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Claims of Vladimir Putin's incapacity and death

(Redirected from Predictions of Vladimir Putin's death or incapacity)

Speculations regarding the health of Vladimir Putin have been a regular occurrence since his rise to power. They include conjecture about severe and potentially terminal medical issues. This is largely speculation and cannot be accredited for authenticity.

Background

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Further information: Public image of Vladimir Putin

For approximately 20 years, multiple sources have regularly reported that the president of Russia Vladimir Putin is weeks or months away from death or medical incapacity.[1] At various points, it has been rumored that he is suffering from terminal thyroid cancer, blood cancer, abdominal cancer, Parkinson's disease, leprosy, serious surgery complications, the aftereffects of a stroke, or that he is, in fact, already dead.[2][3][1]

According to the New Statesman, many such allegations are based on "the old Soviet-era practice of Kremlinology, in which analysts scrutinise the leader's public appearances for signs of physical decline and clues as to who might be in favour or out, in the absence of reliable information".[3]

Selected reports

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2005 report of stroke

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In 2005, The Atlantic published an essay, based on observation of film footage, alleging Putin had suffered a stroke and was dying.[1][4]

2014 report of cancer

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It was reported according to an unnamed German doctor, that Putin was receiving treatment for an "often terminal form of cancer".[5] Russian government spokesman Dmitri Peskov denied the claim.[5]

2015 report of cosmetic surgery complications

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Mainstream media outlets in the United States reported that Vladimir Putin might be seriously ill due to complications from a secret cosmetic surgery procedure it was claimed he'd undergone.[6] The rumors originated after the Russian president postponed a scheduled meeting from 11 to 18 March, as well as analysis of background objects in official photographs by Russia observers.[6]

Vox reported that "the idea that Putin would schedule plastic surgery for a week when he was supposed to have multiple public meetings seems highly implausible" and Russian government spokesman Dmitri Peskov denied Putin was suffering any type of medical issues.[6] Asked to comment on the report Putin was dying of surgery complications, the Brookings Institution's Hannah Thoburn said "for all we know, he probably has the flu, or just wanted to hang out with his daughters or something".[6] Russian television later aired footage of Putin attending a separate meeting on 13 March.[6]

2017 and 2020 reports of leprosy and Parkinson's disease

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In 2017, Valery Solovei asserted Vladimir Putin was about to resign for health-related reasons.[1] Putin did not resign.[1] In 2020, Solovei and others variously claimed that Putin had cancer, Parkinson's disease or leprosy and would imminently resign, a claim which also did not transpire.[1]

2022 reports of multiple illnesses

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Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to The New York Times, rumors of Putin being seriously ill became "a subject of lurid speculation, internet video forensics, and potential wartime propaganda, even though U.S. officials say there is no evidence the Russian leader is dying".[7]

In May 2022, Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov reported that Vladimir Putin was simultaneously suffering from "several serious illnesses, one of which is cancer".[8] Christopher Steele also alleged Putin was "dying".[1]

The New Statesman reported there was "no verifiable evidence that Putin is seriously ill"; Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov denied the allegation; William Burns, the director of the United States Central Intelligence Agency said "as far as we can tell, he's entirely too healthy"; and Richard Moore, the head of MI6 said there "is no evidence that Putin is suffering from serious illness".[2] [8][9][3]

On 28 May 2022 the Daily Star even speculated that Putin might have already died of blood cancer.[3] The Sunday Mirror published its own story the next day also reporting that Putin may have been dead.[3]

In July 2022, the Toronto Sun and other media outlets reported Putin had lost use of his right arm due to an unexplained medical crisis. The Toronto Sun cited, as evidence of the allegation, that a video showed Putin swatting a mosquito with his left arm instead of his right.[10]

Neurologists have previously noted that several Russian officials such as Anatoly Sidorov and Sergei Ivanov who, like Putin, have specialized training by Soviet-era military and intelligence services and typically make limited use of their right arm, often holding it unnaturally stiff to the side of the torso in what is called gunslinger's gait.[11] A 2015 study by Dutch physicians published in the British Medical Journal which compared video of the various officials against body movement instructions in a KGB training manual, suggested this was a learned behavioral adaptation to allow quick access to a firearm in response to a sudden threat and probably not a signifier of any medical condition in either Putin or other Russian political leaders.[12]

In December 2022, Russian historian and political analyst Valery Solovei announced Putin was being treated with cancer drugs for an unspecified, advanced stage cancer and "the end is already in sight".[13] Several years prior, in 2017, Solovei suggested that Putin might resign due to ill health.[1]

January 2023 claim by Zelenskyy

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In January 2023, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly "questioned whether Vladimir Putin was still alive" during a virtual address to the World Economic Forum and suggested that Putin might have already been replaced by his body double.[14]

October 2023 claims of death

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In October 2023, Russian Telegram channel "General [of] SVR" and Solovei said that Putin had died on 26 October from complications of cancer. According to Solovei, a body double was successfully used to replace the real Putin in many public activities and meetings during the last several months.[15][16] Earlier, the Kremlin denied media reports which claimed Putin was suffering from a serious illness, citing "General SVR".[17][18]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Lautman, Olga (6 June 2022). "The Many Deaths of Vladimir Putin". Centre for European Policy Analysis. Archived from the original on 7 January 2023. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  2. ^ a b Javaid, Maham (21 July 2022). "Putin is 'entirely too healthy,' the C.I.A. director says". New York Times. Archived from the original on 22 July 2022. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  3. ^ a b c d e Stallard, Katie (2 June 2022). "Is Vladimir Putin dead?". New Statesman. Archived from the original on 6 March 2023. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  4. ^ Starobin, Paul (March 2005). "The Accidental Autocrat". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on 13 February 2014. Retrieved 9 March 2023.
  5. ^ a b Selby, Jenn (31 October 2014). "Vladimir Putin cancer reports: Kremlin rep furiously dismisses speculation over Russian leader's health, tells media to 'bite your tongue'". The Independent. Archived from the original on 25 February 2022. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  6. ^ a b c d e Taub, Amanda (12 March 2015). "The very scary reality behind the silly rumors of Putin's death". Vox. Archived from the original on 1 December 2022. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  7. ^ Crowley, Michael (26 April 2023). "Documents Reflect Persistent, if Unfounded, Speculation on Putin's Health". New York Times. Retrieved 14 August 2023.
  8. ^ a b Roth, Andrew (30 May 2022). "Rumours continue about Putin's health – with little to back them up". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 30 May 2022. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  9. ^ Meuller, Julia (21 July 2022). "CIA director dismisses reports of Putin being in ill health". The Hill. Archived from the original on 1 October 2022. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  10. ^ "Vladimir Putin caught on camera unable to use right arm". Toronto Sun. 31 July 2022. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  11. ^ Fox, Maggie (15 December 2015). "Why Does Vladimir Putin Walk Like That?". NBC News. Archived from the original on 16 November 2022. Retrieved 1 August 2022.
  12. ^ Araújo, Rui; Ferreira, Joaquim J.; Antonini, Angelo; Bloem, Bastiaan R. (2015). ""Gunslinger's gait": a new cause of unilaterally reduced arm swing". British Medical Journal. 351: h6141. doi:10.1136/bmj.h6141. PMC 4678175. PMID 26666758.
  13. ^ Keane, Isabel (26 December 2022). "Vladimir Putin is being kept alive on cancer drugs to continue Ukraine war, report claims". news.com.au. Retrieved 24 June 2023.
  14. ^ Hall, Andy (19 January 2023). "Zelenskiy questions whether Putin is dead or alive". Diario AS. Retrieved 24 June 2023.
  15. ^ J. Motyl, Alexander (31 October 2023). "Reports of Putin's death might not be greatly exaggerated". The Hill. Retrieved 28 November 2023.
  16. ^ Gordon, Dmitry (28 October 2023), "Соловей. Где Путина и его сына лечили от рака, Патрушев во главе России, будущее двойника и Кабаевой" [Solovei. Where Putin and his son were treated for cancer, Patrushev at the head of Russia, the future of the double and Kabaeva], Visiting Gordon, YouTube, retrieved 28 November 2023
  17. ^ Murphy, Michael (24 October 2023). "Vladimir Putin has not suffered a heart attack and is not using body doubles, says Moscow". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 25 October 2023.
  18. ^ Roush, Ty (24 October 2023). "Kremlin Denies Rumors Of Putin Body Double Amid Heart Attack Claims". Forbes. Retrieved 25 October 2023.
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