Wikipedia

2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska

(Redirected from Nick Begich III)

Not to be confused with 2024 Alaska House of Representatives election.

The 2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska from its at-large congressional district. The election will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House, elections to the United States Senate, and various other state and local elections.

2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district
← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
Reporting
76%
as of Nov. 6, 3:12 PM AKST
 
Candidate Mary Peltola Nick Begich III
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 114,511 124,969
Percentage 45.4% 49.5%
State house district results
U.S. Representative before election

Mary Peltola
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

TBD

Incumbent Democratic representative Mary Peltola won a full term in November 2022 after the August 2022 special election triggered by the death of Don Young[1] and is running for her second full term.[2] Her Republican challenger is Nick Begich III.

After the 2022 special election and the general election later that year, the race was the third using the ranked-choice voting (RCV) rule enacted by Alaska's Measure 2.

The primary election was held on August 20, 2024,[3] with candidates Mary Peltola, Nick Begich III, and Nancy Dahlstrom emerging as the main candidates. After placing third, Dahlstrom withdrew from the race to avoid another spoiled election like the 2022 special, resulting in a traditional two-party race.[4][5][6]

Candidates

edit

Democratic Party

edit

Advanced to general

edit
  • Mary Peltola, incumbent U.S. representative[2]
  • Eric Hafner, federal prisoner and perennial candidate[7]

Republican Party

edit

Advanced to general

edit

Withdrew after advancing to general

edit

Eliminated in primary

edit
  • Gerald Heikes, drywall contractor and perennial candidate[11]

No Labels

edit

Eliminated in primary

edit

Alaskan Independence Party

edit

Advanced to general

edit

Independents

edit

Eliminated in primary

edit
  • David Ambrose[10]
  • Samuel Claesson, author[13]
  • Lady Donna Dutchess, notary, candlemaker, and candidate for U.S. House in 2022[14]
  • Richard Mayers[10]

Primary election

edit

Endorsements

edit
Nick Begich III (R)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Nancy Dahlstrom (R)
U.S. Presidents
Governors
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
U.S. senators
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

edit
Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mary Peltola (D) $7,541,673 $5,396,920 $2,836,013
Nick Begich III (R) $982,905 $851,591 $172,548
Nancy Dahlstrom (R) $912,308 $912,308 $317,617
Source: Federal Election Commission[43]

Polling

edit

Top four primary

edit
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Nick
Begich (R) 		Nancy
Dahlstrom (R) 		Mary
Peltola (D) 		Other Undecided
Data for Progress (D) February 23 – March 4, 2024 1,120 (LV) ± 3.0% 35% 10% 44% 2%[b] 8%
Remington Research (R)[A] December 11–14, 2023 672 (LV) ± 4.0% 28% 9% 42% 11%

Results

edit
 
Results by state house district:
  Peltola—70–80%
  Peltola—60–70%
  Peltola—50–60%
  Peltola—40–50%
  Peltola—30–40%
  Begich—30–40%
  Begich—40–50%

Peltola performed well in the primary, securing slightly more than 50% of the vote. She received the plurality of the vote in 33 out of 40 Alaska House of Representatives districts.[44] Her top three districts were the fourth district in Southeast Alaska (79.5% of the vote) as well as the 17th and the 19th districts located in Anchorage (75.3% and 71.0% of the vote respectively).

Blanket primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Peltola (incumbent) 55,166 50.9
Republican Nick Begich III 28,803 26.6
Republican Nancy Dahlstrom (withdrew) 21,574 19.9
Republican Matthew Salisbury (withdrew) 652 0.6
Independence John Wayne Howe 621 0.6
Democratic Eric Hafner 467 0.4
Republican Gerald Heikes 424 0.4
Independent Lady Donna Dutchess 195 0.2
Independent David Ambrose 154 0.1
No Labels Richard Grayson 143 0.1
Independent Richard Mayers 119 0.1
Independent Samuel Claesson 89 0.1
Total votes 108,407 100.00

General election

edit

On August 23, Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew from the general election.[46] Despite initially stating he had no plans to withdraw, Matthew Salisbury also dropped out of the race.[47][48] They were replaced by fifth-place finisher John Wayne Howe of the Alaskan Independence Party and six-place finisher Eric Hafner, a Democrat.[48] Hafner remained on the ballot even though he has never been to Alaska, and was serving a 20 year sentence in a federal penetentary in New York.[49] The Alaska Democratic Party sued to remove Hafner from the general election ballot, but an Anchorage Superior Court judge dismissed the lawsuit. The party appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court, who upheld the lower court's decision, keeping Hafner on the ballot.[50]

Post-primary endorsements

edit
Mary Peltola (D)
Statewide officials
Organizations
Nick Begich III (R)
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
Organizations

Predictions

edit
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[66] Tossup September 6, 2024
Inside Elections[67] Tilt R (flip) October 31, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
Elections Daily[69] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
CNalysis[70] Tilt D November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ[71] Tossup October 22, 2024

Polling

edit
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mary
Peltola (D) 		Nick
Begich (R) 		Other Undecided
American Viewpoint (R)[B] September 14 – 17, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 40% 44% 6%[d] 10%
Cygnal (R)[C] August 30 – September 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 45% – 9%
American Viewpoint (R)[B] Late August 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 39% – 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		RCV
round 		Mary
Peltola (D) 		Nick
Begich (R) 		John
Wayne Howe (AIP) 		Eric
Hafner (D)
Cygnal (R)[C] October 14–16, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9%
1 44.5% 49.1% 4.0% 2.4%
2 45.5% 49.6% 4.8% Elim
3 47.9% 52.1% Elim Elim
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		RCV
round 		Mary
Peltola (D) 		Nick
Begich (R) 		Nancy
Dahlstrom (R) 		Chris
Bye (L)
Data for Progress (D) February 23 – March 2, 2024 1,120 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 47% 39% 12% 3%
2 48% 41% 12% Elim
3 50% 50% Elim Elim

Debates and forums

edit
2024 Alaska U.S. House of Representatives debates and forums
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Independence Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Peltola Begich Howe Hafner
1[72] Aug. 28, 2024 Alaska Oil and Gas Association Michelle Egan YouTube P P N N
2[73] Oct. 8, 2024 Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM) Terry Haines YouTube P P P N
3[74] Oct. 10, 2024 Alaska Chamber of Commerce P P N N
4 Oct. 10, 2024 Alaska Public Media
KTUU-TV 		Rebecca Palsha
Lori Townsend 		YouTube P P N N

Results

edit
2024 Alaska's at-large congressional district election[75]
Party Candidate First choice
Votes % Transfer
Republican Nick Begich 124,969 49.5%
Democratic Mary Peltola (incumbent) 114,511 45.4%
Independence John Wayne Howe 9,791 3.9%
Democratic Eric Hafner 2,485 1.0%
Write-in 554 0.2%
Total votes 252,310 100.0%
Inactive ballots

Notes

edit
  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Chris Bye (L) with 2%
  3. ^ Numbered as the 4th from 2013–2019
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Begich's campaign
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the NRCC
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Begich's campaign and the NRCC

References

edit
  1. ^ "State of Alaska 2022 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022.
  2. ^ a b Fortinsky, Sarah (November 14, 2023). "Alaska's GOP lieutenant governor joins race against Dem Rep. Mary Peltola". The Hill. Retrieved November 25, 2023. Peltola officially launched her 2024 reelection bid the following month.
  3. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Calendar - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  4. ^ Drutman, Lee (September 12, 2024). "We need more (and better) parties". Undercurrent Events. Retrieved September 20, 2024.
  5. ^ Strassel, Kimberly A. (August 27, 2024). "Ranked Choice May Die in Alaska". The Wall Street Journal.
  6. ^ Early, Wesley (September 5, 2024). "Why candidates are withdrawing from Alaska's general election". Alaska Public Media. Anchorage, Alaska: NPR. Retrieved September 20, 2024.
  7. ^ Brooks, James (September 4, 2024). "Alaska Democrats sue to remove imprisoned out-of-state Democrat from U.S. House ballot". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  8. ^ Bazail-Eimil, Eric (July 13, 2023). "Nick Begich challenging Peltola for House seat in Alaska". POLITICO. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  9. ^ Maguire, Sean (August 23, 2024). "Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom drops out of U.S. House race". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  10. ^ a b c d "2024 PRIMARY ELECTION - Candidates". Alaska Secretary of State. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
  11. ^ "2024 PRIMARY ELECTION - Candidates". Alaska Secretary of State. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
  12. ^ Winger, Richard (September 28, 2023). "Alaska U.S. House Candidate for 2024 with 'No Labels' Qualifies for August 2024 Primary Ballot". Ballot Access News. Retrieved October 6, 2023.
  13. ^ Samuels, Iris (June 2, 2024). "Alaska's candidate lists for legislative and congressional races are set after Saturday's deadline". Alaska Daily News. Retrieved September 12, 2024.
  14. ^ Jarrett, Kim (November 14, 2023). "Alaska's lieutenant governor announces bid for Congress". The Center Square. Retrieved November 14, 2023.
  15. ^ Downing, Suzanne (May 16, 2024). "Utah Senator Mike Lee endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  16. ^ Downing, Suzanne (January 29, 2024). "Congressional candidate Nick Begich picks up big endorsement: Congressman Byron Donalds". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
  17. ^ Downing, Suzanne (February 15, 2024). "Vivek Ramaswamy endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  18. ^ a b Downing, Suzanne (August 4, 2023). "Nick Begich starts stacking up endorsements for Congress '24". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  19. ^ "Big Win and Nine New Endorsements". House Freedom Fund. May 8, 2024. Retrieved May 8, 2024.
  20. ^ "Trump endorses Dahlstrom for Congress". June 17, 2024.
  21. ^ "Governor Mike Dunleavy Endorses Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom for Congress". Alaska Native News. February 5, 2024. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  22. ^ a b Samuels, Iris (February 8, 2024). "Dahlstrom ahead of Begich but far behind Peltola in fundraising for U.S. House campaign". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved February 15, 2024. Dahlstrom has already garnered endorsements from House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik
  23. ^ Schilke, Rachel (April 3, 2024). "Johnson-linked PAC releases first slate of 'trailblazer' House endorsements - Washington Examiner". Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  24. ^ Brooks, Emily (July 29, 2024). "House GOP campaign arm releases slate of 26 'Young Gun' competitive candidates". The Hill. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
  25. ^ Downing, Suzanne (March 30, 2024). "Murkowski won't endorse Bronson for mayor, but endorses mail-in elections in Anchorage". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  26. ^ "ASEA/AFSCME Local 52 - PAC 2024 Primary Election Endorsements". www.afscmelocal52.org. Retrieved September 12, 2024.
  27. ^ report, Staff (June 23, 2024). "Peltola picks up major endorsement from labor union". Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  28. ^ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  29. ^ 959JkrinerAdmin (August 14, 2024). "Congresswoman Mary Peltola for U.S. Congress - Alaska Teamsters Union". Retrieved September 12, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  30. ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  31. ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  32. ^ "DMFI PAC Announces First Round of 2024 Endorsements for U.S. House". DMFI PAC. December 18, 2023. Archived from the original on December 18, 2023. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  33. ^ Ackley, Kate (March 15, 2023). "EMILY's List: These 18 Democrats are crucial to taking House control". Roll Call. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  34. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  35. ^ "JDCA ANNOUNCES KEY 2024 ENDORSEMENTS". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Archived from the original on November 6, 2023. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  36. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  37. ^ "Koniag Board of Directors Endorses Mary Peltola for U.S. Congress". Alaska Native News. March 16, 2024. Retrieved March 17, 2024.
  38. ^ Communications (June 21, 2023). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Launches 2024 Electoral Program with Endorsement of Frontline Incumbents for U.S. House of Representatives". NARAL Pro-Choice America. Archived from the original on June 21, 2023. Retrieved June 21, 2023.
  39. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  40. ^ Irwin, Lauren (August 1, 2024). "NRA issues rare endorsement of Democrat in backing Peltola". The Hill. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  41. ^ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Announces New Endorsement Slate for House in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
  42. ^ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left.
  43. ^ "2024 Election United States House - Alaska". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 16, 2023.
  44. ^ Waddick, Carrisa (August 21, 2024). "Mary Peltola tops ballot in Alaska House primary, poised for high-stakes November showdown". USA Today. Retrieved September 10, 2024.
  45. ^ "State of Alaska 2024 PRIMARY ELECTION Election Summary Report August 20, 2024 OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). State of Alaska. September 1, 2024. Retrieved September 1, 2024.
  46. ^ Maguire, Sean (August 23, 2024). "Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom drops out of U.S. House race". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  47. ^ Brooks, James (August 23, 2024). "Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom quits U.S. House race after finishing behind Peltola and Begich in the primary". Alaska Beacon.
  48. ^ a b Bengel, Alex (September 3, 2024). "Alaska candidates withdraw from November ballot, shuffling voter options". KTVF.
  49. ^ Darrell, Jack (September 3, 2024). "Eric Hafner advances to the AK US House ballot from federal prison". KRBD.
  50. ^ Brooks, James (September 13, 2024). "Alaska Supreme Court rejects Democrats' attempt to remove candidate from U.S. House ballot". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
  51. ^ "Fight Like Hell PAC". Fight Like Hell PAC. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  52. ^ Rickert, Levi (October 21, 2024). "Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski Endorses Reelection of Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  53. ^ Kitchenman, Andrew (October 19, 2024). "Alaska Federation of Natives endorses Peltola, opposes ranked choice repeal". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  54. ^ Irwin, Lauren (August 1, 2024). "NRA issues rare endorsement of Democrat in backing Peltola". The Hill. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  55. ^ Downing, Suzanne (September 18, 2024). "Breaking: Donald Trump endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  56. ^ Downing, Suzanne (September 17, 2024). "Breaking: Sen. Dan Sullivan endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  57. ^ a b c d e Downing, Suzanne (August 23, 2024). "Big endorsements for Nick Begich roll in: Five U.S. House Majority leaders and AK-GOP Chairwoman Carmela Warfield are 'all in'". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
  58. ^ Downing, Suzanne (August 29, 2024). "Big endorsement rolls in from Rep. Jim Jordan for Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved August 30, 2024.
  59. ^ Downing, Suzanne (August 28, 2024). "In the hunt for Alaska victory, Begich gets key House Natural Resources chairman's endorsement". Must Read Alaksa. Retrieved August 30, 2024.
  60. ^ Downing, Suzanne (September 3, 2024). "Gov. Dunleavy endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  61. ^ Downing, Suzanne (September 14, 2024). "Unanimous: Nick Begich gets endorsement of Alaska Republican Party". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  62. ^ "AFP Action Endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Americans for Prosperity Action. September 10, 2024. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  63. ^ Mitola, Will (September 4, 2024). "Club for Growth PAC Endorses Nick Begich In AK-AL". Club for Growth PAC. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  64. ^ Downing, Suzanne (October 7, 2024). "Go big: Nick Begich endorsed by Gun Owners of America". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved October 8, 2024.
  65. ^ "NFIB's FedPAC announced endorsement for Nick Begich". National Federation of Independent Business. October 24, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  66. ^ "2024 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
  67. ^ "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
  68. ^ Kondik, Kyle (September 19, 2024). "Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  69. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 26, 2024. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  70. ^ "2024 House Forecast". October 24, 2024. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  71. ^ "2024 House Forecast". May 28, 2024. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  72. ^ Kitchenman, Andrew (August 28, 2024). "U.S. House candidates seek Alaska oil and gas industry support in forum". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved October 9, 2024.
  73. ^ Brooks, James (October 9, 2024). "At U.S. House debate in Kodiak, candidates differ on future of Alaska fisheries". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved October 10, 2024.
  74. ^ Brooks, James (October 10, 2024). "In Fairbanks, Begich and Peltola offer sharply different views of federal spending in Alaska". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved October 12, 2024.
  75. ^ "Alaska At-Large Congressional District Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
edit
Official campaign sites
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska&oldid=1256082404"