The 2014 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of New Hampshire, concurrently with the election to New Hampshire's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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Hassan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Havenstein: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic governor Maggie Hassan ran for re-election to a second term in office. She defeated the Republican nominee, businessman Walt Havenstein. As of 2023, this is the last time a Democrat was elected Governor of New Hampshire.
Background
editIncumbent Democratic governor John Lynch decided to retire in 2012, rather than seek re-election to a fifth term in office. The Democratic nominee, former State Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan, defeated the Republican nominee, attorney and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide M. Lamontagne, 55% to 43%.
New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years. On only one occasion since 1924 has a first-term governor of New Hampshire been defeated for re-election to a second term: in 2004, when Lynch beat incumbent Republican governor Craig Benson.[1][2]
Hassan had high approval ratings. An April 2014 WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll found that 57% of registered voters approved of the job she was doing, 58% had a favorable opinion of her, and 70% thought the state was going in the right direction.[3] For these reasons, Hassan was not considered vulnerable going into the election. The Cook Political Report,[4] Daily Kos Elections,[5] Governing[6] and Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] all considered the race "likely Democratic" and RealClearPolitics[8] and The Rothenberg Political Report rated the race "safe Democratic".[9]
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Ian Freeman, radio show host[10]
- Maggie Hassan, incumbent governor[11]
- Clecia Terrio, candidate for the State House in 2012[12]
Hassan won the Democratic Party primary, held on September 9, 2014, with 94.3% of the votes cast.[13]
Republican primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Daniel J. Greene[14]
- Walt Havenstein, businessman[15]
- Andrew Hemingway, businessman, Tea Party activist and candidate for Chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee in 2013[16][17]
- Jonathan Smolin[14]
Havenstein won the Republican Party primary, held on September 9, 2014, with 55.6% of the votes cast.[13]
Declined
edit- William Harrison Binnie, industrialist, investment banker and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[18]
- Jeb Bradley, Majority Leader of the New Hampshire Senate and former U.S. representative[19]
- Brad Cook, attorney[20][21]
- Jeanie Forrester, state senator[18]
- Ted Gatsas, Mayor of Manchester[22]
- Frank Guinta, former U.S. representative (ran for NH-01)[23][24]
- Gary Lambert, former state senator (ran for NH-02)[25]
- George Lambert, state representative[26]
- Ovide Lamontagne, businessman, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for governor in 1996 and 2012[27]
- Chuck Morse, state senator[22]
- Bob Odell, state senator[18]
- John Reagan, state senator[28][29]
- Chuck Rolecek, businessman and candidate for the Executive Council of New Hampshire in 2012[18]
- Andy Sanborn, state senator[30]
- Kevin H. Smith, conservative activist, former state representative and candidate for governor in 2012[1][31]
- John Stephen, former Commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Health & Human Services and nominee for governor in 2010[22]
- Christopher Sununu, Executive Councillor, son of former governor John H. Sununu and brother of former U.S. senator John E. Sununu (ran for re-election)[32]
- John E. Sununu, former U.S. senator[33]
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Binnie |
Ted Gatsas |
Daniel Greene |
Walt Havenstein |
Andrew Hemingway |
George Lambert |
Chuck Morse |
Jonathan Smolin |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | June 14–18, 2014 | 419 | ±4.8% | — | — | 3.82% | 12.89% | 6.92% | — | — | 1.67% | — | 74.7% |
| Vox Populi Polling | May 14–15, 2014 | ? | ±5.2% | — | — | — | 12% | 12% | — | — | — | — | 76% |
| Suffolk | Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 | 426 | ± ? | 8.45% | 15.02% | — | — | 1.88% | 1.88% | 7.04% | — | — | 65.72% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Walter Havenstein | 62,766 | 55.7 | |
| Republican | Andrew Hemingway | 42,005 | 37.3 | |
| Republican | Daniel Greene | 5,362 | 4.8 | |
| Republican | Jonathan Smolin | 2,620 | 2.3 | |
| Total votes | 112,753 | 100 | ||
General election
editDebates
edit- Complete video of debate, October 22, 2014
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[35] | Lean D | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | Lean D | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[37] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[38] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Walt Havenstein (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 1–3, 2014 | 1,690 | ± 2.4% | 51% | 46% | — | 3% |
| WMUR/UNH | October 29–November 2, 2014 | 757 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 43% | 1% | 9% |
| New England College | October 31–November 1, 2014 | 1,526 | ± 2.51% | 51% | 44% | 2% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 29–30, 2014 | 940 | ± 3% | 51% | 42% | — | 7% |
| Vox Populi Polling | October 27–28, 2014 | 638 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 47% | — | 7% |
| WMUR/UNH | October 19–22, 2014 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 37% | 1% | 11% |
| American Research Group | October 19–22, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
| New England College | October 24, 2014 | 1,132 | ± 2.91% | 47% | 47% | 2% | 4% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,042 | ± 4% | 47% | 38% | 1% | 13% |
| American Research Group | October 19–22, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 53% | 43% | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 20–21, 2014 | 764 | ± ? | 53% | 43% | — | 4% |
| CNN/ORC | October 18–21, 2014 | 645 LV | ± 4% | 51% | 45% | — | 4% |
| 877 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 40% | — | 5% | ||
| UMass Lowell | October 15–21, 2014 | 643 LV | ± 4.5% | 49% | 45% | — | 7% |
| 900 RV | ± 3.8% | 49% | 40% | — | 11% | ||
| Suffolk/Boston Herald | October 16–19, 2014 | 500 | ± ? | 49% | 39% | — | 11% |
| New England College | October 16, 2014 | 921 | ± 3.23% | 51% | 43% | 3% | 4% |
| New England College | October 9, 2014 | 1,081 | ± 2.98% | 49% | 44% | 3% | 5% |
| High Point University | October 4–8, 2014 | 824 | ± 3.4% | 50% | 42% | 4% | 4% |
| WMUR/UNH | September 29–October 5, 2014 | 532 | ± 4.2% | 46% | 36% | 2% | 16% |
| New England College | October 3, 2014 | 1,286 | ± 2.73% | 51% | 41% | 3% | 4% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20–October 1, 2014 | 1,260 | ± 3% | 49% | 39% | 0% | 12% |
| New England College | September 26, 2014 | 1,331 | ± 2.69% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 5% |
| American Research Group | September 27–29, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 55% | 40% | — | 5% |
| New England College | September 19–20, 2014 | 1,494 | ± 2.54% | 52% | 40% | 4% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 18–19, 2014 | 652 | ± 3.8% | 52% | 43% | — | 4% |
| Vox Populi Polling | September 15–16, 2014 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| American Research Group | September 12–15, 2014 | 544 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 40% | — | 12% |
| New England College | September 10–11, 2014 | 630 | ± 3.98% | 51% | 36% | 4% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 10–11, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 6% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18–September 2, 2014 | 1,159 | ± 4% | 51% | 34% | 3% | 13% |
| WMUR/UNH | August 7–17, 2014 | 609 | ± 4% | 49% | 32% | 1% | 18% |
| National Research/RGA | August 10–13, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 37% | 1% | 18% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,246 | ± 2.9% | 53% | 38% | 2% | 7% |
| WMUR/UNH | June 19–July 1, 2014 | 669 | ± 3.8% | 58% | 29% | 1% | 10% |
| Suffolk/Boston Herald Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | June 14–18, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 19% | 3%[39] | 28% |
| American Research Group | June 14–18, 2014 | 540 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 32% | — | 23% |
| Vox Populi Polling | May 14–15, 2014 | 707 | ± 3.6% | 43% | 30% | — | 27% |
| Rockefeller Center | April 21–25, 2014 | 412 | ± 4.8% | 40% | 19% | — | 41% |
| WMUR/UNH | April 1–9, 2014 | 387 | ± 5% | 49% | 19% | 2% | 30% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Bill Binnie (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk/Boston Herald | Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 55% | 26% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,354 | ± 2.7% | 51% | 31% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England College | May 2–5, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.27% | 55% | 24% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 19–21, 2013 | 933 | ± 3.2% | 52% | 38% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Brad Cook (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 13–16, 2013 | 1,038 | ± 3% | 49% | 34% | — | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Ted Gatsas (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/UNH | April 1–9, 2014 | 387 | ± 5% | 50% | 27% | 1% | 23% |
| Suffolk/Boston Herald | Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 28% | — | 19% |
| WMUR/UNH | January 21–26, 2014 | 584 | ± 4.1% | 45% | 34% | 2% | 19% |
| New England College | October 7–9, 2013 | 1,063 | ± 3% | 53% | 25% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 19–21, 2013 | 933 | ± 3.2% | 51% | 35% | — | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Daniel Greene (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk/Boston Herald Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | June 14–18, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 13% | 4%[39] | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Frank Guinta (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 19–21, 2013 | 933 | ± 3.2% | 54% | 36% | — | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Andrew Hemingway (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/UNH | August 7–17, 2014 | 609 | ± 4% | 51% | 31% | 1% | 17% |
| WMUR/UNH | June 19–July 1, 2014 | 669 | ± 3.8% | 54% | 28% | 0% | 18% |
| Suffolk/Boston Herald Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | June 14–18, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 17% | 3%[39] | 29% |
| Vox Populi Polling | May 14–15, 2014 | 707 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 31% | — | 27% |
| Hickman Analytics | April 24–30, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 50% | 28% | — | 22% |
| Rockefeller Center | April 21–25, 2014 | 412 | ± 4.8% | 40% | 20% | — | 40% |
| WMUR/UNH | April 1–9, 2014 | 387 | ± 5% | 49% | 22% | 1% | 28% |
| American Research Group | March 13–16, 2014 | 533 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 30% | — | 25% |
| Suffolk/Boston Herald | Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 23% | — | 21% |
| WMUR/UNH | January 21–26, 2014 | 584 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 27% | 2% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,354 | ± 2.7% | 51% | 25% | — | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
George Lambert (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk/Boston Herald | Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 55% | 22% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,354 | ± 2.7% | 50% | 26% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 13–16, 2013 | 1,038 | ± 3% | 49% | 32% | — | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Chuck Morse (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk/Boston Herald | Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 23% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,354 | ± 2.7% | 50% | 27% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 13–16, 2013 | 1,038 | ± 3% | 49% | 33% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Andy Sanborn (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 13–16, 2013 | 1,038 | ± 3% | 49% | 32% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Kevin Smith (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 19–21, 2013 | 933 | ± 3.2% | 52% | 32% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Jonathan Smolin (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk/Boston Herald Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | June 14–18, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 15% | 3%[39] | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Christopher T. Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 19–21, 2013 | 933 | ± 3.2% | 53% | 37% | — | 10% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maggie Hassan (incumbent) | 254,666 | 52.37% | −2.24% | |
| Republican | Walt Havenstein | 230,610 | 47.43% | +4.91% | |
| Write-in | 976 | 0.20% | +0.10% | ||
| Total votes | 486,183 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican
edit- Belknap (largest city: Laconia)
- Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester)
- Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)
By congressional district
editHassan won both congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[41]
| District | Hassan | Havenstein | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 50.86% | 49.14% | Frank Guinta |
| 2nd | 54.11% | 45.89% | Annie Kuster |
References
edit- ^ a b "Poll: Job approval ratings rise for Hassan". WMUR. July 31, 2013. Retrieved August 2, 2013.
- ^ Schweitzer, Sarah (November 4, 2004). "Defeated after 1 term, N.H. governor fades out". The Boston Globe. Retrieved on February 6, 2011.
- ^ "APPROVAL OF HASSAN AND LEGISLATURE REMAINS HIGH, MOST THINK NH IS ON RIGHT TRACK" (PDF). WMUR/UNH. October 24, 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 21, 2014. Retrieved February 3, 2014.
- ^ "Ratings". Archived from the original on March 5, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings: Initial ratings for 2013-14". Retrieved November 22, 2013.
- ^ Jacobson, Louis (July 18, 2013). "Handicapping the 2013-2014 Governors Races: The Tossups". Governing.com. Archived from the original on October 14, 2014. Retrieved July 25, 2013.
- ^ "Ratings". Retrieved September 6, 2013.
- ^ "2014 Governors Races".
- ^ "Ratings". Retrieved September 6, 2013.
- ^ Dan Tuohy (June 12, 2014). "Liberty Activist, Free Stater Running for Governor as a Democrat". Salem Patch. Archived from the original on July 14, 2014. Retrieved July 1, 2014.
- ^ Mackin, Jean (May 30, 2014). "Gov. Hassan announces she is running for reelection". WMUR-TV. Retrieved June 11, 2014.
- ^ "OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE - ELECTION DIVISION DEMOCRATIC CUMULATIVE FILING AS OF 07/22/2014". New Hampshire Secretary of State. July 22, 2014. Retrieved July 25, 2014.
- ^ a b "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Election, 2014". October 29, 2014. Retrieved October 31, 2014.
- ^ a b Tuohy, Dan (June 30, 2014). "Ballot Law Commission Confirms Havenstein Candidacy". Nashua Patch. Retrieved July 15, 2014.
- ^ John DiStaso (April 2, 2014). "Republican Walt Havenstein running for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on October 23, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
- ^ Ronayne, Kathleen (January 30, 2014). "Entrepreneur, political activist Andrew Hemingway to challenge Hassan for governor". Concord Monitor. Retrieved January 31, 2014.
- ^ Scott Conroy (July 1, 2014). "Andrew Hemingway: A Millennial Governor in N.H.?". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 2, 2014.
- ^ a b c d Pindell, James (September 10, 2013). "The list: which Republicans could run for major office next year". WMUR. Archived from the original on September 11, 2013. Retrieved September 10, 2013.
- ^ Pindell, James (September 3, 2013). "Bradley rules out running for statewide office next year". WMUR Political Scoop. Archived from the original on September 4, 2013. Retrieved September 3, 2013.
- ^ DiStaso, John (September 11, 2013). "John DiStaso's Granite Status: GOP Manchester attorney Brad Cook confirms eyeing a run for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on December 6, 2013. Retrieved September 11, 2013.
- ^ DiStaso, John (January 29, 2014). "Conservative activist Andrew Hemingway plans run for NH governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on February 19, 2014. Retrieved February 2, 2014.
- ^ a b c Pindell, James (November 9, 2012). "Political Standing for Nov. 9, 2012". WMUR Political Scoop. Retrieved January 28, 2013.
- ^ Toeplitz, Shira (November 29, 2012). "New Hampshire: Guinta Opens Door to Senate, Comeback Bids". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2013. Retrieved January 28, 2013.
- ^ Cahn, Emily (September 24, 2013). "Ex-Congressman Launches Rematch Bid With Bipartisan Tone". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 25, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2013.
- ^ "Former NH state GOP sen. Gary Lambert to announce House bid against Democrat Annie Kuster". Daily Journal. Associated Press. September 4, 2013. Archived from the original on September 4, 2013. Retrieved September 4, 2013.
- ^ Landrigan, Kevin (June 11, 2013). "Socially liberal, fiscally conservative Litchfield GOP Rep. Lambert may run for governor". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved June 11, 2013.
- ^ Lessard, Ryan (April 15, 2013). "Ovide Lamontagne Takes Major Anti-Abortion Job In D.C." nhpr.org. Retrieved April 19, 2013.
- ^ Pindell, James (February 13, 2014). "NH Sen. Reagan being encouraged to run for governor". WMUR Political Scoop. Retrieved February 13, 2014.
- ^ John DiStaso (April 4, 2014). "NH State Sen. John Reagan (R) ..." Twitter. Retrieved April 7, 2014.
- ^ Pindell, James (September 27, 2013). "GOP state Sen. Andy Sanborn will not run for governor". WMUR Political Scoop. Retrieved October 1, 2013.
- ^ Brennan, Kevin (January 25, 2013). "Smith Considering Another Gov. Run in N.H." National Journal. Archived from the original on May 7, 2013. Retrieved January 28, 2013.
- ^ DiStaso, John (July 18, 2013). "John DiStaso's Granite Status: Chris Sununu won't run for Gov, US House or US Senate in '14; plans to seek reelection to Executive Council". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on August 22, 2013. Retrieved July 19, 2013.
- ^ DiStato, John (April 12, 2013). "Exclusive: Former Sen. John E. Sununu won't run for office in 2014". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on June 20, 2013. Retrieved April 12, 2013.
- ^ "Our Campaigns - NH Governor - R Primary Race - Sep 09, 2014". www.ourcampaigns.com. Retrieved October 9, 2024.
- ^ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
- ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
- ^ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
- ^ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
- ^ a b c d Max Abramson (L)
- ^ "Governor - 2014 General Election". Dave Leip's Atlas. Retrieved November 22, 2014.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
External links
edit- New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2014 at Ballotpedia
- Campaign contributions[permanent dead link] at FollowTheMoney.org
- Official campaign websites