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2012 United States presidential election in Kentucky

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

The 2012 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 General Election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose eight electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

2012 United States presidential election in Kentucky
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Turnout59.70%[1]Decrease
 
Nominee Mitt Romney Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Massachusetts Illinois
Running mate Paul Ryan Joe Biden
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,087,190 679,370
Percentage 60.47% 37.78%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Romney carried Kentucky by a landslide margin, winning 60.47% of the vote to Obama's 37.78%. This represented a margin of 22.69%, a great improvement for the Republican Party from 2008, when they won with a 16.22% margin. Although Kentucky had been won by Southern Democrat Bill Clinton twice in the 1990s, Obama was seen as a poor cultural fit for the state, and he did not compete here either time he ran. The Romney campaign also attacked Obama's administration as being hostile to the coal industry, historically an important part of the state's economy. Consequently, Obama suffered a historically poor showing in the traditionally staunchly Democratic coalfields of Eastern Kentucky, where many counties that had even voted by wide margins for landslide Democratic losers like George McGovern and Walter Mondale defected to the Republicans in 2012.

Knott County, which had given Clinton 73% of the vote in 1996 and nearly 72% to Mondale in 1984 (despite the latter losing nationally by more than 18 percentage points and only carrying one state), gave Romney 73% of the vote in 2012. Even Elliott County, the only county in the state in which Obama had broken 60% in 2008, barely held on in 2012, giving Obama a narrow plurality win, his only victory in the region, and one of just four county wins in the entire state. This marked the first time since the county's founding that the Democratic nominee won less than 60% of the vote in Elliott County, and would prove to be the conclusion of Elliott's longest-in-the-nation, 140-year Democratic voting streak. The county would flip to the GOP by a landslide margin four years later. Wolfe County, which had returned to the Democratic Party in 2004 and 2008 after casting its first-ever Republican vote for George W. Bush in 2000, went for Romney by over twenty points. As such, Obama became the first Democrat to ever win the White House without carrying Wolfe County since its founding in 1860, Menifee County since its founding in 1869, or Henderson County since the founding of the Republican Party.

The only part of the state where Obama won convincingly was Jefferson County, the most urban and populous county in the state, and home to Louisville. He also eked out a close win in Fayette County, the second-most populous county, home to Lexington. Despite losing five counties he won in 2008, he managed to flip Franklin County, home to the state capital of Frankfort, which he had narrowly lost in 2008. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time that Elliott and Franklin Counties voted for a Democrat in a presidential election. Obama is the only Democrat to ever win two terms without carrying the state at least once.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Kentucky Democratic primary, 2012
 
← 2008 May 22, 2012 (2012-05-22) 2016 →
   
Candidate Barack Obama Uncommitted
Home state Illinois n/a
Delegate count 39 34
Popular vote 119,293 86,925
Percentage 57.85% 42.15%
 
 
Kentucky results by county


Obama:      50–60%      60–70%     70–80%      80–90%
Uncommitted:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

  Barack Obama
  Uncommitted
  Tie

Barack Obama's only "opponent" in the primary was the "Uncommitted" ballot option, which garnered more than 42% of the primary vote, making Kentucky one of Obama's worst contested primary results.[2]

Kentucky Democratic primary, 2012[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
  Barack Obama (incumbent) 119,293 57.85% 39
Uncommitted 86,925 42.15% 34

Republican primary

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Kentucky Republican primary, 2012
 
← 2008 May 22, 2012 (2012-05-22) 2016 →
       
Candidate Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Santorum
Home state Massachusetts Texas Pennsylvania
Delegate count 42 0 0
Popular vote 117,621 22,074 15,629
Percentage 66.77% 12.53% 8.87%
     
Candidate Newt Gingrich Uncommitted
Home state Georgia N/A
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 10,479 10,357
Percentage 5.95% 5.88%
 
Kentucky results by county
  Mitt Romney
(Note: Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)

The Republican primary occurred on May 22, 2012.[4][5] 42 delegates were chosen, all of which were allocated to and pledged to vote for Mitt Romney at the 2012 Republican National Convention. Three delegates remain unpledged to any candidate. All Republicans in Kentucky were allowed to participate in the primary. A Republican primary was also held in Arkansas on this day.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich withdrew from the presidential race on April 10 and May 2, 2012, respectively. Both endorsed Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee.

Kentucky Republican primary, 2012[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
  Mitt Romney 117,621 66.8% 42
Ron Paul 22,074 12.53% 0
Rick Santorum 15,629 8.87% 0
Newt Gingrich 10,479 5.95% 0
Uncommitted 10,357 5.88% 0
Unpledged delegates: 3
Total: 176,160 100.00% 45
Key: Withdrew prior to contest

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[7] Safe R November 6, 2012
CNN[8] Safe R November 6, 2012
New York Times[9] Safe R November 6, 2012
Washington Post[10] Safe R November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[11] Solid R November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Solid R November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[13] Solid R November 6, 2012

Results

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United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2012[14]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 1,087,190 60.47% 8
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent) 679,370 37.78% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 17,063 0.95% 0
Independent Randall Terry Missy Smith 6,872 0.38% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 6,337 0.35% 0
Others 380 0.02% 0
Totals 1,797,212 100.00% 8
Voter turnout (registered voters) 59.24%

By county

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County Mitt Romney
Republican 		Barack Obama
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 5,841 76.86% 1,660 21.84% 99 1.30% 4,181 55.02% 7,600
Allen 5,184 73.01% 1,808 25.46% 108 1.53% 3,376 47.55% 7,100
Anderson 6,822 66.10% 3,315 32.12% 183 1.78% 3,507 33.98% 10,320
Ballard 2,647 67.96% 1,189 30.53% 59 1.51% 1,458 37.43% 3,895
Barren 10,922 65.92% 5,400 32.59% 246 1.49% 5,522 33.33% 16,568
Bath 2,275 55.19% 1,770 42.94% 77 1.87% 505 12.25% 4,122
Bell 7,127 75.16% 2,224 23.45% 131 1.39% 4,903 51.71% 9,482
Boone 35,922 68.41% 15,629 29.76% 960 1.83% 20,293 38.65% 52,511
Bourbon 4,692 59.22% 3,075 38.81% 156 1.97% 1,617 20.41% 7,923
Boyd 10,884 57.14% 7,776 40.82% 389 2.04% 3,108 16.32% 19,049
Boyle 7,703 62.26% 4,471 36.14% 199 1.60% 3,232 26.12% 12,373
Bracken 2,029 62.78% 1,147 35.49% 56 1.73% 882 27.29% 3,232
Breathitt 3,318 66.25% 1,562 31.19% 128 2.56% 1,756 35.06% 5,008
Breckinridge 5,025 63.06% 2,825 35.45% 119 1.49% 2,200 27.61% 7,969
Bullitt 21,306 67.04% 9,971 31.38% 502 1.58% 11,335 35.66% 31,779
Butler 3,716 73.44% 1,293 25.55% 51 1.01% 2,423 47.89% 5,060
Caldwell 3,904 66.62% 1,852 31.60% 104 1.78% 2,052 35.02% 5,860
Calloway 9,440 62.63% 5,317 35.28% 315 2.09% 4,123 27.35% 15,072
Campbell 24,240 60.33% 15,080 37.53% 857 2.14% 9,160 22.80% 40,177
Carlisle 1,835 70.06% 750 28.64% 34 1.30% 1,085 41.42% 2,619
Carroll 1,999 54.32% 1,629 44.27% 52 1.41% 370 10.05% 3,680
Carter 5,279 59.26% 3,383 37.98% 246 2.76% 1,896 21.28% 8,908
Casey 4,904 80.51% 1,086 17.83% 101 1.66% 3,818 62.68% 6,091
Christian 13,475 61.38% 8,252 37.59% 228 1.03% 5,223 23.79% 21,955
Clark 9,931 64.42% 5,228 33.91% 257 1.67% 4,703 30.51% 15,416
Clay 6,176 83.65% 1,111 15.05% 96 1.30% 5,065 68.60% 7,383
Clinton 3,569 81.24% 752 17.12% 72 1.64% 2,817 64.12% 4,393
Crittenden 2,839 73.66% 960 24.91% 55 1.43% 1,879 48.75% 3,854
Cumberland 2,216 77.65% 599 20.99% 39 1.36% 1,617 56.66% 2,854
Daviess 25,092 59.62% 16,208 38.51% 787 1.87% 8,884 21.11% 42,087
Edmonson 3,232 69.24% 1,374 29.43% 62 1.33% 1,858 39.81% 4,668
Elliott 1,126 46.94% 1,186 49.44% 87 3.62% -60 -2.50% 2,399
Estill 3,749 72.32% 1,356 26.16% 79 1.52% 2,393 46.16% 5,184
Fayette 60,795 48.30% 62,080 49.32% 2,991 2.38% -1,285 -1.02% 125,866
Fleming 3,780 65.38% 1,911 33.05% 91 1.57% 1,869 32.33% 5,782
Floyd 9,784 65.71% 4,733 31.79% 373 2.50% 5,051 33.92% 14,890
Franklin 11,345 48.61% 11,535 49.43% 457 1.96% -190 -0.82% 23,337
Fulton 1,425 57.44% 1,022 41.19% 34 1.37% 403 16.25% 2,481
Gallatin 1,758 57.43% 1,238 40.44% 65 2.13% 520 16.99% 3,061
Garrard 5,310 75.03% 1,661 23.47% 106 1.50% 3,649 51.56% 7,077
Grant 5,664 65.80% 2,810 32.64% 134 1.56% 2,854 33.16% 8,608
Graves 10,699 69.01% 4,547 29.33% 257 1.66% 6,152 39.68% 15,503
Grayson 6,404 69.08% 2,744 29.60% 123 1.32% 3,660 39.48% 9,271
Green 3,634 74.84% 1,165 23.99% 57 1.17% 2,469 50.85% 4,856
Greenup 8,855 58.38% 6,027 39.73% 286 1.89% 2,828 18.65% 15,168
Hancock 2,212 53.51% 1,833 44.34% 89 2.15% 379 9.17% 4,134
Hardin 23,357 59.56% 15,214 38.79% 647 1.65% 8,143 20.77% 39,218
Harlan 8,652 81.19% 1,830 17.17% 175 1.64% 6,822 64.02% 10,657
Harrison 4,556 63.60% 2,471 34.50% 136 1.90% 2,085 29.10% 7,163
Hart 4,257 64.29% 2,283 34.48% 82 1.23% 1,974 29.81% 6,622
Henderson 10,296 55.29% 8,091 43.45% 235 1.26% 2,205 11.84% 18,622
Henry 3,940 59.79% 2,530 38.39% 120 1.82% 1,410 21.40% 6,590
Hickman 1,431 66.90% 686 32.07% 22 1.03% 745 34.83% 2,139
Hopkins 13,681 69.21% 5,789 29.29% 297 1.50% 7,892 39.92% 19,767
Jackson 4,365 86.25% 612 12.09% 84 1.66% 3,753 74.16% 5,061
Jefferson 148,423 43.60% 186,181 54.69% 5,808 1.71% -37,758 -11.09% 340,412
Jessamine 14,233 68.98% 6,001 29.08% 399 1.94% 8,232 39.90% 20,633
Johnson 7,095 78.53% 1,723 19.07% 217 2.40% 5,372 59.46% 9,035
Kenton 41,389 61.13% 24,920 36.81% 1,395 2.06% 16,469 24.32% 67,704
Knott 4,130 72.55% 1,420 24.94% 143 2.51% 2,710 47.61% 5,693
Knox 8,467 76.28% 2,484 22.38% 149 1.34% 5,983 53.90% 11,100
LaRue 3,911 67.85% 1,733 30.07% 120 2.08% 2,178 37.78% 5,764
Laurel 18,151 81.00% 3,905 17.43% 352 1.57% 14,246 63.57% 22,408
Lawrence 3,995 71.44% 1,520 27.18% 77 1.38% 2,475 44.26% 5,592
Lee 1,977 75.37% 595 22.68% 51 1.95% 1,382 52.69% 2,623
Leslie 4,439 89.62% 433 8.74% 81 1.64% 4,006 80.88% 4,953
Letcher 6,811 77.77% 1,702 19.43% 245 2.80% 5,109 58.34% 8,758
Lewis 3,326 69.74% 1,342 28.14% 101 2.12% 1,984 41.60% 4,769
Lincoln 6,416 70.10% 2,582 28.21% 154 1.69% 3,834 41.89% 9,152
Livingston 3,089 68.48% 1,346 29.84% 76 1.68% 1,743 38.64% 4,511
Logan 6,899 65.64% 3,469 33.01% 142 1.35% 3,430 32.63% 10,510
Lyon 2,412 62.83% 1,373 35.76% 54 1.41% 1,039 27.07% 3,839
Madison 21,128 63.41% 11,512 34.55% 682 2.04% 9,616 28.86% 33,322
Magoffin 3,391 69.12% 1,433 29.21% 82 1.67% 1,958 39.91% 4,906
Marion 3,800 51.93% 3,418 46.71% 100 1.36% 382 5.22% 7,318
Marshall 10,402 66.17% 5,022 31.95% 295 1.88% 5,380 34.22% 15,719
Martin 3,180 83.16% 574 15.01% 70 1.83% 2,606 68.15% 3,824
Mason 4,197 60.99% 2,592 37.67% 92 1.34% 1,605 23.32% 6,881
McCracken 19,979 65.40% 10,062 32.94% 510 1.66% 9,917 32.46% 30,551
McCreary 4,564 79.97% 1,069 18.73% 74 1.30% 3,495 61.24% 5,707
McLean 2,705 64.40% 1,432 34.10% 63 1.50% 1,273 30.30% 4,200
Meade 6,606 60.52% 4,122 37.76% 188 1.72% 2,484 22.76% 10,916
Menifee 1,484 57.12% 1,048 40.34% 66 2.54% 436 16.78% 2,598
Mercer 6,820 68.62% 2,966 29.84% 153 1.54% 3,854 38.78% 9,939
Metcalfe 2,676 63.96% 1,425 34.06% 83 1.98% 1,251 29.90% 4,184
Monroe 3,762 79.27% 936 19.72% 48 1.01% 2,826 59.55% 4,746
Montgomery 6,398 62.43% 3,701 36.11% 149 1.46% 2,697 26.32% 10,248
Morgan 3,021 67.55% 1,369 30.61% 82 1.84% 1,652 36.94% 4,472
Muhlenberg 7,762 60.93% 4,771 37.45% 206 1.62% 2,991 23.48% 12,739
Nelson 10,673 57.59% 7,611 41.07% 249 1.34% 3,062 16.52% 18,533
Nicholas 1,583 61.33% 948 36.73% 50 1.94% 635 24.60% 2,581
Ohio 6,470 67.07% 2,987 30.97% 189 1.96% 3,483 36.10% 9,646
Oldham 20,179 67.52% 9,240 30.92% 465 1.56% 10,939 36.60% 29,884
Owen 2,971 65.20% 1,501 32.94% 85 1.86% 1,470 32.26% 4,557
Owsley 1,279 80.95% 283 17.91% 18 1.14% 996 63.04% 1,580
Pendleton 3,556 64.26% 1,859 33.59% 119 2.15% 1,697 30.67% 5,534
Perry 8,040 78.51% 2,047 19.99% 154 1.50% 5,993 58.52% 10,241
Pike 17,590 74.42% 5,646 23.89% 400 1.69% 11,944 50.53% 23,636
Powell 2,766 61.73% 1,620 36.15% 95 2.12% 1,146 25.58% 4,481
Pulaski 20,714 79.66% 4,976 19.14% 313 1.20% 15,738 60.52% 26,003
Robertson 579 61.93% 340 36.36% 16 1.71% 239 25.57% 935
Rockcastle 5,028 80.89% 1,097 17.65% 91 1.46% 3,931 63.24% 6,216
Rowan 4,035 52.64% 3,438 44.85% 192 2.51% 597 7.79% 7,665
Russell 6,346 80.24% 1,445 18.27% 118 1.49% 4,901 61.97% 7,909
Scott 12,679 61.63% 7,532 36.61% 362 1.76% 5,147 25.02% 20,573
Shelby 11,790 63.17% 6,634 35.55% 239 1.28% 5,156 27.62% 18,663
Simpson 4,355 61.40% 2,650 37.36% 88 1.24% 1,705 24.04% 7,093
Spencer 5,726 67.92% 2,549 30.23% 156 1.85% 3,177 37.69% 8,431
Taylor 7,551 68.96% 3,285 30.00% 114 1.04% 4,266 38.96% 10,950
Todd 3,247 68.82% 1,403 29.74% 68 1.44% 1,844 39.08% 4,718
Trigg 4,520 67.04% 2,115 31.37% 107 1.59% 2,405 35.67% 6,742
Trimble 2,133 60.20% 1,355 38.24% 55 1.56% 778 21.96% 3,543
Union 3,955 66.15% 1,942 32.48% 82 1.37% 2,013 33.67% 5,979
Warren 26,384 60.10% 16,805 38.28% 714 1.62% 9,579 21.82% 43,903
Washington 3,495 66.97% 1,669 31.98% 55 1.05% 1,826 34.99% 5,219
Wayne 5,289 73.36% 1,855 25.73% 66 0.91% 3,434 47.63% 7,210
Webster 3,607 65.94% 1,765 32.27% 98 1.79% 1,842 33.67% 5,470
Whitley 10,232 78.27% 2,683 20.52% 157 1.21% 7,549 57.75% 13,072
Wolfe 1,542 60.26% 976 38.14% 41 1.60% 566 22.12% 2,559
Woodford 7,219 58.54% 4,883 39.60% 230 1.86% 2,336 18.94% 12,332
Totals 1,087,190 60.47% 679,370 37.78% 31,488 1.75% 407,820 22.69% 1,798,048
 
County Flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

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Romney won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[15]

District Romney Obama Representative
1st 66.4% 32.1% Ed Whitfield
2nd 63.28% 35.15% Brett Guthrie
3rd 42.8% 55.73% John Yarmuth
4th 63.38% 34.83% Thomas Massie
5th 75% 23.25% Hal Rogers
6th 55.8% 42.16% Andy Barr

Analysis

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On election night, Kentucky went as expected to the Republican candidate Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney over Incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama of bordering Illinois. Obama was reelected but nonetheless, lost Kentucky. In most recent years Democrats have maintained their lead in registered voters compared to Republicans.[16] However, Kentucky is known as a highly conservative state with a populist streak. In most recent presidential elections in Kentucky, Democrats usually achieve lower 40 or upper 30% margins. Obama performed significantly worse in 2012 than he did in 2008. Appalachian Kentucky used to be a place were Democrats thrived because of working-class people, particularly unionized coal miners.[17] However this region has become more and more Republican in recent years. Romney performed, for the most part, very well statewide. Obama won four counties. Obama was however able to maintain a solid performance in perhaps the most Democratic place in the state, Jefferson County (Louisville Metro). The other counties Obama won were Franklin, Elliott and Fayette.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Summary TXT file".
  2. ^ Dougherty, Michael Brendan (May 22, 2012). "Obama Is Getting Humiliated In The Kentucky Primary, 40 Percent Of Democrats Voted For 'Uncommitted'". Business Insider. Retrieved July 9, 2019.
  3. ^ "Kentucky Secretary of State" (PDF). elect.ky.gov. May 22, 2012. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  4. ^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
  5. ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  6. ^ "Kentucky State Board of Elections".
  7. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  8. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  9. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  10. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  11. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  12. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  13. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  14. ^ "Kentucky State Board of Elections". Kentucky State Board of Elections.
  15. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  16. ^ "Registration Statistics – State Board of Elections". elect.ky.gov. Archived from the original on January 1, 2018. Retrieved December 2, 2017.
  17. ^ "Appalachia Used To Be A Democratic Stronghold. Here's How To Make It One Again". Retrieved December 2, 2017.
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