Climate change in Antarctica

Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities occurs everywhere on Earth, and while Antarctica is less vulnerable to it than any other continent,[1] climate change in Antarctica has already been observed. There has been an average temperature increase of >0.05 °C/decade since 1957 across the continent, although it had been uneven.[2] While West Antarctica warmed by over 0.1 °C/decade from the 1950s to the 2000s and the exposed Antarctic Peninsula has warmed by 3 °C (5.4 °F) since the mid-20th century,[3] the colder and more stable East Antarctica had been experiencing cooling until the 2000s.[4][5] Around Antarctica, the Southern Ocean has absorbed more heat than any other ocean,[6] with particularly strong warming at depths below 2,000 m (6,600 ft)[7]: 1230  and around the West Antarctic, which has warmed by 1 °C (1.8 °F) since 1955.[3]

Antarctic surface ice layer temperature trends between 1981 and 2007, based on thermal infrared observations made by a series of NOAA satellite sensors.

The warming of Antarctica's territorial waters has caused the weakening or outright collapse of ice shelves, which float just offshore of glaciers and stabilize them. Many coastal glaciers have been losing mass and retreating, which causes net annual ice loss across Antarctica,[7]: 1264  even as the East Antarctic ice sheet continues to gain ice inland. By 2100, net ice loss from Antarctica alone is expected to add about 11 cm (5 in) to global sea level rise. However, marine ice sheet instability may cause West Antarctica to contribute tens of centimeters more if it is triggered before 2100.[7]: 1270  With higher warming instability would be much more likely, and could double overall 21st century sea level rise.[8][9][10]

The fresh meltwater from the ice, 1100-1500 billion tons (GT) per year, dilutes the saline Antarctic bottom water,[11][12] thus weakening the lower cell of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation.[7]: 1240  Some research tentatively suggests a full collapse of the circulation may occur between 1.7 °C (3.1 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F) of global warming,[13] although the full effects are expected to unfold over multiple centuries. They include less precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere but more in the Northern Hemisphere, and an eventual decline of fisheries in the Southern Ocean with a potential collapse of certain marine ecosystems.[14] Furthermore, while many Antarctic species remain undiscovered, there are already documented increases in flora and large fauna such as penguins are already seen struggling to retain suitable habitat. On ice-free land, permafrost thaws, releasing not only greenhouse gases, but also formerly frozen pollution.[15]

The West Antarctic ice sheet is likely to melt completely,[16][17][18]unless temperatures are reduced by 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the levels of the year 2020.[19] The loss of this ice sheet would take between 2,000 and 13,000 years,[20][21] although several centuries of high emissions could shorten this timeframe to 500 years.[22] A sea-level rise of 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) would occur if the ice sheet collapses leaving ice caps on the mountains and 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in) if those ice caps also melt.[23] Isostatic rebound may contribute an additional 1 m (3 ft 3 in) to global sea levels over another 1,000 years.[22] In contrast, the East Antarctic ice sheet is far more stable and may only cause a sea-level rise of 0.5 m (1 ft 8 in) - 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) from the current level of warming, a small fraction of the 53.3 m (175 ft) contained in the full ice sheet.[24] With a global warming of around 3 °C (5.4 °F), vulnerable areas like the Wilkes Basin and Aurora Basin may collapse over a period of around 2,000 years,[20][21] potentially adding up to 6.4 m (21 ft 0 in) to sea levels.[22] The complete melting of the East Antarctic ice sheet, which would result in a global warming scenario between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F), would require at least 10,000 years to disappear.[20][21]

Temperature and weather changes edit

 
Antarctic surface temperature trends, in °C/decade. Red represents areas where temperatures have increased the most since the 1950s.[2]

Antarctica is the coldest and driest continent on Earth, as well as the one with the highest average elevation.[1] Further, it is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which is far more effective at absorbing heat than any other ocean.[25] It also has extensive year-around sea ice, which has a high albedo (reflectivity) and adds to the albedo of the ice's sheet own bright, white surface.[1] Antarctica is so cold that it is the only place on Earth where atmospheric temperature inversion occurs every winter.[1] Elsewhere, the atmosphere on Earth is at its warmest near the surface and it becomes cooler as elevation increases. During the Antarctic winter, the surface of central Antarctica becomes cooler than middle layers of the atmosphere.[1] Thus, greenhouse gases trap heat in the middle atmosphere and reduce its flow towards the surface and towards space, instead of simply preventing the flow of heat from the lower atmosphere to the upper layers. This effect lasts until the end of the Antarctic winter.[1] Thus, even the early climate models predicted that temperature trends over Antarctica would emerge slower and be more subtle than they are elsewhere.[26]

Moreover, there were fewer than twenty permanent weather stations across the continent, with only two in the continent's interior, while automatic weather stations were deployed relatively late, and their observational record was brief for much of the 20th century. Likewise, satellite temperature measurements did not begin until 1981 and are typically limited to cloud-free conditions. Thus datasets representing the entire continent only began to appear by the very end of the 20th century.[27] The only exception was the Antarctic Peninsula, where warming was both well-documented and strongly pronounced:[28] It was eventually found to have warmed by 3 °C (5.4 °F) since the mid-20th century.[3] Based on this limited data, several papers published in the early 2000s suggested that there had been an overall cooling over continental Antarctica (that is outside of the Peninsula).[29][30]

A 2002 analysis led by Peter Doran received widespread media coverage after it also indicated stronger cooling than warming between 1966 and 2000, and found that McMurdo Dry Valleys in East Antarctica had experienced cooling of 0.7 °C per decade[31] - a local trend confirmed by subsequent research at McMurdo.[32] Multiple journalists suggested that these findings were "contradictory" to global warming,[33][34][35][36][37][38] even though the paper itself noted the limited data, and still found warming over 42% of the continent.[31][39][40] What became known as the "Antarctic Cooling Controversy" received further attention in 2004, when Michael Crichton wrote a novel State of Fear which alleged a conspiracy amongst climate scientists to make up global warming, and claimed that Doran's study definitively proved there was no warming in Antarctica outside of the Peninsula.[41] Relatively few scientists responded to the book at the time,[42] but it was subsequently brought up in a 2006 US Senate hearing in support of climate change denial,[43] and Peter Doran felt compelled to publish a statement in The New York Times decrying the misinterpretation of his work.[39] The British Antarctic Survey and NASA also issued statements affirming the strength of climate science after the hearing.[44][45]

By 2009, research was finally able to combine historical weather station data with satellite measurements to create consistent temperature records going back to 1957, which demonstrated warming of >0.05 °C/decade since 1957 across the continent, with cooling in East Antractica offset by the average temperature increase of at least 0.176 ± 0.06 °C per decade in West Antarctica.[2][46] Subsequent research confirmed clear warming over West Antarctica in the 20th century with the only uncertainty being the magnitude.[47] Over 2012-2013, estimates based on WAIS Divide ice cores and the revised Byrd Station temperature record even suggested a much larger West Antarctica warming of 2.4 °C (4.3 °F) since 1958, or around 0.46 °C (0.83 °F) per decade,[48][49][50][51] although there has been some uncertainty about it.[52] In 2022, a study narrowed the warming of the Central area of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 1959 and 2000 to 0.31 °C (0.56 °F) per decade, and conclusively attributed it to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations caused by human activity.[53]

 
East Antarctica cooled in the 1980s and 1990s, even as West Antarctica warmed (left-hand side). This trend largely reversed in 2000s and 2010s (right-hand side).[5]

Local changes in atmospheric circulation patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation or the Southern Annular Mode, slowed or even partially reversed the warming of West Antarctica between 2000 and 2020, with the Antarctic Peninsula experiencing cooling from 2002.[54][55][56] While a variability in those patterns is natural, ozone depletion had also led the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to be stronger than it had been in the past 600 years of observations. Studies predicted a reversal in the SAM once the ozone layer began to recover following the Montreal Protocol starting from 2002,[57][58][59] and these changes were consistent with their predictions.[60] As these patterns reversed, the East Antarctica interior demonstrated clear warming over those two decades.[5][61] In particular, the South Pole warmed by 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade between 1990 and 2020, which is three times the global average.[4][62] The Antarctica-wide warming trend also continued after 2000, and in February 2020, the continent recorded its highest temperature of 18.3 °C, which was a degree higher than the previous record of 17.5 °C in March 2015.[63]

Models predict that under the most intense climate change scenario, known as RCP8.5, Antarctic temperatures will be up 4 °C (7.2 °F), on average, by 2100 and this will be accompanied by a 30% increase in precipitation and a 30% decrease in total sea ice.[64] RCPs were developed in the late 2000s, and early 2020s research considers RCP8.5 much less likely[65] than the more "moderate" scenarios like RCP 4.5, which lies in between the worst-case and the Paris Agreement goals.[66][67]

Black carbon and effects on albedo edit

Black carbon accumulated on snow and ice reduces the reflection of ice causing it to absorb more energy and accelerate melting. This can create an ice-albedo feedback loop where meltwater itself absorbs more sunlight.[68] Black carbon is an impurity which darkens snow and other icy surfaces. This causes more solar energy to be absorbed, which melts more snow.[69] In Antarctica black carbon has been found on the Antarctic Peninsula and around Union Glacier, with the highest concentrations near human activities.[70][71] The result of human activities in Antarctica will accelerate snowmelt on the continent,[clarification needed] but the speed of melting will differ depending on how far black carbon and other emissions will spread, along with the size of the area that they will cover. A study from 2022 estimate that the seasonal melt during the summer period will start sooner on sites with black carbon because of the reduction in albedo reflection that ranges from 5 to 23 kg/m2.[71][clarification needed]

Effects on ocean currents edit

 
Even under the most intense climate change scenario, which is currently considered unlikely,[65][67] the Southern Ocean would continue to take up an increasing amount of carbon dioxide (left) and heat (middle) during the 21st century.[6] However, it would take up a smaller fraction of heat (right) and emissions per every additional degree of warming when compared to now.[6][72]

Between 1971 and 2018, over 90% of thermal energy from global heating entered the oceans.[73] Southern Ocean absorbs the most heat by far - after 2005, it accounted for between 67% and 98% of all heat entering the oceans.[25] The temperature in the upper layer of the ocean in West Antarctica has warmed 1 °C (1.8 °F) since 1955, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is also warming faster than the average.[3] It is also a highly important carbon sink.[74][75] These properties are connected to Southern Ocean overturning circulation, one half of the global thermohaline circulation. It is so important that estimates on when global warming will reach 2 °C (3.6 °F) (inevitable in all scenarios where greenhouse gas emissions have not been strongly lowered) depend on the strength of the circulation more than any factor other than the overall emissions.[13]

 
Since the 1970s, the upper cell of the circulation has strengthened, while the lower cell weakened.[76]

The overturning circulation itself consists of two parts - the smaller upper cell, which is most strongly affected by winds and precipitation, and the larger lower cell, which is defined by the temperature and salinity of Antarctic bottom water.[77] Since the 1970s, the upper cell has strengthened by 50-60%, while the lower cell has weakened by 10-20%.[78][76] Some of this was due to the natural cycle of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, but there is also a clear impact of climate change,[79][80] as it alters winds and precipitation through shifts in the Southern Annular Mode pattern,[25] while the salty Antarctic bottom water is diluted by fresh meltwater from the erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet,[11][12] which flows at a rate of 1100-1500 billion tons (GT) per year.[7]: 1240  During the 2010s, a temporary reduction in ice shelf melting in West Antarctica had allowed for the partial recovery of Antarctic bottom water and the lower cell of the circulation.[81] Yet, greater melting and more decline of the circulation is expected in the future.[82]

As bottom water weakens while the flow of warmer, fresher waters strengthens near the surface, the surface waters become more buoyant and less likely to sink and mix with the lower layers. Consequently, ocean stratification increases.[83][78][76] One study suggests that the circulation would lose half its strength by 2050 under the worst climate change scenario,[82] with greater losses occurring afterwards.[14] Paleoclimate evidence shows that the entire circulation has weakened a lot or completely collapsed in the past: some preliminary research suggests that such a collapse may become likely once global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C (3.1 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F), but this estimate is much less certain than for the majority of tipping points in the climate system.[13] Such a collapse would also be prolonged: one estimate indicates it would occur some time before 2300.[84] As with the better-studied AMOC, a major slowdown or collapse of the Southern ocean circulation would have substantial regional and global impacts.[13] Some likely impacts include a decline in precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere countries like Australia (with a corresponding increase in the Northern Hemisphere), and an eventual decline of fisheries in the Southern Ocean, which could lead to a potential collapse of certain marine ecosystems.[14] These impacts are expected to unfold over multiple centuries,[14] but there has been limited research to date and few specifics are currently known.[13]

Impacts on the cryosphere edit

Observed changes in ice mass edit

Mass change of ice in Antarctica between 2002–2020.

Contrasting temperature trends across parts of Antarctica, as well as its remoteness, mean that some locations lose mass, particularly at the coasts, while others that are more inland continue to gain it, and estimating an average trend can be difficult.[85] In 2018, a systematic review of all previous studies and data by the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) estimated an increase in West Antarctic ice sheet annual mass loss from 53 ± 29 Gt (gigatonnes) in 1992 to 159 ± 26 Gt in the final five years of the study. On the Antarctic Peninsula, the study estimated −20 ± 15 Gt per year with an increase in loss of roughly 15 Gt per year after year 2000, with a significant role played by the loss of ice shelves.[86] The review's overall estimate was that Antarctica lost 2720 ± 1390 gigatons of ice from 1992 to 2017, averaging 109 ± 56 Gt per year. This would amount to 7.6 millimeters of sea level rise.[86] Then, though, a 2021 analysis of data from four different research satellite systems (Envisat, European Remote-Sensing Satellite, GRACE and GRACE-FO and ICESat) indicated annual mass loss of only about 12 Gt from 2012-2016, due to much greater ice gain in East Antarctica than estimated earlier, which had offset most of the losses from West Antarctica.[87] The East Antarctic ice sheet can still gain mass in spite of warming because effects of climate change on the water cycle increase precipitation over its surface, which then freezes and helps to build up more ice.[7]: 1262 

21st century ice loss and sea level rise edit

 
An illustration of the theory behind marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instabilities.[88]

By 2100, net ice loss from Antarctica alone is expected to add about 11 cm (5 in) to global sea level rise.[7]: 1270  However, processes such as marine ice sheet instability, which describes the potential for warm water currents to enter between the seafloor and the base of the ice sheet once it is no longer heavy enough to displace such flows,[89] and marine ice cliff instability, when ice cliffs with heights greater than 100 m (330 ft) may collapse under their own weight once they are no longer buttressed by ice shelves (which has never been observed, and only occurs in some of the modelling)[90] may cause West Antarctica have a much larger contribution. Such processes may increase sea level rise caused by Antarctica to 41 cm (16 in) by 2100 under the low-emission scenario and 57 cm (22 in) under the high-emission scenario.[7]: 1270  Some scientists have even larger estimates, but all agree it would have a greater impact and become much more likely to occur under higher warming scenarios, where it may double the overall 21st century sea level rise to 2 meters or more.[8][9][10] One study suggested that if the Paris Agreement is followed and global warming is limited to 2 °C (3.6 °F), the loss of ice in Antarctica will continue at the 2020 rate for the rest of the century, but if a trajectory leading to 3 °C (5.4 °F) is followed, Antarctica ice loss will accelerate after 2060 and start adding 0.5 cm to global sea levels per year by 2100.[91]

Long-term sea level rise edit

 
If countries cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly (lowest trace), then sea level rise by 2100 can be limited to 0.3–0.6 m (1–2 ft).[92] If the emissions instead accelerate rapidly (top trace), sea levels could rise 5 m (16+12 ft) by the year 2300. Higher levels of sea level rise would involve substantial ice loss from Antarctica, including East Antarctica.[92]

Sea level rise will continue well after 2100, but potentially at very different rates. According to the most recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SROCC and the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report), there will be a median rise of 16 cm (6.3 in) and maximum rise of 37 cm (15 in) under the low-emission scenario. On the other hand, the highest emission scenario results in a median rise of 1.46 m (5 ft) metres, with a minimum of 60 cm (2 ft) and a maximum of 2.89 m (9+12 ft)).[7]

Over even longer timescales, West Antarctic ice sheet, which is much smaller than the East Antarctic ice sheet is and grounded deep below the sea level, is considered highly vulnerable. The melting of all the ice in West Antarctica would increase the total sea level rise to 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in).[23] However, mountain ice caps not in contact with water are less vulnerable than the majority of the ice sheet, which is located below the sea level. Its collapse would cause ~3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) of sea level rise.[93] This kind of collapse is now considered practically inevitable, because it appears to have already occurred during the Eemian period 125,000 years ago, when temperatures were similar to the early 21st century.[94][95][16][17][96] The Amundsen Sea also appears to be warming at rates which would make the ice sheet's collapse effectively inevitable.[18][97]

The only way to reverse ice loss from West Antarctica once triggered is by lowering the global temperature to 1 °C (1.8 °F) below the preindustrial level. This would be 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020.[19] Other researchers suggested that a climate engineering intervention to stabilize the ice sheet's glaciers may delay its loss by centuries and give more time to adapt. However this is an uncertain proposal, and would end up as one of the most expensive projects ever attempted.[98][99] Otherwise, the disappearance of the West Antarctic ice sheet would take an estimated 2000 years. The absolute minimum for the loss of West Antarctica ice is 500 years, and the potential maximum is 13,000 years.[20][21] Once the ice sheet is lost, there would also be an additional 1 m (3 ft 3 in) of sea level rise over the next 1000 years, caused by isostatic rebound of land beneath the ice sheet.[22]

 
Retreat of Cook Glacier - a key part of the Wilkes Basin - during the Eemian ~120,000 years ago and an earlier Pleistocene interglacial ~330,000 years ago. These retreats would have added about 0.5 m (1 ft 8 in) and 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) to sea level rise.[24]

On the other hand, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is far more stable. It would take global warming in a range between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F), and a minimum of 10,000 years for the entire ice sheet to be lost.[20][21] Yet, some of its parts, such as Totten Glacier and Wilkes Basin, are located in vulnerable locations below the sea level, known as subglacial basins. Estimates suggest that they would be committed to disappearance once the global warming reaches 3 °C (5.4 °F), although the plausible temperature range is between 2 °C (3.6 °F) and 6 °C (11 °F). Once it becomes too warm for these subglacial basins, their collapse would unfold over a period of around 2,000 years, although it may be as fast as 500 years or as slow as 10,000 years.[20][21]

The loss of all this ice would ultimately add between 1.4 m (4 ft 7 in) and 6.4 m (21 ft 0 in) to sea levels, depending on the ice sheet model used. Isostatic rebound of the newly ice-free land would also add 8 cm (3.1 in) and 57 cm (1 ft 10 in), respectively.[22] Evidence from the Pleistocene shows that partial loss can also occur at lower warming levels: Wilkes Basin is estimated to have lost enough ice to add 0.5 m (1 ft 8 in) to sea levels between 115,000 and 129,000 years ago, during the Eemian, and about 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) between 318,000 and 339,000 years ago, during the Marine Isotope Stage 9.[24]

Permafrost thaw edit

Antarctica has much less permafrost than the Arctic,[66] but what is there is also subject to thaw. Similar to how soils have a variety of chemical contaminants and nutrients in them, the permafrost in Antarctica traps various compounds. These include persistent organic pollutants (POPs) like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, many of which are known carcinogens or can cause liver damage,[100] and polychlorinated biphenyls such as HCB or DDT, which are associated with decreased reproductive success and immunohematological disorders,.[101] There are also heavy metals like mercury, lead and cadmium, which can cause endocrine disruption, DNA damage, immunotoxicity and reproductive toxicity.[102] If or when contaminated permafrost thaws, these compounds are released again. This can change the chemistry of surface waters, and bioaccumulate and biomagnify these compounds throughout the food chain.[15] Permafrost thaw also results in greenhouse gas emissions, but the limited volume of Antarctic permafrost means that it is not considered important for climate change relative to the Arctic permafrost.[66]

Impacts on ecology edit

Biodiversity loss edit

According to the Register of Antarctic Marine Species, 8,806 species had been discovered in Antarctica by 2010, yet estimates of undiscovered species suggest that there could be as many as 17,000 species in total.[103] Modern research techniques have found some species including bivalves, isopods, and pycnogonida in the Antarctic ecosystem. For instance, cruises such as ANDEEP (Antarctic, benthic deep-sea biodiversity project) sampled around 11% of the deep sea, where they found 585 species of isopod crustaceans that were previously undescribed.[104] Further research of the deep sea Antarctic is likely to yield new discoveries about its biodiversity, as while 90% of the Antarctic region is greater than 1,000 m (3,281 ft) deep, only 30% of the benthic sample locations were taken at that depth.[104]

Earlier research assumed that Antarctic biodiversity might be unaffected by climate change.[105] This is no longer held to be the case,[106] yet all but a few Antarctic species still lack detailed assessments of their vulnerability.[107] Some research suggests that at 3 °C (5.4 °F) of warming, Antarctic species richness would decline by nearly 17% and the suitable climate area by 50%.[108]

Plants edit

The continental flora in Antarctica is dominated by lichens, followed by mosses and ice algae. The plants are mainly found in coastal areas in Antarctica. The only vascular plants on continental Antarctica, Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis, are found on the Antarctic Peninsula. Because of changing climatic conditions, adaptation to the new conditions is necessary for the survival of the plants.[109] One way to deal with the problem is to grow fast when conditions are favourable. High concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause climate change with increase in temperature, which leads to (I) increase in water availability, which in turn leads to (II) increase in plant colonization and (III) local-scale population expansion, which leads to (IV) increase in biomass, trophic complexity, and increased terrestrial diversity, and (V) more complex ecosystem structure, and (VI) dominance of biotic factors that drive processes in the ecosystem.

 
Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis.

Increased photosynthesis because of elevated temperatures has been shown in two maritime vascular species (Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis).[110] Because of increased temperature, the two vascular plants have increased in population size and in their expansion range. Climate change may also have significant effects on indirect processes, for example soil nutrient availability, plant nutrient uptake, and metabolism.

Increased photosynthesis has also been found in the three continental mosses Bryum argenteum, Bryum pseudotriquetrum, and Ceratodon purpureus.[111] A drying trend is affecting terrestrial biota in East Antarctica. Drier microclimates have led to a reduction in moss health.[111] Because of acute stress, the moss colour has changed. Due to drought and other stressors, many green mosses have turned red to brown. This indicates a shift away from photosynthesis and growth towards investments in photoprotective pigments. If the environmental conditions improve, the mosses can recover.[111] If photoprotective pigments decline relative to chlorophyll, the stressed mosses will be green again. New healthy moss plants can sprout through moribund turf. At the expense of the endemic species Schistidium antarctici, two desiccation tolerant moss species, Bryum pseudotriquetrum and Ceratodon purpureus, have increased.

Significant changes that affect lichen take place on young moraines, near land recently uncovered as glaciers retreat.[112] The changes in diversity of lichens depends on the humidity of the substrate and on the duration of snow cover. Habitats that reduce the frequency of occurrence[clarification needed] are wet or moist stony soil, rock ledges, moist mosses, and meltwater runnels. Continuous deglaciation has resulted in increased colonization by pioneer lichen species. In the maritime cliff rocks and near large penguin colonies, the smallest changes in the lichen biota have been observed.

The increase in UV-B radiation because of the thinner ozone layer causes damage to cells and photosynthesis. Plants try to defend themselves against the increase in ultraviolet radiation with the help of antioxidants.[113] In UV-B exposed plants, the antioxidative enzymes superoxide dismutase, catalase, and peroxidase are synthesized. The exposed plants also synthesize the non-enzymatic antioxidants ascorbate, carotenoids, and flavonoids. All these antioxidants are also used by humans to protect themselves from the damaging effects of free radicals and reactive oxygen species. Uncertainty[clarification needed] of the changing environmental conditions causes difficulties in adaptation and survival for species in Antarctica.[109] The increase in temperature may lead to invasion of alien species and changes of the ecological communities in the Antarctic ecosystem. Increasing UV-B radiation already has a negative impact on Antarctic flora.[109]

Animals edit

 
Antarctic krill (Euphasia superba).

The marine food web in Antarctica is characterized by few trophic components[clarification needed]and low prey diversity. The predator-prey dynamics depend on fluctuations in the relative[clarification needed] short food chains. A few key species dominate the marine ecosystems. Antarctic krill (Euphasia superba) and ice krill (Euphasia crystallorophias) are examples of key species.[114] They feed on phytoplankton and are the main food for fish and penguins. These organisms are an essential component in the Antarctic food web. However their numbers are declining over time due to global warming. Their decline has dropped by an alarming 80% since the 1970s. A massive decline in their population could potentially threaten major Antarctic species such as penguins, whales and seals.[115] in the periodicity[clarification needed] of sea ice cycles because of climate change cause mismatches between earlier phytoplankton blooms, krill development, and availability for penguins.[116] The consequences for many penguins are increase in foraging trips and reduced breeding success. Absence of krill leads to increased population fluctuations and diet switches for penguins.

As penguins are highest in the Antarctic food web, they will be severely affected by climate change, but they can respond by acclimation, adaptation, or by range shift.[117] Range shift through dispersal leads to colonization elsewhere, but it leads local extinction.[118] The most important responses to climate change in Antarctica are poleward shifts, expansion, and range contraction.[116] Ice-obligate penguins are the most affected species, but the near threatened and ice-intolerant gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua) has been benefitted.[119] In maritime Antarctica the population of gentoo penguins is rapidly increasing. Due to regional climate changes, they have moved southwards. Now they colonise previously inaccessible territories. Gentoo penguins use mosses as nesting material. This nesting behaviour is new for southern penguin colonies in Antarctica. By dispersal and adaptive nesting behaviour, gentoo penguins have been remarkably successful in population growth. At the borders of the current geographic distributions, the most obvious responses to climate change occur. There the most likely response to climate change is range shift, because adaptation and microevolution in penguins are too slow.[citation needed]

 
Gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua).

In birds phenological responses are commonly observed, for example shifts in return to breeding places and timing of egg laying.[120] For penguins shift in penguin phenology in response to prey phenology is important. Often common environmental drivers determine the predator-prey synchrony.[116] Climate driven fluctuations that reduce krill availability also reduce the penguin breeding success. Although gentoo penguins share their prey resource with Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) during the breeding season, there is no resource competition between the two species.[118] This implies that current population trends in this region are governed by other factors than competition. The emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), which has a long breeding season, is constrained in space and time. In the future phenological changes in penguins are likely to be limited by their genotypes. Possible ecological traps might attract ice-intolerant species to ice-free areas without foraging grounds.[121] In the future fitness will decrease if there are no favourable conditions for life cycle events and no adaptive response.

Adélie penguins, a species of penguin found only along the coast of Antarctica, may see nearly one-third of their current population threatened by 2060 with unmitigated climate change.[122] Emperor penguin populations may be at a similar risk, with 80% of populations being at risk of extinction by 2100 with no mitigation. With Paris Agreement temperature goals in place, however, that number may decline to 31% under the 2 °C goal or 19% under the 1.5 °C goal.[123] Warming ocean temperatures have also reduced the amount of krill and copepods in the ocean surrounding Antarctica, which has led to the inability of baleen whales to recover from pre-whaling levels. Without a reversal in temperature increases, baleen whales are likely to be forced to adapt their migratory patterns or face local extinction.[124]

Non-native species edit

Tourism in Antarctica has been significantly increasing for the past 2 decades with 74,400 tourists in the summer of 2019/2020.[125] The increased human activity associated with tourism likely means there is increased opportunity for the introduction of non-native species. The potential for introduction of non-native species in an environment with rising temperatures and decreasing ice cover is especially concerning because there is an increased probability that introduced species will thrive. Climate change will likely reduce the survivability for native species, improving the chance that introduced species will thrive due to decreased competition.[126] Policy limiting the number of tourists and the permitted activities on and around the continent which mitigate the introduction of new species and limit the disturbance to native species will[clarification needed] help prevent the introduction and dominance by non-native species.[126] The continued designation of protected areas like Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASMA) and Antarctic Specially Managed Areas (ASMA) would be one way to accomplish this.

Direct human role edit

The development of Antarctica for the purposes of industry, tourism, or an increase in research facilities may put direct pressure on the continent and threaten its status as largely untouched land.[127] On the other hand, regulated tourism in Antarctica already brings about awareness and fosters the investment and public support needed to preserve Antarctica's distinctive environment,[128] although an unmitigated loss of ice on land and sea could greatly reduce its attractiveness.[129]

Policy can be used to increase climate change resilience through the protection of ecosystems. The Polar Code is an international code abided by ships that operate in Antarctica. This code includes regulations and safety measures that aid this fragile ecosystem. These regulations include operational training and assessments, the control of oil discharge, appropriate sewage disposal, and preventing pollution by toxic liquids. [130] Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPA) and Antarctic Specially Managed Areas (ASMA) are areas of Antarctica that are designated by the Antarctic Treaty for special protection of the flora and fauna.[131] Both ASPAs and ASMAs restrict entry but to different extents, with ASPAs being the highest level of protection. Designation of ASPAs has decreased 84% since the 1980s despite a rapid increase in tourism which may pose additional stress on the natural environment and ecosystems.[109] In order to alleviate the stress on Antarctic ecosystems posed by climate change and furthered by the rapid increase in tourism, much of the scientific community advocates for an increase in protected areas like ASPAs to improve Antarctica's resilience to rising temperatures.[109]

See also edit

References edit

  1. ^ a b c d e f Singh, Hansi A.; Polvani, Lorenzo M. (10 January 2020). "Low Antarctic continental climate sensitivity due to high ice sheet orography". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 3 (1): 39. Bibcode:2020npjCA...3...39S. doi:10.1038/s41612-020-00143-w. S2CID 222179485.
  2. ^ a b c Steig, Eric; Schneider, David; Rutherford, Scott; Mann, Michael E.; Comiso, Josefino; Shindell, Drew (1 January 2009). "Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year". Arts & Sciences Faculty Publications.
  3. ^ a b c d "Impacts of climate change". Discovering Antarctica. Retrieved 15 May 2022.
  4. ^ a b Clem, Kyle R.; Fogt, Ryan L.; Turner, John; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Marshall, Gareth J.; Miller, James R.; Renwick, James A. (August 2020). "Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades". Nature Climate Change. 10 (8): 762–770. Bibcode:2020NatCC..10..762C. doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0815-z. ISSN 1758-6798. S2CID 220261150.
  5. ^ a b c Xin, Meijiao; Clem, Kyle R; Turner, John; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Zhu, Jiang; Cai, Wenju; Li, Xichen (2 June 2023). "West-warming East-cooling trend over Antarctica reversed since early 21st century driven by large-scale circulation variation". Environmental Research Letters. 18 (6): 064034. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acd8d4.
  6. ^ a b c Bourgeois, Timothée; Goris, Nadine; Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry F. (17 January 2022). "Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S". Nature Communications. 13 (1): 340. Bibcode:2022NatCo..13..340B. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5. PMC 8764023. PMID 35039511.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H.T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Edwards, T.L.; Golledge, N.R.; Hemer, M.; Kopp, R.E.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A. (2021). Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A.; Connors, S.L.; Péan, C.; Berger, S.; Caud, N.; Chen, Y.; Goldfarb, L. (eds.). "Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change" (PDF). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: 1270–1272.
  8. ^ a b Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias (1 November 2017). "Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways". Environmental Research Letters. 12 (11): 114002. Bibcode:2017ERL....12k4002N. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6. hdl:20.500.11850/230713.
  9. ^ a b L. Bamber, Jonathan; Oppenheimer, Michael; E. Kopp, Robert; P. Aspinall, Willy; M. Cooke, Roger (May 2019). "Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (23): 11195–11200. Bibcode:2019PNAS..11611195B. doi:10.1073/pnas.1817205116. PMC 6561295. PMID 31110015.
  10. ^ a b Horton, Benjamin P.; Khan, Nicole S.; Cahill, Niamh; Lee, Janice S. H.; Shaw, Timothy A.; Garner, Andra J.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan (8 May 2020). "Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 3 (1): 18. Bibcode:2020npjCA...3...18H. doi:10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5. hdl:10356/143900. S2CID 218541055.
  11. ^ a b Silvano, Alessandro; Rintoul, Stephen Rich; Peña-Molino, Beatriz; Hobbs, William Richard; van Wijk, Esmee; Aoki, Shigeru; Tamura, Takeshi; Williams, Guy Darvall (18 April 2018). "Freshening by glacial meltwater enhances the melting of ice shelves and reduces the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water". Science Advances. 4 (4): eaap9467. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aap9467. PMC 5906079. PMID 29675467.
  12. ^ a b Pan, Xianliang L.; Li, Bofeng F.; Watanabe, Yutaka W. (10 January 2022). "Intense ocean freshening from melting glacier around the Antarctica during early twenty-first century". Scientific Reports. 12 (1): 383. Bibcode:2022NatSR..12..383P. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-04231-6. ISSN 2045-2322. PMC 8748732. PMID 35013425.
  13. ^ a b c d e Lenton, T. M.; Armstrong McKay, D.I.; Loriani, S.; Abrams, J.F.; Lade, S.J.; Donges, J.F.; Milkoreit, M.; Powell, T.; Smith, S.R.; Zimm, C.; Buxton, J.E.; Daube, Bruce C.; Krummel, Paul B.; Loh, Zoë; Luijkx, Ingrid T. (2023). The Global Tipping Points Report 2023 (Report). University of Exeter.
  14. ^ a b c d Logan, Tyne (29 March 2023). "Landmark study projects 'dramatic' changes to Southern Ocean by 2050". ABC News.
  15. ^ a b Potapowicz, Joanna; Szumińska, Danuta; Szopińska, Małgorzata; Polkowska, Żaneta (15 February 2019). "The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of anthropogenic pollution released from the permafrost: Part I. Case study of Antarctica". Science of the Total Environment. 651 (Pt 1): 1534–1548. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.168. ISSN 0048-9697. PMID 30360282. S2CID 53093132.
  16. ^ a b Carlson, Anders E; Walczak, Maureen H; Beard, Brian L; Laffin, Matthew K; Stoner, Joseph S; Hatfield, Robert G (10 December 2018). Absence of the West Antarctic ice sheet during the last interglaciation. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting.
  17. ^ a b Lau, Sally C. Y.; Wilson, Nerida G.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Naish, Tim R.; Watts, Phillip C.; Silva, Catarina N. S.; Cooke, Ira R.; Allcock, A. Louise; Mark, Felix C.; Linse, Katrin (21 December 2023). "Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial". Science. 382 (6677): 1384–1389. Bibcode:2023Sci...382.1384L. doi:10.1126/science.ade0664. PMID 38127761. S2CID 266436146.
  18. ^ a b A. Naughten, Kaitlin; R. Holland, Paul; De Rydt, Jan (23 October 2023). "Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century". Nature Climate Change. 13 (11): 1222–1228. Bibcode:2023NatCC..13.1222N. doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x. S2CID 264476246.
  19. ^ a b Garbe, Julius; Albrecht, Torsten; Levermann, Anders; Donges, Jonathan F.; Winkelmann, Ricarda (2020). "The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet". Nature. 585 (7826): 538–544. Bibcode:2020Natur.585..538G. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5. PMID 32968257. S2CID 221885420.
  20. ^ a b c d e f Armstrong McKay, David; Abrams, Jesse; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Sakschewski, Boris; Loriani, Sina; Fetzer, Ingo; Cornell, Sarah; Rockström, Johan; Staal, Arie; Lenton, Timothy (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points". Science. 377 (6611): eabn7950. doi:10.1126/science.abn7950. hdl:10871/131584. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 36074831. S2CID 252161375.
  21. ^ a b c d e f Armstrong McKay, David (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points – paper explainer". climatetippingpoints.info. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  22. ^ a b c d e Pan, Linda; Powell, Evelyn M.; Latychev, Konstantin; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Creveling, Jessica R.; Gomez, Natalya; Hoggard, Mark J.; Clark, Peter U. (30 April 2021). "Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse". Science Advances. 7 (18). Bibcode:2021SciA....7.7787P. doi:10.1126/sciadv.abf7787. PMC 8087405. PMID 33931453.
  23. ^ a b Fretwell, P.; et al. (28 February 2013). "Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica" (PDF). The Cryosphere. 7 (1): 390. Bibcode:2013TCry....7..375F. doi:10.5194/tc-7-375-2013. S2CID 13129041. Archived (PDF) from the original on 16 February 2020. Retrieved 6 January 2014.
  24. ^ a b c Crotti, Ilaria; Quiquet, Aurélien; Landais, Amaelle; Stenni, Barbara; Wilson, David J.; Severi, Mirko; Mulvaney, Robert; Wilhelms, Frank; Barbante, Carlo; Frezzotti, Massimo (10 September 2022). "Wilkes subglacial basin ice sheet response to Southern Ocean warming during late Pleistocene interglacials". Nature Communications. 13 (1): 5328. Bibcode:2022NatCo..13.5328C. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32847-3. PMC 9464198. PMID 36088458.
  25. ^ a b c Stewart, K. D.; Hogg, A. McC.; England, M. H.; Waugh, D. W. (2 November 2020). "Response of the Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation to Extreme Southern Annular Mode Conditions". Geophysical Research Letters. 47 (22): e2020GL091103. Bibcode:2020GeoRL..4791103S. doi:10.1029/2020GL091103. hdl:1885/274441. S2CID 229063736.
  26. ^ John Theodore, Houghton, ed. (2001). "Figure 9.8: Multi-model annual mean zonal temperature change (top), zonal mean temperature change range (middle) and the zonal mean change divided by the multi-model standard deviation of the mean change (bottom) for the CMIP2 simulations". Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-80767-8. Archived from the original on 30 March 2016. Retrieved 18 December 2019.
  27. ^ J. H. Christensen; B. Hewitson; A. Busuioc; A. Chen; X. Gao; I. Held; R. Jones; R.K. Kolli; W.-T. Kwon; R. Laprise; V. Magaña Rueda; L. Mearns; C. G. Menéndez; J. Räisänen; A. Rinke; A. Sarr; P. Whetton (2007). Regional Climate Projections (In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (PDF) (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 15 December 2007. Retrieved 5 November 2007.
  28. ^ Chapman, William L.; Walsh, John E. (2007). "A Synthesis of Antarctic Temperatures". Journal of Climate. 20 (16): 4096–4117. Bibcode:2007JCli...20.4096C. doi:10.1175/JCLI4236.1.
  29. ^ Comiso, Josefino C. (2000). "Variability and Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures from In Situ and Satellite Infrared Measurements". Journal of Climate. 13 (10): 1674–1696. Bibcode:2000JCli...13.1674C. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1674:vatias>2.0.co;2. PDF available at AMS Online
  30. ^ Thompson, David W. J.; Solomon, Susan (2002). "Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change" (PDF). Science. 296 (5569): 895–899. Bibcode:2002Sci...296..895T. doi:10.1126/science.1069270. PMID 11988571. S2CID 7732719. Archived from the original (PDF) on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 14 August 2008. PDF available at Annular Modes Website
  31. ^ a b Doran, Peter T.; Priscu, JC; Lyons, WB; et al. (January 2002). "Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response" (PDF). Nature. 415 (6871): 517–20. doi:10.1038/nature710. PMID 11793010. S2CID 387284. Archived from the original (PDF) on 11 December 2004.
  32. ^ Obryk, M. K.; Doran, P. T.; Fountain, A. G.; Myers, M.; McKay, C. P. (16 July 2020). "Climate From the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, 1986–2017: Surface Air Temperature Trends and Redefined Summer Season". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 125 (13). Bibcode:2020JGRD..12532180O. doi:10.1029/2019JD032180. ISSN 2169-897X. S2CID 219738421.
  33. ^ "Scientific winds blow hot and cold in Antarctica". CNN. 25 January 2002. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  34. ^ Chang, Kenneth (2 April 2002). "The Melting (Freezing) of Antarctica; Deciphering Contradictory Climate Patterns Is Largely a Matter of Ice". The New York Times. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  35. ^ Derbyshire, David (14 January 2002). "Antarctic cools in warmer world". The Daily Telegraph. London. Archived from the original on 2 June 2014. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  36. ^ Peter N. Spotts (18 January 2002). "Guess what? Antarctica's getting colder, not warmer". The Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  37. ^ Bijal P. Trivedi (25 January 2002). "Antarctica Gives Mixed Signals on Warming". National Geographic. Archived from the original on 28 January 2002. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  38. ^ "Antarctic cooling pushing life closer to the edge". USA Today. 16 January 2002. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  39. ^ a b Peter Doran (27 July 2006). "Cold, Hard Facts". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 11 April 2009. Retrieved 14 August 2008.
  40. ^ Davidson, Keay (4 February 2002). "Media goofed on Antarctic data / Global warming interpretation irks scientists". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  41. ^ Crichton, Michael (2004). State of Fear. HarperCollins, New York. p. 109. ISBN 978-0-06-621413-9. The data show that one relatively small area called the Antarctic Peninsula is melting and calving huge icebergs. That's what gets reported year after year. But the continent as a whole is getting colder, and the ice is getting thicker. First Edition
  42. ^ Eric Steig; Gavin Schmidt (3 December 2004). "Antarctic cooling, global warming?". Real Climate. Retrieved 14 August 2008. At first glance this seems to contradict the idea of "global" warming, but one needs to be careful before jumping to this conclusion. A rise in the global mean temperature does not imply universal warming. Dynamical effects (changes in the winds and ocean circulation) can have just as large an impact, locally as the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. The temperature change in any particular region will in fact be a combination of radiation-related changes (through greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone and the like) and dynamical effects. Since the winds tend to only move heat from one place to another, their impact will tend to cancel out in the global mean.
  43. ^ "America Reacts To Speech Debunking Media Global Warming Alarmism". U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. 28 September 2006. Archived from the original on 5 March 2013. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  44. ^ "Climate Change—Our Research". British Antarctic Survey. Archived from the original on 7 February 2006.
  45. ^ NASA (2007). "Two Decades of Temperature Change in Antarctica". Earth Observatory Newsroom. Archived from the original on 20 September 2008. Retrieved 14 August 2008. NASA image by Robert Simmon, based on data from Joey Comiso, GSFC.
  46. ^ Kenneth Chang (21 January 2009). "Warming in Antarctica Looks Certain". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 13 November 2014. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  47. ^ Ding, Qinghua; Eric J. Steig; David S. Battisti; Marcel Küttel (10 April 2011). "Winter warming in West Antarctica caused by central tropical Pacific warming". Nature Geoscience. 4 (6): 398–403. Bibcode:2011NatGe...4..398D. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.459.8689. doi:10.1038/ngeo1129.
  48. ^ A. Orsi; Bruce D. Cornuelle; J. Severinghaus (2012). "Little Ice Age cold interval in West Antarctica: Evidence from borehole temperature at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide". Geophysical Research Letters. 39 (9): L09710. Bibcode:2012GeoRL..39.9710O. doi:10.1029/2012GL051260.
  49. ^ Bromwich, D. H.; Nicolas, J. P.; Monaghan, A. J.; Lazzara, M. A.; Keller, L. M.; Weidner, G. A.; Wilson, A. B. (2012). "Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth". Nature Geoscience. 6 (2): 139. Bibcode:2013NatGe...6..139B. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.394.1974. doi:10.1038/ngeo1671.
    Steig, Eric (23 December 2012). "The heat is on in West Antarctica". RealClimate. Retrieved 20 January 2013.
  50. ^ J P. Nicolas; J. P.; D. H. Bromwich (2014). "New reconstruction of Antarctic near-surface temperatures: Multidecadal trends and reliability of global reanalyses". Journal of Climate. 27 (21): 8070–8093. Bibcode:2014JCli...27.8070N. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.668.6627. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00733.1. S2CID 21537289.
  51. ^ McGrath, Matt (23 December 2012). "West Antarctic Ice Sheet warming twice earlier estimate". BBC News. Retrieved 16 February 2013.
  52. ^ Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Franzke, Christian L. E.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (16 April 2015). "Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica". Climate Dynamics. 46 (1–2): 263–271. Bibcode:2016ClDy...46..263L. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2582-5. S2CID 131723421.
  53. ^ Dalaiden, Quentin; Schurer, Andrew P.; Kirchmeier-Young, Megan C.; Goosse, Hugues; Hegerl, Gabriele C. (24 August 2022). "West Antarctic Surface Climate Changes Since the Mid-20th Century Driven by Anthropogenic Forcing" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 49 (16). Bibcode:2022GeoRL..4999543D. doi:10.1029/2022GL099543. hdl:20.500.11820/64ecd5a1-af19-43e8-9d34-da7274cc4ae0. S2CID 251854055.
  54. ^ Turner, John; Lu, Hua; White, Ian; King, John C.; Phillips, Tony; Hosking, J. Scott; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Marshall, Gareth J.; Mulvaney, Robert; Deb, Pranab (2016). "Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability" (PDF). Nature. 535 (7612): 411–415. Bibcode:2016Natur.535..411T. doi:10.1038/nature18645. PMID 27443743. S2CID 205249862.
  55. ^ Steig, Eric J. (2016). "Cooling in the Antarctic". Nature. 535 (7612): 358–359. doi:10.1038/535358a. PMID 27443735.
  56. ^ Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Branstator, Grant; Phillips, Adam S. (2014). "Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming". Nature Climate Change. 4 (10): 911–916. Bibcode:2014NatCC...4..911T. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2341.
  57. ^ Chang, Kenneth (3 May 2002). "Ozone Hole Is Now Seen as a Cause for Antarctic Cooling". The New York Times. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  58. ^ Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A. (2004). "Southern Hemisphere climate response to ozone changes and greenhouse gas increases". Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 (18): L18209. Bibcode:2004GeoRL..3118209S. doi:10.1029/2004GL020724.
  59. ^ Thompson, David W. J.; Solomon, Susan; Kushner, Paul J.; England, Matthew H.; Grise, Kevin M.; Karoly, David J. (23 October 2011). "Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change". Nature Geoscience. 4 (11): 741–749. Bibcode:2011NatGe...4..741T. doi:10.1038/ngeo1296. S2CID 40243634.
  60. ^ Meredith, M.; Sommerkorn, M.; Cassotta, S; Derksen, C.; et al. (2019). "Chapter 3: Polar Regions" (PDF). IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. p. 212.
  61. ^ Xin, Meijiao; Li, Xichen; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Cai, Wenju; Zhu, Jiang; Turner, John; Clem, Kyle R; Song, Chentao; Wang, Wenzhu; Hou, Yurong (17 May 2023). "A broadscale shift in antarctic temperature trends". Climate Dynamics. 61 (9–10): 4623–4641. Bibcode:2023ClDy...61.4623X. doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06825-4. S2CID 258777741.
  62. ^ Stammerjohn, Sharon E.; Scambos, Ted A. (August 2020). "Warming reaches the South Pole". Nature Climate Change. 10 (8): 710–711. Bibcode:2020NatCC..10..710S. doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0827-8. ISSN 1758-6798. S2CID 220260051.
  63. ^ Larson, Christina (8 February 2020). "Antarctica appears to have broken a heat record". phys.org.
  64. ^ Hughes, Kevin A.; Convey, Peter; Turner, John (1 October 2021). "Developing resilience to climate change impacts in Antarctica: An evaluation of Antarctic Treaty System protected area policy". Environmental Science & Policy. 124: 12–22. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.05.023. ISSN 1462-9011. S2CID 236282417.
  65. ^ a b Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.
  66. ^ a b c Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
  67. ^ a b Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
  68. ^ Thackeray, Chad W.; Fletcher, Christopher G. (June 2016). "Snow albedo feedback: Current knowledge, importance, outstanding issues and future directions". Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment. 40 (3): 392–408. doi:10.1177/0309133315620999. ISSN 0309-1333. S2CID 130252885.
  69. ^ Goelles, T.; Bøggild, C. E. (26 February 2015). "Albedo reduction caused by black carbon and dust accumulation: a quantitive model applied to the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet". The Cryosphere Discussions. 9 (1): 1345–1381. Bibcode:2015TCD.....9.1345G. doi:10.5194/tcd-9-1345-2015.
  70. ^ Cereceda-Balic, Francisco; Vidal, Víctor; Ruggeri, María Florencia; González, Humberto E. (15 November 2020). "Black carbon pollution in snow and its impact on albedo near the Chilean stations on the Antarctic peninsula: First results". Science of the Total Environment. 743: 140801. Bibcode:2020ScTEn.743n0801C. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140801. ISSN 0048-9697. PMID 32673927. S2CID 220608494.
  71. ^ a b Cordero, Raúl R.; Sepúlveda, Edgardo; Feron, Sarah; Damiani, Alessandro; Fernandoy, Francisco; Neshyba, Steven; Rowe, Penny M.; Asencio, Valentina; Carrasco, Jorge; Alfonso, Juan A.; Llanillo, Pedro (22 February 2022). "Black carbon footprint of human presence in Antarctica". Nature Communications. 13 (1): 984. Bibcode:2022NatCo..13..984C. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28560-w. ISSN 2041-1723. PMC 8863810. PMID 35194040.
  72. ^ IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
  73. ^ von Schuckmann, K.; Cheng, L.; Palmer, M. D.; Hansen, J.; et al. (7 September 2020). "Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?". Earth System Science Data. 12 (3): 2013–2041. Bibcode:2020ESSD...12.2013V. doi:10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020. hdl:20.500.11850/443809.   Text was copied from this source, which is available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
  74. ^ Long, Matthew C.; Stephens, Britton B.; McKain, Kathryn; Sweeney, Colm; Keeling, Ralph F.; Kort, Eric A.; Morgan, Eric J.; Bent, Jonathan D.; Chandra, Naveen; Chevallier, Frederic; Commane, Róisín; Daube, Bruce C.; Krummel, Paul B.; Loh, Zoë; Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Munro, David; Patra, Prabir; Peters, Wouter; Ramonet, Michel; Rödenbeck, Christian; Stavert, Ann; Tans, Pieter; Wofsy, Steven C. (2 December 2021). "Strong Southern Ocean carbon uptake evident in airborne observations". Science. 374 (6572): 1275–1280. Bibcode:2021Sci...374.1275L. doi:10.1126/science.abi4355. PMID 34855495. S2CID 244841359.
  75. ^ Terhaar, Jens; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat (28 April 2021). "Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon sink constrained by sea surface salinity" (PDF). Science Advances. 7 (18): 1275–1280. Bibcode:2021Sci...374.1275L. doi:10.1126/science.abi4355. PMID 34855495. S2CID 244841359.
  76. ^ a b c "NOAA Scientists Detect a Reshaping of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Southern Ocean". NOAA. 29 March 2023.
  77. ^ Pellichero, Violaine; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Chapman, Christopher C.; Downes, Stephanie M. (3 May 2018). "The southern ocean meridional overturning in the sea-ice sector is driven by freshwater fluxes". Nature Communications. 9 (1): 1789. Bibcode:2018NatCo...9.1789P. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04101-2. PMC 5934442. PMID 29724994.
  78. ^ a b Lee, Sang-Ki; Lumpkin, Rick; Gomez, Fabian; Yeager, Stephen; Lopez, Hosmay; Takglis, Filippos; Dong, Shenfu; Aguiar, Wilton; Kim, Dongmin; Baringer, Molly (13 March 2023). "Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean". Communications Earth & Environment. 4 (1): 69. Bibcode:2023ComEE...4...69L. doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00727-3.
  79. ^ Zhou, Shenjie; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Meredith, Michael P.; Abrahamsen, E. Povl; Holland, Paul R.; Silvano, Alessandro; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Østerhus, Svein (12 June 2023). "Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes". Nature Climate Change. 13 (6): 701–709. Bibcode:2023NatCC..13..537G. doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01667-8.
  80. ^ Silvano, Alessandro; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Zhou, Shenjie (17 June 2023). "Slowing deep Southern Ocean current may be linked to natural climate cycle—but melting Antarctic ice is still a concern". The Conversation.
  81. ^ Aoki, S.; Yamazaki, K.; Hirano, D.; Katsumata, K.; Shimada, K.; Kitade, Y.; Sasaki, H.; Murase, H. (15 September 2020). "Reversal of freshening trend of Antarctic Bottom Water in the Australian-Antarctic Basin during 2010s". Scientific Reports. 10 (1): 14415. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-71290-6. PMC 7492216. PMID 32934273.
  82. ^ a b Li, Qian; England, Matthew H.; Hogg, Andrew McC.; Rintoul, Stephen R.; Morrison, Adele K. (29 March 2023). "Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic meltwater". Nature. 615 (7954): 841–847. Bibcode:2023Natur.615..841L. doi:10.1038/s41586-023-05762-w. PMID 36991191. S2CID 257807573.
  83. ^ Haumann, F. Alexander; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias; Frenger, Ivy; Kern, Stefan (September 2016). "Sea-ice transport driving Southern Ocean salinity and its recent trends". Nature. 537 (7618): 89–92. Bibcode:2016Natur.537...89H. doi:10.1038/nature19101. hdl:20.500.11850/120143. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 27582222. S2CID 205250191.
  84. ^ Liu, Y.; Moore, J. K.; Primeau, F.; Wang, W. L. (22 December 2022). "Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation". Nature Climate Change. 13: 83–90. doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01555-7. OSTI 2242376. S2CID 255028552.
  85. ^ King, M. A.; Bingham, R. J.; Moore, P.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Bentley, M. J.; Milne, G. A. (2012). "Lower satellite-gravimetry estimates of Antarctic sea-level contribution". Nature. 491 (7425): 586–589. Bibcode:2012Natur.491..586K. doi:10.1038/nature11621. PMID 23086145. S2CID 4414976.
  86. ^ a b IMBIE team (13 June 2018). "Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017". Nature. 558 (7709): 219–222. Bibcode:2018Natur.558..219I. doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y. hdl:2268/225208. PMID 29899482. S2CID 49188002.
  87. ^ Zwally, H. Jay; Robbins, John W.; Luthcke, Scott B.; Loomis, Bryant D.; Rémy, Frédérique (29 March 2021). "Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet 1992–2016: reconciling results from GRACE gravimetry with ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat altimetry". Journal of Glaciology. 67 (263): 533–559. Bibcode:2021JGlac..67..533Z. doi:10.1017/jog.2021.8. Although their methods of interpolation or extrapolation for areas with unobserved output velocities have an insufficient description for the evaluation of associated errors, such errors in previous results (Rignot and others, 2008) caused large overestimates of the mass losses as detailed in Zwally and Giovinetto (Zwally and Giovinetto, 2011).
  88. ^ Pattyn, Frank (16 July 2018). "The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling". Nature Communications. 9 (1): 2728. Bibcode:2018NatCo...9.2728P. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z. PMC 6048022. PMID 30013142.
  89. ^ Robel, Alexander A.; Seroussi, Hélène; Roe, Gerard H. (23 July 2019). "Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (30): 14887–14892. Bibcode:2019PNAS..11614887R. doi:10.1073/pnas.1904822116. PMC 6660720. PMID 31285345.
  90. ^ Perkins, Sid (17 June 2021). "Collapse may not always be inevitable for marine ice cliffs". ScienceNews. Retrieved 9 January 2023.
  91. ^ DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Alley, Richard B.; Velicogna, Isabella; Gasson, Edward; Gomez, Natalya; Sadai, Shaina; Condron, Alan; Gilford, Daniel M.; Ashe, Erica L.; Kopp, Robert E. (May 2021). "The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica". Nature. 593 (7857): 83–89. Bibcode:2021Natur.593...83D. doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0. hdl:10871/125843. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 33953408. S2CID 233868268.
  92. ^ a b "Anticipating Future Sea Levels". EarthObservatory.NASA.gov. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 2021. Archived from the original on 7 July 2021.
  93. ^ Bamber, J.L.; Riva, R.E.M.; Vermeersen, B.L.A.; LeBrocq, A.M. (14 May 2009). "Reassessment of the Potential Sea-Level Rise from a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet". Science. 324 (5929): 901–903. Bibcode:2009Sci...324..901B. doi:10.1126/science.1169335. PMID 19443778. S2CID 11083712.
  94. ^ Voosen, Paul (18 December 2018). "Discovery of recent Antarctic ice sheet collapse raises fears of a new global flood". Science. Retrieved 28 December 2018.
  95. ^ Turney, Chris S. M.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Sebille, Erik van; Jones, Richard T.; Etheridge, David; Rubino, Mauro; Thornton, David P.; Davies, Siwan M.; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk (11 February 2020). "Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117 (8): 3996–4006. Bibcode:2020PNAS..117.3996T. doi:10.1073/pnas.1902469117. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 7049167. PMID 32047039.
  96. ^ AHMED, Issam. "Antarctic octopus DNA reveals ice sheet collapse closer than thought". phys.org. Retrieved 23 December 2023.
  97. ^ Poynting, Mark (24 October 2023). "Sea-level rise: West Antarctic ice shelf melt 'unavoidable'". BBC. Retrieved 26 October 2023.
  98. ^ Wolovick, Michael; Moore, John; Keefer, Bowie (27 March 2023). "Feasibility of ice sheet conservation using seabed anchored curtains". PNAS Nexus. 2 (3): pgad053. doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad053. PMC 10062297. PMID 37007716.
  99. ^ Wolovick, Michael; Moore, John; Keefer, Bowie (27 March 2023). "The potential for stabilizing Amundsen Sea glaciers via underwater curtains". PNAS Nexus. 2 (4): pgad103. doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad103. PMC 10118300. PMID 37091546.
  100. ^ Curtosi, Antonio; Pelletier, Emilien; Vodopivez, Cristian L.; Cormack, Walter P. Mac (August 2009). "Distribution of PAHs in the water column, sediments and biota of Potter Cove, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica". Antarctic Science. 21 (4): 329–339. Bibcode:2009AntSc..21..329C. doi:10.1017/S0954102009002004. ISSN 1365-2079. S2CID 130818024.
  101. ^ Jara-Carrasco, S.; González, M.; González-Acuña, D.; Chiang, G.; Celis, J.; Espejo, W.; Mattatall, P.; Barra, R. (August 2015). "Potential immunohaematological effects of persistent organic pollutants on chinstrap penguin". Antarctic Science. 27 (4): 373–381. Bibcode:2015AntSc..27..373J. doi:10.1017/S0954102015000012. ISSN 0954-1020. S2CID 53415356.
  102. ^ Goutte, Aurélie; Cherel, Yves; Churlaud, Carine; Ponthus, Jean-Pierre; Massé, Guillaume; Bustamante, Paco (15 December 2015). "Trace elements in Antarctic fish species and the influence of foraging habitats and dietary habits on mercury levels". Science of the Total Environment. 538: 743–749. Bibcode:2015ScTEn.538..743G. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.103. ISSN 0048-9697. PMID 26327642.
  103. ^ Gutt, Julian; Sirenko, Boris I.; Smirnov, Igor S.; Arntz, Wolf E. (March 2004). "How many macrozoobenthic species might inhabit the Antarctic shelf?". Antarctic Science. 16 (1): 11–16. Bibcode:2004AntSc..16...11G. doi:10.1017/S0954102004001750. ISSN 1365-2079. S2CID 86092653.
  104. ^ a b Griffiths, Huw J. (2 August 2010). "Antarctic Marine Biodiversity – What Do We Know About the Distribution of Life in the Southern Ocean?". PLOS ONE. 5 (8): e11683. Bibcode:2010PLoSO...511683G. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0011683. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 2914006. PMID 20689841.
  105. ^ Wall, Diana H. (2005). "Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in terrestrial habitats of Antarctica". Antarctic Science. 17 (4): 523–531. Bibcode:2005AntSc..17..523W. doi:10.1017/S0954102005002944. S2CID 130131739.
  106. ^ Trathan, P.n; Forcada, J; Murphy, E.j (29 December 2007). "Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 362 (1488): 2351–2365. doi:10.1098/rstb.2006.1953. PMC 2443178. PMID 17553770.
  107. ^ Constable, Andrew J.; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Corney, Stuart P.; Arrigo, Kevin R.; Barbraud, Christophe; Barnes, David K. A.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Boyd, Philip W.; Brandt, Angelika; Costa, Daniel P.; Davidson, Andrew T. (2014). "Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota". Global Change Biology. 20 (10): 3004–3025. Bibcode:2014GCBio..20.3004C. doi:10.1111/gcb.12623. ISSN 1365-2486. PMID 24802817. S2CID 7584865.
  108. ^ Nunez, Sarahi; Arets, Eric; Alkemade, Rob; Verwer, Caspar; Leemans, Rik (2019). "Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: Is below 2 °C enough?". Climatic Change. 154 (3–4): 351–365. Bibcode:2019ClCh..154..351N. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02420-x. S2CID 181651307.
  109. ^ a b c d e Singh, Jaswant; Singh, Rudra P.; Khare, Rajni (December 2018). "Influence of climate change on Antarctic flora". Polar Science. 18: 94–101. Bibcode:2018PolSc..18...94S. doi:10.1016/j.polar.2018.05.006. S2CID 133659933.
  110. ^ Cavieres, Lohengrin A.; Sáez, Patricia; Sanhueza, Carolina; Sierra-Almeida, Angela; Rabert, Claudia; Corcuera, Luis J.; Alberdi, Miren; Bravo, León A. (March 2016). "Ecophysiological traits of Antarctic vascular plants: their importance in the responses to climate change". Plant Ecology. 217 (3): 343–358. Bibcode:2016PlEco.217..343C. doi:10.1007/s11258-016-0585-x. ISSN 1385-0237. S2CID 8030745.
  111. ^ a b c Robinson, Sharon A.; King, Diana H.; Bramley-Alves, Jessica; Waterman, Melinda J.; Ashcroft, Michael B.; Wasley, Jane; Turnbull, Johanna D.; Miller, Rebecca E.; Ryan-Colton, Ellen; Benny, Taylor; Mullany, Kathryn (October 2018). "Rapid change in East Antarctic terrestrial vegetation in response to regional drying". Nature Climate Change. 8 (10): 879–884. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..879R. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0280-0. ISSN 1758-678X. S2CID 92381608.
  112. ^ Olech, Maria; Słaby, Agnieszka (August 2016). "Changes in the lichen biota of the Lions Rump area, King George Island, Antarctica, over the last 20 years". Polar Biology. 39 (8): 1499–1503. Bibcode:2016PoBio..39.1499O. doi:10.1007/s00300-015-1863-0. ISSN 0722-4060. S2CID 16099068.
  113. ^ Winkel-Shirley, Brenda (June 2002). "Biosynthesis of flavonoids and effects of stress". Current Opinion in Plant Biology. 5 (3): 218–223. doi:10.1016/S1369-5266(02)00256-X. PMID 11960739.
  114. ^ Smetacek, Victor; Nicol, Stephen (September 2005). "Polar ocean ecosystems in a changing world". Nature. 437 (7057): 362–368. Bibcode:2005Natur.437..362S. doi:10.1038/nature04161. ISSN 0028-0836. PMID 16163347. S2CID 4388240.
  115. ^ "Impacts of climate change". Discovering Antarctica. Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  116. ^ a b c Hinke, Jefferson T.; Salwicka, Kasia; Trivelpiece, Susan G.; Watters, George M.; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z. (10 September 2007). "Divergent responses of Pygoscelis penguins reveal a common environmental driver". Oecologia. 153 (4): 845–855. Bibcode:2007Oecol.153..845H. doi:10.1007/s00442-007-0781-4. ISSN 0029-8549. PMID 17566778. S2CID 12800009.
  117. ^ Davis, Margaret B.; Shaw, Ruth G.; Etterson, Julie R. (July 2005). "Evolutionary Responses to Changing Climate". Ecology. 86 (7): 1704–1714. Bibcode:2005Ecol...86.1704D. doi:10.1890/03-0788. hdl:11299/178230. ISSN 0012-9658.
  118. ^ a b Pickett, Erin P.; Fraser, William R.; Patterson-Fraser, Donna L.; Cimino, Megan A.; Torres, Leigh G.; Friedlaender, Ari S. (October 2018). "Spatial niche partitioning may promote coexistence of Pygoscelis penguins as climate-induced sympatry occurs". Ecology and Evolution. 8 (19): 9764–9778. Bibcode:2018EcoEv...8.9764P. doi:10.1002/ece3.4445. ISSN 2045-7758. PMC 6202752. PMID 30386573.
  119. ^ Dykyy, Ihor; Bedernichek, Tymur (January 2022). "Gentoo Penguins (Pygoscelis papua) started using mosses as nesting material in the southernmost colony on the Antarctic Peninsula (Cape Tuxen, Graham Land)". Polar Biology. 45 (1): 149–152. Bibcode:2022PoBio..45..149D. doi:10.1007/s00300-021-02968-4. ISSN 0722-4060. S2CID 244363982.
  120. ^ Visser, Marcel E.; Both, Christiaan; Lambrechts, Marcel M. (2004), "Global Climate Change Leads to Mistimed Avian Reproduction", Advances in Ecological Research, vol. 35, Elsevier, pp. 89–110, doi:10.1016/s0065-2504(04)35005-1, ISBN 978-0-12-013935-4, retrieved 14 May 2022
  121. ^ Forcada, Jaume; Trathan, Philip N. (July 2009). "Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern Ocean". Global Change Biology. 15 (7): 1618–1630. Bibcode:2009GCBio..15.1618F. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01909.x. S2CID 86404493.
  122. ^ Cimino, Megan A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Oliver, Matthew J. (June 2016). "Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change". Scientific Reports. 6 (1): 28785. Bibcode:2016NatSR...628785C. doi:10.1038/srep28785. PMC 4926113. PMID 27352849.
  123. ^ Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Iles, David; Labrousse, Sara; Landrum, Laura; Garnier, Jimmy; Caswell, Hal; Weimerskirch, Henri; LaRue, Michelle; Ji, Rubao; Barbraud, Christophe (March 2020). "The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins" (PDF). Global Change Biology. 26 (3): 1170–1184. Bibcode:2020GCBio..26.1170J. doi:10.1111/gcb.14864. PMID 31696584. S2CID 207964725.
  124. ^ Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D.; Plagányi, Éva E.; Brown, Christopher; Richardson, Anthony J.; Matear, Richard (April 2019). "Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change". Global Change Biology. 25 (4): 1263–1281. Bibcode:2019GCBio..25.1263T. doi:10.1111/gcb.14573. PMC 6850638. PMID 30807685.
  125. ^ IAATO. (2018). IAATO Overview of Antarctic Tourism: 2018–19 Season and Preliminary Estimates for 2019–20 Season.
  126. ^ a b McCarthy, Arlie H.; Peck, Lloyd S.; Hughes, Kevin A.; Aldridge, David C. (July 2019). "Antarctica: The final frontier for marine biological invasions". Global Change Biology. 25 (7): 2221–2241. Bibcode:2019GCBio..25.2221M. doi:10.1111/gcb.14600. ISSN 1354-1013. PMC 6849521. PMID 31016829.
  127. ^ Liggett, Daniela; Frame, Bob; Gilbert, Neil; Morgan, Fraser (September 2017). "Is it all going south? Four future scenarios for Antarctica". Polar Record. 53 (5): 459–478. Bibcode:2017PoRec..53..459L. doi:10.1017/S0032247417000390.
  128. ^ "Impacts of tourism in Antarctica". www.iucn.org. Retrieved 1 December 2023.
  129. ^ "How to save Antarctica (and the rest of Earth too) | Imperial News | Imperial College London". Imperial News. 13 June 2018. Retrieved 1 December 2023.
  130. ^ "Polar Code". ww2.eagle.org. Retrieved 1 December 2023.
  131. ^ "Area Protection and Management / Monuments | Antarctic Treaty". www.ats.aq. Retrieved 27 April 2022.