The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is running against nonprofit founder Hung Cao for re-election to a third term in office. Kaine was re-elected with 57.0% of the vote in 2018. Primary elections took place on June 18, 2024.[1]
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Background
editVirginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.[2][3][4]
Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.[5][6]
This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[7]
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editNominee
editEndorsements
edit- U.S representatives
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)[8]
- Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[9]
- Organizations
- Feminist Majority PAC[10]
- Giffords[8]
- Harvard College Democrats[11]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[12]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[13]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[14]
- J Street PAC[15]
- League of Conservation Voters[16]
- LGBT Democrats of Virginia[17]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC[18]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[19]
- NextGen America PAC[9]
- Population Connection Action Fund[20]
- Sierra Club[21]
- Labor unions
Fundraising
editCampaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Tim Kaine (D) | $14,583,509 | $8,488,125 | $8,615,046 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[23] |
Republican primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Hung Cao, nonprofit founder and nominee for Virginia's 10th congressional district in 2022[24]
Eliminated in primary
edit- Jonathan Emord, constitutional lawyer[25]
- Eddie Garcia, financial advisor and former congressional aide[26]
- Scott Parkinson, former Club for Growth vice president of government affairs and former chief of staff to Ron DeSantis[27]
- Chuck Smith, former chair of the Virginia Beach Republican Party, nominee for Virginia's 3rd congressional district in 2010, and candidate for attorney general in 2017 and 2021[28]
Endorsements
edit- U.S. Presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[29]
- Individuals
- Oliver North, former President of the National Rifle Association of America (2018–2019),[30] nominee for this seat in 1994
- U.S. representatives
- Ron Paul, former U.S. representative from TX-14 (1976–1977, 1979–1985, 1997–2013) (Libertarian)[31]
- Barry Goldwater Jr., former U.S. representative from CA-20 (1969–1983)[31]
- U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)
- Jim DeMint, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2005–2013)[32]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present)[33]
- Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present)[34]
- U.S. representatives
- Jim Banks, U.S. representative from Indiana (2017–present)[32]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. representative from Arizona (2017–present)[32]
- Dan Bishop, U.S. representative from North Carolina (2019–present)[32]
- Lauren Boebert, U.S. representative from Colorado (2021–present)[34]
- Josh Brecheen, U.S. representative from Oklahoma (2023–present)[32]
- Eli Crane, U.S. representative from Arizona (2023–present)[32]
- Bob Good. U.S. representative from Virginia (2021–present)[35]
- Byron Donalds, U.S. representative from Florida (2021–present)[33]
- Mary Miller, U.S. representative from Illinois (2021–present)[33]
- Barry Moore, U.S. representative from Alabama (2021–present)[32]
- Anna Paulina Luna, U.S. representative from Florida (2023–present)[32]
- Scott Perry, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania (2013–present)[33]
- August Pfluger, U.S. representative from Texas (2021–present)[33]
- Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Montana (2021–present)[32]
- Jason Smith, U.S. representative from Missouri (2013–present)[33]
- Individuals
- David Bossie, president of Citizens United[36]
- Organizations
- State legislators
- Amanda Chase, former state senator from the 11th district (2016–2024)[37]
Fundraising
editCampaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Hung Cao (R) | $2,508,562 | $2,398,405 | $202,637 |
Jonathan Emord (R) | $932,828[a] | $897,923 | $34,905 |
Eddie Garcia (R) | $340,558 | $315,309 | $25,249 |
Scott Parkinson (R) | $930,240 | $601,089 | $329,151 |
Chuck Smith (R) | $556,762 | $536,262 | $20,499 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[23] |
Results
edit- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 30–40%
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Hung Cao | 168,868 | 61.79% | |
Republican | Scott Parkinson | 29,940 | 10.95% | |
Republican | Eddie Garcia | 26,777 | 9.80% | |
Republican | Chuck Smith | 24,108 | 8.82% | |
Republican | Jonathan Emord | 23,614 | 8.64% | |
Total votes | 273,307 | 100.00% |
General election
editPredictions
editSource | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[39] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily[40] | Solid D | August 9, 2024 |
Inside Elections[41] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[43] | Likely D | June 8, 2024 |
CNalysis[44] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
Post-primary endorsements
edit- Organizations
Fundraising
editCampaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Tim Kaine (D) | $15,990,927 | $10,698,945 | $7,811,645 |
Hung Cao (R) | $3,051,361 | $2,729,334 | $414,508 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[23]</ref> |
Polling
editPoll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Hung Cao (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida Atlantic University/ Mainstreet Research |
July 14–15, 2024 | 301 (A) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 33% | 5% | 20% |
265 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 34% | 4% | 19% | ||
Emerson College | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | 4% | 8% |
Florida Atlantic University/ Mainstreet Research |
July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (A) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 32% | 7% | 15% |
544 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 34% | 6% | 13% | ||
New York Times/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 34% | – | 14% |
661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 36% | – | 12% | ||
Virginia Commonwealth University | June 24 – July 3, 2024 | 809 (A) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 38% | 14%[c] | – |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[A] |
April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 1% | 16% |
- Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 47% | 42% | 3%[d] | 7% |
University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 10%[e] | 10% |
Results
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | Hung Cao | ||||
Total votes | 100.00% |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Poll sponsored by Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines
References
edit- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ^ "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2012 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "Virginia | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ a b Flynn, Meagan; Vozzella, Laura (January 20, 2023). "Va. Sen. Tim Kaine says he will seek another term". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
- ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine for Reelection". Giffords. February 22, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024.
- ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
- ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ^ "Tim Kaine". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". LGBT+ Democrats of Virginia. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
- ^ NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Advocacy Group Endorses Sen. Tim Kaine for Re-Election". NCPSSM. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
- ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Virginia - COMPAC Endorsements". United Mine Workers of America. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
- ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ Minock, Nick (July 18, 2023). "Hung Cao launches website and files paperwork to run for 2024 US Senate race in Virginia". WJLA.com.
- ^ Churchill, Victoria (January 31, 2023). "Constitutional Litigator Jonathan Emord Announces U.S. Senate Run". The Republican Standard. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- ^ Rankin, Sarah (January 20, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to seek reelection". AP News. Archived from the original on January 20, 2023. Retrieved April 21, 2023.
- ^ Rankin, Sarah (April 3, 2023). "Scott Parkinson runs for Tim Kaine's seat". The Virginia Pilot. Archived from the original on April 3, 2023.
- ^ Martz, Michael (August 5, 2023). "Meet the 8 Republicans (and counting) who want to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ^ Iannelli, Nick (May 27, 2024). "Republican US Senate candidate in Virginia 'honored' to receive Trump endorsement". WTOP. Retrieved May 27, 2024.
- ^ "A true patriot's endosement". PoliticalEmails. Archived from the original on February 23, 2024. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
- ^ a b "U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE JONATHAN EMORD RECEIVES THE ENDORSEMENTS OF RON PAUL AND BARRY GOLDWATER, JR". FOX 59. March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Johnson, Julia (May 2023). "Tim Kaine GOP challenger holds fundraiser with Trump and DeSantis supporters alike". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f Hazard, Charlotte. "Ex-DeSantis Hill staffer runs for U.S. Senate, says pandemic was his call for change". Just the News. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ a b Shipley, Jonathan (May 31, 2023). "Former Baraboo resident eyes Virginia Senate". News Republic. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ Martz, Michael (February 2, 2024). "Here's how much money Sen. Tim Kaine has raised in bid for new term". Richmond Times Dispatch. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
- ^ a b "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Scott Parkinson for U.S. Senate from Virginia". cupvf.com. April 24, 2023. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
- ^ Cantor, Dave (March 20, 2024). "These are the GOP candidates hoping to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". VPM. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
- ^ "Candidates & Referendums June 18, 2024 Primary Elections". elections.Virginia.Gov. April 15, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
External links
edit- Official campaign websites