Opinion polling for the 2023 Serbian parliamentary election
(Redirected from Opinion polling for the next Serbian parliamentary election)
In the run-up to the 2023 Serbian parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Serbia. The results of such polls are displayed in this list. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous election, held on 3 April 2022, to the 2023 election, which was held on 17 December 2023.[1]
Graphical summary
edit
Poll results
edit2023
edit| Polling firm | Date of publication | Sample size | SNS–led coalition |
SPS–JS | SPN | NADA | NO | Narodna | Others | Lead | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSP | PSG | DS | Together | SRCE | NDB/ZLF | EU[a] | NPS[b] | NDSS | POKS | Dveri | SSZ | |||||||||||
| 2023 election | 17 December | – | 48.0 | 6.7 | 24.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 11.9[c] | 23.8 | ||||||||||||
| Ipsos[2][d] | 14 December | 3,712 | 44.6 | 8.7 | 23.6 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 10.8[e] | 21.0 | ||||||||||||
| OFID[3] | 14 December | 1,200 | 38.7 | 8.9 | 27.1 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 12.6[f] | 11.6 | ||||||||||||
| NSPM[4] | 12 December | 1,000 | 39.8 | 8.9 | 25.6 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 10.5[g] | 14.2 | ||||||||||||
| NSPM[5] | 15 November | 1,000 | 39.2 | 8.1 | 25.8 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 14.2[h] | 13.4 | ||||||||||||
| NSPM[6] | 22 October | 1,000 | 38.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.1 | – | 3.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.3[i] | 16.3[j] | 28.9 | ||||||
| Faktor Plus[7] | 13 October | 1,200 | 44.5 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 3.5[k] | 34.5 | |||||
| Stata[8] | 13 October | 1,546 | 36.6 | 7.0 | 8.6 | – | – | – | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | – | 3.9 | 3.4 | – | 18.1[l] | 28.0 | |||
| NSPM[9] | 28 September | 1,000 | 37.3 | 9.5 | 4.2 | – | 2.4 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.6 | – | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 21.9[m] | 27.7 | |||
| Stata[10] | 19 September | 1,580 | 36.3 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | – | 2.6 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 18.8[n] | 26.5 | |||
| Stata[11][12] | 28 July | 1,558 | 37.8 | 8.0 | 9.6 | – | – | 6.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | – | – | 3.6 | – | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 18.8[o] | 28.2 | |||
| NSPM[13] | 23 July | 1,100 | 37.2 | 9.4 | 4.0 | – | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.4 | – | 4.2 | – | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 21.7[p] | 27.8 | |||
| NSPM[14] | 2 June | 1,000 | 36.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | – | 2.6 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 4.3 | – | 4.6 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 21.3[q] | 27.8 | |||
| NSPM[15] | 27 April | 1,000 | 38.0 | 9.4 | 4.2 | – | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.9 | – | 3.8 | – | 4.4 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 20.5[r] | 28.6 | |||
| Faktor Plus[16] | 11 April | ? | 45.5 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | – | – | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 11.0[s] | 34.8 | ||||
| ŠSM[17] | 5 April | 1,329 | 42.8 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 3.2 | – | – | 5.2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 13.0[t] | 31.9 | |||
| ŠSM[18] | 22 February | ? | 44.5 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | – | – | 3.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 11.8[u] | 35.6 | |||
| NSPM[19] | 14 February | 1,050 | 39.1 | 10.0 | 4.7 | – | 2.2 | – | 5.2 | 1.6 | 3.7 | – | 5.4 | – | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 17.6[v] | 29.1 | |||
| Faktor Plus[20] | 13 February | 1,100 | 46.0 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | – | – | 4.7 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 10.3[w] | 35.2 | ||||
2022
edit| Polling firm | Date of publication | Sample size | SNS–led coalition |
SSP | Narodna | DS | PSG | SPS–JS | NADA | NDB | Together | Dveri | SSZ | SRCE | Others | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDSS | POKS | ||||||||||||||||
| Faktor Plus[21] | 12 December | ? | 46.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 11.0[x] | 32.7 | |
| NSPM[22] | 1 November | 1,050 | 42.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | – | 9.8 | 5.5 | – | 1.2 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 15.8[y] | 32.7 |
| Faktor Plus[23] | 25 October | ? | 46.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 4.0 | – | 8.9[z] | 32.0 | |
| NSPM[24] | 27 July | 1,000 | 42.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 6.1 | – | – | 4.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 14.3[aa] | 33.2 |
| Demostat[25] | 29 June | 1,203 | 48.0 | 10.0 | – | 3.0 | – | 9.0 | 6.0 | – | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | – | 13.0 | 38.0 | |
| 2022 election | 3 April | – | 44.2 | 14.0 | 11.7 | 5.5[ab] | 4.8 | 3.9[ac] | 3.8 | – | 11.7 | 30.2 | |||||
Scenario polls
editThree alliances
editIn July 2023, Stata conducted a scenario opinion poll. It showed that a potential coalition of SNS, SPS, JS, Social Democratic Party of Serbia, Party of United Pensioners of Serbia, and Movement of Socialists would win 44 percent of the popular vote, while a hypothetical alliance of those who organised the Serbia Against Violence protests, which includes SSP, Narodna, DS, PSG, ZLF, and Together, would win 41 percent of the popular vote.[29] Stata conducted another scenario polls in September and October 2023, this time with Narodna being in the "state-building opposition" bloc.[10] CRTA, however, only polled Dveri, SSZ, NDSS, and POKS as part of the "patriotic bloc".[30]
| Polling firm | Date of publication | Sample size | SNS–led coalition |
SPN | State-building opposition[ad] | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRTA[30] | 16 October | 1,544 | 49.0 | 41.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 |
| Stata[8] | 13 October | 1,546 | 43.0 | 39.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| Stata[10] | 19 September | 1,580 | 44.0 | 38.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| Stata[29] | 28 July | 1,558 | 44.0 | 41.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 |
Six alliances
editNova srpska politička misao (NSPM) conducted an opinion poll in October 2023 in which they polled 6 alliances of parties.[6]
| Polling firm | Date of publication | Sample size | PZS[ae] | Patriotic Bloc[af] | DS–Together–SRCE | PE–ZLF | NPS–EU–NLS | NADA | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSPM[6] | 22 October | 1,000 | 48.4 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 11.6[ag] | 38.3 |
Notes
edit- ^ Was part of Together until September 2023.
- ^ Split from the People's Party (Narodna) in August 2023.
- ^ MI-GIN: 4.8%, VMSZ: 1.7%, SRS: 1.5%, DJS: 1.2%, SPP–DSHV: 0.8%, SDAS: 0.6%, PBASN: 0.4%, RS–NKPJ: 0.3%, LDP: 0.2%, KZMT: 0.2%, Nova–D2SP–GDF–Libdem–Glas: 0.1%, APN: 0.1%
- ^ Poll commissioned on the orders of SNS.[2]
- ^ Mi–GiN: 4.4%, DJS: 2.1%, VMSZ: 1.4%, SRS: 1.0%, SPP–DSHV: 0.7%, SDAS: 0.3%, MD: 0.3%, PBASN: 0.2%, RS: 0.2%, SNZ: 0.1%, ADA: 0.1%, KZMT: 0.0%
- ^ Mi–GIN: 2.8%, DJS: 2.4%, SRS: 1.7%, VMSZ/SVM: 1.6%, Others: 4.1%
- ^ Mi–GIN: 2.3%, DJS: 2.2%, SRS: 1.5%, VMSZ/SVM: 1.5%, SPP–DSHV: 1.2%, Others: 1.8%
- ^ DJS: 2.5%, Others: 3.3%, while 8.4% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
- ^ Including Enough is Enough (DJB)
- ^ ZS: 1.4%, Others: 5.8%, while 9.1% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
- ^ SRS: 1.5%; SDS: 1.0%; PEP: 1.0%
- ^ Minority parties: 4.3%, Others: 11.0%, Undecided: 2.8%
- ^ SDS: 1.4%, SRS: 1.2%, Others: 4%, while 15.3% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
- ^ PEP: 2.5%, SDS: 1.5%, SRS: 1.2%, Minority parties: 4.2%, Others: 0.7%, Undecided: 6.4%
- ^ PEP: 1.9%, Others: 16.9%
- ^ SDS: 1.6%, SRS: 1.5%, Others: 3.6%, while 15.0% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
- ^ SDS: 2.0%, SRS: 1.2%, Others: 3.1%, while 15.0% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
- ^ SRS: 1.4%, SDS: 1.5%, Others: 4.4%, while 13.2% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
- ^ SRS: 2.0%, SDS: 1.8%, Minority parties: 4.0%, Others: 3.2%
- ^ DJB: 2.9%, SRS: 1.5%, VMSZ/SVM: 1.5%, SDS: 1.1%, LSV: 0.8%, SPP: 0.8%, SDAS: 0.6%, GDF: 0.3%, ZS: 0.2%, Minority parties: 1.0%, Blank vote: 2.5%
- ^ DJB: 1.9%, VMSZ/SVM: 1.4%, SRS: 1.3%, SDS: 1.2%, SPP: 0.8%, LSV: 0.8%, SDAS: 0.5%, GDF: 0.4%, ZS: 0.3%, LDP: 0.03%, Minority parties: 0.9%, Blank votes: 2.3%
- ^ SRS: 2.1%, SDS: 1.5%, Others: 5.0%, while 9.0% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
- ^ SDS: 2.1%, SRS: 2.0%, Minority parties: 3.2%, Others: 3.0%
- ^ SDS: 1.8%, DJB: 1.0%, SRS: 1.0%
- ^ SRS: 2.2%, SDS: 1.5%, while 7.9% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
- ^ SDS: 1.5%, SRS: 1.5%, DJB: 1.3%, Others: 4.6%
- ^ SDS: 2.0%, while 7.9% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
- ^ DSS took part with Vojislav Mihailović-led faction of POKS in the 2022 parliamentary election.[26] Mihailović was legally recognised as the president of POKS in July 2022.[27]
- ^ Dveri took part with Žika Gojković-led faction of POKS in the 2022 parliamentary election.[28]
- ^ Including National Democratic Alternative, Dveri, and Serbian Party Oathkeepers in polls from July 2023 onwards. Including the People's Party in Stata polls only from September 2023 onwards.
- ^ Including the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), United Serbia (JS), and Serbian Radical Party (SRS)
- ^ Including the Serbian Party Oathkeepers (SSZ), Dveri, People's Party (Narodna), and Enough is Enough (DJB)
- ^ Others: 4.1%, while 7.5% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
References
edit- ^ "Serbia: National Assembly". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Archived from the original on 31 December 2022. Retrieved 31 December 2022.
- ^ a b "Procene rezultata parlamentarnih izbora 2023. godine" (PDF). Ipsos. 14 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
- ^ "Poslednje veliko istraživanje pred izbore: Beograd u rukama opozicije, SNS i SPS nemaju dovoljno da zajedno formiraju većinu u parlamentu". NOVA portal (in Serbian). 14 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
- ^ "Predizborna Srbija". Nova srpska politička misao (in Serbian). 12 December 2023. Retrieved 12 December 2023.
- ^ "Srbija, novembar 2023. – SNS 39,2 odsto, "Srbija protiv nasilja" 25.8". Nova srpska politička misao (in Serbian). 15 November 2023. Retrieved 15 November 2023.
- ^ a b c "Srbija, oktobar 2023". Nova srpska politička misao (in Serbian). 22 October 2023. Retrieved 22 October 2023.
- ^ "64 DANA DO IZBORA, EVO NAJNOVIJIH REJTINGA Ubedljivo najjača SNS, raste krajnja desnica, građanska opozicija iscepkana". Blic (in Serbian). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 13 October 2023.
- ^ a b "Kako stoje SNS i SPS, a kako opozicija: Rezultat istraživanja o rejtinzima stranaka". Danas (in Serbian). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 13 October 2023.
- ^ "Srbija, avgust 2023". Nova srpska politička misao (in Serbian). 28 September 2023. Retrieved 28 September 2023.
- ^ a b c "Istraživanje javnog mnjenja: Koliko bi građana glasalo za vlast, koliko za organizatore protesta" (in Serbian). N1. 19 September 2023. Retrieved 19 September 2023.
- ^ "Opoziciji podrška raste, SNS i SPS u padu". NOVA portal (in Serbian). 29 July 2023. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
- ^ "Više od polovine građana Srbije podržava raspisivanje izbora". Vreme (in Serbian). 28 July 2023. Retrieved 29 July 2023.
- ^ "Srbija, leto 2023". Nova srpska politička misao (in Serbian). 23 July 2023. Archived from the original on 24 July 2023. Retrieved 24 July 2023.
- ^ "Srbija, maj 2023 – EU, francusko-nemački sporazum i rejtinzi". Nova srpska politička misao (in Serbian). 2 June 2023. Archived from the original on 3 June 2023. Retrieved 3 June 2023.
- ^ "Novo istraživanje NSPM: Mali pad SNS, stranke opozicije preko cenzusa". Danas (in Serbian). 27 April 2023. Archived from the original on 27 April 2023. Retrieved 27 April 2023.
- ^ Tašković, Marko (11 April 2023). "Za koga bi građani Srbije danas glasali i šta misle o EU: Najnovije istraživanje Faktor plusa". Blic (in Serbian). Retrieved 11 April 2023.
- ^ "Spoljnopolitičko opredeljenje Srbije" (in Serbian). Šta Srbija misli?. 5 April 2023. Archived from the original on 5 April 2023. Retrieved 7 April 2023.
- ^ "Međunarodna politička situacija i javno mnjenje u Srbiji" (in Serbian). Šta Srbija misli?. 22 February 2023. Archived from the original on 22 February 2023. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
- ^ "Srbija januar 2023 – SNS na 39.1 odsto. Za ulazak Srbije u EU 35,5%, protiv 47,7%. Protiv sankcija Rusiji 80,1% odsto građana, a podržava 8,2 odsto". Nova srpska politička misao (in Serbian). 14 February 2023. Archived from the original on 14 February 2023. Retrieved 14 February 2023.
- ^ "SRBI HOĆE SPORAZUM O KOSOVU, ALI NE I PONIŽENJE Novo istraživanje "Faktora plus": Evo koliko bi građana potpisalo priznanje južne pokrajine". Blic (in Serbian). 13 February 2023. Archived from the original on 13 February 2023. Retrieved 13 February 2023.
- ^ "SNS i dalje najpopularniji, desnica u blagom padu: Najnovije istraživanje agencije "Faktor plus": Evo kolika bi bila izlaznost da su izbori danas". Blic (in Serbian). 12 December 2022. Archived from the original on 20 December 2022. Retrieved 10 January 2023.
- ^ "Predstavljeni rezultati istraživanja NSPM "Srbija – jesen 2022": Đorđe Vukadinović – Razlika između pristalica i protivnika ulaska u EU porasla na 14 odsto u korist evroskeptika. Nacionalne i "desne" stranke u porastu" (in Serbian). Nova srpska politička misao. 3 November 2022. Archived from the original on 12 December 2022. Retrieved 10 January 2023.
- ^ "SNS na 46,3 odsto, desnica u porastu: najnovije istraživanje "Faktor plusa" pokazalo i ovo: Neko treba da popuni prazninu nastalu u "proevropskoj" opoziciji!". Blic (in Serbian). 25 October 2022. Archived from the original on 6 November 2022. Retrieved 10 January 2023.
- ^ "Srbija, leto 2022. – protivljenje uvođenju sankcija Rusiji porsalo sa 82,2 na 84 odsto. Članstvo srbije u NATO podržava 4,3 odsto, a protivi mu se 88,1 odsto" (in Serbian). Nova srpska politička misao. 27 July 2022. Archived from the original on 8 November 2022. Retrieved 10 January 2023.
- ^ "Istraživanje Demostata: spoljno-političke orijentacije građana Srbije" (PDF) (in Serbian). Demostat. 29 June 2022. p. 22. Archived from the original (PDF) on 21 September 2022. Retrieved 10 January 2023.
- ^ "POKS izlazi na izbore sa DSS-om". Radio Television of Serbia (in Serbian). 14 February 2022. Archived from the original on 14 February 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
- ^ "Vojislav Mihailović dobio ekskluzivno pravo na korišćenje imena POKS". Danas (in Serbian). 1 August 2022. Archived from the original on 19 August 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
- ^ "Dveri i Gojković POKS predali RIK-u listu za parlamentarne izbore". N1 (in Serbian). 22 February 2022. Archived from the original on 13 February 2023. Retrieved 13 February 2023.
- ^ a b "Istraživanje: Lista oko SNS 44 odsto, koalicija Srbija protiv nasilja 41 odsto". N1 (in Serbian). 28 July 2023. Archived from the original on 28 July 2023. Retrieved 29 July 2023.
- ^ a b "Stavovi građana Srbije i Beograda" [Stances of citizens of Serbia and Belgrade] (PDF). CRTA (in Serbian). 16 October 2023. p. 2, 9. Retrieved 16 October 2023.