2008 Hessian state election

The 2008 Hessian state election was held on 27 January 2008 to elect the members of the Landtag of Hesse. The incumbent Christian Democratic Union (CDU) government led by Minister-President Roland Koch lost its majority. The result of the election was extremely close but inconclusive, with the CDU winning just 3,500 votes (0.1%) more than the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Due to the entrance of The Left to the Landtag, neither the CDU–FDP or SPD–Green bloc garnered a majority. After a year of failed attempts to form government, a new election was held.

2008 Hesse state election

← 2003 27 January 2008 2009 →

All 110 seats of the Landtag of Hesse
56 seats needed for a majority
Turnout2,742,959 (64.3%)
Decrease 0.3%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Roland Koch Andrea Ypsilanti Jörg-Uwe Hahn
Party CDU SPD FDP
Last election 56 seats, 48.8% 33 seats, 29.1% 9 seats, 7.9%
Seats won 42 42 11
Seat change Decrease 14 Increase 9 Increase 2
Popular vote 1,009,775 1,006,263 258,550
Percentage 36.8% 36.7% 9.4%
Swing Decrease 12.0% Increase 7.6% Increase 1.5%

  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Tarek Al-Wazir Willi van Ooyen
Party Greens Left
Last election 12 seats, 10.1% Did not run
Seats won 9 6
Seat change Decrease 3 Increase 6
Popular vote 206,610 140,769
Percentage 7.5% 5.1%
Swing Decrease 2.6% Increase 5.1%

Results for the single-member constituencies.

Minister-President before election

Roland Koch
CDU

Elected Minister-President

Roland Koch
CDU

Background and issues

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The CDU won a majority in the 2003 state election, but lost popularity in the following years. In the 2008 election campaign, CDU Minister-President Roland Koch took a tough stance against immigrant youth violence as an electoral tactic.[1] The political left criticised this as xenophobic. Other issues included minimum wage concerns, education, and controversy over the planned major expansion of the Rhine-Main airport.

The formation of The Left meant that a party to the left of the SPD and Greens stood a serious chance of entering the Landtag for the first time in decades. The party polled between 4 and 6 per cent in the lead-up to the election; it was unclear if the party would exceed the 5% threshold.

Polling data narrowed as the election approached; both the CDU and SPD and their junior partners the FDP and Greens were essentially tied. This meant that, if The Left entered the Landtag, it may hold the balance of power and make government formation difficult.

Parties

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The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of Hesse.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2003 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Roland Koch 48.8%
56 / 110
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Andrea Ypsilanti 29.1%
33 / 110
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Tarek Al-Wazir 10.1%
12 / 110
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Jörg-Uwe Hahn 7.9%
9 / 110

Opinion polling

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Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU SPD Grüne FDP Linke Others Lead
2008 state election 27 January 2008 36.8 36.7 7.5 9.4 5.1 3.4 0.1
AMR Düsseldorf 23–24 Jan 2008 1,000 37 38 7 10 5 ? 1
Forsa 22–24 Jan 2008 1,006 38–39 37–38 6–7 9–10 4–5 3–4 1
Forsa 14–18 Jan 2008 1,005 38 38 7 9 5 3 Tie
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14–17 Jan 2008 1,100 38 37 8 8 5 4 1
GMS 15–16 Jan 2008 1,010 39 34 8 9 5 5 5
Infratest dimap 14–16 Jan 2008 1,000 38 37 7 8 6 3 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 7–9 Jan 2008 1,000 40 36 7 8 5 ? 4
Infratest dimap 3–8 Jan 2008 1,000 40 35 9 9 4 3 5
Emnid 10 Dec–2 Jan 2008 800 42 32 10 8 5 3 10
AMR Düsseldorf 29 Dec 2007 1,000 40 33 10 9 6 2 7
Forsa 3–7 Dec 2007 1,002 41 30 11 9 5 4 11
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 3–5 Dec 2007 1,052 40 34 9 7 6 4 6
Forsa 18–21 Sep 2007 1,001 43 30 9 8 5 5 13
Infratest dimap 3–5 Sep 2007 1,000 42 32 10 8 4 4 10
TNS Infratest 9–11 Jul 2007 1,000 40 33 11 7 5 4 7
Forsa 11–26 Jun 2007 1,012 41 27 11 9 6 6 14
Emnid 30 Apr–16 May 2007 599 40 32 11 9 4 4 8
Infratest dimap 19–21 Mar 2007 1,001 38 34 10 9 4 5 4
Forsa 26 Feb–13 Mar 2007 1,027 43 27 11 9 4 6 16
Forsa 20 Nov–12 Dec 2006 1,023 42 27 10 9 5 7 15
Forsa 14 Sep–11 Oct 2006 1,170 41 27 12 11 3 6 14
Forsa 15 May–9 Jun 2006 1,225 39 31 11 9 5 5 8
Infratest dimap 10–15 Mar 2006 1,002 40 35 10 7 4 4 4
Infratest dimap 19 Oct 2003 1,000 52 28 11 5 4 24
2003 state election 2 February 2003 48.8 29.1 10.1 7.9 3.4 19.7

Election result

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Summary of the 27 January 2008 election results for the Landtag of Hesse
Party Constituency Party list Total
seats
+/-
Votes % Seats Votes % +/- Seats
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 1,068,358 39.13 28 1,009,775 36.81   11.96 14 42   14
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 1,047,051 38.35 27 1,006,264 36.69   7.60 15 42   9
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 196,004 7.18 0 258,550 9.43   1.52 11 11   2
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 206,250 7.55 0 205,610 7.53   2.57 9 9   3
The Left (DIE LINKE) 106,975 3.92 0 140,769 5.13 New 6 6 New
The Republicans (REP) 39,126 1.43 0 27,724 1.01   0.25 0 0   0
Free Voters (FW) 36,212 1.33 0 24,327 0.89 New 0 0 New
National Democratic Party (NPD) 17,627 0.65 0 24,004 0.88 New 0 0 New
Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz) 8,833 0.32 0 15,909 0.58   0.17 0 0   0
Family Party (FAMILIE) 1,243 0.05 0 7,817 0.28 New 0 0 New
Pirate Party (PIRATEN) 6,962 0.25 New 0 0 New
The Grays – Gray Panthers (GRAUE) 717 0.03 0 4,810 0.18 New 0 0 New
Alliance for Germany (Volksabstimmung) 238 0.01 0 3,130 0.11 New 0 0 New
The Violets (VIOLETTEN) 2,380 0.09 New 0 0 New
Independent Citizen Politics (UB) 595 0.02 0 1,775 0.06 New 0 0 New
Civil Rights Movement Soliarity (BüSo) 361 0.01 0 1,118 0.04   0.02 0 0   0
Socialist Equality Party (PSG) 1,035 0.04   0.01 0 0   0
Independents 595 0.02 0 0   0
Total 2,730,185 100.00 55 2,742,599 100.00 55 110   0
Invalid 80,888 2.88 68,114 2.42
Turnout 2,811,073 64.32 2,811,073 64.32   0.30
Registered voters 4,370,463 4,370,463

Outcome

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The CDU's share of the vote fell to its lowest level since the 1966 election. The SPD, under its leader Andrea Ypsilanti, increased its share of the vote substantially, from 29% to 37%; the SPD claimed victory as a result. The other winner was The Left, who narrowly entered the Hesse Landtag with 5.1% of the vote. This was the second western state legislature which the party had entered, the first being Bremen in 2007. The party also won seats in neighbouring Lower Saxony in an election held the same day.

The SPD and the CDU both won 42 seats; the FDP won 11 and the Greens 9. With 56 seats needed for a majority, neither was able to form a government with their traditional partners. There was a several-month-long lull after the election. The Left was thus kingmaker, exactly the result it had hoped for.[2]

A traffic light coalition (SPD, FDP, Greens) would have held a majority (62), but was rejected by FDP, saying that they will only form a coalition with CDU or go into opposition.[3]

SPD leader Ypsilanti had long refused to negotiate with The Left, but in October 2008 began talks to include them in a three-party "red-green-red" coalition with herself as Minister-President. This was a controversial move which sparked a revolt in the SPD, as many members bitterly refused to participate in power-sharing with The Left. One day before the election for Minister-President in the Landtag, four members of the SPD parliamentary group indicated they would not vote for her, and called a vote of no-confidence on her leadership.[4] After this point, it became clear a red-red-green coalition was not viable. New elections were subsequently scheduled for January 2009.

References

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  1. ^ "Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger - Aktuelle Nachrichten aus Köln und der ganzen Welt".
  2. ^ https://www.derwesten.de/nachrichten/2008/1/28/news-19224423/detail.html [dead link]
  3. ^ "Hessen: Ypsilanti will sich mit linken Stimmen wählen lassen - CDU tobt wegen Wortbruchs". Der Spiegel (in German). 2008-03-04. ISSN 2195-1349. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
  4. ^ "Hessen: Ypsilanti Wahl geplatzt : News & Nachrichten". Archived from the original on 2008-12-06. Retrieved 2009-02-09.