2008 United States Senate election in Texas

The 2008 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican John Cornyn defeated Democratic nominee Rick Noriega, a member of the Texas House of Representatives, to win re-election to a second term in office.

2008 United States Senate election in Texas

← 2002 November 4, 2008 2014 →
 
Nominee John Cornyn Rick Noriega
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,337,469 3,389,365
Percentage 54.82% 42.84%

County results
Cornyn:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Noriega:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. senator before election

John Cornyn
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

John Cornyn
Republican

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Democratic primary[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Rick Noriega 1,110,579 51.01%
Democratic Gene Kelly 584,966 26.87%
Democratic Ray McMurrey 269,402 12.37%
Democratic Rhett Smith 213,305 9.75%
Total votes 2,178,252 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Republican Primary[2]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent) 997,216 81.48% +4.17%
Republican Larry Kilgore 226,649 18.52% +0.00%

General election

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Candidates

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  • John Cornyn (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Rick Noriega (D), State Representative
  • Yvonne Adams Schick (L), real estate entrepreneur[3]

Campaign

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Cornyn, running as an incumbent, had a 42% approval rating with a 43% disapproval rating in June 2007.[4] Texas is a red state, that Republican presidential nominee John McCain won with over 55% of the vote. Cornyn slightly underperformed McCain. However, Noriega underperformed both 2008 Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in Texas and Cornyn's 2002 opponent, Ron Kirk, with Noriega receiving just 42.8% of the vote.

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[5] Safe R October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[6] Likely R October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[7] Safe R November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[8] Safe R November 4, 2008

Polling

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Poll source Dates administered Rick Noriega (D) John Cornyn (R)
Rasmussen[9] September 18, 2007 30% 53%
Research 2000[10] September 24–26, 2007 35% 51%
Rasmussen Reports May 1, 2008 43% 47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos[11] May 5–7, 2008 44% 48%
Baselice & Associates[12] May 20–25, 2008 33% 49%
Rasmussen Reports June 2, 2008 35% 52%
Rasmussen Reports June 25, 2008 35% 48%
Rasmussen Reports July 30, 2008 39% 50%
Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2008 43% 50%
Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2008 40% 55%

Results

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2008 Texas U.S. Senate general election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent) 4,337,469 54.82% −0.48%
Democratic Rick Noriega 3,389,365 42.84% −0.50%
Libertarian Yvonne Adams Schick 185,241 2.34% +1.55%
Majority 948,104 11.98%
Turnout 7,912,075 58.28%
Republican hold Swing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Our Campaigns - TX US Senate - D Primary Race - Mar 04, 2008". www.ourcampaigns.com. Retrieved December 19, 2022.
  2. ^ "Our Campaigns - TX US Senate - R Primary Race - Mar 04, 2008". www.ourcampaigns.com. Retrieved December 19, 2022.
  3. ^ "NewsBank". Archived from the original on October 25, 2012. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
  4. ^ "SurveyUSA News Poll #12245". www.surveyusa.com. Retrieved December 19, 2022.
  5. ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  6. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  7. ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  8. ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  9. ^ Rasmussen
  10. ^ Research 2000
  11. ^ Research 2000/Daily Kos
  12. ^ Baselice & Associates
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