Whiskey in the Jar

For the conflict sometimes referred to as the Second Cold War, see Cold War (1979–1985). For the term relating to the end of a unipolar-influenced world, see Neo Cold War.

The New Cold War[1] is a term used to describe a perceived rekindling of conflict, tension, and competition between Russia and other Western Powers, most predominantly the United States, following the 1991 end of the Cold War. The term gained significant usage following the August 2008 escalation of hostilities between Russia and Georgia, the latter of which has become a close ally of the United States and NATO. The term "Cold War II"[2] has also been used less frequently to describe the situation.

Contents

   * 1 Background
   * 2 Modern term
   * 3 References
   * 4 External links

Background

Plans by the United States to create missile defense installations in Poland, and potentially other former Soviet Bloc countries, were met with a tense response in 2007, with the Kremlin saying that the moves by the United States "brings tremendous change to the strategic balance in Europe, and to the world's strategic stability."[3] In addition to its close ties with Poland,[4][5] the United States has become an ardent ally of Georgia and has worked strenuously towards Georgia's inclusion in NATO.[6]

While the conflict between Russia and Georgia is directly related to the status of the breakaway Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, some in the media have argued[7] the conflict is more clearly an act by Russia to reassert its influence in its "own backyard."[8] Former Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev, in an editorial published by the Washington Post in August 2008, asserted that attempts by the United States to bring Georgia into its "sphere" of "'national interest'" were a "serious blunder."[9] The Independent printed that it believed the military hostilities "revived the spectre of the most tense days of the Cold War."[10]

Others in the media have argued[11] the tension between Russia and the West has been growing under former Russian President, now Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. An editorial from Bloomberg claimed that the conflict "is yet another example of Putin's aggressive style of Russian nationalism." The editorial pointed to past problems with gas supply problems to the Ukraine and disputes with Moscow over oil company investments by Royal Dutch Shell and BP.[8] Putin's predecessor as president, Boris Yeltsin, however, heightened his criticism of the United States just weeks before he left office, condemning what he believed to be then-President Bill Clinton's attempts "to put pressure on Russia."[12] At the time, in response to those comments, then-Prime Minister Putin "played down Yeltsin's remarks, arguing that it would be wrong to conclude from the president's statements that relations between Russia and the United States were souring."[12] Only weeks later, Yeltsin surprisingly stepped down and unexpectedly named Putin as his successor.[13]

Modern term

The modern term may have been most clearly defined by two books, both titled "The New Cold War," authored by Mark MacKinnon, a reporter for the Globe and Mail and Edward Lucas, the former Moscow Bureau Chief for The Economist. MacKinnon's book was subtitled "Revolutions, Rigged Elections, and Pipeline Politics in the Former Soviet Union" and was Published in April 2007. Lucas's book was subtitled "Putin's Russia and the Threat to the West" and was published in February 2008. In an interview following the start of the August 2008 military conflict between Georgia and Russia, MacKinnon was quoted as saying that the escalation "set a whole new direction for the West and NATO in terms of relations with Russia."[14]

References

  1. ^ BBC News (16 August 2008), "'Cold war' comparisons on Georgia", BBC News, <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7564816.stm> 
  2. ^ Floyd, Chris (08 August 2008), "Marching Through Georgia I: Cold War II Proxy Conflict Turns Hot", Baltimore Chronicle, <http://baltimorechronicle.com/2008/080808Floyd.shtml> 
  3. ^ Harding, Like (11 April 2007), "Russia threatening new cold war over missile defence", The Guardian, <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/apr/11/usa.topstories3> 
  4. ^ the Associated Press (02 February 2008), "U.S. and Poland Agree in Principle on Missile Defense", the New York Times, <http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/02/washington/02poland.html?ex=1359694800&en=4cb59dcacbe8b02f&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss> 
  5. ^ BBC News (13 January 2005), "Poland to down hijacked aircraft", the BBC News, <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4172487.stm> 
  6. ^ Butler, Desmond (19 March 2008), "Georgian President Gets US Boost on NATO", the Associated Press, <http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2008/03/19/1377110-georgian-president-gets-us-boost-on-nato> 
  7. ^ Martin, Rachel (16 August 2008), "Russia's Georgia Invasion May Be About Oil", ABC News, <http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5595811&page=1> 
  8. ^ a b Lynn, Matthew (13 August 2008), "Russian Assault in Georgia Threatens New Cold War", Bloomberg News, <http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aOiuyd2rBlUI&refer=home> 
  9. ^ Mikhail Gorbachev (12 August 2008), "A Path to Peace in the Caucasus", the Washington Post, <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/11/AR2008081101372.html?hpid=topnews> 
 10. ^ The Independent (17 August 2008), "The new Cold War: Crisis in the Caucasus", The Independent, <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/11/AR2008081101372.html?hpid=topnews> 
 11. ^ Shanker, Thom (01 June 2007), "Administration Rebukes Putin on His Policies", the New York Times, <http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/01/washington/01russia.html> 
 12. ^ a b Laris, Michael (10 December 1999), "In China, Yeltsin Lashes Out at Clinton", the Washington Post, <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-12/10/123r-121099-idx.html> 
 13. ^ Morris, Jim (31 December 1999), "Apologetic Yeltsin resigns; Putin becomes acting president", CNN, <http://archives.cnn.com/1999/WORLD/europe/12/31/yeltsin.resigns.04/> 
 14. ^ Doskoch, Bill (13 August 2008), "Georgia conflict marks turning point: experts", CTV News, <http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080813/russia_west_080813/20080813/> 

[edit] External links

   * The Telegraph's review of The New Cold War by Edward Lucas
   * Maclean's review of The New Cold War by Mark MacKinnon

Current Major Military Alliances

Current Alignment with Regional Blocs

The Neo-Cold War is an expression coined by Joseph Stroupe to refer to the post-Soviet era geopolitical conflict resulting from the implementation of two divergent projects for the configuration a New world order. The two basic opposing ideas for the impending world order are Unipolarity and Multipolarity. The geopolitical aspects of this conflict relate to economic, military, political, cultural, educational, and energy resources competition.

Unipolar vs multipolar world

See also: Hyperpower

A multipolar world is the ideology that has been heralded by Russia, China, India and other regional powers as the most attractive alternative to a US-dominated unipolar world. To them multipolarity means multiple poles, or centers of power, distributed widely and more equitably across the globe, with no single pole inordinately dominating the others.

A unipolar world is defined by Vladimir Putin as "one center of authority, one center of force, one center of decision-making [...] one master, one sovereign."

William Kristol and Robert Kagan in their Project for the New American Century (PNAC) call it the "sole remaining super-power", who has the mission to impose a "benevolent global hegemony" upon the world.

George W. Bush, in an address at the United States Military Academy at West Point in 2002, said: "America has, and intends to keep, military strengths beyond challenge, thereby making the destabilizing arms races of other eras pointless, and limiting rivalries to trade and other pursuits of peace." which confirms his adherence to the PNAC project and therefore to building a unipolar world.

Geopolitical developments

Russia-China-India Rise

See also: BRIC

Russia is revising its military doctrine in order to deal with what it sees as an increased threat of US military actions around the world.

China has substantially increased its military budget and it is on the path of becoming a global military power.

India is building its own naval force and enhancing its ballistic missile technology with the help of Russia.

The rapid industrial expansion of China and India has created a competition for the world's energy resources and the need to secure their supply. The increase in the military expenses of these three countries is aimed at ensuring its energy security as threats amount due to the Iraq war and other crisis in energy rich areas of the world.

US and NATO expansion

The US led unipolarity extends NATO operations beyond its natural geographic limits, such as Afghanistan, and other war theaters. It is also incorporating countries formerly under the Russian sphere of influence. US carries out advanced plans to use the new NATO countries as platform for its missile defenses.

Race for the control of the energy resources

Gas and Oil cartels

A gas cartel that brings together the world largest exporters of natural gas was an idea floated initially by Russian president Vladimir Putin, it has also been supported by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, both the leaders of the largest gas producers of the world.

The world largest producers of natural gas are on the way to create if not the equivalent to the OPEC, which sets prices and quotas, at least some coordination is factors such as pricing, infrastructure, and the development of technologies for the cost effective storage of LNG, etc.

External links

• Joseph Stroupe, The Neo Cold War Series,
• Joseph Stroupe, Russian Rubicon: Impending Checkmate of the West, 2006. ISBN 0-9789068-0-2.
• William Engdahl, The emerging Russian Giant, Asia Times, October 26, 2006.
• Joseph Stroupe, A war the West can't win, Asia Times, November 14, 2006.
• Alon Levin & Yuval Bustan, The Second Cold War Theory, December 2005.

Category:Geopolitics

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