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2024 United Kingdom general election

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The 2024 United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held on Thursday 4 July 2024.[1] It will determine the composition of the House of Commons, which determines the Government of the United Kingdom. Significant constituency boundary changes will be in effect, the first such changes since before the 2010 general election. In addition, it will be the first UK general election where physical forms of voter identification will be a legal requirement to vote at a polling station in Great Britain.[d]

2024 United Kingdom general election
United Kingdom
← 2019 4 July 2024
All 650 seats in the House of Commons
326 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Conservative Rishi Sunak 346
Labour Keir Starmer 205
Scottish National John Swinney[a] 43
Liberal Democrats Ed Davey 15
Democratic Unionist Gavin Robinson (interim) 7
Sinn Féin Michelle O'Neill 7
Plaid Cymru Rhun ap Iorwerth[b] 3
Social Democratic and Labour Colum Eastwood 2
Alba Alex Salmond[c] 2
Green Carla Denyer and
Adrian Ramsay 		1
Alliance Naomi Long 1
Workers Party George Galloway 1
Reform UK Richard Tice 1
Independent N/A 15
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Rishi Sunak
Conservative

The election will be the first since Brexit, the UK's departure from the European Union, which took place on 31 January 2020.

Background edit

The results of the 2019 general election are given below, alongside the current numbers in the House of Commons. Seat counts have changed through 23 by-elections and a number of defections and suspensions of members from their party that have taken place throughout the present parliament.

Affiliation Members
Elected in 2019[2] Current[3] Change
Conservative 365 346   19
Labour[e] 202 205   3
Scottish National 48 43   5
Liberal Democrats 11 15   4
Democratic Unionist 8 7   1
Sinn Féin 7 7  
Plaid Cymru 4 3   1
Social Democratic and Labour 2 2  
Alba N/A[f] 2[g]   2
Green 1 1  
Alliance 1 1  
Workers Party N/A[f] 1   1
Reform UK 0 1   1
Speaker 1 1  
Independent 0 15[h]   15
Total 650 650  
Voting total[i] 639 638   1[j]
Vacant 0 0  
Government majority 87 44[8]   43
This table:

For full details of changes during the current Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.

When local elections were held in 2021 the Conservative Party made gains, mainly at the expense of the Labour Party. Since then, the Conservative Party has had several high-profile political scandals and crises and has seen a decrease in their popularity in opinion polling. This was reflected in the poor results for the Conservative Party at both the 2022, 2023 and 2024 local elections. As a result of the 2023 local elections, Labour became the party with most members elected to local government for the first time since 2002.

In March 2022 the Labour Party abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would be an unlawful practice under the Equality Act 2010, since the majority of Labour MPs were now women.[9]

In September 2022, Liz Truss became Prime Minister, resigning after 49 days, becoming the shortest serving Prime Minister.[10] In October 2022, Rishi Sunak became the third Prime Minister of the Parliament.[10]

In March 2024, Reform UK announced an electoral pact with the Northern Irish unionist party TUV.[11] The parties will stand mutually agreed candidates in Northern Ireland constituencies in the election.[12] Reform UK also announced a pact with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a minor socially conservative party.[13]

On 22 May 2024 Rishi Sunak announced that he had advised the King to order the dissolution of Parliament and called a general election for 4 July 2024.[14]

The election will be the first July general election since 1945,[15] and the first to take place under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, as well as the first under the reign of King Charles III.

Electoral system edit

See also: Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 and Politics of the United Kingdom

General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the 15-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain.[16] These changes were included in the Elections Act 2022.

Boundary reviews edit

Main article: List of United Kingdom Parliament constituencies (2024 to present) by region

The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, commenced in 2011 but temporarily stopped in January 2013. Following the 2015 general election, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process in April 2016.[17][18][19] The four commissions submitted their final recommendations to the Secretary of State on 5 September 2018[20][21] and made their reports public a week later.[22][23][24][20] However, the proposals were never put forward for approval before the calling of the general election held on 12 December 2019, and in December 2020 the reviews were formally abandoned under the Schedule to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.[25]

A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the 2018 boundaries suggested the changes would have been beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.[26][27]

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.[28][29] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020[30] and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.[31][32][33][34] They were required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023.[25] Once the reports have been laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals must be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament.

The boundary changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November 2023[35] and came into force on 29 November 2023,[36] meaning that the election will be contested on these new boundaries.[37]

Notional 2019 results edit

Main article: Notional results of the 2019 United Kingdom general election by 2024 constituency
 
The notional results of the 2019 election, if they had taken place under boundaries recommended by the Sixth Periodic Review.

The election will be contested under new constituency boundaries established by the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2019 were unchanged, but regrouped by new constituency boundaries.[38] Notional results in the UK are always estimated, usually with the assistance of local election results, because vote counts at parliamentary elections in the UK do not yield figures at any level more specific than that of the whole constituency.[39]

In England, seats will be redistributed towards Southern England, away from Northern England, due to the different rates of population growth. North West England and North East England will lose two seats each whereas South East England will gain seven seats and South West England will gain three seats.[40] Based on historical voting patterns, this is expected to help the Conservatives.[41] Based on these new boundaries, different parties would have won several constituencies with unchanged names but changed boundaries in 2019. For example, the Conservatives would have won Wirral West and Leeds North West instead of the Labour Party, but Labour would have won Pudsey and Heywood & Middleton instead of the Conservatives. Westmorland and Lonsdale, the constituency represented by former Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron, is now notionally a Conservative seat.

In Scotland, 57 MPs will be elected, down from the 59 in 2019, with the following notional partisan composition of Scotland's parliamentary delegation:[42] The Scottish National Party would remain steady on 48 seats, despite two of their constituencies being dissolved. The Scottish Conservatives' seat count of six would likewise remain unchanged. Scottish Labour would have retained Edinburgh South, the sole constituency they won in 2019. Had the 2019 general election occurred with the new boundaries in effect, the Scottish Liberal Democrats would have only won two seats (Edinburgh West and Orkney and Shetland), instead of the four they did win that year, as the expanded electorates in the other two would overcome their slender majorities.

Under the new boundaries, Wales will lose eight seats, electing 32 MPs instead of the 40 they elected in 2019. Welsh Labour would have won 18 instead of the 22 MPs they elected in 2019, and the Welsh Conservatives 12 instead of 14. Due to the abolition and merging of rural constituencies in West Wales, Plaid Cymru would have only won two seats instead of four. Nonetheless, the boundaries are expected to cause difficulty for the Conservatives as more pro-Labour areas are added to some of their safest seats.[43]

In Northern Ireland, the notional results are identical to the actual results of the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland.

Notional 2019 results on 2023 boundaries[39]
Party MPs
2019 actual result 2019 notional result Change
Conservative 365 372   7
Labour 202 200   2
Scottish National 48 48  
Liberal Democrats 11 8   3
Democratic Unionist 8 8  
Sinn Féin 7 7  
Plaid Cymru 4 2   2
Social Democratic and Labour 2 2  
Green 1 1  
Alliance 1 1  
Speaker 1 1  

Date of the election edit

Originally the next election was scheduled to take place on 2 May 2024 under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.[k] However, at the 2019 general election, in which the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the party's manifesto contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.[45] In December 2020, the government duly published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.[46] This entered into force on 24 March 2022. Thus, the prime minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met."

The Electoral Commission confirmed that the 2019 Parliament would, therefore, have to be dissolved, at the latest, by 17 December 2024, and that the next general election had to take place no later than 28 January 2025.[47][48]

With no election date fixed in law, there was speculation as to when Rishi Sunak, as prime minister, would call an election. On 18 December 2023, Sunak told journalists that the election would take place in 2024 rather than January 2025.[1] On 4 January, he first suggested the general election would probably be in the second half of 2024.[49] On 22 May 2024, after much speculation through the day,[50][51][52] Sunak confirmed the election would be held on 4 July.[53]

Timetable edit

Key dates[54]
Date Event
Wednesday 22 May Prime Minister Rishi Sunak requests a dissolution of parliament from King Charles III and announces the date of polling day for the general election as 4 July.
Friday 24 May Last sitting day of business. Parliament prorogued.
Thursday 30 May Dissolution of parliament and official start of the campaign. Beginning of purdah. Royal Proclamation issued dissolving the 58th Parliament, summoning the 59th Parliament and setting the date for its first meeting.
Friday 7 June Nominations of candidates close.
Thursday 13 June Deadline to register to vote at 5pm in Northern Ireland.
Tuesday 18 June Deadline to register to vote at 5pm in Great Britain.
Wednesday 19 June Deadline to apply for a postal vote.
Wednesday 26 June Deadline to register for a proxy vote at 5pm. Exemptions applied for emergencies.
Thursday 4 July Polling Day – polls open from 7am to 10 pm.
Thursday 4 July–Friday 5 July Results announced for all 650 constituencies.
Friday 5 July End of purdah.
Tuesday 9 July First meeting of the new Parliament of the United Kingdom, for the formal election of Speaker of the House of Commons.
Wednesday 17 July State Opening of Parliament and King's Speech.

Campaign edit

On the afternoon of 22 May 2024, Sunak announced that the general election would be held on 4 July 2024.[55] The calling of the election was welcomed by Keir Starmer, Leader of the Opposition and the Labour Party,[56] and by Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats.[57]

On 23 May 2024, Sunak said that before the election there would be no flights to Rwanda for those seeking asylum.[58] Immigration figures were published for 2023 showing immigration remained at historically high levels, but had fallen compared to 2022.[59] Nigel Farage, the former leader of Reform UK, said on 23 May that he would not stand as a candidate in the election. Reform UK said they would stand in 630 seats across England, Scotland and Wales.[60] On 23 May, Ed Davey launched the Liberal Democrat campaign in Cheltenham in Gloucestershire.[61] The SNP campaign launch the same day was overshadowed over a dispute around leader John Swinney's support for Michael Matheson and developments in Operation Branchform.[62]

Debates edit

The Conservatives challenged Keir Starmer to six televised debates.[63] Labour announced that it would not agree to such a proposal, and offered two head-to-head debates - one shown on the BBC, and one shown on ITV; a spokesperson said both networks would offer the greatest audience, and the prospect of any debates on smaller channels would be rejected as it would not be a "valuable use of campaign time". Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey proclaimed his wish to be included in "any televised debates".[64]

Endorsements edit

Main article: Endorsements in the 2024 United Kingdom general election

Newspapers, organisations, and individuals have endorsed parties or individual candidates for the election.

Candidates edit

Main article: Candidates in the 2024 United Kingdom general election

Details on MPs deselected or seeking a new constituency, MPs standing under a different political affiliation, former MPs seeking to return to Parliament, MPs changing constituencies, and incumbent MPs standing against each other are in the articles on Candidates in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

MPs not standing for re-election edit

As of 24 May 2024 a total of 117 current members of Parliament have announced their intention not to stand for re-election. Four MPs — Nadine Dorries, Nigel Adams, Chris Skidmore (all Conservative) and Chris Pincher (independent, elected as Conservative) — announced their intention not to stand again but later resigned from Parliament before the election.[65][66][67][68][69][70]

Opinion polling edit

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election § Graphical summary.[edit]

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United Kingdom general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS).

 

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ Stephen Flynn leads the SNP in the House of Commons.
  2. ^ Liz Saville Roberts leads Plaid Cymru in the House of Commons.
  3. ^ Neale Hanvey leads Alba in the House of Commons.
  4. ^ In Northern Ireland, voter ID was already required at elections before it was introduced in the rest of the UK.
  5. ^ Includes 24 MPs sponsored by the Co-operative Party, who are designated Labour and Co-operative.[4]
  6. ^ a b At the time of the 2019 election this party did not exist.
  7. ^ Both of the Alba Party's MPs, Kenny MacAskill and Neale Hanvey, were elected for the Scottish National Party (SNP) before leaving to join Alba in 2021.[5]
  8. ^ Six were elected as Conservative MPs at the 2019 general election, including Andrew Bridgen, who defected to Reclaim in May 2023 but left the party in December 2023 and now sits as an independent. The remaining 9 independent MPs all come from the opposition benches.
  9. ^ The seven members of Sinn Féin abstain, i.e. they do not take their seats in the House of Commons;[6] the Speaker and deputy speakers (currently three Conservative and one Labour) have only a tie-breaking vote constrained by conventions.[7]
  10. ^ Deputy speaker Eleanor Laing (Con, Chair of Ways and Means) was on an extended leave of absence, and Roger Gale (Con) has served as an additional acting Deputy Speaker since.
  11. ^ The Fixed-term Parliaments Act automatically scheduled general elections for the first Thursday in May of the fifth year after the previous general election.[44] The previous election was held in December 2019.

References edit

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  4. ^ "About: Members of Parliament". Co-operative Party. Retrieved 10 May 2024.
  5. ^ Webster, Laura (27 March 2021). "MP Kenny MacAskill quits SNP to join Alex Salmond's Alba Party". The National. Retrieved 27 March 2021.
  6. ^ Kelly, Conor (19 August 2019). "Understanding Sinn Féin's Abstention from the UK Parliament". E-International Relations. Retrieved 16 December 2019.
  7. ^ Boothroyd, David. "House of Commons: Tied Divisions". United Kingdom Election Results. Retrieved 25 July 2018.[dead link]
  8. ^ Zodgekar, Ketaki; Baker, Finn (8 May 2024). "What is the government's current working majority?". Institute for Government. Retrieved 10 May 2024.
  9. ^ Rogers, Alexandra (7 March 2022). "Exclusive: Labour Drops All-Women Shortlists For Next General Election". HuffPost. Archived from the original on 26 March 2022. Retrieved 26 March 2022.
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