The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the U.S. representative from Vermont's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the U.S. Senate, as well as various other state and local elections.
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Balint: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Madden: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democrat Peter Welch was re-elected with 67.3% of the vote in 2020. After eight-term U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy announced he would retire on November 15, some speculated that Welch might decline to seek re-election and instead seek election to the Senate.[1] On November 22, 2021, Welch announced his candidacy for Leahy's seat, creating the first open U.S. House seat in Vermont since Bernie Sanders ran for the U.S. Senate in 2006.[2]
Democratic nominee Becca Balint won the election in a landslide, becoming the first elected female member of the United States Congress in the state's history. Her main opponent in the general election, Liam Madden, won the Republican nomination but identifies as an independent who opposes the two-party system.[3] Madden stated that he would not caucus with House Republicans if elected to Congress; the Vermont Republican Party later disavowed his campaign.[4] Ericka Redic, who lost the Republican primary to Madden, ran in the general election as the nominee of the Libertarian Party.[5]
Vermont was the last remaining state that had never elected a woman to the United States Congress after Mississippi elected its first woman in 2018. With Balint's victory, every U.S. state has now been represented in Congress by a woman at some point.
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Becca Balint, state senator (2015–2023) and Vermont Senate president pro tempore (2021–2023)[6]
Eliminated in primary
edit- Molly Gray, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont (2021–2023)[7]
- Louis Meyers, physician at Rutland Regional Medical Center[8]
Withdrew
edit- Sianay Chase Clifford, former aide to U.S. Representative Ayanna Pressley[9][10]
- Kesha Ram Hinsdale, state senator (2021–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2016 (endorsed Balint; running for re-election)[11]
Declined
edit- T. J. Donovan, Vermont Attorney General (2017–2022)[12]
- Jill Krowinski, Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives (2021–present)[13]
- Deborah Markowitz, former Vermont Secretary of State (1999–2011)[12]
- Tanya Vyhovsky, state representative (2021–present)[a][14][15] (running for state senate)[16]
- Peter Welch, incumbent U.S. Representative (2007–present) (running for U.S. Senate)[2]
Endorsements
edit- U.S. Senators
- Ed Markey, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[17]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present)[18][19]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[20]
- U.S. Representatives
- David Ciciline, U.S. Representative for Rhode Island's 1st congressional district (2011–present)[21]
- Pramila Jayapal, U.S. Representative for Washington's 7th congressional district (2017–present)[19] (previously endorsed Ram)[22]
- Ro Khanna, U.S. Representative for California's 17th congressional district (2017–present)[21]
- Mark Pocan, U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district (2013–present)[21]
- Jamie Raskin, U.S. Representative for Maryland's 8th congressional district (2017–present)[19]
- Mark Takano, U.S. Representative for California's 41st congressional district (2013–present)[21]
- State officials
- Beth Pearce, Vermont State Treasurer (2011–present)[23]
- State legislators
- Philip Baruth, State Senator D/P-Chittenden[24]
- John Campbell, former state senator D-Windsor and former President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate[24]
- Alison H. Clarkson, State Senator D-Windsor[24]
- Peter Conlon, State Representative D-Addison 2 (2017–present)[25][better source needed]
- Sarah Copeland-Hanzas, State Representative, D-Bradford[24]
- Ann Cummings, State Senator D-Washington[24]
- Mitzi Johnson, former Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives
- Jane Kitchel, State Senator D-Caledonia[24]
- Ginny Lyons, State Senator D-Chittenden[24]
- Dick Mazza, State Senator D-Grand Isle and Dean of the Senate[24]
- Andrew Perchlik, State Senator D/P-Washington[24]
- Kesha Ram Hinsdale, State Senator, D-Chittenden[11]
- Laura Sibilia, State Representative I-Windham-Bennington (2015–present)[26]
- Robert Starr, State Senator D-Essex/Orleans[24]
- Mary Sullivan, former state representative from Chittenden 7-1 (1991–2001) and Chittenden 6-5 (2015–2021)[27]
- Jeanette White, State Senator D-Windham[24]
- Individuals
- Bill McKibben, environmental activist and author[28] (previously endorsed Ram)[29]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Teachers Vermont[30]
- Vermont Building Trades Council[31]
- Vermont State Firefighters' Association[23]
- Organizations
- Brand New Congress[32] (previously endorsed Ram)[32]
- Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC[33]
- Equality PAC[34]
- Human Rights Campaign[35]
- League of Conservation Voters[36]
- LGBTQ Victory Fund[34]
- LPAC[34]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America (post-primary)[37]
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee[38]
- Protect Our Future[39]
- Sierra Club[40]
- Organizations
- Executive branch officials
- Madeleine Kunin, Governor of Vermont (1985–1991), U.S. Ambassador to Liechtenstein (1997–1999), U.S. Ambassador to Switzerland (1996–1999), U.S. Deputy Secretary of Education (1993–1996), Lieutenant Governor of Vermont (1979–1983)[41]
- U.S. Senators
- Patrick Leahy, U.S. Senator from Vermont (1975–present)[42]
- State officials
- Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont (1991–2003) and chair of the Democratic National Committee (2005–2009)[43]
- U.S. Representatives
Pramila Jayapal, U.S. Representative for Washington's 7th congressional district (2017–present)[22] (switched endorsement to Balint after Ram withdrew)[19]
- State legislators
- Hal Colston, State Representative from Chittenden 6-7 (2019–present)[29]
- Mari Cordes, State Representative from Addison 4 (2019–present)[29] (Progressive)
- Jim McCullough, State Representative from Chittenden-2 (2003–present)[29]
- Taylor Small, State Representative from Chittenden 6-7 (2021–present)[29] (Progressive)
- State legislators
- Nina Turner, former Ohio State Senator from the 25th district (2008–2014) and national co-chair of the 2020 Bernie Sanders presidential campaign[44]
- Individuals
Bill McKibben, environmental activist and author[29] (switched endorsement to Balint after Ram withdrew)[28]
- Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America District 1[31]
- Vermont AFL–CIO[24]
- Organizations
Brand New Congress[32] (switched endorsement to Balint after Ram withdrew)[32]
Polling
edit- Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Becca Balint |
Sianay Chase Clifford |
Molly Gray |
Louis Meyers |
Kesha Ram |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | July 27 – August 1, 2022 | 383 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 59% | 1% | 27% | 1% | – | – | 12% |
University of New Hampshire | July 21–25, 2022 | 352 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 63% | – | 21% | 2% | – | 0% | 13% |
Sianay Chase Clifford drops out of the race | ||||||||||
Kesha Ram drops out of the race | ||||||||||
University of New Hampshire | April 14–18, 2022 | 278 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 28% | 0% | 21% | – | 19% | 1% | 31% |
VPR/Vermont PBS | January 3–9, 2022 | 418 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 11% | – | 31% | – | 0% | 12% | 47% |
Debate
editNo. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||||
Becca Balint | Sianay Chase Clifford | Molly Gray | Louis Meyers | |||||
1 | Jul. 6, 2022 | WPTZ | Brian Colleran Alice Kang Stewart Ledbetter |
YouTube | P | P | P | P |
Results
edit- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Becca Balint | 61,025 | 60.6% | |
Democratic | Molly Gray | 37,266 | 37.0% | |
Democratic | Louis Meyers | 1,593 | 1.6% | |
Democratic | Sianay Chase Clifford (withdrawn) | 885 | 0.9% | |
Total votes | 100,769 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Liam Madden, former leader of About Face: Veterans Against the War[45][46]
Eliminated in primary
edit- Ericka Redic, businesswoman and community activist[47]
- Anya Tynio, sales representative, nominee for this district in 2018 and candidate in 2020[48][49]
Declined
edit- Felisha Leffler, state representative (2019–present)[12]
- Heidi Scheuermann, state representative (2007–present)[12]
- Phil Scott, Governor of Vermont (2017–present) (running for re-election)[50]
Polling
editPoll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Liam Madden |
Ericka Redic |
Anya Tynio |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | July 21–25, 2022 | 196 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 14% | 15% | 9% | 61% |
Results
editLiam Madden won the primary in a surprise victory, as Redic was considered the frontrunner.[4] The Vermont Republican Party disavowed Madden's campaign following a meeting with him on August 15, less than a week after his victory in the primary, citing his refusal to commit to caucusing with the Republican Party if he won the election.[4] Redic announced that she would continue her campaign into the general election as the candidate of the Libertarian Party of Vermont.[5]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Liam Madden | 10,701 | 41.4% | |
Republican | Ericka Bundy Redic | 8,255 | 31.9% | |
Republican | Anya Tynio | 6,908 | 26.7% | |
Total votes | 25,864 | 100.0% |
Progressive primary
editCandidates
editWithdrew after winning primary
editDeclined
edit- Tanya Vyhovsky, state representative (2021–present)[14][15] (running for state senate)[16]
Results
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive | Barbara Nolfi | 439 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 439 | 100.0 |
Independents and other parties
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Matt Druzba (independent)[46]
- Adam Ortiz[46]
- Ericka Redic (Libertarian), businesswoman and community activist[47][5] (previously Republican)
- Luke Talbot[46]
Withdrawn
editGeneral election
editDebate
editNo. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
Becca Balint | Liam Madden | |||||
1 | Oct. 11, 2022 | Vermont Public | Connor Cyrus | YouTube | P | P |
Predictions
editSource | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[53] | Solid D | October 5, 2021 |
Inside Elections[54] | Solid D | October 11, 2021 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[55] | Safe D | October 5, 2021 |
Politico[56] | Solid D | April 5, 2022 |
RCP[57] | Safe D | June 9, 2022 |
Fox News[58] | Solid D | July 11, 2022 |
DDHQ[59] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
538[60] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
Polling
editPoll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Becca Balint (D) |
Liam Madden (R) |
Ericka Redic (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | October 21–26, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 29% | 5% | 3%[c] | 9% |
University of New Hampshire | September 29 – October 3, 2022 | 765 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 57% | 19% | 9% | 11%[d] | 12% |
- Becca Balint vs. Marcia Horne
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Becca Balint (D) |
Marcia Horne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 25% | 0% | 26% |
- Sianay Chase Clifford vs. Marcia Horne
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Sianay Chase Clifford (D) |
Marcia Horne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 25% | 0% | 33% |
- Molly Gray vs. Marcia Horne
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Molly Gray (D) |
Marcia Horne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 27% | 1% | 23% |
- Kesha Ram vs. Marcia Horne
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kesha Ram (D) |
Marcia Horne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 26% | 0% | 27% |
Results
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Becca Balint | 176,494 | 60.45% | –6.86% | |
Republican | Liam Madden | 78,297 | 26.85% | –0.16% | |
Libertarian | Ericka Redic | 12,590 | 4.31% | N/A | |
Independent | Matt Druzba | 5,737 | 1.97% | N/A | |
Independent | Luke Talbot | 4,428 | 1.52% | N/A | |
Independent | Adam Ortiz | 3,376 | 1.16% | N/A | |
Write-in | 1,004 | 0.34% | +0.19% | ||
Total votes | 291,955 | 100.00% | |||
Democratic hold |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
editNotes
edit- ^ Candidate is a member of the Progressive Party, but ran with the Democratic Party's endorsement under Vermont's electoral fusion system
- ^ a b c d e f g Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Talbot (I), Oritz (I), and Druzba (I) with 1%
- ^ Talbot (I) and "Other" with 1%; Ortiz (I) and Druzba (I) with 0%
References
edit- ^ Allison, Natalie (November 15, 2021). "Leahy, most senior senator, will retire". POLITICO. Retrieved November 16, 2021.
- ^ a b Forgey, Quint (November 22, 2021). "Rep. Peter Welch launches Senate bid for Leahy's seat". Politico. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
- ^ "Madden 'up in the air' about accepting GOP nomination for US House". WCAX-TV. August 9, 2022. Retrieved August 14, 2022.
- ^ a b c Cutler, Calvin (August 15, 2022). "Vermont GOP will not support Liam Madden for US House". WCAX. Retrieved August 17, 2022.
- ^ a b c Weinstein, Ethan (August 11, 2022). "Ericka Redic, runner-up in Republican primary, running for U.S. House as a Libertarian". VTDigger. Retrieved August 17, 2022.
- ^ Duffort, Lola (December 13, 2021). "Becca Balint, leader of the Vermont Senate, joins race for U.S. House". VT Digger. Montpelier, VT.
- ^ "Lt. Gov. Molly Gray announces run for Vermont's sole US House seat". myNBC5.com. December 6, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2021.
- ^ Mann, Rachel (April 26, 2022). "Congressional candidates meet for first forum". WCAX.
- ^ Duffort, Lola (March 15, 2022). "Former congressional aide Sianay Chase Clifford to run for US House". VTDigger. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
- ^ Chien, Lia; Mearhoff, Sarah (July 19, 2022). "Sianay Chase Clifford drops out of US House race". VTDigger. Retrieved July 19, 2022.
- ^ a b Cutler, Calvin (May 27, 2022). "Kesha Ram Hinsdale drops out of US House race, endorses Becca Balint". WCAX. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
- ^ a b c d Dritschilo, Gordon (December 2, 2021). "Some names emerge in congressional race, some don't". The Barre Montpelier Times Argus.
- ^ Johnson, Mark (June 16, 2021). "Lt. Gov. Molly Gray Says She's Too Focused on Her Current Role to Think About Running for Congress". Seven Days.
- ^ a b Grim, Ryan (November 15, 2021). "Bernie Sanders Could Snuff Out a Potential Primary Contest to Replace Patrick Leahy". The Intercept. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
- ^ a b Cutler, Calvin (November 30, 2021). "Will Vermont send a woman to Washington?". WCAX.com.
- ^ a b Higdon, Bridget (May 4, 2022). "Rep. Tanya Vyhovsky announces candidacy for new Chittenden-Central State Senate District". The Essex Reporter.
- ^ Krieg, Gregory (August 10, 2022). "Becca Balint will win the Democratic nomination for Vermont's House seat, CNN projects". CNN. Retrieved August 10, 2022.
- ^ Gans, Jared (July 6, 2022). "Bernie Sanders weighs into Vermont House race". The Hill. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ a b c d Villa Huerta, Lissandra (July 6, 2022). "Senator Bernie Sanders endorses in Vermont's Democratic primary". The Boston Globe. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (July 19, 2022). "Elizabeth Warren, who backed Gray's LG bid in 2020, endorses Balint for Vermont's House seat". VT Digger.
- ^ a b c d Goldstein, Sasha (July 6, 2022). "Bernie Sanders Endorses Balint in Vermont's U.S. House Race". Seven Days. Retrieved July 7, 2022.
- ^ a b Schnell, Mychael (May 11, 2022). "Jayapal endorses six progressive House candidates". Politico. Retrieved May 11, 2022.
- ^ a b c Cutler, Calvin (June 28, 2022). "How endorsements can help set similar candidates apart". WCAX-TV. Montpelier, Vermont. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Mearhoff, Sarah; Robinson, Riley (March 29, 2022). "Final Reading: 'I can't be their babysitter': On the campaign trail". VTDigger.
- ^ "BECCA IS ENDORSED BY MAJOR NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, LOCAL ELECTED OFFICIALS, AND COMMUNITY LEADERS ALL ACROSS VERMONT". Becca Balint for U.S. Congress. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Sibilia, Laura (March 23, 2022). "Letter: Endorsing Becca Balint for Congress". Brattleboro Reformer.
- ^ McCallum, Kevin (December 13, 2021). "Vermont Sen. Becca Balint Announces Run for U.S. House". Seven Days. Retrieved February 27, 2022.
- ^ a b Mearhoff, Sarah (June 2, 2022). "Climate activist Bill McKibben endorses Balint's bid for US House". VTDigger. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f Mearhoff, Sarah (January 13, 2022). "Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale launches campaign for US House". VTDigger. Retrieved February 27, 2022.
- ^ Field, Kathryn (May 23, 2022). "American Federation of Teachers endorses Becca Balint for US House". VTDigger. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ a b Field, Kathryn (May 17, 2022). "Vermont Building Trades Council endorses Becca Balint for US House". VTDigger. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ a b c d "Meet The Candidates". Archived from the original on December 23, 2022. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
- ^ "Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC Endorses Becca Balint in VT-AL". June 22, 2022. Retrieved June 28, 2022.
- ^ a b c "LPAC & Other National LGBTQ Organizations Endorse Becca Balint". LPAC. January 25, 2022. Retrieved February 27, 2022.
- ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 14 Pro-Equality Champions for U.S. House of Representatives". hrc.org. Human Rights Campaign. July 6, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ "Becca Balint Earns LCV Action Fund Endorsement to Continue Legacy of Bold Climate Action in Congress". www.lcv.org. September 15, 2022.
- ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Eight Candidates for Election to the U.S. House". NARAL Pro-Choice America. September 7, 2022. Retrieved December 31, 2022.
- ^ Ackley, Kate; Akin, Stephanie; McIntire, Mary Ellen (June 30, 2022). "At the Races: Roe-d awakening". Roll Call. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ Duffort, Lola (June 27, 2022). "Gray, Balint campaigns tussle over super PACs, though none have entered the race". VTDigger. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ "Sierra Club Endorsements".
- ^ Borghi, Brianna (June 4, 2022). "Madeleine Kunin endorses Molly Gray for Congress". WPTZ. Retrieved June 4, 2022.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (July 28, 2022). "Patrick Leahy votes for Molly Gray, backs her with $5,000 PAC donation". VT Digger. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
- ^ "News roundup: Vt. hospital capacity improving, but blood supply at critical lows". Vermont Public Radio. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 11, 2022.
- ^ Johnson, A. Bryan (February 11, 2022). "Nina Turner Is Still Mad As Hell, and Running for Congress (Again)". The Nation. Retrieved February 11, 2022.
- ^ Mays, Chris (April 11, 2022). "Outspoken war critic, solar specialist runs for Congress". Bennington Banner.
- ^ a b c d e "General Election Candidates". sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
- ^ a b "Ericka Redic launches candidacy for Congress". True North Reports. February 17, 2022.
- ^ "Vermont's 2020 Primary Election Is Like No Other. Here's What You Need To Know". Vermont Public Radio. July 31, 2020. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
- ^ "2022 Legislature Winding Down it's [sic] Work, Candidates for the November Election Making Moves". NFIB. April 18, 2022.
- ^ Duffort, Lola; Mearhoff, Sarah (November 16, 2021). "Who will take Leahy's place in the Senate and why does everyone think it's Welch?". VTDigger. Archived from the original on November 17, 2021.
No one has been explicit yet about their plans for the election in November 2022, save for those ruling out a run. ("No chance!" a spokesperson for Republican Gov. Phil Scott told a reporter on Monday.)
- ^ McCallum, Kevin (June 1, 2022) [May 27, 2022]. "Buckle Up: Vermont's Robust August Primary Contests Take Shape". Seven Days. Burlington. Retrieved June 27, 2022.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1522463". docquery.fec.gov.
- ^ "2022 House Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
- ^ "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 4, 2021.
- ^ "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 5, 2021. Retrieved October 5, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. April 5, 2022.
- ^ "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. July 11, 2022. Retrieved July 11, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ "Election Results". Vermont Secretary of State.
External links
edit- Campaign websites