2024.
- ^ a b c d e Riley-Smith, Ben (5 July 2024). "Tory leadership contenders split over Nigel Farage". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
- ^ Riley-Smith, Ben (18 June 2024). "Tom Tugendhat expected to run for Tory leader after election". The Telegraph. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ Allegretti, Aubrey; Dathan, Matt; Smyth, Chris (27 June 2024). "Who could replace Rishi Sunak? The potential Tory successors". The Times. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ Penna, Dominic (11 July 2024). "Make Duncan Smith interim Tory leader, urges peer". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ Penna, Dominic (18 June 2024). "Mel Stride tipped for Tory leadership by MPs". The Telegraph. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ Penna, Dominic (18 June 2024). "Mel Stride tipped for Tory leadership by MPs". The Telegraph. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ "Unhappy NI minister Steve Baker will bid to replace Rishi Sunak as PM if election is a disaster for Tories". Belfast Telegraph. 27 June 2024. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
- ^ Courea, Eleni; Mason, Rowena (5 July 2024). "Tory leadership contenders prepare for quick contest amid Reform fears". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077.
- ^ Manancourt, Vincent (6 July 2024). "Jeremy Hunt rules himself out of Tory leadership race". Politico. Retrieved 6 July 2024.