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2012 United States presidential election in Indiana

(Redirected from 2012 Indiana Democratic presidential primary)

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

The 2012 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Indiana voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. Romney and Ryan carried Indiana with 54.13% of the popular vote to the Democratic ticket's 43.93%, thus winning the state's 11 electoral votes.[1]

2012 United States presidential election in Indiana
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
 
Nominee Mitt Romney Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Massachusetts Illinois
Running mate Paul Ryan Joe Biden
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,420,543 1,152,887
Percentage 54.13% 43.93%
County results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Indiana and North Carolina were the only two states Obama won in 2008 that flipped to the Republican column in 2012. Although Indiana normally leans Republican, in 2008 Obama had been the first Democrat to win Indiana since 1964, albeit by a narrow 1.03% margin. Unlike North Carolina, Indiana was not seriously contested again by the Obama campaign in 2012; consequently, Romney was able to carry it by a 10.2% margin and win 6 counties Obama won in 2008.

Obama carried Vigo County, home to Terre Haute, and at the time a noted bellwether; before 2020, it had voted for the winner of every presidential election all but twice since 1892. After 2012, demographic change and the rightward turn of exurban areas accelerated by the Trump era have made Vigo County generally uncompetitive to the present day.[2] As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time that Delaware, LaPorte, Perry, Porter, and Vigo counties have voted for a Democratic presidential candidate. Obama won nine counties compared to 83 for Romney, who won most rural areas of the state. Romney also performed well in the Indianapolis suburbs; Allen County, home of Fort Wayne; and Vanderburgh County, home of Evansville. As expected, Obama did better in urban, densely populated areas. Obama trounced Romney in Marion County, home of Indianapolis, as well as Lake County, home of Gary and East Chicago. Obama also for the most part did well in counties that contained major colleges, such as Monroe County, home of Indiana University Bloomington; St. Joseph County, home of the University of Notre Dame in South Bend; and Porter County, home of Valparaiso University.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Incumbent President Barack Obama ran unopposed, securing 221,466 votes.[3]

Republican primary

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The Republican primary took place on May 8, 2012.[4][5]

Indiana Republican primary, 2012[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Projected delegate count
AP CNN
 FOX
  Mitt Romney 410,635 64.61% 28 27
Ron Paul 98,487 15.50%
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 85,332 13.43%
Newt Gingrich (withdrawn) 41,135 6.47%
Unprojected delegates: 18 19 46
Total: 635,589 100.00% 46 46 46

General election

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Campaign

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Incumbent Obama did not visit Indiana, although First Lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and former President Bill Clinton stumped in the state. Meanwhile, the Romney campaign sensed victory in the state, and he visited Indiana several times.[7]

Polling

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Republican Nominee Mitt Romney won every pre-election poll conducted in the state by at least 5%, and often by double digits. The average of the final three polls had Romney leading Obama 51% to 43%.[8]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[9] Safe R (flip) November 6, 2012
CNN[10] Safe R (flip) November 6, 2012
New York Times[11] Lean R (flip) November 6, 2012
Washington Post[12] Safe R (flip) November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[13] Lean R (flip) November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Solid R (flip) November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[15] Solid R (flip) November 6, 2012

Results

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2012 United States presidential election in Indiana[16]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Willard M. Romney Paul D. Ryan 1,420,543 54.13% 11
Democratic Barack H. Obama (incumbent) Joseph R. Biden Jr. (incumbent) 1,152,887 43.93% 0
Libertarian Gary E. Johnson Jim Gray 50,111 1.91% 0
Green (write-in) Jill Stein (write-in) Cheri Honkala 625 0.02% 0
Constitution (write-in) Virgil Goode (write-in) Jim Clymer 290 0.01% 0
America's Party (write-in) Thomas Hoefling (write-in) Jonathan D. Ellis 35 0.00% 0
Socialist (write-in) Stewart Alexander (write-in) Alex Mendoza 17 0.00% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 10 0.00% 0
Unaffiliated (write-in) Jill Ann Reed (write-in) Tom Cary 8 0.00% 0
Independent (write-in) Randall Terry (write-in) Missy Smith 8 0.00% 0
Totals 2,624,534 100.00% 11

Following Romney's win in Indiana, The Indianapolis Star said that "Voters painted Indiana bright red on Tuesday- with a splash or so of blue" and that "voters also proved that while this state is conservative, it doesn't like to stray too far from the middle".[17]

By county

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County Mitt Romney
Republican 		Barack Obama
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 8,937 68.58% 3,806 29.21% 289 2.21% 5,131 39.37% 13,032
Allen 84,613 57.46% 60,036 40.77% 2,597 1.77% 24,577 16.69% 147,246
Bartholomew 18,083 61.52% 10,625 36.15% 684 2.33% 7,458 25.37% 29,392
Benton 2,329 65.09% 1,159 32.39% 90 2.52% 1,170 32.70% 3,578
Blackford 2,711 56.95% 1,927 40.48% 122 2.57% 784 16.47% 4,760
Boone 18,808 67.70% 8,328 29.98% 646 2.32% 10,480 37.72% 27,782
Brown 4,332 56.75% 3,060 40.08% 242 3.17% 1,272 16.67% 7,634
Carroll 4,999 64.01% 2,635 33.74% 176 2.25% 2,364 30.27% 7,810
Cass 8,443 59.62% 5,371 37.93% 347 2.45% 3,072 21.69% 14,161
Clark 25,450 53.83% 20,807 44.01% 1,021 2.16% 4,643 9.82% 47,278
Clay 7,096 65.67% 3,460 32.02% 249 2.31% 3,636 33.65% 10,805
Clinton 6,338 64.13% 3,308 33.47% 237 2.40% 3,030 30.66% 9,883
Crawford 2,421 52.75% 2,041 44.47% 128 2.78% 380 8.28% 4,590
Daviess 7,638 74.42% 2,437 23.74% 189 1.84% 5,201 50.68% 10,264
Dearborn 15,394 68.86% 6,528 29.20% 434 1.94% 8,866 39.66% 22,356
Decatur 7,119 68.94% 2,941 28.48% 267 2.58% 4,178 40.46% 10,327
DeKalb 10,587 64.71% 5,419 33.12% 354 2.17% 5,168 31.59% 16,360
Delaware 21,251 47.15% 22,654 50.26% 1,169 2.59% -1,403 -3.11% 45,074
Dubois 11,654 62.75% 6,522 35.12% 395 2.13% 5,132 27.63% 18,571
Elkhart 42,378 62.29% 24,399 35.87% 1,252 1.84% 17,979 26.42% 68,029
Fayette 5,045 57.09% 3,555 40.23% 237 2.68% 1,490 16.86% 8,837
Floyd 19,878 56.17% 14,812 41.85% 702 1.98% 5,066 14.32% 35,392
Fountain 4,664 65.59% 2,237 31.46% 210 2.95% 2,427 34.13% 7,111
Franklin 7,424 70.17% 2,909 27.50% 247 2.33% 4,515 42.67% 10,580
Fulton 5,317 65.43% 2,621 32.25% 188 2.32% 2,696 33.18% 8,126
Gibson 9,487 64.45% 4,928 33.48% 306 2.07% 4,559 30.97% 14,721
Grant 15,151 59.82% 9,589 37.86% 589 2.32% 5,562 21.96% 25,329
Greene 8,457 64.36% 4,350 33.10% 334 2.21% 4,107 31.26% 13,141
Hamilton 90,747 66.20% 43,796 31.95% 2,546 1.85% 46,951 34.25% 137,089
Hancock 22,796 69.41% 9,319 28.37% 728 2.22% 13,477 41.04% 32,843
Harrison 10,640 60.21% 6,607 37.39% 424 2.40% 4,033 22.82% 17,671
Hendricks 44,312 66.37% 21,112 31.62% 1,337 2.01% 23,200 34.75% 66,761
Henry 10,838 57.02% 7,613 40.05% 556 2.93% 3,225 16.97% 19,007
Howard 20,327 56.01% 15,135 41.70% 829 2.29% 5,192 14.31% 36,291
Huntington 10,862 68.76% 4,596 29.09% 339 2.15% 6,266 39.67% 15,797
Jackson 10,419 62.34% 5,838 34.93% 455 2.73% 4,581 27.41% 16,712
Jasper 7,955 61.57% 4,672 36.16% 293 2.27% 3,283 25.41% 12,920
Jay 4,645 58.79% 3,063 38.77% 193 2.44% 1,582 20.02% 7,901
Jefferson 7,096 53.94% 5,728 43.54% 332 2.52% 1,368 10.40% 13,156
Jennings 6,120 59.71% 3,821 37.28% 309 3.01% 2,299 22.43% 10,250
Johnson 39,513 68.02% 17,260 29.71% 1,319 2.27% 22,253 38.31% 58,092
Knox 9,612 63.47% 5,228 34.52% 305 2.01% 4,384 28.95% 15,145
Kosciusko 22,558 74.84% 6,862 22.77% 720 2.39% 15,696 52.07% 30,140
LaGrange 6,231 66.88% 2,898 31.11% 187 2.01% 3,333 35.77% 9,316
Lake 68,431 33.85% 130,897 64.75% 2,819 1.40% -62,466 -30.90% 202,147
LaPorte 18,615 42.62% 24,107 55.19% 959 2.19% -5,492 -12.57% 43,681
Lawrence 11,622 65.04% 5,779 32.34% 469 2.62% 5,843 32.70% 17,870
Madison 26,769 50.98% 24,407 46.48% 1,334 2.54% 2,362 4.50% 52,510
Marion 136,509 37.92% 216,336 60.10% 7,127 1.98% -79,827 -22.18% 359,972
Marshall 11,260 63.25% 6,137 34.48% 404 2.27% 5,123 28.77% 17,801
Martin 3,262 68.78% 1,351 28.48% 130 2.74% 1,911 40.30% 4,743
Miami 8,174 63.79% 4,222 32.95% 417 3.26% 3,952 30.84% 12,813
Monroe 22,481 39.29% 33,436 58.43% 1,306 2.28% -10,955 -19.14% 57,223
Montgomery 9,824 68.03% 4,271 29.58% 345 2.39% 5,553 38.45% 14,440
Morgan 19,591 69.17% 7,969 28.13% 765 2.70% 11,622 41.04% 28,325
Newton 3,291 58.02% 2,212 39.00% 169 2.98% 1,079 19.02% 5,672
Noble 10,680 65.63% 5,229 32.13% 364 2.24% 5,451 33.50% 16,273
Ohio 1,759 62.40% 994 35.26% 66 2.34% 765 27.14% 2,819
Orange 4,617 59.38% 2,939 37.80% 220 2.82% 1,678 21.58% 7,776
Owen 5,062 62.39% 2,823 34.80% 228 2.81% 2,239 27.59% 8,113
Parke 4,234 64.85% 2,110 32.32% 185 2.83% 2,124 32.53% 6,529
Perry 3,403 43.21% 4,316 54.81% 156 1.98% -913 -11.60% 7,875
Pike 3,627 61.20% 2,125 35.86% 174 2.94% 1,502 25.34% 5,926
Porter 34,406 46.94% 37,252 50.82% 1,645 2.24% -2,846 -3.88% 73,303
Posey 7,430 60.77% 4,533 37.08% 263 2.15% 2,897 23.69% 12,226
Pulaski 3,366 62.34% 1,899 35.17% 134 2.49% 1,467 27.17% 5,399
Putnam 9,005 65.12% 4,507 32.59% 317 2.29% 4,498 32.53% 13,829
Randolph 6,218 60.95% 3,769 36.94% 215 2.11% 2,449 24.01% 10,202
Ripley 7,484 67.94% 3,241 29.42% 290 2.64% 4,243 38.52% 11,015
Rush 4,633 65.94% 2,221 31.61% 172 2.45% 2,412 34.33% 7,026
Scott 4,539 52.05% 3,998 45.85% 183 2.10% 541 6.20% 8,720
Shelby 10,978 65.50% 5,359 31.97% 423 2.53% 5,619 33.53% 16,760
Spencer 5,515 56.60% 4,026 41.32% 203 2.08% 1,489 15.28% 9,744
St. Joseph 52,578 47.36% 56,460 50.86% 1,971 1.78% -3,882 -3.50% 111,009
Starke 4,738 54.03% 3,809 43.44% 222 2.53% 929 10.59% 8,769
Steuben 8,547 62.41% 4,853 35.44% 295 2.15% 3,694 26.97% 13,695
Sullivan 4,902 59.13% 3,191 38.49% 197 2.38% 1,711 20.64% 8,290
Switzerland 1,872 55.11% 1,437 42.30% 88 2.59% 435 12.81% 3,397
Tippecanoe 28,757 50.40% 26,711 46.81% 1,595 2.79% 2,046 3.59% 57,063
Tipton 4,773 64.74% 2,432 32.99% 168 2.27% 2,341 31.75% 7,373
Union 2,022 65.14% 1,018 32.80% 64 2.06% 1,004 32.34% 3,104
Vanderburgh 39,389 54.26% 31,725 43.71% 1,474 2.03% 7,664 10.55% 72,588
Vermillion 3,426 51.89% 2,979 45.12% 198 2.99% 447 6.77% 6,603
Vigo 19,369 48.42% 19,712 49.27% 924 2.31% -343 -0.85% 40,005
Wabash 8,644 67.03% 3,973 30.81% 278 2.16% 4,671 36.22% 12,895
Warren 2,377 62.55% 1,324 34.84% 99 2.61% 1,053 27.71% 3,800
Warrick 17,680 62.19% 10,181 35.81% 566 2.00% 7,499 26.38% 28,427
Washington 6,533 60.85% 3,909 36.41% 295 2.74% 2,624 24.44% 10,737
Wayne 14,321 56.21% 10,591 41.57% 565 2.22% 3,730 14.64% 25,477
Wells 9,256 71.46% 3,436 26.53% 260 2.01% 5,820 44.93% 12,952
White 5,970 60.09% 3,637 36.61% 328 3.30% 2,333 23.48% 9,935
Whitley 10,258 68.24% 4,420 29.40% 354 2.36% 5,838 38.84% 15,032
Totals 1,422,872 54.04% 1,154,275 43.84% 55,996 2.13% 268,597 10.20% 2,633,143
 
County flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Romney won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[18]

District Romney Obama Representative
1st 37.39% 61.19% Pete Visclosky
2nd 56.1% 42.14% Jackie Walorski
3rd 62.54% 35.7% Marlin Stutzman
4th 60.88% 36.87% Todd Rokita
5th 57.5% 40.7% Susan Brooks
6th 60.43% 37.28% Luke Messer
7th 35.35% 62.9% André Carson
8th 58.37% 39.61% Larry Bucshon
9th 57.17% 40.7% Todd Young

See also

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Sources

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  • "2012 presidential elector candidates (as of September 7, 2012)" (PDF). Secretary of State of Indiana. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 28, 2013.

References

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  1. ^ "2012 Presidential Election - Indiana". Politico. Retrieved November 22, 2012.
  2. ^ GALOFARO, CLAIRE. "The counties that predict presidential election winners didn't this year. Just look at Terre Haute, Indiana". chicagotribune.com. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
  3. ^ "Indiana Voters". indianavoters.in.gov. Retrieved April 22, 2024.
  4. ^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
  5. ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  6. ^ Secretary of State election results. June 5, 2012. Retrieved June 27, 2012.
  7. ^ "Hoosiers go for Romney; Obama fails to repeat his narrow win here in '08". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  8. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Polls - IN". uselectionatlas.org.
  9. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  10. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  11. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  12. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  13. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  14. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  15. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  16. ^ "2012 Presidential General Election Results". uselectionatlas.org.
  17. ^ "Analysis: Hoosiers back Republicans but want them in the middle". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  18. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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