Wikipedia

2022 Illinois gubernatorial election

(Redirected from Stephanie Trussell)

For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Illinois, concurrently with the 2022 Illinois general election. Gubernatorial candidates ran on tickets with candidates for lieutenant governor. The incumbent governor and lieutenant governor, first-term Democrats J. B. Pritzker and Juliana Stratton, sought re-election together against Republican nominees Illinois State Senator Darren Bailey and his running mate Stephanie Trussell.

2022 Illinois gubernatorial election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout50.96% Decrease 5.19 pp
 
Nominee J. B. Pritzker Darren Bailey
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Juliana Stratton Stephanie Trussell
Popular vote 2,253,748 1,739,095
Percentage 54.91% 42.37%
Pritzker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bailey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election

J. B. Pritzker
Democratic

Elected Governor

J. B. Pritzker
Democratic

On election day, Pritzker won re-election with 54.9% of the vote, 0.4% higher than his 2018 performance, and the best raw vote percentage for a Democrat for governor since 1960. However, his margin of victory declined from 15.7% in 2018 to just 12.5% in 2022. Pritzker's victory was once again the result of a strong performance in the Chicago metropolitan area—containing a majority of the state's population—winning a lopsided victory in strongly Democratic Cook County, the home of Chicago, as well as winning all but one of the neighboring collar counties. Bailey improved upon former Republican governor Bruce Rauner's performance in 2018 by just under 4%, largely due to the absence of a strong third-party conservative candidate that appeared in 2018. Subsequently, Bailey was able to flip the counties of Alexander, Fulton, Jackson, Knox, and Winnebago, which Pritzker had previously won, while Pritzker managed to flip McLean county, marking the first time since 1948 that it has voted for a Democrat in a gubernatorial election.

Pritzker was the first Illinois governor to serve a full term and be reelected for a second since Rod Blagojevich in 2006. If Pritzker serves the entirety of his term, he will become the first Democratic governor in the state's history to serve two full four-year terms, as every other Democratic governor had either been impeached, died or resigned before finishing their second term.

Background

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The primaries and general elections coincided with those for federal congressional races, the state's U.S. Senate race, and those for other state offices. The election was part of the 2022 Illinois elections.

The primary election was held on June 28.[1] The general election was held on November 8, 2022.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Beverly Miles, U.S. Army veteran, registered nurse and activist[3]
    • Running mate: Karla Shaw[4]

Endorsements

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J. B. Pritzker
Organizations
Newspapers
Labor unions

Results

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Results by county
  Pritzker
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[9][10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic
810,989 91.88%
Democratic
  • Beverly Miles
  • Karla Shaw
 71,704 8.12%
Total votes 882,693 100.0%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Removed from ballot

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Darren Bailey
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Organizations
  • Illinois Citizens for Life[36]
  • Illinois Family Action[37]
  • Illinois Federation for Right to Life[36]
Richard Irvin
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
U.S. Attorneys
Statewide officeholders
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Labor unions
Gary Rabine
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Local officials
Paul Schimpf
Newspapers
Jesse Sullivan
State legislators
Organizations

Polling

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Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Darren
Bailey 		Richard
Irvin 		Gary
Rabine 		Paul
Schimpf 		Max
Solomon 		Jesse
Sullivan 		Other
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics June 6–13, 2022 June 15, 2022 35.0% 18.5% 7.0% 4.5% 1.5% 11.5% 22.0% Bailey +16.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Darren
Bailey 		Richard
Irvin 		Gary
Rabine 		Paul
Schimpf 		Max
Solomon 		Jesse
Sullivan 		Other Undecided
Ogden & Fry (R) June 24, 2022 518 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 13% 9% 3% 1% 17% – 20%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[A] June 20–22, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 37% 14% 7% 4% <1% 17% 1%[c] 18%
Remington Research Group (R)[B] June 14–15, 2022 889 (LV) ± 3.0% 27% 13% 8% 6% 3% 27% – 26%
The Trafalgar Group (R) June 10–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 2.9% 38% 20% 8% 5% 1% 12% – 16%
Ogden & Fry (R) June 11–12, 2022 662 (LV) ± 3.9% 31% 17% 8% 3% 1% 11% – 30%
Public Policy Polling (D) June 6–7, 2022 677 (LV) ± 3.8% 32% 17% 6% 4% 2% 11% – 27%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) Archived June 10, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[A] June 1–2, 2022 600 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 20% 12% 3% – 13% – 24%
1892 Polling (R)[C] May 24–25, 2022 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 25% 31% 8% 2% 1% 11% – 22%
Emerson College May 6–8, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 20% 24% 8% 2% 2% 7% – 37%
Cor Strategies (R) April 29 – May 2, 2022 671 (LV) ± 3.8% 21% 33% 7% 2% 3% 10% – 25%
Cor Strategies (R)[D] April 18–21, 2022 536 (LV) ± 4.2% 13% 30% 4% 1% 2% 9% 2%[d] 38%
Cor Strategies (R)[D] ~February 11, 2022 – (LV) – 23% 10% 6% 5% 1% 11% – 44%
Ogden & Fry (R) October 3–4, 2021 404 (LV) ± 5.0% 33% – 5% 3% – 6% 3% 49%

Results

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Results by county
  Bailey
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Sullivan
  •   50–60%
  Schimpf
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[9][49]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican
458,102 57.48%
Republican
  • Jesse Sullivan
  • Kathleen Murphy
 125,094 15.70%
Republican
119,592 15.00%
Republican
  • Gary Rabine
  • Aaron Del Mar
 52,194 6.55%
Republican
34,676 4.35%
Republican
  • Max Solomon
  • Latasha H. Fields
 7,371 0.92%
Total votes 797,029 100.0%

Libertarian convention

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Candidates

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Nominee

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  • Scott Schluter, veteran, diesel technician, and chair of the Southern Illinois Libertarian Party[50]
    • Running mate: John Phillips[51]

Withdrew

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  • Jon Stewart, former professional wrestler and candidate in 2018[52]

Other parties and independents

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Independents

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Declared but never filed

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Removed from ballot

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General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[55] Solid D March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[56] Solid D March 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] Safe D June 29, 2022
Politico[58] Likely D April 1, 2022
RCP[59] Lean D October 26, 2022
Fox News[60] Solid D August 22, 2022
538[61] Solid D June 30, 2022
Elections Daily[62] Safe D November 7, 2022

Endorsements

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J. B. Pritzker (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
Local officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Darren Bailey (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Organizations
  • A Brotherhood Aimed Towards Education of Illinois[82]
  • Illinois Citizens for Life[36]
  • Illinois Family Action[37]
  • Illinois Federation for Right to Life[36]
  • Illinois Fraternal Order of Police[83]

Polling

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation Dates administered J.B Pritzker (D) Darren Bailey (R) Scott Schluter (L) Margin
FiveThirtyEight June 21– November 8, 2022 56.1% 39.9% 4.8% Pritzker +16.2
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		J. B.
Pritzker (D) 		Darren
Bailey (R) 		Scott
Schluter (L) 		Other Undecided
Victory Research (R) November 5–7, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 49% 42% 5% – 4%
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 56% 37% 2% – 5%
Civiqs October 22–25, 2022 659 (LV) ± 4.3% 56% 39% – 3%[e] 1%
Emerson College October 20–24, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 41% 3% 2%[f] 4%
52% 42% 3% 3%[g] –
University of Illinois Springfield October 17 – 25, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.5% 55% 40% 5% – –
Osage Research (R)[E] October 13–15, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% 4% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 10–11, 2022 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 34% 8% – 9%
Research America October 5–11, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 28% 6% 4%[h] 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[A] September 25–27, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 45% – – 5%
48% 40% 3% – 8%
Emerson College September 21–23, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 36% – 5%[i] 8%
Osage Research (R)[E] September 8–10, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 37% 8% – 13%
Victory Research (R) August 30 – September 1, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 36% 2% – 15%
Victory Geek (D) August 25–28, 2022 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 56% 38% – – 6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[A] August, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 38% 3% – 10%
52% 42% – – 6%
Victory Research (R) July 17–19, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 49% 39% 2% – 10%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[A] June 20–21, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 43% – – 7%
Victory Research (R) January 18–20, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 55% 27% – – 17%
Hypothetical polling
J. B. Pritzker vs. Richard Irvin
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		J. B.
Pritzker (D) 		Richard
Irvin (R) 		Undecided
Victory Research (R) January 18–20, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 53% 22% 25%
J. B. Pritzker vs. Gary Rabine
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		J. B.
Pritzker (D) 		Gary
Rabine (R) 		Undecided
Victory Research (R) January 18–20, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 52% 28% 19%
J. B. Pritzker vs. Paul Schimpf
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		J. B.
Pritzker (D) 		Paul
Schimpf (R) 		Undecided
Victory Research (R) January 18–20, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 56% 22% 22%
J. B. Pritzker vs. Jesse Sullivan
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		J. B.
Pritzker (D) 		Jesse
Sullivan (R) 		Undecided
Victory Research (R) January 18–20, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 53% 22% 25%
J. B. Pritzker vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		J. B.
Pritzker (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Victory Geek (D) November 8–10, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 41% 10%
J. B. Pritzker vs. generic opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		J. B.
Pritzker (D) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
Victory Research (R) July 17–19, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 47% 6%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[A] June 20–21, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 50% 3%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[A] June 20–21, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 44% 10%

Debates

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2022 Illinois gubernatorial debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

J. B. Pritzker Darren Bailey
October 6, 2022 Illinois State University YouTube P P
October 18, 2022 NewsNation YouTube P P

Results

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2022 Illinois gubernatorial election[84]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
2,253,748 54.91% +0.38%
Republican
1,739,095 42.37% +3.54%
Libertarian
  • Scott Schluter
  • John Phillips
 111,712 2.72% +0.32%
Write-in 81 0.0% -0.01%
Total votes 4,104,636 100.0%
Turnout %
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Pritzker won 14 of 17 congressional districts.[85]

District Pritzker Bailey Representative
1st 68% 30% Bobby Rush (117th Congress)
Jonathan Jackson (118th Congress)
2nd 66% 32% Robin Kelly
3rd 68% 29% Marie Newman (117th Congress)
Delia Ramirez (118th Congress)
4th 69% 29% Chuy García
5th 70% 28% Mike Quigley
6th 53% 44% Sean Casten
7th 85% 13% Danny Davis
8th 55% 42% Raja Krishnamoorthi
9th 71% 26% Jan Schakowsky
10th 61% 35% Brad Schneider
11th 55% 42% Bill Foster
12th 25% 72% Mike Bost
13th 53% 44% Nikki Budzinski
14th 52% 45% Lauren Underwood
15th 29% 69% Mary Miller
16th 37% 60% Darin LaHood
17th 49% 48% Cheri Bustos (117th Congress)
Eric Sorensen (118th Congress)

Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Johnson with 1%, Smith with <1%
  4. ^ Johnson with 2%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  8. ^ "Other" with 0%; "None" with 4%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by People Who Play by the Rules PAC, which supports Bailey
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Sullivan's campaign
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Irvin's campaign
  4. ^ a b Poll conducted for an undisclosed client
  5. ^ a b Poll conducted for Bailey's campaign.

References

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  73. ^ a b "G-PAC and Giffords PAC Endorse Governor Pritzker and Lt. Governor Stratton". gpaillinois.com. September 27, 2022. Retrieved October 18, 2022.
  74. ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Governor J.B. Pritzker and Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton of Illinois for Reelection". August 17, 2022.
  75. ^ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  76. ^ "Illinois - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Archived from the original on October 30, 2022. Retrieved October 30, 2022.
  77. ^ "Editorial: We endorse J.B. Pritzker for Illinois governor". Chicago Tribune. October 11, 2022.
  78. ^ "Pritzker Endorsed for Illinois Governor". enewspf.com. October 18, 2022. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
  79. ^ "Editorial: We endorse J.B. Pritzker for Illinois governor". Archived from the original on October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 13, 2022.
  80. ^ "Gabbard Will Appear at Glen Ellyn Event for Bailey". Daily Herald. October 28, 2022. Retrieved October 30, 2022.
  81. ^ "IL Republicans rally around GOP gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey with focus on November election". July 22, 2022.
  82. ^ "Darren Bailey's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 19, 2022.
  83. ^ "DARREN BAILEY, ILLINOIS GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE FOR GOP, RECEIVES FOP ENDORSEMENT". www.abc7chicago.com. August 8, 2022. Retrieved October 19, 2022.
  84. ^ "2022 General Election Results". Archived from the original on January 28, 2021. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  85. ^ @NapervillePol (December 23, 2022). "Since the Illinois State Board of Election released the precincts I managed to calculate how statewide candidates in each congressional districts. Here's map for governor" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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Official campaign websites
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